（编辑 丛可心 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 12月24日，华勤技术在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，华勤技术始终高度重视研发能 力建设与技术创新，在研发端保持持续而稳健的投入，2025年前三季度研发费用合计46.20亿元，同比 增长23.7%，预计全年研发投入超过60亿元人民币。目前公司研发技术人员将近2万名，研发投入方向 主要是围绕3+N+3的产品布局以及满足业务增长的需要；同时，公司也会投入一些前瞻性的研发预研， 如Xlab在声学、光学、热学、射频等领域的研究；针对新技术和新产品方向如AI端侧、超节点、汽车电 子等方向都持续增加研发资源；机器人也是公司一个明确的投入方向，公司会继续保持稳健的投入；研 发是公司的核心竞争力，公司将持续加大研发投入，夯实技术护城河，实现可持续高质量发展。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东海证券发布研报称，2026年上半年电子行业大概率周期继续向上，结构性增长机 遇依然在AI服务器、AI端侧、设备材料等细分赛道；2026年下半年需要密切关注存储价格波动、AI高 投资高增长的持续性、需求复苏的持续性。 东海证券主要观点如下： 当前半导体行业整体周期向上，行业结构上以AI、存储、设备等细分赛道高增长为主 2026年上半年或大概率延续结构性高增长趋势，下半年需要关注需求的复苏力度与政策刺激。全球半导 体产业周期继续维持缓慢向上格局，需求端以AI服务器、AI端侧、智能穿戴、新能源车、机器人等产 业高增长为主，驱动半导体需求增长。全球半导体产品销售额2025年1-10月份累计同比为21.19%，硅片 出货面积2025Q1-Q3同比为4.99%，硅片销量2025年整体延续上升趋势。从产品价格看，多数产品底部 震荡回升，对终端需求更为敏感的存储模组价格2025年以来涨幅140-600%不等，存储芯片价格涨幅在 50-700%之间不等，存储的供需错配或大概率持续到2026年上半年。从库存来看，CPU、存储、模拟、 MCU的全球龙头标的库存水平普遍处于历史高位，2025Q2开始有所下降，库 ...

Group 1 - The article suggests that the A-share market has historically experienced short bear markets and long bull markets, with bear markets not exceeding one year, and significant profits expected from 2019-2021 and 2023-2025 [3] - The current market downturn has led to a 40% loss for market participants, with a notable decline in stock prices, particularly in the technology sector, which has seen a 30% drop [4] - The bear market of 2022 was characterized as highly structured, with high-dividend sectors, especially coal, performing well against the trend [5] Group 2 - The bull market from 2023-2025 is expected to be more structured than the previous one, with a focus on the technology sector, although the overall market performance may be less widespread [7] - The article anticipates that the current downturn will primarily affect the AI hardware-centric technology sector, while other sectors may experience limited declines, with high-dividend stocks potentially performing well [8] - A V-shaped recovery is anticipated, similar to the one seen in April 2022, but it is expected to occur after significant market declines and may be influenced by external factors such as Nvidia's market performance [9][10] Group 3 - The timing for a potential V-shaped recovery is projected to be around February, coinciding with earnings forecasts, which could signal a market turnaround [11] - The technology sector is expected to lead the recovery, particularly in areas related to AI applications, such as robotics and consumer electronics [12][13] - Despite the anticipated recovery, the article warns that further declines may follow, leading to a second low point before the bear market concludes [14]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning for the end of the year, suggesting that bank dividends are a preferred observation strategy if the market experiences a pause in volatility [4] - It highlights the need to wait for a renewed confidence in high-growth sectors over the next 2-3 years, particularly in technology and services [5][10] - The report reviews the market's performance, noting a significant increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, which has risen over 10% to above 3800 points since the mid-year strategy [6][9] Market Overview - The report indicates that the market may experience a phase of consolidation due to external factors such as weakening U.S. economic indicators and concerns over employment, which could lead to a risk-off sentiment affecting A-shares [6][9] - It notes that the market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with trading volumes not yet activated and sectors undergoing accelerated rotation [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a proactive approach to market conditions, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, particularly in real estate, resource commodities, and consumer sentiment [11][12] - It recommends monitoring high-growth sectors that are difficult to disprove, such as storage, domestic computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while waiting for a consensus on performance [12] Fund Flow Analysis - The report discusses the potential for fund managers to reduce positions as the year-end approaches, indicating a trend towards profit-taking [13] - It highlights that leverage funds are still flowing in but at a slower pace, suggesting a need to watch for a potential slowdown in inflows [13][28] Calendar Effect Insights - The report analyzes the calendar effect, noting that the market generally trends upward in early November but may weaken following economic meetings [14][31] - It provides insights into market performance across different styles and sectors, indicating a shift towards dividend and quality stocks post-meeting [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The year 2025 may witness a profit turning point for the industry, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvement [4] - The AI sector is leading in performance, with revenue and profit growth rates for AI applications and terminals being notably high [42] Summary by Sections 1. Profitability and Cash Flow - In 2024, the computer industry achieved a revenue of 1,156.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 48.97% to 14.44 billion yuan [11][9] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 261.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.13%, and a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, up 230.22% [15][12] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 25.12% and 1.25%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [23][24] - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin and net profit margin improved to 21.86% and 1.01%, respectively [24][28] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 71.25 billion yuan, a 7.09% increase year-on-year, while Q1 2025 showed a cash flow of -30.48 billion yuan, improving by 39.61% year-on-year [33][33] 2. AI Sector Performance - In 2024, the revenue growth rates for AI terminals and applications were 25.72% and 12.40%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 19.23% and 24.84% [42] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rates for AI terminals and applications were 27.74% and 13.77%, with net profit growth rates of 37.86% and 15.91% [42] 3. Institutional Holdings and Valuation - As of Q1 2025, the proportion of computer funds held by institutions was 3.11%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points [77] - The computer index (Shenwan) had a PE ratio of 81.54 and a PS ratio of 3.18 as of April 30, 2025, indicating potential for valuation improvement [80][80] - The market performance of the computer industry ranked sixth among 31 sectors from January 1 to April 30, 2025, with a cumulative increase of 2.35% [77]