记者丨 庞华玮 编辑丨姜诗蔷 临近年底，A股在4000点关口反复震荡，市场风格骤然生变。 前期领涨的科技"小登"板块 （如电子、计算机、通信等）出现显著回调，而煤炭、银行、钢铁等周期"中登"板块则涨幅 领先。 鲜明的风格切换，让市场热议一个话题：面临年底业绩考核与排名压力，公募基金经理们是 否正在大规模调仓换股？ 21世纪经济报道记者采访调查发现，年底基金经理的调仓行为并非铁板一块，而是在长期考 核与短期压力、坚守风格与顺势而为之间展开一场复杂博弈。 总体来看，年底基金经理的调 仓行为是分化的：有的在"高切低"锁定收益，有的在坚守甚至加仓看好的成长股，还有险资 可能在逆向操作。 "高切低"现象引调仓猜测 进入四季度，A股市场的画风突变，"高切低"（即从高位板块向低位板块切换）成为盘面最显 著的特征。 此前一路高歌猛进的科技成长板块（被市场戏称为"小登"，如电子、计算机、通信、传媒 等）集体陷入深度回调。 截至11月18日，申万一级行业指数中，电子板块四季度以来跌幅近8%，传媒、计算机跌幅均 超5%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，一度被市场遗忘的周期板块（如煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、银 行等）则强势逆袭，煤炭、石油石化板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style shift as fund managers face year-end performance assessments, leading to a "high cut low" strategy where funds are reallocating from high-performing technology sectors to undervalued cyclical sectors like coal, banking, and steel [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The technology sector, previously leading the market, has seen a notable decline, with the electronic sector down nearly 8% and both media and computer sectors down over 5% since the beginning of the fourth quarter [2] - In contrast, cyclical sectors such as coal and oil have surged, with both sectors gaining over 11%, while banking and steel sectors have increased by more than 7% [2] - There is a clear trend of capital outflow from high-performing technology stocks into lower-valued sectors, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] Group 2: Fund Manager Behavior - Fund managers are engaging in a complex game of balancing long-term investment strategies with short-term performance pressures, leading to varied approaches to year-end reallocation [1][3] - The "high cut low" strategy is primarily aimed at locking in profits and managing rankings, with fund managers reducing exposure to high-flying tech stocks while increasing positions in undervalued assets [3][4] - Some fund managers choose to maintain their positions in technology stocks, believing that recent declines are merely profit-taking rather than a sign of a market downturn [4][5] Group 3: Institutional Investor Actions - Insurance funds are also adjusting their strategies, often focusing on stability in the fourth quarter due to their annual performance assessments, which differ from public funds [8][9] - Some insurance institutions are taking advantage of the market's shift by increasing their positions in growth stocks while others are moving towards value stocks [9][10] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market may experience increased volatility as it prepares for a potential transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market in 2026, with opportunities across both technology and traditional sectors [11][12] - The investment strategy is shifting towards a "rebalancing" approach, focusing on both cyclical sectors and undervalued technology stocks, aiming for a balanced portfolio to mitigate risks [11][12]

在最近的一年多时间里，中国"大模型六小虎"几乎无一不在经历着相似的阵痛： ·通用大模型底座的故事难以再吸引资本继续投入，融资节奏明显放缓； ·C端收费难，商业化压力较大，更多转型ToB和ToG； ·战略及业务几经调整，带来的高管动荡，人事变更频繁。 内外震荡之下，连"六小虎"这个称号都鲜有人再提及——大模型创业领域的风，像是一阵龙卷风，来得快，去得也快。 据媒体报道，仅在今年上半年，智谱、MiniMax、零一万物等5家大模型公司被曝出至少12位高管离职，包括智谱前首席运营官张帆、MiniMax商业化合 伙人兼副总裁魏伟等。 这些离职的独角兽高管，有的跳槽去了字节跳动等大厂，有的暂未披露就业动向，还有的选择了再次创业。 在这其中，离职的高管创业者往往受到业界的关注，基于IT桔子数据库和公开资料，我们做了以下盘点。 | 大樓型車 | 创业者 | FF / title | SUNNING | SINDE | 襄垣 | 有无公开融 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 角兽公司 | 姓名 | | ​​​ | | | 资&投资方 | | 智谱 Al | 张帆 | ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3940 | -0.81 | 2.61 | -1.57 | | 深证综指 | 2486 | -1.04 | 3.71 | -1.26 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.53 | 1.15 | 17.53 | | 中盘指数 | -1.16 | 1.45 | 26.1 | | 小盘指数 | -0.94 | 4.27 | 23.91 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广告营销 | 3.99 | 15.01 | 16.32 | | 数字媒体 | 3.41 | 5.75 | 10.21 | | 互联网电商 | 2.28 | -0.02 | 7.06 | | 渔业 | 2.02 | 20.85 | 26.74 | | ...

近期，中信证券、中金公司、国泰海通证券、中信建投证券、华泰证券、东吴证券等多家头部券商陆续 发布2026年A股投资策略报告，"慢牛行情"成为市场一致预期。 2026年，盈利驱动将成为新主角，投资机会也将从2025年的科技"一骑绝尘"转向2026年的多主线。 当中信证券提出"角逐全球定价权"，东吴证券给出"2026年6月风格切换窗口"，中信建投预警"科技板块 结构性回调"，各家券商在慢牛共识之时，正为投资者描绘一条与今年截然不同的投资路径。 慢牛格局延续 自2024年9月24日政策组合拳出台后，A股市场进入新一轮牛市行情。2025年中国股票在全球市场中表 现优异，上证指数创出十年新高。 多家券商指出，2026年市场有望在慢牛格局中进一步演绎，但驱动力的切换将成为核心特征。 中信证券鲜明提出，A股将迈向"低波动慢牛"，"全球敞口"成为其研判2026年A股的核心变量。其报告 指出："A股不仅是中国的A股，也是全球的A股。"数据显示，当前高境外敞口企业贡献了全A非金融板 块39%的利润和35%的市值，足以撬动整体行情。中信证券认为，未来A股基本面需置于全球需求视角 下审视，中企在全球价值链中的份额优势正转化为定价权， ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3][4] Market Outlook - Following the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, the A-share market has entered a new bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2] - Securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key feature being the shift in driving forces [3][4] Driving Forces - The driving force is expected to shift from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4] - Estimates suggest that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement turning points [4] Investment Strategies - Major securities firms highlight three main investment lines: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [9][11][13] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a focus on performance rather than concepts, particularly in application breakthroughs [10] - The trend of Chinese enterprises expanding internationally is seen as a significant configuration clue, with a focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and electric grid equipment [12] Market Style Rotation - The potential for a style switch from "growth" to "value" around June 2026 is a focal point of discussion among securities firms [7][8] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [8][6] Resource Products - Resource products are anticipated to become a new main line following technology, driven by global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market has entered a new bull market since the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2]. - Major securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key characteristic being the shift in driving forces [3][4]. - CITIC Securities emphasizes that A-shares should be viewed from a global demand perspective, as Chinese companies' advantages in the global value chain are transforming into pricing power, forming the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market [3]. Group 2: Driving Forces - There is a general expectation among securities firms that the driving force for the market will shift from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4]. - CICC estimates that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement [4]. - Dongwu Securities notes that the overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares has ended a four-year downward cycle and is beginning to rebound, supported by economic reforms and improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 3: Investment Styles - The debate among securities firms centers on whether the market style will shift from "growth" to "value" in 2026, with Dongwu Securities identifying June 2026 as a potential key time for this transition [6][7]. - CICC suggests that the market style may become more balanced, as many cyclical industries approach supply-demand equilibrium [8]. - Guotai Junan recommends maintaining a focus on technology while also considering previously underperforming sectors such as real estate and consumer goods during the bull market [8]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Securities firms highlight three main investment themes: technology growth, Chinese companies going global, and cyclical resource products [9][10]. - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a shift in focus from concepts to performance, particularly in application breakthroughs [9]. - The trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is seen as a significant opportunity, with recommendations to focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and global pricing resources [10][11].

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，始于24年"924"行情的牛市还未结束，当前进入第二阶段， 驱动力从情绪面转向基本面。展望2026年，科技是主线，演绎路径从算力转向应用，关注AI眼镜、机 器人、智驾、AI编程、AI+生命科学等方向。牛市中期有风格轮动，阶段性关注前期滞涨的地产、券 商、白酒消费。此外，对于25年跑输幅度较大的红利资产，在金融资产荒的大背景下，仍能维持一定的 底仓配置敞口。 历史上牛市都有主线，从"煤飞色舞"、"移动互联"到"能源革命"、"AI 浪潮"。本轮牛市主线是科技，15 只千亿科技标的贡献全A 10%涨幅，中芯国际、海光信息、寒武纪贡献科创50半数涨幅。中美两国引领 AI产业，中国重广度、美国重深度，三分之一以上的国内硬科技企业仍处于成长期，相较美股企业利 润率提升空间充足。"Scaling Law"持续印证，大厂资本开支上修，产业趋势明确，"十五五"开局年，新 兴产业与未来产业受益于政策扶持全年维度有望形成超额。 国信证券认为，25年以来以光模块为代表的海外算力链已积累可观涨幅，26年重点关注应用端表现，具 体方向包括AI眼镜、机器人、智能驾驶、AI编程、AI+生物科技等。 国 ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The core conclusion indicates that the bull market initiated in 2024 is not over, transitioning into its second phase, with the driving force shifting from sentiment to fundamentals [6] - Technology is identified as the main theme, with a focus on AI glasses, robotics, intelligent driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [6][7] - The bull market is characterized by structural features, with "small assets" outperforming "old assets," and the market is currently in the explosive phase of the bull market [6][7] Group 2: Industry and Company Analysis - The restaurant industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to stable growth, with online channels becoming increasingly important [8][9] - Different restaurant formats have varying adaptability to delivery services, with beverages and fast food showing the highest adaptability [8][9] - A balanced approach between dine-in and delivery is crucial for restaurant brands to maintain brand recognition and profitability [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform the market" rating for the restaurant industry, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to consumer trends and optimize their cost-benefit ratios [11] - Specific recommendations include companies like Xiaocaiyuan, Guoquan, and Haidilao, while also suggesting attention to Meituan-W as a platform leader [11] Group 4: Company Financial Performance - Beike-W reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a total GTV of 736.7 billion RMB [15] - The adjusted net profit for Beike-W decreased by 28% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [15][16] - Yonyou Network's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.584 billion RMB, a 2.7% decline year-on-year, but showed a positive growth trend in Q3 [19][20]

Group 1 - The current bull market, which began with the "924" rally in 2024, is still ongoing and has entered its second phase, shifting from sentiment-driven to fundamentals-driven [2][6][9] - Technology is the main theme for 2026, with a focus on applications such as AI glasses, robotics, intelligent driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [2][4][71] - The market is experiencing style rotation, with attention on previously lagging sectors like real estate, brokerage, and liquor consumption, suggesting a new logic for traditional dividend stocks [2][4][14] Group 2 - The bull market is characterized by three phases: nurturing, explosive, and frenzied, with the current phase being explosive, similar to the "519" market [5][6][9] - The recovery of corporate ROE and contract liabilities, along with upward revisions in profit expectations, indicate a solidifying fundamental backdrop for the market [2][10][11] - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, with a shift from long-term deposits to more liquid forms, supporting micro liquidity in the market [27][29][30] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant contribution of major technology stocks to the overall market performance, with 15 large-cap tech stocks accounting for a 10% increase in the total A-share market [2][67] - The "small登" assets have significantly outperformed "old登" assets, with a 189% increase in the "small登" stock portfolio since 2025, compared to just 2% for "old登" stocks [23][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Scaling Law" in AI development, indicating a robust demand for computational power and applications in the tech sector [101][105]