中信证券研报指出，随着强化学习大幅提升模型编程能力，AI编程成为最快落地Agent场景。研报认 为，AI编程行业空间当前约30亿美元，2030年有望达230亿美元，远期潜在空间近7000亿美元。当前 CR3已超过70%，市场"模型吞噬应用"观点并不全面。行业通过按量付费模式已初步实现20%-30%毛利 率，结合数据中心UE测算，模型API降价空间充足，将增厚Coding应用毛利。建议重点关注海外AI编程 龙头、国内中小公司及互联网巨头。（中信证券研究） ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style shift as fund managers navigate year-end performance pressures, leading to a mixed approach in portfolio adjustments, with some opting for "high-cut low" strategies while others maintain their positions in growth stocks [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a notable change in momentum, with technology sectors experiencing a deep correction while cyclical sectors like coal, banking, and steel have surged [4][5]. - As of November 18, the electronic sector has dropped nearly 8% in Q4, while cyclical sectors have seen gains exceeding 11% [4][5]. - Institutional behavior is influencing this market dichotomy, with fund managers facing year-end performance evaluations leading to increased volatility [5][6]. Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are generally engaging in "high-cut low" strategies to lock in profits and manage rankings, often reducing exposure to high-flying tech stocks while increasing positions in undervalued sectors [5][6][9]. - Some fund managers, however, choose to maintain their positions in technology stocks, believing that recent corrections are merely profit-taking rather than the end of a tech bull market [7][8]. - The assessment of fund managers' performance is increasingly based on longer-term metrics, reducing the necessity for year-end adjustments [8][9]. Group 3: Insurance Capital Movements - Insurance funds are also adjusting their strategies, with some institutions increasing their positions in growth stocks while others shift towards value stocks to stabilize their portfolios [10][12]. - The behavior of insurance capital, which is often evaluated on a different timeline, may contribute to the recent market style changes [10][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may experience a structural transition from a sector-specific bull market to a broader bull market, with opportunities across both technology and traditional sectors [14][15]. - The investment strategy is shifting towards a balanced approach, focusing on both cyclical and growth sectors to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style shift as fund managers face year-end performance assessments, leading to a "high cut low" strategy where funds are reallocating from high-performing technology sectors to undervalued cyclical sectors like coal, banking, and steel [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The technology sector, previously leading the market, has seen a notable decline, with the electronic sector down nearly 8% and both media and computer sectors down over 5% since the beginning of the fourth quarter [2] - In contrast, cyclical sectors such as coal and oil have surged, with both sectors gaining over 11%, while banking and steel sectors have increased by more than 7% [2] - There is a clear trend of capital outflow from high-performing technology stocks into lower-valued sectors, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] Group 2: Fund Manager Behavior - Fund managers are engaging in a complex game of balancing long-term investment strategies with short-term performance pressures, leading to varied approaches to year-end reallocation [1][3] - The "high cut low" strategy is primarily aimed at locking in profits and managing rankings, with fund managers reducing exposure to high-flying tech stocks while increasing positions in undervalued assets [3][4] - Some fund managers choose to maintain their positions in technology stocks, believing that recent declines are merely profit-taking rather than a sign of a market downturn [4][5] Group 3: Institutional Investor Actions - Insurance funds are also adjusting their strategies, often focusing on stability in the fourth quarter due to their annual performance assessments, which differ from public funds [8][9] - Some insurance institutions are taking advantage of the market's shift by increasing their positions in growth stocks while others are moving towards value stocks [9][10] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market may experience increased volatility as it prepares for a potential transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market in 2026, with opportunities across both technology and traditional sectors [11][12] - The investment strategy is shifting towards a "rebalancing" approach, focusing on both cyclical sectors and undervalued technology stocks, aiming for a balanced portfolio to mitigate risks [11][12]

Core Insights - The "Big Model Six Little Tigers" in China are facing significant challenges, including a slowdown in capital investment, difficulties in monetizing C-end services, and frequent executive turnover due to strategic adjustments [1][3] Group 1: Executive Departures and New Ventures - In the first half of this year, at least 12 executives from five major model companies, including Zhipu and MiniMax, have left their positions, indicating a trend of high turnover in the industry [1] - Zhang Fan, former COO of Zhipu, has launched a new venture called Yuanli Intelligent (YooLee.AI), focusing on business reinforcement learning [3][8] - Dai Zonghong, former VP of technology at Lingyi Wanhua, has founded Jidian Qiyuan, an AI infrastructure cloud computing company, after the strategic restructuring of his previous employer [10][16] Group 2: Startups from Baichuan Intelligent - Baichuan Intelligent has seen a significant number of its core team members leave to start their own companies, with four notable entrepreneurs emerging from this trend [17] - Jiao Ke, a former co-founder, has established Laifu, focusing on AI radio services [22] - Chen Weipeng, another former co-founder, has launched Yongyue Intelligent, which aims to optimize programming processes through intelligent technology [22] - Liu Xiaoyi, previously an AI product owner, has created OpenCreator, a platform for AI content creation [22][23] Group 3: MiniMax and Kimi's Spin-offs - Feng Lei, former product head at MiniMax, has founded Mars Electric Wave, which offers an AI podcast generation tool called ListenHub, securing millions in angel funding from Sequoia China [24][28] - Ming Chaoping, former head of Noisee at Kimi, has started a company called Xinyan Yima, focusing on AI coding and targeting international markets, with rapid fundraising success [29][36][38] Group 4: Industry Trends and Opportunities - Recent entrepreneurs from major model companies are focusing on three main areas: AI Agents, AI Coding, and AI audio/video applications, as they seek to avoid redundant development and target clear market needs [39] - The current environment presents limited opportunities for new ventures, but successful navigation could lead to the emergence of the next unicorn in the industry [40]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3940 | -0.81 | 2.61 | -1.57 | | 深证综指 | 2486 | -1.04 | 3.71 | -1.26 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.53 | 1.15 | 17.53 | | 中盘指数 | -1.16 | 1.45 | 26.1 | | 小盘指数 | -0.94 | 4.27 | 23.91 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广告营销 | 3.99 | 15.01 | 16.32 | | 数字媒体 | 3.41 | 5.75 | 10.21 | | 互联网电商 | 2.28 | -0.02 | 7.06 | | 渔业 | 2.02 | 20.85 | 26.74 | | ...

近期，中信证券、中金公司、国泰海通证券、中信建投证券、华泰证券、东吴证券等多家头部券商陆续 发布2026年A股投资策略报告，"慢牛行情"成为市场一致预期。 2026年，盈利驱动将成为新主角，投资机会也将从2025年的科技"一骑绝尘"转向2026年的多主线。 当中信证券提出"角逐全球定价权"，东吴证券给出"2026年6月风格切换窗口"，中信建投预警"科技板块 结构性回调"，各家券商在慢牛共识之时，正为投资者描绘一条与今年截然不同的投资路径。 慢牛格局延续 自2024年9月24日政策组合拳出台后，A股市场进入新一轮牛市行情。2025年中国股票在全球市场中表 现优异，上证指数创出十年新高。 多家券商指出，2026年市场有望在慢牛格局中进一步演绎，但驱动力的切换将成为核心特征。 中信证券鲜明提出，A股将迈向"低波动慢牛"，"全球敞口"成为其研判2026年A股的核心变量。其报告 指出："A股不仅是中国的A股，也是全球的A股。"数据显示，当前高境外敞口企业贡献了全A非金融板 块39%的利润和35%的市值，足以撬动整体行情。中信证券认为，未来A股基本面需置于全球需求视角 下审视，中企在全球价值链中的份额优势正转化为定价权， ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3][4] Market Outlook - Following the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, the A-share market has entered a new bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2] - Securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key feature being the shift in driving forces [3][4] Driving Forces - The driving force is expected to shift from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4] - Estimates suggest that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement turning points [4] Investment Strategies - Major securities firms highlight three main investment lines: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [9][11][13] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a focus on performance rather than concepts, particularly in application breakthroughs [10] - The trend of Chinese enterprises expanding internationally is seen as a significant configuration clue, with a focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and electric grid equipment [12] Market Style Rotation - The potential for a style switch from "growth" to "value" around June 2026 is a focal point of discussion among securities firms [7][8] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [8][6] Resource Products - Resource products are anticipated to become a new main line following technology, driven by global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market has entered a new bull market since the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2]. - Major securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key characteristic being the shift in driving forces [3][4]. - CITIC Securities emphasizes that A-shares should be viewed from a global demand perspective, as Chinese companies' advantages in the global value chain are transforming into pricing power, forming the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market [3]. Group 2: Driving Forces - There is a general expectation among securities firms that the driving force for the market will shift from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4]. - CICC estimates that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement [4]. - Dongwu Securities notes that the overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares has ended a four-year downward cycle and is beginning to rebound, supported by economic reforms and improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 3: Investment Styles - The debate among securities firms centers on whether the market style will shift from "growth" to "value" in 2026, with Dongwu Securities identifying June 2026 as a potential key time for this transition [6][7]. - CICC suggests that the market style may become more balanced, as many cyclical industries approach supply-demand equilibrium [8]. - Guotai Junan recommends maintaining a focus on technology while also considering previously underperforming sectors such as real estate and consumer goods during the bull market [8]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Securities firms highlight three main investment themes: technology growth, Chinese companies going global, and cyclical resource products [9][10]. - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a shift in focus from concepts to performance, particularly in application breakthroughs [9]. - The trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is seen as a significant opportunity, with recommendations to focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and global pricing resources [10][11].

Group 1 - The current bull market, which began with the "924" trend in 2024, is not over and is now entering its second phase, shifting from sentiment-driven to fundamentals-driven [1] - The complete bull market consists of three phases: incubation, explosion, and frenzy, with the current phase resembling the 519 market, characterized by structural features where "small assets" outperform "large assets" [1] - By 2026, the driving force of the bull market will transition to fundamentals, with steady recovery in ROE and improved profit expectations for listed companies [1] Group 2 - Technology is the main theme of the current bull market, with significant contributions from 15 major tech stocks accounting for a 10% increase in the overall market, particularly from companies like SMIC and Cambrian [2] - The AI industry is led by both China and the US, with over one-third of domestic hard-tech companies still in the growth phase, indicating substantial profit margin improvement potential compared to US counterparts [2] - Key focus areas for 2026 include application performance in AI glasses, robotics, smart driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [2] Group 3 - Mid-bull market often sees style rotation, with a focus on undervalued sectors such as liquor (high dividend), brokerage (high growth), and real estate (leading stock prices) [3] - For dividend assets that underperformed in 2025, maintaining a certain level of exposure is advisable due to their ability to withstand market fluctuations and the demand for dividend yields that exceed existing mortgage rates [3]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The core conclusion indicates that the bull market initiated in 2024 is not over, transitioning into its second phase, with the driving force shifting from sentiment to fundamentals [6] - Technology is identified as the main theme, with a focus on AI glasses, robotics, intelligent driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [6][7] - The bull market is characterized by structural features, with "small assets" outperforming "old assets," and the market is currently in the explosive phase of the bull market [6][7] Group 2: Industry and Company Analysis - The restaurant industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to stable growth, with online channels becoming increasingly important [8][9] - Different restaurant formats have varying adaptability to delivery services, with beverages and fast food showing the highest adaptability [8][9] - A balanced approach between dine-in and delivery is crucial for restaurant brands to maintain brand recognition and profitability [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform the market" rating for the restaurant industry, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to consumer trends and optimize their cost-benefit ratios [11] - Specific recommendations include companies like Xiaocaiyuan, Guoquan, and Haidilao, while also suggesting attention to Meituan-W as a platform leader [11] Group 4: Company Financial Performance - Beike-W reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a total GTV of 736.7 billion RMB [15] - The adjusted net profit for Beike-W decreased by 28% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [15][16] - Yonyou Network's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.584 billion RMB, a 2.7% decline year-on-year, but showed a positive growth trend in Q3 [19][20]