不过也有机构看好港股互联网应用端的"高赔率"机会。东吴策略陈刚团队表示：目前泛AI方向中，有较多细分由于短期催化有限、多头叙事 累积不足而处于相对低位，后续一旦有超预期产业事件如技术新突破、出圈新单品等出现累积多头叙事、凝聚资金共识，则相关方向赔率可 观。故我们将下游AI应用视为一种"看涨期权"，左侧进行积极布局。 港股市场AI应用相关标的： 12月22日，市场情绪回暖，A股硬件设备方向再度爆发，中际旭创（300308）、新易盛（300502）、天孚通信（300394）、工业富联 （601138）、胜宏科技（300476）等AI硬件巨头全天成交额占据全市场TOP5。年初至今，中际旭创、新易盛股价累计涨幅超400%，胜宏科 技累计涨幅超600%。 | 所属行业 申万一级行业 名称 | | 现价 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | 成交额 ▼ | 总市值1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硬件设备 | 通信 中际旭创 | 617.50 c 45.80 8.01% | | 402.48% | 238.98亿 | 6861亿 | | 硬件设备 | 通信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation with a notable rotation of hot sectors, indicating a clear trend of style rebalancing, particularly between cyclical and technology growth sectors [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The cyclical sectors such as chemicals, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics have shown strength, while the previously leading artificial intelligence sector is undergoing high-level consolidation [1] - The current market environment suggests a need for investors to focus on the phase rebalancing between technology and cyclical styles due to significant performance improvements in cyclical products reported in Q3 [2] - The overall market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern as the main market narrative remains centered around the AI industry, which is crucial for breaking through index resistance [1][3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend a "cyclical + technology" allocation strategy to balance risk and return in the current market [2] - Investment opportunities are identified in cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, agriculture, and new consumption, alongside a focus on AI software applications and innovative pharmaceuticals in the technology sector [3] - The emphasis is placed on sectors benefiting from policy support and market recovery, particularly in the brokerage sector, which is seen as having a phase-specific allocation opportunity [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI narrative has influenced the slope of market trends rather than the overall trend itself, with a focus on the stability of the corporate overseas environment and AI infrastructure investment [2] - The A-share market is expected to maintain resilience supported by stable economic and policy expectations, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, and new consumption [3] - The market is preparing for a new upward trend, with structural highlights in the third-quarter reports indicating fundamental resilience [3] Group 2 - The A-share market is likely to remain in a volatile state, with long-term upward trends in technology growth facing short-term fundamental concerns [4] - There are three parts of mid-term returns yet to be realized, including cyclical improvement, asset allocation towards equities, and China's increasing global influence [5] - November is favorable for small-cap and thematic investments, with a focus on themes related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" such as AI applications and new materials [7] Group 3 - The recent market rally is seen as a preemptive move for a cyclical recovery year, with price increases concentrated in sectors like coal, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy [11] - Short-term attention is drawn to the power equipment sector and chemicals, as the market shifts towards high-certainty products [12] - The A-share investment focus is shifting towards strategic upstream industries and technology applications under the "anti-involution" theme [13]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased volatility, but the success rate of timing strategies is low due to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital, with steady absolute return funds entering the market [1] - The AI narrative is influencing various sectors, including TMT, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, which together account for over 60% of institutional holdings [1] - The focus for portfolio adjustment should be on selecting stocks with upward trends in ROE rather than avoiding the AI narrative [1] Group 2 - A-shares are expected to maintain resilience supported by stable economic and policy expectations, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, and new consumption [2] - The market is likely to experience rapid rotation of hotspots, with sectors like electric grid equipment, lithium batteries, and chemicals showing upward movement [3] - The long-term trend for A-shares remains upward, driven by structural improvements in the economy and increased global influence [4] Group 3 - November is historically favorable for small-cap and thematic investments, with a focus on AI applications, robotics, and new materials [5] - The market is expected to enter a major upward phase from November to December, driven by policy and liquidity improvements [6] - The upcoming spring market may start earlier than usual, with a focus on growth-oriented sectors [7] Group 4 - Recent price increases in the market are seen as a preemptive move for a cyclical recovery next year, particularly in sectors like coal, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy [8] - Short-term attention is on power equipment and chemicals, with a shift towards high-certainty stocks as the market rebalances [9] - The overall performance of A-shares is improving, with a focus on strategic industries and technology applications [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a phase of style rebalancing, with a focus on "cyclical + technology" strategies due to significant performance improvements in cyclical sectors and the need for technology stocks to digest previous gains [1][2] - Institutions suggest that while cyclical sectors show strong performance, the long-term trend remains in favor of technology growth, particularly driven by AI narratives [1][2] - The current market environment indicates that the stability of the corporate overseas environment and AI industry trends are crucial variables influencing various sectors, including TMT, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and electric new energy [1] Group 2 - Analysts emphasize the importance of recognizing the cyclical sectors' performance improvements as seen in Q3 reports, while also noting that technology growth remains the market's main focus [2][3] - The recommendation for investors is to adopt a "barbell strategy" that balances risks and returns by investing in both cyclical and technology sectors [2] - There is a suggestion to explore investment opportunities in cyclical sectors like steel, chemicals, and new consumption, alongside technology applications in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI narrative has influenced the slope of market trends rather than the overall trend itself, with a focus on the stability of the corporate overseas environment and AI infrastructure investment in the context of US-China relations [2] - The current market volatility is attributed to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital, with steady absolute return funds entering the market, reducing the effectiveness of traditional aggressive timing strategies [2] - The TMT sector, along with materials like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, has seen price increases influenced by the AI narrative, with these sectors comprising over 60% of institutional holdings [2] Group 2 - A-shares are expected to maintain resilience supported by stable economic and policy expectations, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, and new consumption [3] - The market is anticipated to be in a phase of rapid rotation among themes, with attention on sectors like electric grid equipment, lithium batteries, and chemicals, reflecting a gradual confirmation of the anti-involution theme [4] - The market is preparing for a new upward trend, with structural highlights emerging from the third-quarter reports of listed companies, emphasizing high-quality development and technological self-reliance [4][5] Group 3 - The overall A-share market may remain in a fluctuating state, with long-term upward trends in technology growth facing short-term fundamental concerns [6] - November is seen as favorable for small-cap and thematic investments, with historical data indicating a higher probability of small-cap style gains during this month [7] - The recent price increase in the market is viewed as a preemptive move for a cyclical recovery year, with key sectors including coal, non-ferrous metals, and parts of the chemical industry being highlighted for potential investment [10] Group 4 - The A-share market's investment focus is shifting towards three main lines: AI applications, anti-involution strategies, and brokerage opportunities, with an emphasis on sectors like robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals [12] - The market is expected to experience a structural rebalancing, with a focus on high-certainty products as the industry transitions from reliance on US-based infrastructure to China's advantages in power and manufacturing [11] - The upcoming spring market is likely to start earlier than usual, with a focus on growth-oriented sectors driven by AI and domestic policy initiatives [9]

Core Insights - The report indicates that since September, the small-cap sectors represented by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 have entered a period of consolidation, while technology-weighted stocks have seen strong gains. Recently, technology stocks have begun to adjust, which is viewed as a correction of strong stocks, characteristic of the later stage of market consolidation. As this period of fluctuation approaches its end, small-cap stocks are expected to stabilize first [1][3][4]. Trend Dimension - The current market is in a small-cap outperformance cycle, which began in 2022 with the rise of the AI industry. This cycle is expected to last 5-7 years, indicating a shift in market style driven by the transition between traditional and emerging industries [2][11]. Wave Dimension - From a wave perspective, small-cap stocks have significantly underperformed technology-weighted stocks since September. The CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 have lagged behind the STAR 50 and ChiNext 50 indices. As technology stocks enter a correction phase, small-cap stocks are anticipated to stabilize as the market moves towards the end of the consolidation period. Additionally, historical data suggests that small-cap stocks have a higher probability of outperforming the broader market in November, following the release of Q3 reports [3][15][23]. Industry Dimension - Potential directions for small-cap technology stocks during the October consolidation period include AI applications (both software and hardware), the expansion of domestic computing power, and the proliferation of innovative drugs. For AI applications, there are notable advancements in large models and vertical applications, while hardware applications are led by robotics and innovations such as autonomous driving and AI glasses. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring technological advancements and new product developments in these areas [4][25][26]. - The report also highlights that leading companies in AI chips, wafer manufacturing, storage, and semiconductor equipment have already seen gains, suggesting that there are opportunities for small-cap stocks to benefit from ongoing technological and market developments. In the innovative drug sector, if the upward trend in market conditions continues, small-cap stocks are expected to follow suit [25][26].

丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 科技内部若高切低，关注什么方向？——"重估 牛"系列之 AI 主线 报告要点 [Table_Summary] AI 软件应用端尚未迎来爆发。从产业端来看，AI 软件应用领域的产业进展暂时落后于上游基础 层和技术层，等待爆款应用的出现。从财务端数据来看，AI 应用端营收有所增长，但盈利仍不 稳定。从涨跌幅来看，年初至今软件指数相对硬件指数跑输，当前位置较低。后续 TMT 内部行 业轮动有望持续，低位 TMT 板块或将受益。政策端来看，《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的 意见》发布，支持人工智能应用产业高速发展。产业端来看，随着互联网巨头资本开支持续加 速推进，自研芯片，AI 应用爆款产品有望加速落地。建议持续关注 AI 应用方向。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 [Table_Summary2] AI 软件应用端尚未迎来爆发 从产业端来看，AI 软件应用领域的产业进展暂时落后于上游基础层和技术层，等待爆款应用的 出现。人工智能产业链分为基 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese venture capital market is at a turning point, characterized by a structural transformation and a focus on capturing opportunities amidst uncertainty [1] - The "WAVES New Era 2025" conference gathered top investors and innovators to discuss AI technology, globalization, and value reassessment [1] Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly focusing on early-stage investments in AI, with many firms actively participating in seed and angel rounds [4][5][6] - The emergence of younger founders and the rapid pace of technological change in AI are reshaping the investment landscape [9][10] Market Dynamics - The current AI startup environment is perceived as less crowded compared to previous tech waves, indicating potential for growth and innovation [33][35] - High valuations for AI startups are driven by competitive dynamics and the need for firms to position themselves within hot sectors [26][28] Investment Strategies - Investors emphasize the importance of understanding the unique backgrounds and capabilities of founders, particularly in the context of rapidly evolving technologies [14][16] - The traditional metrics for assessing product-market fit (PMF) are being reevaluated, with a shift towards more dynamic indicators that reflect the fast-paced nature of AI development [22][23] Future Outlook - The consensus among investors is that AI will continue to be a major driver of economic growth, suggesting that opportunities for startups will persist in the coming years [35] - Founders are encouraged to focus on practical execution and iterative development rather than getting caught up in long-term uncertainties [32][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry and recommends a strategic focus on AI software applications and related sectors [1][2][3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation driven by AI technology, highlighting the resurgence of market interest in AI themes and the potential for investment in the AI software application sector [1] - It identifies opportunities in the domestic AI computing power supply chain, particularly in cloud service providers, computing power leasing, and various hardware components [2] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing sustained interest, with a trend of expanding from structural components to electronic components, indicating potential for collaborative development within the electronics industry [3] - The report also notes the value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, driven by advancements in large model technology and the open-source movement [3] - The consumer electronics panel supply-demand dynamics are improving, with signs of price increases due to rising demand and supply-side adjustments [6] Summary by Sections AI Industry - Continued optimism regarding the growth potential of the AI industry, particularly in software applications and computing power supply chains [1][2] - Key companies mentioned include: 用友网络, 金蝶国际, 汉得信息, and others [1] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is expanding, with electronic architecture similar to that of intelligent driving systems [3] - Relevant companies include: 峰岹科技, 思瑞浦, and others [3] Internet Sector - The report highlights the ongoing value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, particularly for Tencent Holdings due to its diverse AI application scenarios [3] Consumer Electronics - The report suggests investment opportunities in the panel industry, with companies like TCL 科技, 彩虹股份, and 京东方 being highlighted [6]