Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of the domestic GPU market, highlighting procurement trends, competition, and the impact of government policies on domestic chip manufacturers [2]. Group 1: Procurement Trends - A major CSP company (referred to as A) has a procurement budget of 140 billion RMB for the year, with over 90 billion allocated for GPUs, indicating a significant investment in this area [3]. - The procurement is divided into domestic and overseas segments, with over 500 billion RMB planned for overseas purchases, primarily from NVIDIA, but delays in supply have led to a shift towards AMD's MI350 solution [4]. - Domestic procurement is heavily influenced by government policies, with initial plans to purchase over 20 billion RMB worth of NVIDIA products likely reduced to 6-7 billion RMB due to stricter approval processes [4]. Group 2: Domestic Chip Status - Domestic chips are primarily supported by companies like Cambricon and Ascend, with expectations for A to procure 120,000 to 130,000 Cambricon chips by 2025, amounting to a budget of around 8 billion RMB [6]. - Cambricon's performance expectations are tempered, with the company acknowledging that the anticipated orders may not materialize as previously rumored [6]. - Other domestic chip companies, such as Kunlun and Muxi, are in testing phases, with Kunlun showing promising sales and a revenue target of around 5 billion RMB for the year [7]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The GPU market is expected to benefit from new government policies, with the inclusion of GPUs in the "信创" (Xinchuang) initiative, which could lead to increased orders for domestic chips from state-owned enterprises [8]. - The upcoming 2025 list of approved products is anticipated to create significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers like Cambricon and Ascend [8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the GPU market is shifting, with domestic chips expected to dominate the inference segment, supported by government initiatives [9]. - Major cloud service providers may turn to renting out resources if they cannot fully utilize their GPU purchases, creating a new revenue stream for domestic chip manufacturers [9]. - By 2025, companies like Cambricon and Ascend are expected to offer their resources for external rental, contributing to a circular economy in cloud services [9].

Group 1 - The Johannesburg Auto Show, the largest automotive industry support event in Africa, opened on August 29, showcasing various Chinese automakers including Great Wall, Chery, BYD, and BAIC, focusing on their new energy vehicles (NEVs) [1][2] - Great Wall Motors presented models such as the Tank 300 modified version, Tank 500 blackened version, and Haval H6 GT PHEV, highlighting their comprehensive NEV product matrix in South Africa [1] - Chery showcased its electric mobility solutions featuring the Chery Super Hybrid (CSH) technology with models like the Tiggo 7 CSH and Tiggo 9 CSH, emphasizing efficiency, performance, and sustainability [1] Group 2 - BAIC pre-released its new SUV models B30 and B30e, which will be locally produced at the BAIC South Africa factory in Port Elizabeth [2] - BYD and GAC introduced pure electric vehicle models tailored for the South African market, promoting Chinese new energy solutions [2] - The Johannesburg Auto Show lasts for three days and is expected to attract over 150 automotive companies, parts manufacturers, and service providers [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report is expected to cause significant volatility in global stock markets, with options traders predicting a 100% chance of "super volatility news" impacting the market [1]. Group 1: Earnings Impact - Nvidia's earnings report is crucial for the continuation of the global stock market bull run, with Wall Street expecting a 48% year-over-year increase in earnings per share to $1.01 and a 54% increase in revenue to approximately $46.1 billion [5][6]. - The company's market capitalization is projected to experience a potential change of about $260 billion following the earnings announcement, which could influence the broader market direction [1][2]. - Analysts have raised their earnings expectations for Nvidia, with some predicting revenues as high as $55 billion for Q3, reflecting optimism about AI infrastructure demand [5][7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Volatility - The implied volatility surrounding Nvidia's stock is significant, with traders pricing in a potential 6% price movement post-earnings, which is lower than the long-term average of 7% [2][8]. - Nvidia's stock has added approximately $2 trillion in market value since early April, driven by strong performance and investor sentiment regarding AI [10][11]. - The upcoming earnings report is considered one of the largest risk factors for the market, surpassing other economic indicators such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8][12]. Group 3: China Market Concerns - Nvidia faces uncertainty regarding its sales in the Chinese market, particularly with the introduction of government regulations affecting AI chip sales [12][16]. - Analysts are divided on the revenue guidance from Nvidia concerning the Chinese market, highlighting a significant range in revenue forecasts for Q3 [13][16]. - The complexity of the regulatory environment in China adds to the unpredictability of Nvidia's earnings outlook, with potential implications for its stock performance and broader market trends [16][17].

Market Overview - Major indices showed a doji candlestick pattern, indicating potential volatility ahead, with a technical bias leaning towards a downward trend due to recent significant gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index did not reach new highs despite a strong performance from technology stocks, while the Shenzhen Component Index achieved a four-day upward streak, driven by semiconductor stocks and the Nvidia supply chain [1][3] - The ChiNext Index also reached a new rebound high, benefiting from the Nvidia supply chain, although it experienced a pullback in the afternoon [1] Nvidia Earnings Impact - Nvidia's earnings report is anticipated to have a significant impact on the market, with mixed expectations regarding whether it will exceed, meet, or fall short of projections [3] - The performance of the Nvidia supply chain stocks is crucial, as strong results could lead to further gains, while disappointing results may trigger a substantial correction in both Nvidia and related A-share stocks [3] Capital Flow Analysis - There was a notable outflow of capital, with over 900 billion yuan leaving the market by 2 PM, indicating a trend of net outflows over the past week [5] - The market's overall performance is suffering from a lack of positive capital inflow, with a significant number of stocks declining compared to those that rose [5] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors, particularly banks, are showing signs of weakness, and there is a concern that technology stocks may also face corrections after their recent strong performance [7] - The market is expected to see a rotation, with consumer sectors, particularly food and beverage, real estate, and renewable energy, potentially benefiting from the current market dynamics [9] Stock Highlights - The stock of Cambrian (寒武纪) briefly surpassed Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) to become the "king of A-shares," reflecting a significant year-to-date increase of over 120% [3] - The AI computing chip sector and related stocks are showing positive momentum, while other sectors like rare earth materials and liquid metals are experiencing declines [8]

Core Insights - DeepSeek is advancing towards a "computing power freedom" path with its V3.1 release, optimizing the use of NVIDIA GPU power while adapting to domestic chips, potentially reducing memory usage by up to 75% [4][27]. - The V3.1 upgrade enhances DeepSeek's efficiency in reasoning and tool usage, positioning it competitively against international AI firms [8][9]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - DeepSeek V3.1 introduces a hybrid reasoning architecture, supporting both thinking and non-thinking modes, which improves efficiency and reduces token consumption [6][8]. - The model has undergone extensive retraining with an additional 840 billion tokens, achieving a context length of 128k, which enhances performance while lowering costs [8][9]. - The API Beta interface now supports strict function calling, improving reliability and usability in enterprise applications, making it easier to replace existing solutions like GPT/Claude [9]. Group 2: Market Positioning - DeepSeek's V3.1 is a significant milestone in its transition to the Agent era, allowing for better integration into the enterprise market, particularly with support for Anthropic API formats [9][30]. - The shift towards using UE8M0 FP8 scale data format allows DeepSeek to efficiently run large models on domestic AI chips, reducing reliance on imported GPUs [12][27]. - The potential decline in demand for NVIDIA's H20/B30 chips in China is noted, as domestic chips become more capable of handling large models with the new low-precision training methods [29][30]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA's long-standing use of low-precision formats has set a benchmark, but DeepSeek's innovations may accelerate the development of domestic chips, creating a more independent AI ecosystem in China [16][32]. - Despite the advancements by DeepSeek, NVIDIA retains advantages in bandwidth, interconnectivity, and a robust software ecosystem, which may still attract international firms [32].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US inflation data for June 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, exceeding market expectations [2][6][7] - Core CPI also increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a synchronized rebound in inflation [2][7][8] - The overall inflation level is expected to continue rising, driven by core inflation and the effects of tariffs [8][9][10] Group 2: Industry Insights - Electronics - The resumption of H20 supply is expected to accelerate capital expenditure (Capex) among domestic internet companies, which had previously faced uncertainty due to the H20 embargo [3][13] - With the uncertainty lifted, project tenders are likely to restart, leading to the release of orders in the domestic computing power industry chain [3][13] - Domestic internet companies are projected to significantly increase their Capex, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [15] Group 3: Company Insights - Perfect World - Perfect World is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in profitability in H1 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 480 to 520 million yuan [4][19] - The core gaming business is performing steadily, with anticipated net profit contributions from new game launches and cost-reduction measures [19][20] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its clear product pipeline and the expected performance of its upcoming game "异环" [4][19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-China chip war presents opportunities for Nvidia, particularly through its CEO Jensen Huang's strategic engagement with China and the promotion of AI technologies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Nvidia's Position in the Chip Market - Jensen Huang's frequent visits to China highlight the positive reception he receives compared to the US, indicating a potential diplomatic advantage for Nvidia in the chip market [2][6]. - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $4 trillion, largely due to its dominance in GPU technology, which is crucial for AI development [2][3]. - The concept of "sovereign AI" introduced by Huang emphasizes the need for countries to develop their own AI models, which in turn increases the demand for Nvidia's GPUs [3][7]. Group 2: US-China Relations and Trade Policies - The Biden administration's AI diffusion rules categorize countries based on their access to GPU technology, with China facing strict limitations [4][5]. - Huang's lobbying efforts in Washington aim to counteract these restrictions, advocating for a more favorable trade environment for Nvidia [5][9]. - The trade tensions have led to a complex negotiation landscape, where both countries seek to balance tariffs and technology access [6][10]. Group 3: Strategic Adaptations and Future Prospects - Nvidia has tailored its products for the Chinese market, creating "shrink-wrapped" versions of its chips to maintain a competitive edge while complying with US regulations [10][11]. - The introduction of customized products like the RTX 9000Pro and the upcoming Blackwell architecture for China indicates Nvidia's strategy to sustain its market presence [11][12]. - Huang's narrative suggests that by providing modified versions of its technology, Nvidia can keep China reliant on its products, thus prolonging its profitability in the region [10][12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][14] Core Insights - The report highlights that the improvement in chip supply is expected to positively influence capital expenditure (Capex) recovery and tender rhythm, with a focus on the domestic computing power market in the second half of the year [2][4] - Key events include NVIDIA's announcement to resume sales of H20 in China and the introduction of the B30 GPU, which has already received orders worth $1 billion [3][4] - The report indicates that the overall Capex from major manufacturers is anticipated to significantly increase starting Q3, with Alibaba's proposed investment of 380 billion yuan over three years, suggesting a recovery in the power equipment supply chain [4] Supply Side Summary - The chip supply is set to recover, leading to a substantial increase in capital expenditure from major manufacturers, which will accelerate the release of orders for electromechanical equipment [4] - Factors contributing to this improvement include geopolitical stability, the imminent resumption of H20 sales, and strong demand for B30 testing [4] Demand Side Summary - The exponential growth in inference/training tokens is expected to drive demand for computing power, which will, in turn, boost chip shipments and cloud manufacturers' Capex [5] - Notable developments include META's plan to expand Hyperion to 5GW and Tesla's integration of Grok into its AI systems, enhancing vehicle interaction and autonomous driving capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - For power generation: The supply-demand balance may remain neutral to tight, with short-term urgent orders likely to catalyze price increases. Companies to watch include Yuchai International, Chongqing Machinery, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Keta Power [6] - For power distribution: Orders and deliveries from leading manufacturers are expected to maintain high growth alongside Capex releases, with potential price reduction risks from large-scale procurement. Recommended companies include Zhongheng Electric, Oulu Tong, Kehua Data, and others [6] - For liquid cooling: The demand for cooling in data centers is high, benefiting from increased orders in North America. Companies to focus on include Ice Wheel Environment, Inveck, and others [6] - For HVLP copper foil: The rise in AI server power consumption is expected to drive demand for high-end PCB copper foil. Companies to monitor include Defu Technology and Tongguan Copper Foil [6] - Other segments include switchgear and computing power leasing, with companies like Liangxin Stock and Hongjing Technology being highlighted [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is resuming the sales of its H20 GPU in China and launching a new GPU compatible with the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of AI for global business and society [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Resumption and Market Strategy - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has made significant efforts to restore H20 sales, meeting with policymakers in Washington to discuss the company's contributions to job creation and AI infrastructure in the U.S. [1][2]. - The resumption of H20 sales is seen as a strategic move to stabilize relationships with major clients in cloud computing and prevent further market share loss [1][3]. - The introduction of the RTX PRO GPU, marketed as ideal for digital twin AI in smart factories and logistics, allows Nvidia to avoid sensitive high-computing training scenarios while tapping into China's industrial digital transformation [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Impact and Market Expectations - Nvidia faced a financial loss of $4.5 billion in Q1 of fiscal 2026 due to H20's export restrictions, with $4.6 billion in sales and $2.5 billion in unfulfilled orders [3]. - The stock price of Nvidia rose to $168 following the announcement of H20's sales resumption, indicating market alignment with the company's strategic direction [3][4]. Group 3: New Product Development - Nvidia is also launching a new product, the B30, based on the RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell, designed to comply with U.S. export regulations by removing advanced technologies like HBM and NVLink [6][7]. - The B30 is expected to cater to AI inference and edge deep learning applications, although it may not meet the high-performance requirements for large model training due to the removal of HBM [7][8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Domestic Alternatives - Domestic competitors are increasingly adopting local AI chips, with major Chinese tech firms testing homegrown alternatives to reduce reliance on Nvidia products amid U.S. export controls [8][9]. - The emergence of local GPGPU solutions is seen as a response to potential supply chain disruptions, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent developing their own AI chips [9].

Summary of the Conference Call on Domestic AI Computing Power Progress Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the domestic AI computing power industry, particularly the impact of supply chain disruptions and advancements in AI chip technology [1][3][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of H20 Supply Disruption** The initial supply disruption of H20 raised concerns about the availability of AI computing chips, leading to a reduction in short-term capital expenditures and delays in bidding processes, especially severe in Q2 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding new Nvidia chips (B30, B40) and SMIC's production capacity [1][3]. 2. **Recovery in AI Chip Supply** Starting from Q3 2025, there has been a marginal improvement in AI chip supply, which is beneficial for the domestic computing power sector. The demand for domestic chips has increased as major companies seek to fill the gap left by H20's supply issues [1][3]. 3. **Nvidia B30 and B40 Chips** The entry of Nvidia's B30 and B40 chips into the Chinese market is a focal point. If manufacturers can successfully obtain and test these chips in Q3, it may lead to large orders from major companies, alleviating some supply shortages [1][5]. 4. **Growth of the Computing Power Rental Market** The computing power rental market is developing well, primarily for training purposes. The rental models are gradually upgrading to higher-performance versions, providing a crucial solution to the short-term chip shortage [1][6]. 5. **SMIC's Production Capacity Recovery** SMIC faced production capacity issues in the first half of 2025, but recovery is expected to begin in July, with a full recovery anticipated in Q3. The demand for domestic chips has surged, with major companies either developing their own chips or increasing orders for domestic alternatives [1][7]. 6. **Commitment to AI Investment by Major Companies** Major domestic companies are firmly committed to investing in AI, as the allocation of computing resources is closely linked to revenue growth in public cloud services. Recent financial reports from Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud show rapid growth, indicating a strong demand for computing resources [1][8][9]. 7. **High Power Consumption of Domestic Chips** The higher power consumption of self-developed and domestic chips may accelerate the penetration and adoption of liquid cooling technologies beyond expectations. Currently, liquid cooling is mainly applied in Huawei's latest 920C series [1][4][10]. 8. **Investment Opportunities in the Domestic Computing Power Industry** Key investment opportunities include: - Equipment sector focusing on SMIC's capacity recovery and AI accelerator progress - AI chip sector, including companies like Cambricon and Haiguang Information - Computing power rental, with companies such as Youfang Technology and Songji Technology - IDC industry chain, including data centers and liquid cooling technology providers [1][12][13]. 9. **Future Development and Predictions** The demand for domestic computing power remains rigid, with short-term impacts from H20's supply disruption already reflected in stock prices. Various solutions are being implemented to promote public cloud development, with expectations for recovery in Q3 2025 [1][11]. 10. **Rapid Development of Domestic Large Models** As of May 2025, domestic large models are developing rapidly, with significant increases in daily token usage and various applications across industries, indicating a strong acceleration in the deployment of AI technologies [1][14]. 11. **Recent Progress in the Domestic AIDC Industry Chain** Recent advancements include the launch of new models and data centers, as well as government support for the gaming and esports industry, which reflects the national commitment to AI model deployment [1][15]. 12. **Impact of Overseas Markets on AI Hardware Development** The overseas market significantly influences AI hardware development, with Nvidia's data center business and new hardware releases driving demand for computing chips and related technologies [1][16]. 13. **Prospects for AI Technology Applications Across Industries** AI technology is increasingly being adopted across various industries, with significant growth in demand for real-time applications, which will further drive the overall growth of the domestic AI computing power industry [1][17].