Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report is expected to cause significant volatility in global stock markets, with options traders predicting a 100% chance of "super volatility news" impacting the market [1]. Group 1: Earnings Impact - Nvidia's earnings report is crucial for the continuation of the global stock market bull run, with Wall Street expecting a 48% year-over-year increase in earnings per share to $1.01 and a 54% increase in revenue to approximately $46.1 billion [5][6]. - The company's market capitalization is projected to experience a potential change of about $260 billion following the earnings announcement, which could influence the broader market direction [1][2]. - Analysts have raised their earnings expectations for Nvidia, with some predicting revenues as high as $55 billion for Q3, reflecting optimism about AI infrastructure demand [5][7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Volatility - The implied volatility surrounding Nvidia's stock is significant, with traders pricing in a potential 6% price movement post-earnings, which is lower than the long-term average of 7% [2][8]. - Nvidia's stock has added approximately $2 trillion in market value since early April, driven by strong performance and investor sentiment regarding AI [10][11]. - The upcoming earnings report is considered one of the largest risk factors for the market, surpassing other economic indicators such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8][12]. Group 3: China Market Concerns - Nvidia faces uncertainty regarding its sales in the Chinese market, particularly with the introduction of government regulations affecting AI chip sales [12][16]. - Analysts are divided on the revenue guidance from Nvidia concerning the Chinese market, highlighting a significant range in revenue forecasts for Q3 [13][16]. - The complexity of the regulatory environment in China adds to the unpredictability of Nvidia's earnings outlook, with potential implications for its stock performance and broader market trends [16][17].

昨天几大指数都收出了十字星线，然后跟前天的k线构成了运线结构，通常这里是要看变盘，无非是向上还是向下。由于近期这里涨幅较大，所以技术面 倾向于向下变盘，今天实际走势，我们看到指数也一度想冲高，但未能奏效。特别是出现了非常偏执的结构性机会，只有科技股大涨，而其他板块普跌， 最终沪指没有出新高。 深成指今天再出新高，也是四连阳上行，今天领涨的半导体方向以及英伟达产业链等，都是集中在深市。今天创业板指数也创出了反弹新高，不过午后也 是有冲高回落，他也是受益于英伟达产业链。 中午乃至昨天晚上我都已经提到了明天凌晨有英伟达的业绩报告，虽然它增长还是比较快，但能否构成惊 喜还有一些分歧，特别是近期英伟达已经在4个月股价翻倍。 科创50的情况也是刷出了反弹新高，涨幅也不小。如果英伟达产业链走的特别强的时候，特别是H20和B30要入华，那么对国产替代是一定的利空，今年7 月份的时候，科创一度被压盘。不过，最后还是与英伟达产业链构成了共振，后来当英伟达要停产H20的时候，这里终于找到了国产替代的爆发机会，特 别是DS发布了下一代芯片设计的消息，点燃了炒作热情，二月份那波炒算力和模型，这一波炒芯片。 今天我们也在见证一次巅峰对决 ...

以下文章来源于未尽研究 ，作者未尽研究 未尽研究 . AI，新能源，合成生物，地缘X 本文来自微信公众号： 未尽研究 （ID：Weijin_Research） ，作者：未尽研究，题图来自：AI生成 从V3到V3.1，DeepSeek正在探索出一条"算力自由"之路。 从魔改PTX到使用UE8M0 FP8 Scale的参数精度，DeepSeek先榨取英伟达GPU算力，再适配国产芯 片，可能会在软硬件协同方面带来新的突破， 进一步提高训练效率，最多可以减少75%的内存使用 ，从而在实际应用中减少对进口先进GPU芯片的依赖。 DeepSeek正在与下一代国产GPU芯片厂商一起，向算力自主又迈进一步。正是这样一种令人激动的 前景，激活了科技色彩愈发浓厚的中国资本市场。 DeepSeek发布了V3.1，而不是广受期待的V4或者R2，连R1也消失了。 DeepSeek变成了一个混合推 理架构，即一个模型同时支持思考模式和非思考模式。 这是一个趋势，在V3.1发布一周之前，GPT- 5发布了，这是一个"统一的系统"，包括一个对话模型，一个思考模型，和一个实时路由，用来决定 如何结合对话与思考。 这次升级提高了DeepSeek ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US inflation data for June 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, exceeding market expectations [2][6][7] - Core CPI also increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a synchronized rebound in inflation [2][7][8] - The overall inflation level is expected to continue rising, driven by core inflation and the effects of tariffs [8][9][10] Group 2: Industry Insights - Electronics - The resumption of H20 supply is expected to accelerate capital expenditure (Capex) among domestic internet companies, which had previously faced uncertainty due to the H20 embargo [3][13] - With the uncertainty lifted, project tenders are likely to restart, leading to the release of orders in the domestic computing power industry chain [3][13] - Domestic internet companies are projected to significantly increase their Capex, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [15] Group 3: Company Insights - Perfect World - Perfect World is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in profitability in H1 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 480 to 520 million yuan [4][19] - The core gaming business is performing steadily, with anticipated net profit contributions from new game launches and cost-reduction measures [19][20] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its clear product pipeline and the expected performance of its upcoming game "异环" [4][19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-China chip war presents opportunities for Nvidia, particularly through its CEO Jensen Huang's strategic engagement with China and the promotion of AI technologies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Nvidia's Position in the Chip Market - Jensen Huang's frequent visits to China highlight the positive reception he receives compared to the US, indicating a potential diplomatic advantage for Nvidia in the chip market [2][6]. - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $4 trillion, largely due to its dominance in GPU technology, which is crucial for AI development [2][3]. - The concept of "sovereign AI" introduced by Huang emphasizes the need for countries to develop their own AI models, which in turn increases the demand for Nvidia's GPUs [3][7]. Group 2: US-China Relations and Trade Policies - The Biden administration's AI diffusion rules categorize countries based on their access to GPU technology, with China facing strict limitations [4][5]. - Huang's lobbying efforts in Washington aim to counteract these restrictions, advocating for a more favorable trade environment for Nvidia [5][9]. - The trade tensions have led to a complex negotiation landscape, where both countries seek to balance tariffs and technology access [6][10]. Group 3: Strategic Adaptations and Future Prospects - Nvidia has tailored its products for the Chinese market, creating "shrink-wrapped" versions of its chips to maintain a competitive edge while complying with US regulations [10][11]. - The introduction of customized products like the RTX 9000Pro and the upcoming Blackwell architecture for China indicates Nvidia's strategy to sustain its market presence [11][12]. - Huang's narrative suggests that by providing modified versions of its technology, Nvidia can keep China reliant on its products, thus prolonging its profitability in the region [10][12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][14] Core Insights - The report highlights that the improvement in chip supply is expected to positively influence capital expenditure (Capex) recovery and tender rhythm, with a focus on the domestic computing power market in the second half of the year [2][4] - Key events include NVIDIA's announcement to resume sales of H20 in China and the introduction of the B30 GPU, which has already received orders worth $1 billion [3][4] - The report indicates that the overall Capex from major manufacturers is anticipated to significantly increase starting Q3, with Alibaba's proposed investment of 380 billion yuan over three years, suggesting a recovery in the power equipment supply chain [4] Supply Side Summary - The chip supply is set to recover, leading to a substantial increase in capital expenditure from major manufacturers, which will accelerate the release of orders for electromechanical equipment [4] - Factors contributing to this improvement include geopolitical stability, the imminent resumption of H20 sales, and strong demand for B30 testing [4] Demand Side Summary - The exponential growth in inference/training tokens is expected to drive demand for computing power, which will, in turn, boost chip shipments and cloud manufacturers' Capex [5] - Notable developments include META's plan to expand Hyperion to 5GW and Tesla's integration of Grok into its AI systems, enhancing vehicle interaction and autonomous driving capabilities [5] Investment Recommendations - For power generation: The supply-demand balance may remain neutral to tight, with short-term urgent orders likely to catalyze price increases. Companies to watch include Yuchai International, Chongqing Machinery, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Keta Power [6] - For power distribution: Orders and deliveries from leading manufacturers are expected to maintain high growth alongside Capex releases, with potential price reduction risks from large-scale procurement. Recommended companies include Zhongheng Electric, Oulu Tong, Kehua Data, and others [6] - For liquid cooling: The demand for cooling in data centers is high, benefiting from increased orders in North America. Companies to focus on include Ice Wheel Environment, Inveck, and others [6] - For HVLP copper foil: The rise in AI server power consumption is expected to drive demand for high-end PCB copper foil. Companies to monitor include Defu Technology and Tongguan Copper Foil [6] - Other segments include switchgear and computing power leasing, with companies like Liangxin Stock and Hongjing Technology being highlighted [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is resuming the sales of its H20 GPU in China and launching a new GPU compatible with the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of AI for global business and society [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Resumption and Market Strategy - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has made significant efforts to restore H20 sales, meeting with policymakers in Washington to discuss the company's contributions to job creation and AI infrastructure in the U.S. [1][2]. - The resumption of H20 sales is seen as a strategic move to stabilize relationships with major clients in cloud computing and prevent further market share loss [1][3]. - The introduction of the RTX PRO GPU, marketed as ideal for digital twin AI in smart factories and logistics, allows Nvidia to avoid sensitive high-computing training scenarios while tapping into China's industrial digital transformation [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Impact and Market Expectations - Nvidia faced a financial loss of $4.5 billion in Q1 of fiscal 2026 due to H20's export restrictions, with $4.6 billion in sales and $2.5 billion in unfulfilled orders [3]. - The stock price of Nvidia rose to $168 following the announcement of H20's sales resumption, indicating market alignment with the company's strategic direction [3][4]. Group 3: New Product Development - Nvidia is also launching a new product, the B30, based on the RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell, designed to comply with U.S. export regulations by removing advanced technologies like HBM and NVLink [6][7]. - The B30 is expected to cater to AI inference and edge deep learning applications, although it may not meet the high-performance requirements for large model training due to the removal of HBM [7][8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Domestic Alternatives - Domestic competitors are increasingly adopting local AI chips, with major Chinese tech firms testing homegrown alternatives to reduce reliance on Nvidia products amid U.S. export controls [8][9]. - The emergence of local GPGPU solutions is seen as a response to potential supply chain disruptions, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent developing their own AI chips [9].

Summary of the Conference Call on Domestic AI Computing Power Progress Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the domestic AI computing power industry, particularly the impact of supply chain disruptions and advancements in AI chip technology [1][3][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of H20 Supply Disruption** The initial supply disruption of H20 raised concerns about the availability of AI computing chips, leading to a reduction in short-term capital expenditures and delays in bidding processes, especially severe in Q2 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding new Nvidia chips (B30, B40) and SMIC's production capacity [1][3]. 2. **Recovery in AI Chip Supply** Starting from Q3 2025, there has been a marginal improvement in AI chip supply, which is beneficial for the domestic computing power sector. The demand for domestic chips has increased as major companies seek to fill the gap left by H20's supply issues [1][3]. 3. **Nvidia B30 and B40 Chips** The entry of Nvidia's B30 and B40 chips into the Chinese market is a focal point. If manufacturers can successfully obtain and test these chips in Q3, it may lead to large orders from major companies, alleviating some supply shortages [1][5]. 4. **Growth of the Computing Power Rental Market** The computing power rental market is developing well, primarily for training purposes. The rental models are gradually upgrading to higher-performance versions, providing a crucial solution to the short-term chip shortage [1][6]. 5. **SMIC's Production Capacity Recovery** SMIC faced production capacity issues in the first half of 2025, but recovery is expected to begin in July, with a full recovery anticipated in Q3. The demand for domestic chips has surged, with major companies either developing their own chips or increasing orders for domestic alternatives [1][7]. 6. **Commitment to AI Investment by Major Companies** Major domestic companies are firmly committed to investing in AI, as the allocation of computing resources is closely linked to revenue growth in public cloud services. Recent financial reports from Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud show rapid growth, indicating a strong demand for computing resources [1][8][9]. 7. **High Power Consumption of Domestic Chips** The higher power consumption of self-developed and domestic chips may accelerate the penetration and adoption of liquid cooling technologies beyond expectations. Currently, liquid cooling is mainly applied in Huawei's latest 920C series [1][4][10]. 8. **Investment Opportunities in the Domestic Computing Power Industry** Key investment opportunities include: - Equipment sector focusing on SMIC's capacity recovery and AI accelerator progress - AI chip sector, including companies like Cambricon and Haiguang Information - Computing power rental, with companies such as Youfang Technology and Songji Technology - IDC industry chain, including data centers and liquid cooling technology providers [1][12][13]. 9. **Future Development and Predictions** The demand for domestic computing power remains rigid, with short-term impacts from H20's supply disruption already reflected in stock prices. Various solutions are being implemented to promote public cloud development, with expectations for recovery in Q3 2025 [1][11]. 10. **Rapid Development of Domestic Large Models** As of May 2025, domestic large models are developing rapidly, with significant increases in daily token usage and various applications across industries, indicating a strong acceleration in the deployment of AI technologies [1][14]. 11. **Recent Progress in the Domestic AIDC Industry Chain** Recent advancements include the launch of new models and data centers, as well as government support for the gaming and esports industry, which reflects the national commitment to AI model deployment [1][15]. 12. **Impact of Overseas Markets on AI Hardware Development** The overseas market significantly influences AI hardware development, with Nvidia's data center business and new hardware releases driving demand for computing chips and related technologies [1][16]. 13. **Prospects for AI Technology Applications Across Industries** AI technology is increasingly being adopted across various industries, with significant growth in demand for real-time applications, which will further drive the overall growth of the domestic AI computing power industry [1][17].

Market Overview - The main board saw significant gains with notable stocks such as Zhongdian Xinlong (+10.05%), Yuyin Co. (+10.04%), and Guanghua Technology (+10.02%) leading the charge [1] - The ChiNext board experienced a surge, highlighted by Huijin Co. (+20.03%) and Taicheng Light (+14.88%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board also performed well, with Dekeli (+11.56%) and Shengyi Electronics (+8.54%) among the top gainers [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Communication Network Equipment and Devices (+3.83%) and SW Printed Circuit Boards (+3.40%) [1] Domestic News - Unisoc officially launched its smart wearable platform W527, utilizing a 12nm process and featuring a heterogeneous processor architecture with one Arm Cortex-A75 core and three Cortex-A55 cores [1] - In May, BYD sold 382,500 new vehicles, SAIC Group sold 366,000, Changan Automobile sold 224,300, and Chery Group sold 190,000 [1] - Dazhu Laser announced that its subsidiary has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, drawing attention to the domestic semiconductor equipment market [1] - Tailin Micro reported its focus on Edge AI technology, launching several chips for edge computing and AI applications, which are widely used in smart home and wireless audio sectors [1] Company Announcements - Yongxin Zhicheng announced a cash dividend of 0.05 yuan per share and a capital reserve transfer of 0.48 shares per share, increasing total shares to 150,961,519 [2] - Yongxi Electronics reported a share buyback progress, having repurchased 2,562,688 shares, representing 0.63% of total shares [2] - Oulain New Materials declared a cash dividend of 0.065 yuan per share, totaling 10,402,913.56 yuan [2] - Jin'an Guoji announced that its subsidiary received high-tech enterprise certification, allowing for a 15% corporate income tax rate from 2024 to 2026 [2] Industry Insights - Nvidia is developing a lower-spec AI chip named "B30" for the Chinese market, which will support multi-GPU expansion and utilize the latest Blackwell architecture [3] - According to Canalys, the global wearable wristband market grew by 13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a total shipment of 46.6 million units, although Apple's market share decreased from 17.5% to 16.3% [3] - WSTS forecasts that the global semiconductor market will reach $700.9 billion in 2025, driven by growth in logic and memory sectors, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [3] - Reports indicate that Samsung's 3nm process yield remains low at 50% even after three years of production [3]