半导体行业 超配（维持） AI 仍为创新主线，算力、存力、设备、先进封装等 多环节受益 投 资 策 略 资料来源：Wind，东莞证券研究所 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 2025 年 11 月 24 日 S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 推荐 分析师：刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： 投资要点： 板块业绩及走势：受益AI快速演进重塑半导体需求结构，半导体产 业在2025年实现新一轮增长，2025年前三季度营收、净利润同比提 高。2025年以来，申万半导体行业指数估值快速上行，年内走势跑 赢大盘，且各细分板块均录得正向涨幅。 分析师：陈伟光 SAC 执业证书编号： 算力：大模型加速落地推高算力规模，国产算力有望突破。近年人 工智能成为各国逐力焦点，境外对 ...

Core Insights - The DRAM supply chain is facing significant challenges, particularly in the server memory segment, with major hyperscale vendors in the US and China receiving only 70% of their ordered server DRAM [2] - Demand for traditional DDR5 RDIMM is exceeding supply, driven by a shift in production capacity towards AI-related advanced nodes by major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix [2][3] - The market is experiencing a surge in spot prices, with DDR5 16 GB modules rising from $7-$8 to around $13 since late September, indicating a tightening supply situation [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Order fulfillment rates for channel vendors and smaller OEMs are low, around 35%-40%, as larger hyperscale companies secure fixed allocations, forcing smaller clients to the spot market or to wait until 2026 for capacity [3] - Micron has warned that DRAM is a "supply-constrained industry," with supply growth lagging behind demand expected to continue into next year [3] - TrendForce indicates that DDR4 prices are slowly declining, but the overall DRAM market is expected to see price increases of 13%-18% in Q4 [6][7] Price Trends - Recent price hikes in the DRAM market have reached up to 30%, with some manufacturers pausing quotes for certain DRAM and NAND flash products due to pricing pressures [5][6] - Kingston's DDR4 desktop memory module prices have more than doubled since March, reflecting the broader trend of rising memory prices [6] - TrendForce predicts that the shortage of DDR4 will persist until mid-2026, with overall DRAM prices expected to rise by 13%-18% in Q4 [6][7] Future Outlook - The price surge is driven by two main factors: the announcement of DDR4 discontinuation and stockpiling due to US-China tariff tensions [7] - The demand for DDR5 RDIMM, LPDDR5X, and HBM is expected to increase significantly as North American data centers accelerate AI server investments [9][10] - Despite efforts to adjust production capacity, uncertainties remain regarding supply stability for DDR5 due to technical issues and prioritization of HBM4 production [10]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the planned significant share reduction by a major shareholder, the stock price of Xiangnong Xinchuan (300475.SZ) reached a new high, indicating strong market confidence and resilience in the semiconductor distribution sector [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 21, Xiangnong Xinchuan's stock price hit a peak of 109.57 CNY per share, closing at 104.9 CNY, marking a 9.03% increase and a market capitalization exceeding 48 billion CNY [1]. - The company has set a record high for its stock price 13 times this year, with a cumulative increase of 268.89% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Shareholder Actions - A shareholder, Wuxi New Momentum Fund, holding 5.13% of the shares, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 4.6377 million shares, representing 1% of the total share capital, due to funding needs [3]. - The estimated cash amount from this reduction could reach approximately 446 million CNY based on the closing price on October 20 [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The semiconductor market, particularly the storage segment, is experiencing a significant uptrend, with global storage chip prices rising continuously since the beginning of the year [3]. - The CFM flash memory market forecasts a price increase of over 10% for enterprise SSDs and 10%-15% for DDR5 RDIMM in the fourth quarter [3]. Group 4: Company Overview - Xiangnong Xinchuan, established in 1998 and rebranded in 2021, has become a leading semiconductor distributor, securing agency rights with major global suppliers like SK Hynix and MTK [4]. - Despite a substantial revenue increase of 119.35% year-on-year to 17.123 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, the net profit only slightly rose by 0.95% to 158 million CNY, indicating a "revenue growth without profit increase" situation [4]. - The company is focusing on its self-owned storage brand "Haipu Storage," which is expected to perform better in the current market conditions [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a significant shareholder reduction plan, the stock price of Xiangnong Xinchuan (300475.SZ) surged, reaching a historical high, indicating a strong market sentiment towards the company [1][2] - Xiangnong Xinchuan's stock price increased by 9.03% to close at 104.9 yuan per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 48 billion yuan, and a year-to-date increase of 268.89% [1] - The shareholder, Wuxi New Momentum Fund, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 4.6377 million shares, representing 1% of the total share capital, primarily due to funding needs [1][2] Group 2 - The driving force behind the stock price increase is attributed to a booming global storage chip market, with significant price increases expected in enterprise SSDs and DDR5 RDIMMs [2] - Xiangnong Xinchuan reported a revenue of 17.123 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 119.35%, but the net profit only slightly increased by 0.95%, indicating a "revenue growth without profit growth" situation [2] - The company has a fast inventory turnover cycle, and some customer order prices were pre-negotiated, leading to lower gross margins despite the price hikes in storage products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The major shareholder of Xiangnon Chip (SZ300475) plans to reduce its stake due to funding needs, which may impact the stock's performance in the short term [1][2] Company Summary - Xiangnon Chip's stock price reached a historical high of 107.8 CNY per share on October 17, 2023, and has seen a significant increase of 116.56% in September [1] - The New Momentum Fund holds approximately 23.79 million shares of Xiangnon Chip, representing 5.13% of the total share capital, and plans to reduce its holdings by up to 4.64 million shares (1% of total shares) within three months starting from the announcement date [1][2] - The New Momentum Fund acquired its shares at a price of 24.65 CNY per share, resulting in a potential cumulative return of about 290% based on the closing price of 96.21 CNY on October 20, 2023 [3] Industry Summary - The storage chip sector is experiencing a bullish trend, with several companies, including Demingli (SZ001309) and Bawei Storage (SH688525), reaching new historical highs [4] - Global storage chip prices have been rising over the past six months, with forecasts indicating a price increase of over 10% for server eSSD and a 10%-15% increase for DDR5 RDIMM in the fourth quarter of 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip sector is experiencing a strong rally, with significant price increases expected in the fourth quarter, driven by rising demand and price hikes from major manufacturers [5][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 16, the storage chip index rose by 1.22%, with notable stocks like Xiangnon Chip (300475.SZ) hitting a 20% limit up and reaching new highs [2]. - Several companies, including Demingli (001309.SZ) and Sanfu Co. (603938.SH), also saw their stocks hit the limit up, while Xiangnon Chip increased by over 16% [2]. - Year-to-date, Dongxin Co. (688110.SH) has surged over 328.88%, with other companies like Xiangnon Chip and Demingli also showing significant gains of over 268% and 216% respectively [6]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - The global storage product price increase is expected to continue, with enterprise SSD prices projected to rise by over 10% and DDR5 RDIMM prices by approximately 10% to 15% in Q4 [5]. - Major storage manufacturers, including SanDisk, Micron, Samsung, and Western Digital, have announced price hikes, indicating a robust market environment [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Domestic manufacturers are anticipated to benefit from the ongoing price increases and market recovery, with opportunities in the mobile and server markets for local firms [5][9]. - Companies such as Jiangbolong, Demingli, Bawei Storage, and Zhaoyi Innovation are recommended for investment due to their potential to capitalize on the rising demand driven by AI [9].

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip sector is experiencing a strong rally, with significant price increases expected in the fourth quarter, driven by rising demand and price hikes from major manufacturers [3][4]. Market Performance - On October 16, the storage chip index rose by 1.22%, with several stocks hitting their daily limit up, including Xiangnon Chip (300475.SZ) which saw a rise of over 16% [1]. - Notable performers include Dongxin Co. (688110.SH) with a year-to-date increase of 328.88%, Xiangnon Chip (300475.SZ) at 268.11%, and Demingli (001309.SZ) at 216.18% [5]. Price Trends - The global storage product price increase is expected to continue, with enterprise-level SSD prices projected to rise by over 10% in Q4, and DDR5 RDIMM prices expected to increase by approximately 10% to 15% [3][4]. - Major manufacturers like SanDisk, Micron, Samsung, and Western Digital have already announced price hikes [4]. Industry Opportunities - Domestic manufacturers are anticipated to benefit from the ongoing price increases, with opportunities arising from the shift of overseas manufacturers towards high-margin products [4]. - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and Guoxin Securities suggest that the recovery in the industry, particularly in the mobile and server markets, will create a favorable environment for domestic storage manufacturers [4][8]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain hot, with recommendations for investors to focus on domestic storage companies such as Jiangbolong, Demingli, Bawei Storage, and Zhaoyi Innovation, which are positioned to benefit from the current price increase cycle and AI-driven demand [7][8].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices showing mixed results, where the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1% while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.25% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to approximately 1.93 trillion yuan, down by 141.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [4][11] - Despite the low trading volume, the Shanghai Composite Index approached its recent high of 3936.58 points, reflecting a focus on core assets [5][7] Sector Performance - Sectors such as coal, insurance, and port shipping showed significant gains, while precious metals, semiconductors, and wind power faced declines [3][13] - The coal mining and processing sector increased by 2.84% year-to-date, while insurance and port shipping sectors also performed well, with year-to-date increases of 14.25% and 18.42% respectively [14] Investment Sentiment - The current market environment suggests a need for patience and confidence among investors, as the indices are close to new highs but face volatility [9][10] - Analysts indicate that external shocks leading to asset declines may present good opportunities to increase holdings in the Chinese market, as the current trade risks are clearer compared to previous instances [11] Financial Conditions - Recent data shows a net inflow of 66.336 billion yuan into the A-share market, with margin financing and ETF subscriptions contributing significantly to this increase [11] - The credit environment is in a phase of mild recovery, with expectations of increased loan issuance due to upcoming policy financial tools [12] Future Outlook - The storage chip market is expected to enter a new upcycle in 2024, driven by demand from AI infrastructure, indicating potential growth opportunities in this sector [15][16] - Historical analysis suggests that the fourth quarter of 2025 may be a critical time for positioning in dividend stocks, as current pessimistic expectations may have been fully priced in [16]

Market Overview - On October 16, the market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices briefly turning negative during the session. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.93 trillion yuan, a decrease of 141.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as coal, insurance, and port shipping saw significant gains, while precious metals, semiconductors, and wind power faced declines [2] - Notably, coal mining and processing rose by 2.84% year-to-date, while insurance increased by 2.57%, and port shipping gained 1.81% [9] Market Sentiment and Liquidity - The current market environment is characterized by tight liquidity, leading to a cautious approach among investors. The strategy suggested is to wait for a volume signal before engaging in new trades [3][7] - Recent data indicates a net inflow of 66.336 billion yuan into the A-share market, with margin financing contributing 47.618 billion yuan and ETF subscriptions totaling 29.87 billion yuan, suggesting increased market activity [7] Credit and Financing Trends - Social financing in September declined due to a high base effect, with a significant drop in government bond issuance. However, a projected increase in entrusted loans is expected to support social financing growth in the fourth quarter [8] - The overall credit environment is in a mild recovery phase, with short-term loans rising and medium to long-term loans remaining stable, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption [8] Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions may present opportunities for long-term investments, particularly in core assets, as external shocks are viewed as disturbances rather than trend-ending events [7] - The storage chip market is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle in 2024, driven by demand from AI infrastructure, which may provide investment opportunities in related sectors [10]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices showing mixed results, where the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% [1] - Nearly 4,200 stocks declined across the market, with a total trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan, a decrease of 141.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The trading volume of approximately 1.95 trillion yuan is considered low, raising questions about whether this indicates a "true low volume" situation [2] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on long-term strategies and waiting for volume signals before engaging in new trades [2] Sector Performance - Core assets such as coal, insurance, and port shipping sectors showed strong performance, while sectors like precious metals, semiconductors, and wind power faced declines [1][7] - The coal mining and processing sector increased by 2.84% year-to-date, while the insurance sector saw a slight decline of 0.28% [8] Liquidity and Fund Flows - Recent data indicates a net inflow of 66.336 billion yuan into the A-share market, with margin financing contributing 47.618 billion yuan and ETF subscriptions totaling 29.87 billion yuan, suggesting increased market activity [5] - The overall credit environment is in a mild recovery phase, supported by improved corporate operating conditions and stable household loans [5][6] Storage Chip Market Outlook - The storage chip market is expected to enter a new upcycle in 2024, driven by demand from AI infrastructure, with significant price increases anticipated for server eSSD and DDR5 RDIMM products [9] - Historical analysis suggests that the fourth quarter of 2025 may present a key opportunity for investing in dividend stocks, as current pessimistic expectations may have been fully priced in [9]