截至2025年12月31日 13:06，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)成分股方面涨跌互现，协创数据(300857)领 涨5.17%，昆仑万维(300418)上涨4.58%，广电运通(002152)上涨4.19%；北京君正(300223)领跌。AI人工 智能ETF(512930)最新报价2.19元。 消息面上，国家发展改革委相关负责人表示，我国深入实施"人工智能+"行动，为人工智能算力芯片提 供了广泛应用场景，各类型算力芯片需求增长迅速、创新非常活跃。目前，国产芯片产品在不同场景中 加速适配，应用成效非常好。特别是"超节点"等集群互联技术发展，为国产算力赶上国际领先水平提供 了良好机遇，拓展了广阔发展空间。未来，随着产业链上下游协同持续深化，国产算力水平将不断提 升，为人工智能产业发展提供更加有力的支撑。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)前十大权重股分别为中际旭创 (300308)、新易盛(300502)、寒武纪(688256)、中科曙光(603019)、澜起科技(688008)、科大讯飞 (002230)、海康威视(002415)、豪威集团(603501)、金山 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new wave of price increases driven by rising demand, particularly from AI applications, and supply-side capacity shortages [2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases - Semiconductor companies such as SMIC and GlobalFoundries have issued price increase notices to downstream customers, primarily focusing on the 8-inch BCD process platform with an increase of around 10% [3]. - The NAND price index has surged by 173% and the DRAM price index by 169% since the end of July, with expectations of further increases in DDR5 RDIMM prices by over 40% and eSSD prices by 20-30% in Q1 2026 [3]. Group 2: Market Growth - According to SEMI, global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to reach $133 billion in 2025, marking a 13.7% year-on-year increase, with continued growth expected in the following years, reaching $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027 [4]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks an index where nearly 60% is composed of equipment, and over 90% is focused on the upstream sectors of the semiconductor industry, indicating significant potential for domestic substitution [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment ETF has a strong focus on leading companies such as Zhongwei Company, North Huachuang, and Cambrian, with the top ten holdings accounting for nearly 80% of the index, showcasing high elasticity characteristics [7]. - As of December 24, the index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 65%, outperforming other mainstream semiconductor indices, suggesting it may have greater resilience in the upcoming semiconductor upcycle [7].

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rebound with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a five-day winning streak [1] - The new energy sector rebounded, driven by the continuous rise in lithium carbonate futures, leading the lithium battery industry chain [1] - The semiconductor and financial sectors showed active performance, with leading stocks like North Huachuang and Tsinghua Unigroup reaching historical highs [1] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry chain was notably strong, with segments such as photolithography machines, electronic chemicals, and storage chips experiencing price increases [2] - North Huachuang's stock rose by 4.72%, reaching a market value of 353 billion yuan, while Tsinghua Unigroup increased by 1.46%, with a market value of 103.2 billion yuan [2] - Analysts indicated that "shortage" and "price increase" are the main catalysts for the semiconductor industry, particularly in storage chips, which are experiencing a supply shortage and price hikes [4] Storage Market Outlook - According to CFM's recent report, a significant supply gap is expected in the server eSSD and DDR5 RDIMM markets in Q1 2026, with DDR5 RDIMM prices projected to rise by over 40% and eSSD prices by 20-30% [5] - The demand for AI is driving global storage and advanced process capacity expansion, with domestic storage and advanced process expansion expected to accelerate from 2026 to 2027 [5] - Analysts suggest focusing on three main lines: AI server demand, AI endpoint applications, and the domestic supply chain's growth potential [6] Financial Sector - The financial sector showed active performance, particularly in the insurance segment, with stocks like Xinhua Insurance and China Pacific Insurance reaching historical highs [7] - Xinhua Insurance's stock was at 72.96 yuan, with a market value of 152.2 billion yuan, while China Pacific Insurance was at 41.97 yuan, with a market value of 287.3 billion yuan [8] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration released a draft for public consultation on asset-liability management for insurance companies, aiming to enhance governance structures [9] - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments is expected to reduce capital occupation and improve solvency ratios [10]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rebound with all three major indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index achieved a five-day winning streak [1] New Energy and Lithium Industry - The new energy sector rebounded, driven by the continuous rise in lithium carbonate futures, leading the lithium battery industry chain [2] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry chain showed strong performance, with key stocks like North Huachuang and Tuojing Technology reaching historical highs, with market capitalizations of 353 billion yuan and 103.2 billion yuan respectively [4] - The main catalysts for the semiconductor industry include shortages and price increases, particularly in storage chips, which are expected to see significant price hikes of over 40% for DDR5 RDIMM and 20%-30% for eSSD by Q1 2026 [4] - Analysts predict that the AI demand will drive global storage and advanced process capacity expansion, benefiting domestic storage equipment companies [5] Financial Sector - The financial sector was active, with the insurance sector leading the gains, and stocks like Xinhua Insurance and China Pacific Insurance reaching historical highs [6] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration released a draft for public consultation on asset-liability management for insurance companies, which aims to enhance governance structures [7] - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investments in stocks is expected to reduce capital occupation and improve solvency ratios [8]

Group 1 - The semiconductor chip market is experiencing significant activity, with Kema Technology hitting the daily limit up, and the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) rising over 4% this week, with a trading volume of 276 million yuan [1][11] - Major stocks in the semiconductor equipment sector, including Kema Technology, Shanghai Xinyang, and Aisen Co., have shown strong performance, with Kema Technology reaching the daily limit and others like Shanghai Xinyang and Aisen Co. increasing by over 17% and 16% respectively [1][14] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI semiconductor index, with nearly 60% of its components being equipment-related, and it has achieved a year-to-date increase of 54.82%, ranking first among major semiconductor indices [1][11][14] Group 2 - The rapid development of Chinese chip technology is expected to disrupt companies like Nvidia by 2026 or 2027, as highlighted by Bloomberg and supported by analysts from major financial institutions [3] - The ongoing AI infrastructure boom is driving demand for advanced chips, with a focus on 3nm and below processes, indicating a robust long-term bull market for semiconductor equipment [3][11] - Domestic chip companies are accelerating their globalization and capitalization processes, with significant IPOs such as Moore Threads and Muxi Technology marking a notable trend in the industry [4][5] Group 3 - The storage chip sector is also seeing a surge in IPO activities, with companies like Changxin Technology and Yangtze Memory Technologies planning to go public, which is expected to enhance capacity construction [5][6] - According to CFM's market outlook, there is a projected supply shortage for server eSSD and DDR5 RDIMM, with prices expected to rise significantly, indicating strong demand driven by AI [6][8] - The global semiconductor sales forecast for 2026 has been revised upwards to $975.4 billion, reflecting a recovery driven by sustained AI demand [8][11]

2025 年 12 月 19 日 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2025/12/05-2025/12/18） 机构预计 2026 年存储价格有望持续上涨 行 业 周 报 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业 半导体行业指数近两周涨跌幅：截至2025年12月18日，申万半导体行业指 数近两周（2025/12/05-2025/12/18）累计下跌0.33%，跑输沪深300指数0.47 个百分点；2025年以来申万半导体行业指数累计上涨40.55%，跑赢沪深300 指数24.85个百分点。 SAC 执业证书编号： 半导体行业（申万）指数走势 行业新闻与公司动态：（1）智谱开源"会操作手机的AI"AutoG ...

Group 1 - Micron reported strong Q1 FY2026 earnings with adjusted revenue of $13.64 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $12.95 billion [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $6.419 billion, accounting for 47.0% of revenue, also surpassing the expected $5.37 billion [1] - The company provided a robust Q2 guidance, forecasting revenue of $18.7 billion, significantly above the analyst estimate of $14.38 billion [1] Group 2 - Micron's Q1 revenue from cloud storage was $5.284 billion, showing substantial year-over-year growth, while data center revenue was $2.379 billion [2] - The company emphasized its critical role in the AI ecosystem and is continuously investing to meet the growing demand for storage and memory [2] - Analysts noted that Micron's strong performance and increased capital expenditure reflect a tightening supply-demand balance in the storage market [2] Group 3 - The storage industry supply chain consists of upstream semiconductor equipment and material suppliers, midstream storage chip design and manufacturing companies like Micron and Samsung, and downstream sectors including AI servers, smartphones, and PCs [3] - Increased end-user demand and technological upgrades are driving the demand for midstream storage chips, which in turn boosts the demand for upstream equipment and materials [3] Group 4 - Zhaoyi Innovation is a leading domestic storage chip company in China, with core businesses including NOR Flash, MCU, and DRAM, holding a significant global market share in NOR Flash products [4] Group 5 - China Electronics Port is one of Micron's authorized distributors in the domestic market [5]

另外，三星已完成HBM4的内部测试；如果包括英伟达在内的主要客户的质量认证结果最早在本月公布，三星可能开始量产。 三星之所以能在SOCAMM 2 的导入阶段抢下英伟达超过50%订单，可能在于其10nm级第6代（1c）DRAM在良率与性能表现较为出色，使得SOCAMM 供 应链格局出现明显调整，领先了本来占优势的美光。 资料显示，SOCAMM 是近年英伟达推动的高性能内存模块，采用压缩连接式CAMM（Compression Attached Memory Module）设计，能在更薄的基板上 整合多颗低功耗DRAM，较传统DDR5 RDIMM 在空间效率与能耗上更具优势。 ***************END*************** 国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 12月4日消息，据韩媒报道，三星电子获得英伟达2026年SOCAMM 2芯片一半的订单！ 英伟达需要从全球DRAM行业采购约200亿GB的SOCAMM 2，三星获得约100亿GB的订单，SK海力士可能承担约60-70亿GB的订单，剩余部分由美光供 应。 第一步：扫描 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new growth cycle driven by the rapid evolution of AI, with significant increases in revenue and net profit expected in 2025 [4][14][30] - The semiconductor sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached CNY 499.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.95%, while net profit was CNY 44.46 billion, up 48.21% year-on-year [14][21] - The semiconductor index has outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 41.67% in 2025, significantly surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 25.57 percentage points [23][24] Group 2 - The demand for computing power is surging due to the rapid deployment of large AI models, with domestic computing power expected to break through as local AI chip companies accelerate their market presence [4][31] - The AI-driven expansion in storage is leading to a sustained shortage and price increases, with major storage companies raising prices significantly since September 2025 [4][23] - The semiconductor equipment sector is benefiting from increased capital expenditure in wafer expansion, with domestic alternatives gaining traction [4][31] Group 3 - Advanced packaging is becoming a crucial method for enhancing chip performance, aligning with the characteristics of AI development, and is expected to expand significantly [4][5] - The semiconductor industry is positioned to leverage AI as a core driver of growth, with opportunities across computing power, storage, equipment, and advanced packaging [5][30] - The overall profitability of the semiconductor sector has improved, with gross margins and net margins showing year-on-year increases [16][21]

Core Insights - The DRAM supply chain is facing significant challenges, particularly in the server memory segment, with major hyperscale vendors in the US and China receiving only 70% of their ordered server DRAM [2] - Demand for traditional DDR5 RDIMM is exceeding supply, driven by a shift in production capacity towards AI-related advanced nodes by major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix [2][3] - The market is experiencing a surge in spot prices, with DDR5 16 GB modules rising from $7-$8 to around $13 since late September, indicating a tightening supply situation [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Order fulfillment rates for channel vendors and smaller OEMs are low, around 35%-40%, as larger hyperscale companies secure fixed allocations, forcing smaller clients to the spot market or to wait until 2026 for capacity [3] - Micron has warned that DRAM is a "supply-constrained industry," with supply growth lagging behind demand expected to continue into next year [3] - TrendForce indicates that DDR4 prices are slowly declining, but the overall DRAM market is expected to see price increases of 13%-18% in Q4 [6][7] Price Trends - Recent price hikes in the DRAM market have reached up to 30%, with some manufacturers pausing quotes for certain DRAM and NAND flash products due to pricing pressures [5][6] - Kingston's DDR4 desktop memory module prices have more than doubled since March, reflecting the broader trend of rising memory prices [6] - TrendForce predicts that the shortage of DDR4 will persist until mid-2026, with overall DRAM prices expected to rise by 13%-18% in Q4 [6][7] Future Outlook - The price surge is driven by two main factors: the announcement of DDR4 discontinuation and stockpiling due to US-China tariff tensions [7] - The demand for DDR5 RDIMM, LPDDR5X, and HBM is expected to increase significantly as North American data centers accelerate AI server investments [9][10] - Despite efforts to adjust production capacity, uncertainties remain regarding supply stability for DDR5 due to technical issues and prioritization of HBM4 production [10]