公司点评 | 小鹏汽车-W Q3 总毛利继续提升，AI 业务及全球化战略提速 小鹏汽车-W（9868.HK）跟踪点评 事件：2025Q3 小鹏汽车营收 203.8 亿，同比 101.8%；毛利率 20.1%，同比提 升 4.8pct；净亏损 3.8 亿。 Q3 车端营收继续高增。Q3 车端营收 180.5 亿，同比 105%；毛利率 13.1%， 同比增长是由于持续降本，环比下降是由于产品换代。2025Q3 服务及其他 利润率 74.6%，同环比均有增长，主要与技术研发服务收入相关。 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 证券研究报告 全新 IRON 人形机器人亮相并规划量产。科技日上，公司全新一代 IRON 人 形机器人以高度拟人的外形、猫步般轻盈的步态，惊艳亮相。IRON 将搭载 3 颗图灵 AI 芯片与全固态电池，并优先进入导览、导购、导巡等商业场景。 小鹏目标是在 2026 年底实现高阶人形机器人的规模量产。 欧洲本地化生产项目启动，全球化战略提速。2025 年 1-9 月，小鹏汽车海 外累计交付量突破 2.9 万台，同比增加 125%。小鹏已正式在印尼、奥地利 落子本地化生产布局，并启 ...

在决定做一家面向全球的具身智能公司后，小鹏汽车在2025广州车展上不仅展出了小鹏X9超级增程、全新小鹏P7 等多款车型，还同步带来了全新一代IRON人形机器人、自研图灵芯片等，希望借助车展呈现目前小鹏汽车的布 局。 小鹏汽车董事长兼首席执行官何小鹏在接受新京报贝壳财经等媒体采访时称，小鹏很快会进入人形机器人量产阶 段，期望能率先切入商业场景。在规模化量产的同时，做到机器人的销售价格和汽车接近。 就在11月20日车展前一天，小鹏汽车还将首款增程车型推向市场，从纯电转向"纯电+超级增程"双技术路线并行。 "我认为在相当长的时间内，这个世界的能源结构应该是由'纯电+混动'组合，而增程/混动则最适合无人驾驶，甚 至是将来机器人的体系。所以，我决定要坚定投入做全新一代的增程。我们也看到，过去一年里也有好几个友商 都在走这条路。"何小鹏说。 谈及对明年车市的预测，他表示，每一家车企，谁都是战战兢兢。唯一敢确定的是2026年汽车市场的竞争会更加 残酷和血腥。 小鹏汽车董事长兼首席执行官何小鹏。受访者供图 何小鹏：2023年我去了很多国家，发现还有很多国家和区域，在未来很多年内电力设施还是会很差。我认为在相 当长的时间内，这 ...

Core Insights - The 23rd Guangzhou International Auto Show showcases a strong presence of local automotive companies and technology firms, highlighting the integration of traditional automotive manufacturing with advanced technology solutions [1][2] - The event emphasizes the trend of cross-industry collaboration, with companies like Huawei providing smart automotive solutions, indicating a shift towards a more integrated automotive ecosystem [2] Group 1: Local Automotive Companies - GAC Group occupies an entire exhibition hall, showcasing brands such as GAC Toyota, GAC Honda, GAC Trumpchi, Aion, and Haobo, and highlights the achievements of its "Panyu Action" reform initiative [1] - BYD continues to dominate the A Zone 2.1 hall, presenting its own brand along with sub-brands like Yangwang, Fangchengbao, and Tengshi [1] Group 2: Technology Integration - Huawei, despite its stance of "not manufacturing cars," has a significant presence at the auto show, promoting its HarmonyOS and smart automotive solutions, which are being adopted by various manufacturers [2] - The event features innovative products such as Xiaopeng's newly launched X9 super-range extender vehicle, humanoid robots, and flying cars, showcasing the company's commitment to expanding its technological offerings [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The automotive industry is experiencing rapid integration and extension, driven by Guangdong's robust industrial system, extensive supply chain, and strong R&D capabilities [2] - The Guangzhou Auto Show has evolved into a platform not just for automobiles but also for showcasing cross-industry collaborations and technological advancements [2]

Core Insights - The event surrounding the unveiling of the IRON humanoid robot by XPeng Motors has transcended technical debates, evolving into a broader discussion about trust, technology, and the future of the automotive industry [1][5] - XPeng's efforts to validate the IRON robot reflect a significant shift in the automotive sector, moving from traditional competition focused on hardware to a comprehensive transformation towards building future transportation ecosystems [1][4] Industry Transformation - The automotive market has shifted from hardware-centric competition, exemplified by brands like Volkswagen and Toyota, to a landscape where electric and intelligent vehicles dominate, allowing new entrants to redefine competition [2][3] - XPeng's product matrix, including the X9 range-extended vehicle and the IRON robot, showcases a cross-disciplinary approach that integrates AI and sensor technologies, indicating a move towards a holistic mobility service provider model [2][3] Technological Integration - The underlying logic of automotive companies venturing into robotics is based on decades of technological accumulation in areas such as intelligent control and multi-sensor integration, which align with the core needs of humanoid robots [3] - XPeng's commitment to full-stack self-research, from AI chip design to material development for the IRON robot, exemplifies a high level of control and innovation, enabling precise coordination of the robot's movements [3] Competitive Landscape - The trend of multi-dimensional strategies in the automotive industry is not unique to XPeng; other companies like Hyundai and Chery are also integrating robotics into their operations, indicating a collective industry shift [4] - The future competitiveness of automotive companies will hinge on their ability to create a complete ecosystem that combines hardware, software, and service scenarios, moving beyond mere vehicle sales [4][5] Conclusion - The process of validating the IRON robot serves as a metaphor for the automotive industry's broader transformation, emphasizing the need for innovation and adaptability in the face of skepticism [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 101.8% year-on-year for Q3 2025, reaching 20.38 billion yuan, with automotive business revenue growing by 105.3% [3][4]. - The gross margin for the automotive business improved to 13.1%, driven by a decrease in costs, although it saw a slight decline from the previous quarter due to product updates [4]. - The company is optimistic about future performance, projecting Q4 2025 automotive sales between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.6% to 44.3% [5]. Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2025 revenue was 20.38 billion yuan, with automotive revenue at 18.05 billion yuan [3][4]. - The total gross profit for Q3 2025 was 4.1 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.1% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was a loss of 150 million yuan, marking a significant reduction in losses of 90.1% year-on-year [3]. Cost Management - R&D expenses for Q3 2025 were 2.43 billion yuan, up 48.7% year-on-year, reflecting increased costs associated with new product launches [5]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 2.49 billion yuan, a 52.6% increase year-on-year, primarily due to higher sales commissions and marketing costs [5]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 78.13 billion yuan in 2025, 110.81 billion yuan in 2026, and 131.64 billion yuan in 2027, with expected net profits turning positive in 2026 [8][9]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on intelligent products, including the launch of Robotaxi and the new generation of IRON humanoid robots, which are expected to enhance its market position [7][8].

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q3 revenue of 20.38 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with a net loss of 380 million RMB, marking the smallest quarterly loss in five years [1] - The company plans to invest nearly 5 billion RMB in AI by 2025, with R&D expenses rising to 2.43 billion RMB, a 48.7% increase from the previous year [1] - Xiaopeng expects Q4 delivery volumes between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 36.6% to 44.3% [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Xiaopeng's total revenue reached 40.8 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.3%, and net losses reduced from 10.38 billion RMB to 5.79 billion RMB [2] - Historical net losses from 2021 to 2024 were 4.9 billion RMB, 9.1 billion RMB, 10.38 billion RMB, and 5.79 billion RMB respectively [2] - The company reported a cash and cash equivalents total of 48.33 billion RMB as of September 30, 2025, providing ample liquidity for competitive pressures and R&D investments [1] Strategic Developments - Xiaopeng has implemented internal reforms, including anti-corruption measures and budget cuts, following significant personnel changes in management [2] - The company has adopted a low-price strategy, launching the MONAM03 at a starting price of 119,800 RMB, aiming to penetrate the mainstream market [3] - Plans for 2025 include a major product overhaul, with new offerings across a wide price range, including full-size SUVs [3] Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng is transitioning towards becoming a technology company, with plans to launch three Robotaxi models by 2026 [3] - The company has introduced the IRON humanoid robot and is advancing its flying car business, emphasizing the technological synergies between these ventures [4] - Despite the promising prospects for Robotaxi and flying cars, regulatory uncertainties and public safety concerns remain challenges for commercial implementation [4]

评一周车股，察百态车市。 经历一周的拉扯，A股最终还是没能守住4000点的高位，在本周的最后一天，痛失4000点，给充满希望的市场吹来一阵寒意。 截止周五收盘，两市交易缩紧，沪指微跌0.97%，报3990.49点，深成指小幅下挫1.93%，报13216.03点，创业板下跌2.82%，报3111.51点，两市全天成交金 额19581亿元，较前日下跌4%，但依然维持在20000亿元左右，市场交易密集。 在一片肃杀的氛围下，市场也难见暖意，3326支股票下跌，更有10支股票跌停，面对寒意的市场，主力资金选择大幅流出，单日净流出964亿元，为本周 之最，更是超过月平均值的两倍。 当然，市场也不全是寒意，91支涨停的股票证明市场依然充满潜力，根据Wind统计，今年11月以来，A股市场创历史新高的股票已经有124支，电子、电 力，人工智能和汽车制造都是热门行业。 例如AI芯片的寒武纪，不只股价屡创新高，更一不小心超越了"酱香科技"的贵州茅台，登顶A股最贵的股票，创下6000亿元的市值，虽然在全球半导体面 对存储危机下，寒武纪的股价下滑明显，但依然处在1300元每股的高位。 大众汽车将采购小鹏的图灵AI芯片和VLA大模型， ...

Group 1: FOF Funds and QDII Growth - FOF funds have seen a significant increase in fundraising, with one new fund raising nearly 1.8 billion yuan, marking a 400% increase compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] - The total scale of FOF funds has surpassed 200 billion yuan this year, although it remains small compared to the overall fund market of over 36 trillion yuan [1] - QDII funds have also experienced rapid growth, with total shares reaching approximately 680.97 billion, up from about 571.12 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a net subscription of 109.8 billion [1] - The highest annual return for QDII funds has reached 121.70%, attracting more attention from investors [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Fund Growth and Market Dynamics - The scale of Hong Kong funds has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, driven by increased investment enthusiasm [2] - The total shares of the Hang Seng Technology ETF have grown by 32.53 billion from October 1 to November 12 [2] - The concentration of holdings in Hong Kong funds has increased, which may lead to significant fluctuations in net value during the year-end market rebalancing phase [2] Group 3: Gold Investment Trends - Banks have raised the minimum investment threshold for gold savings to 1,500 yuan, the highest in history, following a rise in international gold prices [3] - The adjustment in investment thresholds reflects a growing concern over risks associated with gold price volatility [3] Group 4: A-Share Company Dividends - As of November 12, 37 A-share companies have completed their third-quarter dividend distributions, totaling over 6.3 billion yuan [4] - The increase in cash dividends is attributed to regulatory guidance and improved corporate earnings, transforming dividends from optional to feasible strategies for more companies [4] Group 5: Human-shaped Robot Industry Outlook - The human-shaped robot industry is expected to experience a significant breakthrough in 2026, likened to the "iPhone moment" for the sector [5] - Companies involved in the human-shaped robot supply chain are anticipated to benefit from the upcoming mass production era [5] Group 6: AI in Animation and Drama Industry - The animation and drama sector has seen a surge, with over 3,000 new works launched in the first half of the year, resulting in a 12-fold increase in revenue [6] - The market size for this sector is projected to exceed 20 billion yuan this year, driven by the impact of AI technology [6] Group 7: Internet Companies and Payment Licenses - Internet companies have been actively increasing capital for their payment subsidiaries, with significant increases reported by companies like Douyin and Tencent [7] - The regulatory environment has prompted these companies to enhance compliance and expand into high-capital businesses such as cross-border payments [7] Group 8: Global Wine Production Trends - Global wine production is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, but it will remain below average levels due to extreme weather conditions [8] - The forecasted production for 2025 is approximately 23.2 billion liters, a 3% increase from 2024, which recorded the lowest production since 1961 [8] Group 9: Corporate Management Changes - Several companies, including Keg Precision Machinery and Haowei Group, have undergone significant management changes, with new appointments and resignations [9][10] - These changes may impact company operations and strategic direction moving forward [9][10] Group 10: Financial Performance of Retail Companies - Gaoxin Retail reported a revenue of 30.5 billion yuan for the first half of the fiscal year, a decrease of 12.12%, resulting in a net loss of 1.23 billion yuan [11] - The decline in revenue is attributed to intensified market competition and consumer fatigue [11]

Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms are optimistic about the A-share market continuing its upward trend into 2026, emphasizing the increasing importance of fundamentals and the potential for more industries nearing performance improvement inflection points [1] - The market style in 2026 may see a rebalancing, with opportunities in both growth and value styles [1] - Key investment themes for 2026 identified by brokerages include technology growth, overseas expansion, and cyclical reversals, along with attention to policy cycles, real estate cycles, and capital market reforms [1] Group 2: Smartphone Industry Developments - Major smartphone manufacturers like Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Honor are launching flagship AI-enabled smartphones, which are expected to accelerate the high-end smartphone market and drive a wave of upgrades in the industry [2] - The release of new AI smartphones is anticipated to benefit the entire smartphone supply chain as it undergoes rapid upgrades [2] Group 3: Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot industry is projected to experience a significant breakthrough in 2026, with companies like XPeng Motors and Tesla advancing their production capabilities [3] - Analysts believe that 2026 could mark a pivotal moment for the global humanoid robot industry, leading to large-scale production and benefiting related supply chain companies [3] Group 4: Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on enhancing the accessibility of the capital market for foreign institutions, aiming to deepen investment and financing reforms [4] - The CSRC plans to improve the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and expand cross-border investment products, thereby increasing foreign participation in the Chinese capital market [4] Group 5: A-Share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, with significant trading activity observed in defensive sectors such as banking, insurance, and pharmaceuticals [5] - Recent trading data indicates a mixed performance among major stocks, with a notable increase in the share prices of large-cap companies [5] Group 6: Consumer Electronics and Robotics - Consumer electronics and optical companies are accelerating the launch of new products, particularly in AR glasses and drones, while also expanding into high-growth sectors like robotics and automotive electronics [6] - Companies are strategically positioning themselves in emerging markets to inject new growth momentum into the industry [6] Group 7: A-Share Ratings Adjustments - Brokerages have been adjusting ratings for A-share stocks, with 23 stocks receiving upgrades and 40 experiencing downgrades since the end of October [7] - The electronics sector has seen the highest number of upgrades, while consumer and pharmaceutical sectors show significant rating divergence [7] Group 8: Foreign Investment in A-Shares - There is a growing trend of foreign institutions increasing their investment in Chinese stocks, supported by regulatory signals for higher levels of market openness [8] - Factors such as overall profit recovery, net inflows of external funds, and improvements in capital market infrastructure are contributing to a positive mid-term outlook for the market [8] Group 9: Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Price Surge - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been experiencing significant fluctuations, with some market quotes reaching 150,000 yuan per ton, doubling since mid-October [9] - The price surge is attributed to a mismatch between supply and demand, with increased demand from downstream markets and a contraction in supply due to the exit of smaller companies [9] Group 10: Payment Industry Developments - Internet companies are increasingly investing in payment services, as evidenced by the capital increase of Zhejiang Vipshop Payment Service Co., which doubled its registered capital [10] - The payment industry is shifting focus from scale to capital and compliance, with companies enhancing their risk management capabilities [10] Group 11: Huawei's Patent Revenue - Huawei reported a record high in patent licensing revenue, reaching 630 million USD, reflecting the company's significant role in the global innovation ecosystem [11] - The company's R&D investment for 2024 is projected to be 179.7 billion yuan, accounting for 20.8% of its total revenue [11] Group 12: A-Share Dividend Distribution - As of November 12, 37 A-share companies have completed their third-quarter dividend distributions, totaling over 6.3 billion yuan in cash dividends [12] - The trend towards cash dividends is driven by regulatory guidance and improved corporate earnings, transforming dividends from optional to feasible strategies for more companies [12]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has experienced significant stock price increases, suggesting potential profitability and interest from large capital investors, rather than retail investors alone [2] Sales Growth - Xiaopeng Motors, along with NIO and Li Auto, is part of the first wave of new energy vehicle manufacturers, previously struggling with sales but showing improvement [3] - Despite sales growth, Xiaopeng's performance remains below the industry average, indicating reliance on overall market trends rather than internal mechanisms [5] - The company aims for a sales growth rate in 2024 that is double that of 2023, with projections of over 400,000 units sold by 2025, approaching profitability [5] Financial Performance - Xiaopeng's Q2 2025 financial report shows revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a 125.3% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 17.3% and a reduced net loss of 480 million yuan [7] - Cumulative revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 34.09 billion yuan, with deliveries exceeding 197,200 units, a 279% increase year-on-year [7] Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng is transitioning from a traditional car manufacturer to a technology company, with significant revenue from technology services, including a partnership with Volkswagen [8] - The introduction of AI technologies and new products, such as the AI-driven Robotaxi and humanoid robots, marks a shift in the company's focus [8][9] Market Expansion - Xiaopeng's export volume to Europe increased by 320% in the first half of 2025, with a growing presence in 28 countries through partnerships [10] - The company plans to expand its global footprint to over 60 countries by the end of 2025, with a strong focus on the European market [11] Revaluation - Given the significant changes and growth potential, Xiaopeng Motors is due for a revaluation, with its stock price reflecting optimistic market expectations [11]