智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，零跑汽车(09863)务实高效，预计公司2025-2027年实现营业 收入662.7、1041.2、1354.1亿元，同比增速为106%、57%、30%；实现归母净利润7.2、41.5、63.2亿 元，同比扭亏、+476%、+52%；EPS为0.51、2.92、4.45元，对应当前股价的PS估值分别为0.8、0.5、 0.4倍。看好公司未来发展，维持"增持"评级。 国海证券主要观点如下： 2026年1月，零跑汽车全系交付3.2万台，同比+27.4%，淡季表现较为稳健。展望2026年，公司将冲击 100万辆销量目标。 重磅新车型将陆续上市，品牌渠道建设提速 2026年零跑将推出包含D19、D99、A10在内多款新车等，覆盖从轿车、SUV到MPV的全品类。A10车 型定位全球车型，将同时在海内外市场开售；Lafa5 Ultra进一步加强运动定位；D19定位大六座SUV， 目标家庭客户；D99为旗下首款MPV产品，有望于年中上市交付。公司渠道建设提速，近期新增85家门 店。截至1月5日，全国门店总数达1068家，确保更多用户能够便捷体验零跑产品与服务。 新车型欧洲亮相，品牌全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The January 2026 performance of the new energy vehicle market was relatively flat, but new forces in the industry showed better year-on-year performance compared to the overall market [3]. Group 1: January Delivery Data - Leap Motor delivered 32,059 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 31.9% [2]. - Li Auto delivered 27,668 vehicles, down 7.5% year-on-year and down 37.5% month-on-month [7]. - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 96.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 14.2% [6]. - Zeekr delivered 23,852 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 99.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.3% [8]. - Xpeng delivered 20,011 vehicles, down 34.1% year-on-year and down 38.0% month-on-month [5]. - Xiaomi delivered over 39,000 vehicles in January [8]. Group 2: Market Performance Analysis - The total retail market for narrow passenger cars in January was approximately 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 20.4% but a slight year-on-year increase [3]. - The new energy vehicle retail market is expected to reach 800,000 units, with a penetration rate of 44.4% [3]. - The five sample new force car companies (excluding Xiaomi and Aion) delivered a total of 130,772 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% [3]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Leap Motor's growth is attributed to strong product offerings like the C10 and B01, with plans to launch new models in 2026 [4]. - Xpeng's delivery decline is noted, but the company plans to launch multiple new models in 2026 [5]. - NIO's delivery increase is supported by strong sales of the ES8 and new software updates enhancing user experience [6]. - Li Auto's stable sales are backed by the L series, with ongoing expansion in the charging infrastructure [7]. - Zeekr's growth is driven by the success of the 7X model and plans for new model launches [8]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The smart driving technology is accelerating, with companies like Xpeng and Huawei leading the charge in promoting intelligent driving features [9]. - The industry is expected to see a shift towards more affordable smart driving solutions, enhancing competitiveness against joint venture brands [9]. - The rise of intelligent capabilities is becoming a critical factor in competition among automakers, with a focus on autonomous driving and user acceptance [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the new energy vehicle sector, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The performance of the new energy vehicle market in January 2026 was relatively flat, with a total retail market size of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 20.4%, but a slight year-on-year increase. The penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 44.4% [4]. - Five key new energy vehicle companies (excluding Xiaomi and Aion) delivered a total of 130,772 vehicles in January, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 28.0%, outperforming the industry average [4]. - The report anticipates a stabilization and recovery in automotive demand post-Chinese New Year, driven by the rollout of local government subsidies and the introduction of new models [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Delivery Performance - Leap Motor delivered 32,059 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 31.9%. The strong performance is attributed to the competitive pricing of models C10 and B01 [5]. - Ideal Auto reported 27,668 vehicles delivered, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.5%. The company is focusing on enhancing user experience through software updates and expanding its service network [9]. - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 96.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 14.2%. The ES8 model was the top performer [6]. - Zeekr delivered 23,852 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 99.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.3% [10]. - Xpeng delivered 20,011 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 38.0% [6]. Market Trends - The report highlights the ongoing trend of intelligent driving technology adoption, with companies like Xpeng and Huawei leading the charge. The expectation is that advancements in intelligent driving will lower hardware costs and expand market access [12]. - The report suggests that the intelligent driving capabilities will become a key competitive factor for automakers, with a focus on companies that are leading in this area [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong intelligent driving capabilities and those that are well-positioned in the new energy vehicle supply chain. Specific companies highlighted include Geely, Xpeng, and BYD [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ambitious goals of Leap Motor, aiming to achieve annual sales of 4 million vehicles in the next decade and establish itself as a world-class automotive company [1][11]. Group 1: Leap Motor's Journey - Leap Motor was founded by Zhu Jiangming, who was nearly fifty at the time, making him the oldest founder among new car-making forces [2][3]. - The company set a lofty goal to become a world-class smart electric vehicle manufacturer shortly after its establishment in 2015 [4]. - Despite initial struggles, including low sales of its first models, Leap Motor has grown to nearly 600,000 annual sales and over 1 million cumulative deliveries [5][7]. - The company celebrated its tenth anniversary with a mindset of starting anew, as indicated by the book titled "Starting with the End" distributed at the event [5][11]. Group 2: Sales and Product Strategy - Leap Motor's sales strategy has focused on offering high-value vehicles, with the C series SUVs accounting for over 70% of sales [9][10]. - The company has successfully positioned itself as a "half-price Li Auto," leveraging competitive pricing and features to attract consumers [10]. - Leap Motor has achieved significant cost reductions through self-research and development, with over 65% of core components produced in-house, leading to a 10% cost reduction compared to outsourcing [10][11]. Group 3: Future Goals and Challenges - Zhu Jiangming has set a pragmatic target of reaching 1 million sales next year and 4 million in the next decade, emphasizing the need for Leap Motor to evolve beyond being labeled as a "new force" [11][12]. - The company plans to collaborate with FAW to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and fill gaps in traditional automotive expertise [14]. - Leap Motor is launching high-end models, including the D19 SUV and D99 MPV, to diversify its product offerings and target the premium market [15][16]. Group 4: Channel Strategy and Market Positioning - Leap Motor's initial rapid expansion through small dealers has led to challenges in maintaining brand standards and service quality, necessitating a shift towards larger, more capable dealers [18][21]. - The company has faced difficulties with its direct sales model, which has resulted in significant losses, prompting a reevaluation of its dealership strategy [20][21]. - Leap Motor aims to refine its dealer network by assessing dealer capabilities and potentially closing underperforming locations [20][21]. Group 5: Comparison with BYD - Leap Motor aspires to emulate BYD's success, which achieved sales of 4.27 million vehicles in 2024, highlighting the need for Leap Motor to enhance its self-research capabilities and market presence [23][27]. - Both companies share a focus on cost control and supply chain efficiency, with Leap Motor currently achieving 65% self-research compared to BYD's 75% [25][26]. - Leap Motor's international sales strategy is still developing, with a reliance on Stellantis for overseas distribution, which may limit brand visibility and service consistency [28][29].

Group 1: Fixed Income Analysis - The report analyzes the recent increase in borrowing of local government bonds and provides insights into the reasons behind this trend and future market outlook [3][4] - As of January 6, the net borrowing volume of local government bonds has increased, with the top five being Henan, Jiangxi, Shandong, Hunan, and Hebei, all with a 30-year maturity [5] - Institutions are primarily borrowing local bonds to take long positions on the spread between local government bonds and national bonds, with the spread reaching a relative low of 14.8 basis points on December 29, 2025 [5][6] Group 2: Great Wall Motors Analysis - Great Wall Motors reported a total sales volume of 1.324 million vehicles in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, achieving a record high for the company [7][8] - The WEY brand saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 86.3%, while the Haval brand maintained a steady performance with a 7.4% increase [8][9] - The company aims to continue its high-end upgrade strategy with the launch of new models and expects to maintain strong sales momentum in 2026 [9][10] Group 3: Leap Motor Analysis - Leap Motor achieved a total delivery of 597,000 vehicles in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 103.1%, and aims for a target of 1 million vehicles in 2026 [11][12] - The B and C series products have been well-received, contributing to the company's upward structural upgrade, with new models expected to enhance the product lineup [12] - The company has expanded its overseas presence, achieving over 60,000 deliveries in international markets, and plans to accelerate local production in 2026 [12][13] Group 4: Leshushih Analysis - Leshushih has established itself as a leading player in the African hygiene products market, focusing on local manufacturing and a strong distribution network [14][15] - The African market for baby diapers and sanitary products is projected to grow from $3.8 billion in 2024 to $5.6 billion by 2029, driven by increasing penetration and a young population [15][16] - The company has built a robust local supply chain and brand recognition, holding significant market shares in key product categories [16][17] Group 5: AI and Manufacturing Policy - The report discusses the recent policy initiative aimed at integrating AI into manufacturing, with goals to develop industrial intelligence and enhance software capabilities by 2027 [18][19] - The initiative aims to create 1,000 industrial intelligent entities and promote the application of AI across various manufacturing processes, potentially increasing efficiency and reducing costs [19][20] - The industrial software market in China is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan by 2029, driven by the ongoing digital transformation and policy support [21][22]

Core Insights - Leap Motor celebrated its 10th anniversary, showcasing its development and future strategic plans, including the global debut of its flagship SUV D19 and MPV D99 [1] - The company emphasizes "full self-research" as its core driving force, achieving significant technological advancements and a competitive self-sufficient parts system [2] - Leap Motor has established a diverse product lineup under 300,000 yuan, covering various vehicle types and offering both pure electric and extended-range options [3] - The company has expanded its global presence, establishing a network in 35 countries and regions, with over 800 overseas sales and service outlets [4] Group 1 - Leap Motor has delivered over 1.2 million vehicles and achieved monthly sales exceeding 70,000 units, marking a transition to sustainable profitability [1] - The company maintains a high R&D personnel ratio of 90% during its initial phase, focusing on key areas such as vehicle architecture and autonomous driving systems [2] - Leap Motor's strategy includes a dual approach of "vehicle + Tier" to enhance its unique development model in the Chinese automotive industry [2] Group 2 - The company has successfully completed its product layout across four major series and has a robust sales and service network with over 1,800 outlets [3] - Leap Motor's collaboration with Stellantis Group has accelerated its international expansion, enhancing its brand presence globally [4] - The company aims to leverage its technological advancements and manufacturing efficiency to strengthen its market competitiveness in the global electric vehicle industry [4]

Group 1 - Geely Auto exceeded its 2025 sales target of 3 million units, achieving over 3.02 million units, and aims for a sales target of 3.45 million units in 2026, representing a 14% year-on-year growth [1] - Dongfeng Group has set a sales target of 3.25 million units for 2026, an increase of 250,000 units from its 2025 target of 3 million units; the 2025 sales figure is expected to be around 2.5 million units based on the first 11 months' sales of 2.204 million units [1] Group 2 - Leap Motor performed exceptionally in 2025, surpassing its initial sales target of 500,000 units with actual sales close to 600,000 units, making it the top seller among new energy vehicle companies; for 2026, it targets 1 million units, a 68% increase [6] - Xiaomi Auto achieved sales of 410,000 units in 2025, exceeding its target of 350,000 units, and aims for a sales target of 550,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 34% year-on-year growth; it plans to launch four new models in 2026, including two range-extended SUVs [6] Group 3 - NIO's actual sales in 2025 were approximately 326,000 units, falling short of its target of 440,000 units; however, models like the L90 and the new ES8 performed well, stabilizing the company's position; for 2026, NIO targets sales between 456,000 and 489,000 units, indicating a year-on-year growth of 40%-50% [7] - The continued implementation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2026 is expected to stimulate automotive consumption, with industry experts predicting overall market growth exceeding zero growth in 2026 [7]

Core Insights - Leap Motor celebrated its 10th anniversary on December 28, 2025, and announced a strategic partnership with FAW, acquiring a 5% stake for approximately 3.74 billion yuan, aiming to become a world-class automaker [1][2] - The company reported a total sales volume of 597,000 units for 2025, marking a significant milestone with expectations for its first annual profit [1][2] - Leap Motor's long-term goals include achieving sales of 1 million units by 2026 and 4 million units in the future, supported by a new vehicle cycle and strategic collaborations [1][3] Company Development - From 2015 to 2025, Leap Motor transitioned from an IT cross-border player to a leading new energy vehicle manufacturer, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 1.2 million units and a peak monthly sales of over 70,000 units [2] - The company has established 17 major component factories, achieving a 65% self-manufacturing ratio for core components, which provides a cost advantage of approximately 10% compared to external procurement [2] - The LEAP platform allows for high component commonality, significantly reducing R&D and manufacturing costs for models like C10 and C16 [2] Strategic Partnerships - FAW's investment highlights strategic recognition of Leap Motor, with funds allocated for R&D, operational capital, and brand development [2] - A collaboration agreement was signed between FAW and Leap Motor for joint development of powertrains, with the first model expected to be produced in 2026 [3] Future Outlook - Leap Motor aims to transition from a follower to a leader in the automotive industry, with a focus on technology leadership, product matrix expansion, and a cooperative ecosystem [3] - The company plans to host annual technology days starting in 2026 to enhance supply chain integration and factory construction [3] Financial Projections - Adjusted sales forecasts for 2025-2027 are 600,000, 1,040,000, and 1,420,000 units respectively, with revenue projections of 68.3 billion, 123.5 billion, and 168.8 billion yuan [3] - The net profit estimates for the same period are 660 million, 5.11 billion, and 8.25 billion yuan, reflecting a significant adjustment in expectations [3] - The target price for Leap Motor is set at 83.69 HKD, reflecting a 30% premium on the estimated valuation due to anticipated growth and profitability [3]

Core Insights - Leap Motor celebrated its 10th anniversary, showcasing its journey in the automotive industry and unveiling its strategic plan for the next decade [1] - The company has achieved significant milestones, including over 1.2 million cumulative deliveries and a projected annual sales of nearly 600,000 units by 2025, positioning itself as a leader among new automotive forces in China [1] Group 1: Company Achievements - Leap Motor has established a global network of over 1,800 sales outlets, with more than 800 located overseas, and has entered 35 countries and regions [1] - The company has achieved consecutive quarterly profitability and expects to export 60,000 units in 2025, aiming to be the top seller among new forces in overseas markets [1] Group 2: Technological and Product Development - Leap Motor's core advantage lies in its "full self-research" approach, which has led to a competitive in-house parts system and a high R&D personnel ratio of 80% [2] - The company has developed a comprehensive product lineup, including the A, B, C, and D series, covering various vehicle types and offering both pure electric and range-extended options [2] Group 3: Future Goals and Strategy - Leap Motor aims to become a world-class automaker with an annual sales target of 4 million vehicles, setting 2026 as the year to break the 1 million sales mark [3] - The company will focus on five key areas for the next decade: technological innovation, product innovation, ecosystem development, localized industrial layout, and refined marketing management [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company aims to become a world-class automotive enterprise, targeting sales of 1 million units in 2026 and 4 million units in the long term [4][5] - The company has established a comprehensive self-research and platform-based manufacturing system, achieving a sales volume of approximately 597,000 units in 2025, marking a significant improvement in its fundamentals [2][3] - The strategic investment from FAW Group, acquiring approximately 5% equity for about HKD 3.74 billion, highlights the recognition of the company's long-term strategy [3] Sales and Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve sales of 600,000, 1,040,000, and 1,420,000 units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 68.3 billion, RMB 123.5 billion, and RMB 168.8 billion [5][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 6.6 million, RMB 51.1 million, and RMB 82.5 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11] Strategic Developments - The company has signed a powertrain cooperation agreement with FAW, focusing on the joint development of range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the first model expected to be mass-produced in 2026 [3] - The D-series models, including D19 and D99, are set to launch in 2026, enhancing the company's high-end product lineup [3][4] Market Expansion - The company plans to leverage Stellantis' distribution channels to export over 60,000 vehicles in 2025, entering 35 countries with more than 800 overseas stores [2][4] - The strategic cooperation with FAW and Stellantis is expected to drive growth and profitability during the upcoming new vehicle cycle [4]