就在两年前，华尔街还在担忧ChatGPT的横空出世将瓦解谷歌的搜索护城河，甚至有人预言这家互联网 科技巨头将面临"柯达时刻"。然而，随着其2025财年第四季度及全年财务报告发布，扎实的业绩数据已 然回应了此前市场的种种疑虑。 年报显示，公司全年营收达到4028.4亿美元，同比增长15%。净利润达到1321.7亿美元，同比增长 32%，利润率不降反升，这在科技巨头大规模投资AI的阶段显得格外突出。 第四季度营收为1138.3亿美元，同比增长18%，净利润344.6亿美元，同比增长29.8%，超出市场预期。 首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai）在财报电话会中将其称为"表现极为出色的一个季度"。 增长的核心驱动力来自谷歌云业务。第四季度，谷歌云营收达到176.64亿美元，同比增长48%，超出分 析师预期9%以上。这一增长远高于云计算行业平均增速，也明显快于竞争对手微软Azure同期表现。 2025年对谷歌而言是一个标志性年份。 美东时间2月4日盘后，谷歌母公司Alphabet发布2025年财报，全年营收达到4028.4亿美元，首次站上四 千亿美元关口。在激烈的AI竞赛中，这家硅谷巨头依然掌握着主动 ...

2026年伊始，全球经济正回归长期潜在增长轨道，信贷逐步修复，市场信心边际回升。瑞银全球经济和策略研究主管卡普顿（Arend Kapteyn）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，在利差收窄、汇率波动有限且市场流动性充足的背景下，股票仍是最具优势的资产类别，美 股今年预计可涨约10%，欧洲与日本市场也有望录得约8%的涨幅。 他对中国经济保持乐观：新兴经济部门已贡献约四分之一的增长，是推动整体经济的重要动力。他建议投资者在新兴市场中重点关注中国 与巴西，这不仅可获取AI相关敞口，也兼顾估值与盈利增长优势。 卡普顿。资料图 中国在全球新经济领域领先 南方财经：我们把目光转向中国。怎么看中国经济前景？未来推动经济增长的主要动力会来自哪些方面？ 卡普顿：现在还处在年初阶段，我们的预测通常还会经历多次调整。 我们认为，新兴经济部门对整体经济增长的贡献，已经接近四分之一。从重要性来看，这些新经济领域的影响已超过房地产行业。然而， 这些变化并未充分反映在我们用于预测的整体数据中。因此，如果仅看先前的预测结果，增长似乎并不强劲；但结合我们实际观察到的经 济运行情况，我认为真实的经济表现要强劲得多。 你可以从不同角度去验证这些新兴经济 ...

李宇嘉（广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员） 今年1月，楼市并未出现春节前季节性转淡的走势，反而是"淡季不淡"甚至创出阶段性新高。克而瑞数 据显示，2026年1月全国重点13城二手房成交面积环比上升16%，同比增长33%，相比上年月均增长 18%。热点城市热度更明显，北京二手房网签连续三个月稳定在1.4万套以上，上海二手房交易创5年同 期新高，深圳二手房中介签约创下近10个月新高。 除了交易量反弹外，1月份的楼市还有几个特征，一是并未出现过去反弹时期交易和挂牌"双攀升"的走 势，而是"交易上升、挂牌下降"的健康态势。机构统计的京沪深二手住房挂牌量相比去年12月均有不同 程度的下降。二是二手住房价格下跌的势头得到缓解。中指百城数据显示，1月二手住宅均价环比下跌 0.85%，跌幅较上月收窄了0.12个百分点。 当然，1月份新房市场表现相对弱于二手房市场。主要原因在于，开发商冲刺全年业绩结束，性价比高 的热销房源供应下降、促销有所减弱。 根据各方机构和住建部门网签数据，将一手房和二手房加总来看，一线城市总的住房交易量同比2025年 1月份，增幅在8%-12%，二线热点城市也类似，呈现整体交易稳定的态势。1月份二手房交 ...

尽管消费市场总体平稳向好，但仍存在一些制约潜力释放的瓶颈问题。例如，部分地区消费环境透明度 不足、市场失信行为时有发生；同时，部分领域的商品与服务在品质、标准上存在不均，一些新业态、 新模式的发展也亟需完善监管。这些因素会在一定程度上影响消费者的信心与意愿，凸显了进一步优化 消费环境、打通堵点的重要性。 2月5日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍市场监管服务经济高质量发展有关情况。国家市场监督管 理总局相关负责人在会上强调，下一步将以放心消费集聚区建设为载体，出台放心消费标准、放心消费 主体培育等政策文件，培育一大批带动面广、显示度高的放心商圈、放心市场、放心景区，让消费者可 感可及。 营造放心消费的良好市场秩序，有利于畅通供需循环、释放消费潜力，对于稳定社会预期、增强经济内 生动力具有深远意义。当前，中国经济已经进入高质量发展新阶段，内需成为经济增长的主要拉动力。 2025年，我国社会消费品零售总额规模首次突破50万亿元，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达到 52%，消费压舱石作用稳固。随着扩大服务消费的政策持续多点发力，服务供给更加优质多元，消费新 场景不断涌现，消费潜力得到加速释放。同时，网络消费持续向好 ...

卡普顿：现在还处在年初阶段，我们的预测通常还会经历多次调整。 2026年伊始，全球经济正回归长期潜在增长轨道，信贷逐步修复，市场信心边际回升。瑞银全球经济和 策略研究主管卡普顿（Arend Kapteyn）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，在利差收窄、汇率波动有限 且市场流动性充足的背景下，股票仍是最具优势的资产类别，美股今年预计可涨约10%，欧洲与日本市 场也有望录得约8%的涨幅。 他对中国经济保持乐观：新兴经济部门已贡献约四分之一的增长，是推动整体经济的重要动力。他建议 投资者在新兴市场中重点关注中国与巴西，这不仅可获取AI相关敞口，也兼顾估值与盈利增长优势。 同时，他提醒，投资者仍需关注美国潜在的财政刺激、劳动力市场结构性风险以及整体不确定性，这些 因素可能成为全球市场的主要风险；相比之下，地缘政治因素虽然难以预测，但对金融市场的直接冲击 或相对有限。 中国在全球新经济领域领先 南方财经：我们把目光转向中国。怎么看中国经济前景？未来推动经济增长的主要动力会来自哪些方 面？ 我们认为，新兴经济部门对整体经济增长的贡献，已经接近四分之一。从重要性来看，这些新经济领域 的影响已超过房地产行业。然而，这些变化并未充 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing significant turbulence due to fears that AI may disrupt the SaaS industry, leading to a sharp sell-off in SaaS stocks following the release of an AI tool by Anthropic [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - On February 3, the combined market value of two S&P indices tracking software, financial data, and exchange stocks dropped by approximately $300 billion [1]. - The Hong Kong SaaS index fell by 6.39% on February 4, resulting in a total market value loss of nearly HKD 150 billion [1]. - Major SaaS stocks in Hong Kong, such as Kingdee International and Kingsoft, saw declines of 12.64% and 5.14%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Broader Market Reactions - The sell-off in the software sector affected the entire Hang Seng Tech Index, which dropped by 1.84%, with notable declines in Tencent (3.96%), Alibaba (0.93%), and NetEase (3.32%) [2]. - The A-share SaaS index also fell by 2.61%, with companies like Sangfor Technologies and Yonyou Network experiencing significant losses [2]. - The U.S. SaaS sector had already begun to decline on February 3, with a drop of 4.12% in the Wind U.S. SaaS index, leading to a total market value loss exceeding $30 billion [2]. Group 3: Causes of Market Sentiment - The catalyst for the sell-off was the introduction of an AI plugin by Anthropic, which automates various legal tasks, raising concerns about the potential obsolescence of traditional SaaS offerings [3][4]. - The term "SaaSpocalypse" was coined by traders to describe the market's reaction to the perceived threat posed by AI to the SaaS business model [3]. Group 4: SaaS Business Model Insights - SaaS operates on a subscription model, providing services like CRM and ERP, which contrasts with traditional software sales [6]. - The low entry barriers and integration of industry best practices are key advantages of SaaS, making it appealing to small and medium-sized enterprises [6]. - While AI can enhance SaaS offerings by providing personalized solutions, it also presents challenges, particularly for smaller businesses that may struggle with AI deployment [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market may be overreacting, as SaaS still holds advantages in the SME sector, and a differentiation within the SaaS market is expected [7]. - Deloitte predicts that the SaaS business model may evolve, with a shift towards hybrid pricing models based on usage and outcomes by 2026 [7]. - Gartner forecasts that by 2030, at least 40% of enterprise SaaS spending will transition to usage-based or outcome-based pricing models [7].

Core Viewpoint - North Chip Life Technology Co., Ltd. has successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking the first successful listing of an innovative medical device company under the "fifth set of standards" [1][2] Company Overview - North Chip Life focuses on the research, development, production, and sales of innovative medical devices for precise diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, with 17 approved and in-development products as of September 30, 2025 [1][3] - The company was founded in December 2015 by Song Liang, who has over 18 years of experience in advanced medical imaging technology and cardiovascular interventional device development [2][3] Financial Performance - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 520 million to 560 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.24% to 76.88% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be between 78 million and 88 million yuan, marking a turnaround from previous losses [5] - The company raised a total of 999 million yuan in its IPO, with a net amount of 899 million yuan allocated primarily for the construction of an interventional medical device industrial base and R&D [5] Product Development and Market Position - North Chip Life has launched 11 products to the market and has 6 products in development, with its core IVUS and FFR systems having received special review and approval from national authorities [3][4] - The IVUS system is the first domestically approved 60MHz high-speed IVUS product and has captured a significant market share, while the FFR system holds a 30.6% share of the domestic market [4][5] R&D Investment - The company has consistently increased its R&D investment, totaling 389 million yuan over the past three years, with a workforce of 100 R&D personnel, over 40% of whom hold advanced degrees [3][5] Market Trends and Growth Potential - The domestic market for IVUS is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19.4% from 2024 to 2030 [8] - The overall market for precision-guided percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is anticipated to grow from 2.04 billion yuan in 2022 to 9.42 billion yuan by 2030, with IVUS and FFR systems expected to dominate this market [8] Competitive Landscape - North Chip Life faces competition from established international firms and other domestic manufacturers in the IVUS and FFR markets, which may impact its market share and pricing strategies [7][8] - The company is also subject to pressures from national procurement policies that could affect pricing and market dynamics [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market remains unstable, with significant price fluctuations in gold and silver, leading to varied strategies among companies and investors [1][9]. Group 1: Company Actions - Aok Holdings plans to sell up to 10,000 kilograms of silver based on market conditions, which was acquired in 2020, to improve its financial performance, expecting a profit contribution of approximately 52 million yuan from this sale [2]. - Emperor Entertainment Hotel confirmed the sale of its "gold bricks" for 99.7 million HKD, anticipating a profit of 90.2 million HKD, as part of a strategy to enhance its service offerings following the cessation of its gaming operations [3]. - The Secretary of the Board of Directors of Xinyi Silver Tin made headlines by purchasing 2 million yuan worth of shares at a limit-down price, indicating confidence in the company's future despite recent price drops [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The precious metals market has experienced a significant pullback, with London gold and silver seeing maximum declines of 21.37% and over 41% respectively since January 29 [9]. - Financing funds have aggressively bought shares of Hunan Gold, with net purchases reaching 1.8 billion yuan over two days, reflecting a strong interest in bottom-fishing during the price decline [8]. - The volatility of gold and silver remains high, with recent trading days showing fluctuations exceeding 10%, indicating ongoing market instability and potential for further price movements [10][11].

李宇嘉（广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员） 当然，1月份新房市场表现相对弱于二手房市场。主要原因在于，开发商冲刺全年业绩结束，性价比高 的热销房源供应下降、促销有所减弱。 由此，这有利于二手房和新房、刚需和改善的良性循环。受益于此，加上节后追求"开门红"业绩，新房 市场也将在春节后惯性回暖。但要注意的是，尽管有的城市二手房挂牌量有所下降，但其中有季节性撤 牌（春节后再挂牌）的因素。同时，即便挂牌量回落，但整体挂牌规模依旧在历史高位，二手房交易依 旧存在议价空间（只是议价空间收窄，降价卖房仍是主流）。 对新房市场来说，节后交易回升是确定性的，但置换链条循环的问题，还是要引起重视。以上海为例， 2025年200万总价以下的二手房交易占比上升，但200万到1000万总价中间各个价格段的交易占比都在下 根据各方机构和住建部门网签数据，将一手房和二手房加总来看，一线城市总的住房交易量同比2025年 1月份，增幅在8%-12%，二线热点城市也类似，呈现整体交易稳定的态势。1月份二手房交易超预期， 显示楼市预期开始好转。 同时，在2025年下半年以来这一轮调整后，很多区域二手住房价趋于友好。比如，广州天河北部分老旧 小区二 ...

但这绝不意味着，商品消费就已触及天花板，失去了增长空间。相反，我国是一个发展中国家，就消费领域扩大内需来说，两个"轮子"的 作用不可或缺：服务消费要做增量、补差距，商品消费要做提质、挖潜力，两者相辅相成，共同撑起内需增长的坚实底盘。从旅游这一 个"切口"来看，根据文旅部的数据，2025年，我国国内居民旅游出游超过65亿人次。旅游是服务消费，但游客带走的地方特色产品、智造 产品均是商品消费的延伸。服务消费与商品消费在经济发展的统计上需要做出区分，但实际上二者联系很紧，无法分离。 再回到广货，它曾是一代人的记忆。上世纪八九十年代，广东凭借改革开放的先发优势，成为"世界工厂"，"岭南衣、粤家电"风靡全国。 如今，传统广货的红利市场正在发生改变，但又出现了新的市场空间。广货能不能行天下，关键也要看它能不能在竞争中获得更大的市场 份额。 这其中，第一个是海外市场。过去广货出海，有一部分是代工、薄利多销，赚的是辛苦钱；现在已然不同，广东制造业早已完成转型升 级，大疆无人机、比亚迪（002594）新能源汽车、格力智能家电等，带着核心技术和自主品牌走向全球。依托跨境电商、海外仓等便捷渠 道，广货正从"产品出口"向"品牌出口" ...