高盛全球大宗商品研究团队在1月28日发布的报告中，显著上调了对黄金与铜两大关键金属的价格预 测，预计将直接驱动中国相关矿业企业的盈利预期系统性上修。报告指出，资源稀缺性溢价已实质性显 现。 据追风交易台，报告将2026年基准黄金目标价格上调10%-16%，预计当年均价可达4978美元/盎司；同 时将2026年LME铜价预测提升7%至12200美元/吨。基于上述价格调整，高盛相应将覆盖范围内的中国 铜与黄金企业2026-2027年盈利预测上调9%-33%。 研报强调，具备显著产量增长潜力的龙头企业将同时享受价格上行与产能扩张的双重红利，预计2026年 部分企业铜产量增幅可达9%-14%。从估值角度看，当前股价水平仍普遍反映较为保守的大宗商品价格 预期，若长期目标价位逐步兑现，当前板块估值具备明显安全边际与上行空间。 结构性配置推升金价，资金流入铸就铜稀缺溢价 高盛全球团队最新研究指出，大宗商品市场正步入结构性重估阶段，尤其体现在贵金属与工业金属领 域。 黄金方面，团队将2026年均价预测上调10%至4978美元/盎司，并将2027年上半年均价预测大幅调升16% 至5585美元/盎司。高盛分析指出，此前报告提示的 ...

各国央行购金速度放缓五分之一至863吨，低于2022至2024年每年超过1000吨的购买力度。与此同时，投资需求激增 84%至创纪录的2175吨，其中黄金ETF持仓增加801吨，结束连续四年流出，金条和金币购买量跃升16%至1374吨，创 12年新高。 世界黄金协会首席策略师John Reade表示： 世界黄金协会周四发布报告显示，2025年全球黄金需求首次突破5000吨，达到5002吨的历史新高，投资需求取代珠宝 消费成为最大需求来源，其中散户和机构成为购金主导力量。 央行在2022年、2023年或许在这一走势中发挥了非常重要的作用，但现在其他因素已经占据了主导地位， 今年最大的问题将是投资需求能否保持足够强劲以维持黄金市场的强势。 除了利率下降和关税引发的动荡之外，主要发达市场货币信心的减弱也是投资需求激增的关键催化剂。对央行独立性 的攻击和主权债务上升削弱了投资者对主要货币的信心，推动资金流向黄金避险。 这一需求结构转变发生在金价屡创新高的背景下。2025年金价创下1979年以来最佳年度表现，全年上涨64%，并在53 个交易日刷新历史纪录。本周三金价首次突破每盎司5300美元，今年以来已上涨22%。全球 ...

Core Insights - The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund achieved a 15.1% annual return in 2025, driven by strong performances in technology and financial sectors, continuing its reliance on large tech stocks [1] - The fund, managed by the Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management (NBIM), reported a stock investment return of 19.3%, with other asset classes also showing growth [1] - Despite solid overall performance, the fund lagged its benchmark index by 28 basis points [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Large tech stocks have consistently dominated the fund's performance in recent quarters, with NBIM holding approximately 1.5% of listed shares in around 7,200 companies globally [2] - The fund's largest holdings include major U.S. tech giants such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon [2] - Other asset classes also recorded positive returns, with fixed income investments yielding 5.4% and private real estate investments returning 4.4% [2] - The most notable performance came from private renewable energy infrastructure investments, which achieved a return rate of 18.1% [2] Group 2: Geographical Concentration Concerns - Over half of the fund's assets are concentrated in the U.S., primarily in stocks and bonds, raising concerns among experts due to recent geopolitical tensions [3] - An expert panel appointed by the government has recommended that the fund prepare for increasing geopolitical instability, particularly in light of recent comments from former President Trump regarding Greenland [3] - The expert panel advised against limiting the fund's investment scope, suggesting that NBIM should maintain its global and diversified investment strategy while addressing geopolitical risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The statement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has weakened the last psychological defense of the yen, leading to a reduction in intervention expectations and making shorting the yen a more attractive trade [1][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Yellen's statement on January 28, the USD/JPY pair rebounded sharply from around 152.7 to 153.8, erasing losses caused by rumors of a "New York Fed price check" [1]. - The market's focus has shifted from intervention speculation to the fundamental strength of Japan's economy [5][10]. Group 2: Intervention Expectations - Yellen's denial of intervention has diminished the perceived "policy risk premium" associated with USD/JPY, making shorting the yen more appealing [3]. - There is insufficient evidence to suggest that Japan has intervened in the currency market, as data from the Bank of Japan shows no significant yen-buying activity during recent declines [4]. Group 3: Fundamental Factors - The market is now assessing three key areas regarding Japan's fundamentals: fiscal policy, inflation expectations, and monetary policy [5]. - The upcoming elections and the lack of clarity on funding for tax cuts could create downward pressure on the yen if fiscal expansion continues without a clear financing plan [5]. - Rising domestic inflation expectations have been found to correlate with a weaker yen, indicating that even without widening interest rate differentials, the yen remains under pressure [6]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Implications - Short-term, Yellen's comments may reduce expectations for immediate rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, but if USD/JPY approaches the 150 level again, the Bank may find it challenging to maintain its current stance [8]. - The weakening of the yen is becoming a significant variable in the Bank of Japan's response function, potentially leading to increased rate hike expectations if the yen depreciates too quickly [8][9].

特朗普总统与参议院民主党领袖Chuck Schumer接近达成协议，可能避免本周六（1月31日）凌晨多个联 邦机构因资金到期而关门。双方正在就联邦移民执法人员的新限制措施展开谈判。 1月28日，据媒体报道，两名知情官员透露，新方案将把国土安全部（DHS）的拨款法案从六项支出法 案一揽子计划中拆分出来，使军事、医疗项目及其他联邦机构能在当地时间周五（1月30日）午夜截止 日期前获得本财年剩余时间的资金。 国会还将考虑为国土安全部运营提供短期延期，以防止运输安全管理局、海岸警卫队和联邦应急管理局 的服务中断。这一临时法案将为国会议员与白宫争取时间，谈判核心将聚焦于民主党人强烈要求的对联 邦移民执法人员实施新的战术限制，以及加强对过度使用武力指控的问责机制。 尽管官员们强调协议尚未最终敲定，且仍面临多重障碍，但这一进展标志着华盛顿在打破预算僵局方面 迈出了关键一步。参议院拨款委员会主席、缅因州共和党参议员Susan Collins表示，双方正朝着解决危 机的方向推进。她说："白宫和参议院似乎正在取得良好进展以避免政府关门。" 协议框架：拆分预算法案争取谈判时间 民主党施压：明尼阿波利斯枪击案成转折点 据报道，根据知 ...

全球最大主动固定收益管理机构之一PIMCO（品浩）近日发出警告，不仅外国投资者长期享受的"美债 收益+美元对冲"的"免费午餐"时代已经结束，全球央行与机构投资者也正重新评估对美元资产的过度集 中。PIMCO建议投资者在新的周期坐标系下，将现金头寸转向高质量债券，并关注价值股与大宗商品 的配置机会。 据彭博报道，PIMCO在领英发文中指出，数十年来，外国投资者一方面享受美国国债的诱人收益率， 另一方面利用美元作为天然的股票对冲工具，但随着美元持续贬值，这一策略已不再奏效。对冲美国固 定收益资产现在往往会锁定负收益率，这使得美国以外的本土债券市场对海外投资者而言更具吸引力。 PIMCO强调，这一转变具有"深远的影响"。各国央行和机构投资者正在重新评估其投资组合中的美元 集中度，寻找在不损害审慎风险管理前提下的替代方案。目前的美国经常账户数据显示，尽管股票资金 流入依然强劲，但在固定收益领域的配置已变得日益挑剔。 告别"免费午餐"与美元集中度重估 在展望2026年市场时，PIMCO进一步指出，随着利率下滑，持有过多现金的投资者将面临再投资风 险。该机构建议利用全球债券市场与股票的传统负相关性，将现金转向高质量债券以 ...

Core Insights - SK Hynix indicates that the supply tightness in the memory market will persist, with the company fully ramping up production of high-end products but still unable to meet customer demand completely. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue into the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: DRAM Supply Situation - SK Hynix reported a significant year-on-year decrease in DRAM inventory for the fourth quarter, with products being shipped immediately to customers, leaving little room for inventory accumulation [2]. - The company anticipates further reduction in DRAM inventory in the second half of the year, suggesting that customer supply constraints may last for an extended period [2]. Group 2: HBM4 Strategy - The focus of SK Hynix's strategy is to achieve a dominant market share in the HBM4 segment, building on its leadership in HBM3 and HBM3E products [3]. - The company emphasizes that its competitive edge in the HBM market is not only due to technological leadership but also through close collaboration with customers and infrastructure partners since the HBM2E era [3]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Market Position - Despite maximizing production efforts, SK Hynix acknowledges that supply remains tight and is unable to fully satisfy customer demand, with some competitors expected to enter the market [4]. - The company aims to enhance yield rates to match the previous 12-layer HBM3E levels to secure a leading position in the HBM4 market [4]. Group 4: U.S. Expansion Plans - SK Hynix expresses a cautious stance regarding large-scale manufacturing expansion in the U.S., monitoring discussions between the South Korean and U.S. governments concerning anticipated semiconductor tariffs [4]. - The company has announced a selective investment plan, committing $10 billion to establish an AI solutions company in the U.S., leveraging advanced chip technologies, including HBM, to provide optimized AI systems for data center clients [5].

Core Insights - SAP's cloud transformation strategy has entered a performance realization phase, with significant profit growth in Q4 driven by customers migrating from traditional on-premise systems to the cloud [1] - The company has raised its cloud revenue growth forecast for the year, expecting cloud revenue to reach €21.7 billion in 2025, exceeding analyst expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4, SAP reported an adjusted operating profit increase of 27% year-on-year to €2.83 billion [1] - The company's cloud revenue for the full year 2025 is projected to be €21.7 billion at constant currency, surpassing analyst forecasts [1][2] - SAP's cloud backlog, reflecting sales to be recognized over the next 12 months, grew by 16% to €21.1 billion in Q4, with a 25% increase at constant currency [6] Group 2: AI Business Growth - SAP Business AI has become a key growth driver, with two-thirds of cloud orders in Q4 including AI business, and strong adoption rates within the ERP suite [1][6] - The rise in demand for AI technology has led SAP to focus on AI applications that require less human intervention, successfully converting AI into a growth engine [6] Group 3: Cloud Migration Strategy - SAP has set a timeline to accelerate customer migration to the cloud, planning to cease support for most of its major on-premise product lines by the end of 2027 [7] - The company announced a stock buyback plan of up to €10 billion by the end of 2027, signaling confidence in the long-term value of its cloud transformation strategy [7] Group 4: Business Model Transition - SAP is at a critical juncture in its business model transition, with traditional on-premise software support revenues declining while cloud subscription and AI revenues are rapidly increasing [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the commodity market driven by a new Monroe Doctrine centered around the "Trump Doctrine," which emphasizes the U.S. prioritizing the Western Hemisphere for geopolitical and resource security [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Strategy - The U.S. is expected to shift its foreign and security policy direction by early 2026, formally incorporating the "Trump Doctrine" into its National Security Strategy [1]. - This new approach aims to establish a controllable pricing base for resources, shipping routes, and supply chains, integrating them into national security and military deterrence frameworks [1][4]. - The U.S. is likely to adopt a more aggressive stance in securing resources, as evidenced by recent actions regarding Venezuela's oil assets and Greenland's mineral rights [4]. Group 2: Commodity Pricing Changes - Commodity pricing, particularly for copper, lithium, rare earths, energy, and precious metals, is undergoing a fundamental shift, now reflecting "availability, controllability, and political reliability" rather than just marginal supply and demand [2]. - A new commodity cycle characterized by a "security premium" is emerging, indicating that resources are increasingly viewed as geopolitical assets rather than mere commodities [3][25]. Group 3: Regional Political Dynamics - The U.S. strategic focus on the Western Hemisphere coincides with a significant political shift in Latin America, where there is a noticeable rightward movement in the political spectrum [5]. - The political transitions in countries like Argentina and Chile are expected to reduce resistance to U.S. initiatives aimed at enhancing security, trade, and supply chain cooperation [5][6]. Group 4: Resource and Economic Dimensions - The U.S. is highly dependent on imports for critical minerals, with over half of its consumption of 46 minerals reliant on foreign sources, including complete dependence on imports for 15 of them [10]. - The U.S. is attempting to reverse the structural changes in trade and investment in Latin America, where China has become a dominant trade partner in key sectors [6][9]. Group 5: Strategic Resource Management - The U.S. is reclassifying key minerals and energy assets as strategic facilities, integrating them into national security considerations [7]. - Recent trade agreements with countries like Argentina and Ecuador reflect a shift towards a political and security-driven market allocation of Latin American resources [8][9]. Group 6: Pricing Logic and Market Dynamics - The pricing logic for strategic resources is expected to undergo structural changes as they are formally integrated into national security frameworks [16]. - Key minerals are entering a phase dominated by "geopolitical pricing," characterized by heightened sensitivity to geopolitical news and limited price correction space [17][21]. - Precious metals are becoming not only safe-haven assets but also tools for pricing policy uncertainty, with expectations of a bullish trend in the first half of 2026 [18][25].

在AI强劲需求的驱动下，"美版ASML"、全球半导体设备巨头Lam Research交出了一份极其亮眼的成绩单。公司CEO Tim Archer表示2025年是"创 纪录的一年"。 1月28日，Lam Research公布2026财年第二财季(截至2025年12月28日)业绩报告显示，12月季度营收达到53.4亿美元，不仅实现了连续十个季度的 增长，其毛利率和运营利润率更是双双突破指引上限。12月季度毛利率为49.7%，超过了指引区间的高端，营业利润率达到34.3%，同样超过指引 区间的高端。 2025年全年营收高达206亿美元，同比增长27%，每股收益（EPS）同比激增49%，显示出公司在行业上升周期的强大盈利爆发力。全年毛利率为 49.9%，这是自2012年Novelis合并以来，作为合并公司全年的最高成绩。营业利润率也创下34.1%的纪录，营业利润达到70亿美元，同比增长 41%。 | | | 新产品线持续获得市场认可，其中Aqara导体蚀刻系统在过去一年装机量翻了一番，在先进DRAM和代工逻辑的EUV和高纵横比蚀刻应用中赢得了 量产工具记录。 在股东回报方面，Lam Research延续了其一贯的慷慨 ...