"现在的选择很简单，要么今天出钱，要么明天流血。我指的不仅是乌克兰，而是整个欧 洲。" 资产处置方案流产与比利时的阻力 据央视新闻报道，当地时间19日，欧洲理事会主席科斯塔表示，欧盟领导人已批准2026至2027年度向乌 克兰提供900亿欧元援助的决议。 据媒体19日报道，这一为期两年的援助协议是在布鲁塞尔举行的一场马拉松式峰会后达成的。由于美国 已大幅削减财政支持，且华盛顿方面正施压乌克兰在和平谈判中做出让步，欧洲官员普遍担忧，若无新 的资金注入，基辅的资金将在明年4月耗尽，届时不仅乌克兰面临崩溃风险，整个欧洲大陆的安全也将 受到威胁。 另据媒体19日表示，此前法国和意大利等国牵头呼吁利用欧盟预算作为替代方案，最终促成了这一协 议。根据新方案，欧盟将利用其预算支持发行联合债务以从资本市场筹集资金。虽然各方在会议结论中 承诺继续研究如何利用被冻结的俄罗斯资产，但此次依靠纳税人资金而非俄罗斯资金的决定，被视为对 德国总理默茨和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的一次政治打击，此前二人曾大力推动利用俄资产支付赔偿的 方案。 尽管结果可能面临批评，但这反映了欧盟领导人在此刻为乌克兰获取新资金的极度紧迫感。科斯塔在社 交媒体上表 ...

Core Insights - The focus of the AI competition is shifting from model strength to the ability to convert model capabilities into revenue and cash flow, marking a critical transition for companies like OpenAI [1] - OpenAI is at a pivotal point, transitioning from a "phenomenal product company" to an "enterprise-level AI platform" [1] Business Strategy - OpenAI has over 1 million enterprise users, with API revenue growth surpassing that of consumer products, indicating a strategic shift towards enterprise solutions [5] - The company aims to create a complete, unified, and scalable AI platform for enterprises, rather than just individual AI functionalities [5] - OpenAI's future IT architecture will include both "traditional cloud" and "AI cloud," focusing on building a smart infrastructure capable of handling trillions of tokens [5] Product Development - OpenAI plans to release a significantly upgraded model in Q1 of next year, although the naming of models is no longer a priority [6] - The company is developing a range of small AI devices, moving towards intelligent systems that can proactively understand user needs and contexts [6] - Altman emphasizes that the current memory capabilities of AI are still in their infancy, with future AI expected to remember user preferences and decisions, enhancing personalization [4][23] Market Dynamics - OpenAI acknowledges competitive pressures from models like Gemini and DeepSeek but believes that productization and distribution capabilities will be key differentiators [9] - The user base for ChatGPT has grown to nearly 900 million weekly active users, reinforcing OpenAI's competitive position in the enterprise market [9][15] Infrastructure Investment - OpenAI's investment in computing power is seen as essential for unlocking potential demand and revenue, with a threefold increase in computing capacity over the past year [7][44] - The company anticipates a significant future demand for AI capabilities, particularly in scientific discovery and healthcare, which will require substantial computational resources [40][42] Financial Outlook - OpenAI expects to incur losses of approximately $120 billion by 2028-2029 before becoming profitable, with a focus on aligning revenue growth with increasing computational costs [44][47] - The company believes that as revenue grows and the proportion of inference in computing resources increases, it will eventually cover training costs [44]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 日本央行加息25基点至三十年来最高水平0.75%，符合市场预期。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

12月18日，海南全岛正式封关运作。 这标志着海南自贸港建设迈入全新阶段，全岛在海关监管制度上正式成为"境内关外"区域，实行"一线 放开、二线管住、岛内自由"。 封关后，海南与境外间的"一线"进口商品零关税目录得到大幅扩容：享惠商品税目将从约1900个大幅扩 大至约6600个，约占全部商品的74%，比封关前提高53%。 享惠主体进一步扩大，基本覆盖全岛有实际进口需求的各类企事业单位及民办非企业单位。 当下的海南岛与消费者期望中的"免税天堂"还有一段距离。 此次封关后的"零关税"主要免除进口环节关税、增值税和消费税，中心目标是促进产业发展，与面向旅 客的 "离岛免税"政策是两套独立体系。 新增商品范围也更多集中在原材料与半成品领域，而非服饰、香化、箱包等常见消费品。 因此无论是免税渠道还是有税渠道的购物体验，均不会受到大的冲击。 不过，作为海南建设"国际旅游消费中心"的核心引擎，离岛免税板块仍因此"牵一发而动全身"。 海南岛逐步开放的进程，更将免税龙头中国中免推向一个挑战与机遇深度交织的重要关口。 海南机遇 在众多运营商中，中国中免是布局最早、投入最重的市场主导者。 海南现有12家离岛免税店，中免独占半数席位， ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 创业板指盘初涨1%。CPO、可控核聚变、消费电子等板块走高。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

OpenAI正面临一个深刻的战略困惑：尽管公司在推动人工智能模型向更深层次的科学和数学能力迈进，但这些尖端进展似乎并未有效转化为其核 心产品ChatGPT的大众吸引力，造成了研发与市场需求的脱节。 据The Information报道，这一困境已引发公司高层警觉。CEO Sam Altman本月早些时候向内部发布"红色警报"（code red），要求重新集中资源， 以提升ChatGPT对更广泛用户的吸引力。此举的背景是，公司内部员工注意到，尽管ChatGPT的用户基数在增长，但大多数用户并未利用其在复 杂推理方面取得的突破。 这一战略调整凸显了OpenAI面临的双重压力。一方面，其用户增长正面临挑战，可能难以实现年初设定的10亿周活跃用户（WAU）目标。据报 道，截至本月早些时候，其WAU不足9亿。另一方面，来自谷歌等巨头的竞争压力与日俱增，谷歌不仅在AI模型能力上迎头赶上，还拥有更强大 的分发渠道和成本优势。 然而，从财务角度看，OpenAI依然表现强劲。其年化收入已从今年1月的60亿美元飙升至超过190亿美元，主要得益于个人和企业用户的付费订 阅。公司正朝着年底达到200亿美元年化收入的目标迈进，并计划以 ...

日本核心通胀率在11月维持稳定，连续第44个月高于日本央行设定的目标，这一数据进一步巩固了市场对于日本央行即将加息的预期。 12月19日周五，日本政府公布的数据显示，11月剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.0%，涨幅符合市场预期中值，且与10月 持平。与此同时，整体CPI同比涨幅则从上月的3.0%微降至2.9%。两项数据均持续位于日本央行2%的目标之上。 此次数据发布恰逢日本央行即将结束为期两天的政策会议。市场普遍预计，央行将把政策利率从当前的0.5%上调至0.75%，这将是该国自1995年 以来的最高利率水平。 市场对该数据反应总体积极。数据发布后，受加息预期强化提振，日元兑美元汇率小幅走强至155.73一线，日经225指数上涨0.8%。与此同时，10 年期日本国债收益率微跌至1.958%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 7 | | | | | | | | F9 叠加 九转 画线 工具 岱 >> | | | | | | | 日经225 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The November core inflation unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising skepticism among economists due to data collection issues caused by a prolonged government shutdown [1][3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since March 2021, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below economists' expectations [1][3] Data Collection Issues - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faced significant data collection challenges due to a 43-day government shutdown, which hindered the collection of October price data, leading to potential distortions in both year-on-year and month-on-month data [3][4] - Economists criticized the BLS for assuming zero growth in rental prices for October, which artificially lowered the November inflation figures [3][6] Market Reactions - Despite doubts about the reliability of the data, U.S. stock markets rebounded following the CPI release, with the three major indices opening higher [3][8] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January increased slightly to about 22%, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2026 [3][8] Housing Costs Concerns - Housing costs emerged as a major point of contention, with a year-on-year increase of only 3%, the smallest in over four years, raising questions about the accuracy of the inflation data [9][10] - The report indicated that core goods prices rose by 1.4% year-on-year, while energy prices increased by 4.2%, highlighting the mixed signals in the inflation data [9][10] Economic Outlook - Economists expressed concerns that the data collection delays and the timing of data collection during discount periods could further distort the inflation figures [4][6] - The overall sentiment among market participants remains divided, with some viewing the data as a potential signal for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, while others caution against overreacting to potentially flawed data [8][10]

在这一轮大规模融资计划背后，软银集团已同意向OpenAI投资300亿美元。为了资助这一赌注，软银在 上个月出售了价值58亿美元的英伟达股份。预计到今年年底，OpenAI将从软银处获得剩余的225亿美元 计划融资。 OpenAI正计划在一轮新的融资中募集高达1000亿美元资金，以支持其雄心勃勃的增长计划。 据《华尔街日报》19日援引知情人士透露，这轮融资目前处于早期阶段。如果OpenAI能顺利募集到全 额目标资金，其公司估值可能高达8300亿美元。该初创公司计划最快在明年第一季度末完成这轮融资， 不过交易条款仍可能发生变化。 目前尚不清楚是否有足够的投资者需求来通过这一目标。此次融资将是OpenAI在公开市场对人工智能 支出的狂热情绪消退后面临的最大考验之一。尽管对人工智能泡沫的担忧已经对许多相关科技股造成压 力，OpenAI仍需积极寻求大量资本以保持竞争力。 OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman此前已在全球范围内寻找投资者以建立资本池，据《华尔街日报》此前 报道，该公司正在权衡潜在的首次公开募股（IPO）。为了在快速变化的市场中构建其人工智能模型， OpenAI需要极其充裕的资金支持。 巨额注资与战略布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of investors is shifting from the interest rate decision to the guidance on the future tightening path from the Bank of Japan, particularly comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda after the meeting [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates the Bank of Japan will raise the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in thirty years [1]. - Nomura's analysis suggests that the rate hike decision alone may not catalyze further increases in yields, as the market has already priced in these expectations [1][2]. - There is skepticism regarding whether Ueda will indicate a significantly higher neutral rate than the current market pricing of 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Future Rate Guidance - Analysts believe that if the Bank of Japan fails to convey a faster tightening pace than the market expects, the meeting could be perceived as a "non-event" [1]. - The consensus indicates that the policy rate may reach 1.0% by mid-2026, and any signals of continued rate hikes in 2026 would not surprise the market [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Implications - A simple rate hike may not be sufficient to support a stronger yen; Ueda would need to suggest an accelerated pace of rate increases to prevent yen depreciation [3]. - The current average rate hike pace since the end of negative interest rates is approximately every seven months, with market expectations for the next increase to occur by the third quarter of 2026 [3]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Considerations - While the focus is on the central bank meeting, fiscal policy developments are also important, with key tax reform outlines and preliminary budget proposals expected around December 19 and 26 [4]. - The potential removal of income limits proposed by the Democratic Party for the People could lead to significant tax revenue losses, impacting yields and the yen [5]. - If the initial budget for fiscal year 2026 can be kept below 122.4 trillion yen, it may be viewed positively by the bond market; exceeding 125 trillion yen would have negative implications [5].