Core Insights - The employment market is currently very weak, with poor job growth reported by Federal Reserve Governor Waller [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have had a positive impact on the employment market [1] Group 1 - The current job growth situation is not satisfactory, indicating a sluggish employment market [1] - Federal Reserve's actions to lower interest rates are aimed at providing support to the struggling employment sector [1]

Core Points - The article discusses the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure on December 18, 2025, marking a significant milestone in China's efforts to expand its openness and enhance the development of the Hainan Free Trade Port [1]. Group 1: Full Island Closure - "Full island closure" refers to establishing Hainan Island as a special customs supervision area, implementing a policy characterized by "one line open, one line managed, and free movement within the island" [2]. - The "one line open" policy allows for a series of free and convenient measures for goods entering and exiting between Hainan and other countries and regions [4]. - The "two lines managed" policy involves precise management of goods entering the mainland from Hainan, with ten designated ports facilitating smooth passage for eligible goods [6]. Group 2: Trade and Tax Benefits - The full island closure is not equivalent to an island lockdown; instead, it aims to further open up to the outside world, attract global resources, and promote high-quality development of the Hainan Free Trade Port [9]. - The "zero tariff" policy will apply to 6,600 categories of goods, covering approximately 74% of all product categories, representing a 53 percentage point increase from before the closure [14]. - Enterprises can benefit from a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% if they meet specific criteria, including operating in encouraged industries listed in the Hainan Free Trade Port's directory [18][21]. Group 3: Consumer and Resident Benefits - Residents will not need additional permits to travel to Hainan after the full island closure [11]. - The upgraded duty-free shopping policy allows island residents to purchase duty-free items without limit after one departure from the island within a calendar year [13]. - The policy changes also include the expansion of duty-free product categories, which now encompass nearly all production equipment and raw materials, potentially saving import equipment companies about 20% in costs [17].

12月17日，被誉为"券商界奥斯卡"的第23届新财富最佳分析师评选结果正式出炉。 宏观经济领域，广发证券郭磊团队再获第一，华创证券张瑜、浙商证券李超、东吴证券芦哲、长江证券于博等研究小组分列其后。 策略研究领域，最佳分析师榜首为广发证券刘晨明研究小组，此后依次是申万宏源证券傅静涛、国联民生证券包承超、兴业证券张启尧、天风证券吴开达等 研究小组。 固收研究领域，华泰证券张继强位列第一，从2019年至今，团队已蝉联七届第一名；金融工程领域，兴业证券郑兆磊团队位列第一；银行领域，浙商证券梁 凤洁团队位列第一。 从机构直接投票选出的新财富最具影响力研究机构榜单来看，今年长江证券、广发证券、国泰海通证券、申万宏源证券、兴业证券摘得前五名。 从个人类奖项来看，浙商证券邱冠华获得巨匠分析师，长江证券邬博华、国联民生证券管泉森获得百星分析师，兴业证券孙媛媛、国盛证券何亚轩获得黄金 分析师。 | | | 東玲玲等 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | 浙商证券 | 研究小组（李超、林成炜、廖博、潘高 | 38987.917 | | | | 远、费瑾、陈冀、祁星等) | | | 4 | 东吴证券 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the ambitious plans of Xiaomi in the AI era, particularly through the introduction of the MiMo model led by the young scientist Luo Fuli, who emphasizes a shift from traditional hardware to intelligent services [2][10] - Xiaomi's strategy involves a significant investment of 200 billion yuan over the next five years to enhance its research and development capabilities, aiming to secure its position in the evolving tech landscape [2][10] Group 1: Xiaomi's AI Strategy - Luo Fuli's presence at the Xiaomi Partner Conference signifies a strategic shift towards AI, with a focus on developing the MiMo-V2-Flash model, which aims to integrate AI more closely with physical interactions rather than just language processing [2][5] - The MiMo-V2-Flash model utilizes a unique architecture that activates only a fraction of its total parameters during operation, allowing it to be lightweight enough for mobile and automotive applications, achieving three times the inference speed of competitors while being significantly more cost-effective [5][10] - Xiaomi's approach is to create a "virtual universe" that interacts with the physical world, moving beyond traditional chatbots to develop AI that understands and responds to real-world conditions [5][10] Group 2: Industry Context and Challenges - The AI industry is experiencing a shift from a focus on scaling models to a more research-oriented approach, as the marginal returns from simply increasing computational power are diminishing [8][9] - Competitors in the AI space are increasingly seeking hardware integration to enhance their models, indicating a trend where software giants are looking to establish a physical presence to interact with the real world [9][10] - Xiaomi's existing infrastructure, with its vast IoT ecosystem connecting 1.04 billion devices, positions it uniquely to leverage AI for smart services, but it must ensure that its models are competitive to retain user loyalty [10][11]

2025年全球煤炭消费触及历史峰值，但市场需求已进入平台期。国际能源署（IEA）表示，受清洁能源 扩张及能源结构转型的推动，全球煤炭需求虽然创下新高，但并未出现进一步爆发式增长，预计到2030 年将呈现下降趋势。 作为全球最大的煤炭消费国，中国的市场表现依然是全球趋势的决定性力量。Keisuke Sadamori指出， 中国的煤炭消费量比世界其他地区消费量的总和还要高出30%，是全球煤炭趋势的主要驱动力。2025 年，中国的煤炭需求基本持平。 IEA在周三发布的《2025年煤炭报告》中披露，2025年全球煤炭需求增长0.5%，达到创纪录的88.5亿公 吨。尽管需求总量处于高位，但IEA预测，随着可再生能源、核能及天然气供应的充足，这些替代能源 将在发电领域持续挤压煤炭的市场份额，从而削弱其主导地位。 IEA能源市场与安全主管Keisuke Sadamori在媒体简报中表示，展望未来，全球煤炭需求已趋于平稳， 并将开启一个"非常缓慢且渐进"的下降过程，直至本十年末。这一趋势表明，尽管摆脱化石燃料对于实 现全球气候目标至关重要，但作为目前最大的单一发电燃料来源，煤炭的退出路径将是渐进式的。 2025年的煤炭市场呈 ...

英国通胀降温速度快于预期，且从较低的峰值加速回落，这一显著迹象表明该国经济正在放缓，为英国央行在本周做出年内第四次降息的决定铺 平了道路。 英国国家统计局周三公布的数据显示，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）年率降至3.2%，不仅低于10月的3.6%，也低于经济学家所预期的3.5%。这是 自今年3月以来该数据的最低水平。受到通胀超预期回落的影响，英镑兑美元汇率在数据发布后小幅下跌0.69%，现报1.3327美元。 市场普遍认为，这份数据使得英国央行在本周四宣布降息几成定局。尽管央行上个月因价格压力持续而暂停了季度降息周期，但在当前劳动力市 场疲软和经济放缓的背景下，包括行长Andrew Bailey在内的决策者预计将采取行动。 经济学家指出，通胀消退的速度超出了所有人的预期。这不仅足以促使英国央行在圣诞节前为借款人送上降息的"礼物"，也为明年初进一步放宽 货币政策打开了大门。 通胀全线回落 最新的通胀数据表明，英国物价压力的缓解速度快于英国央行决策者的预期。英国国家统计局首席经济学家Grant Fitzner指出，通常在每年这个时 候上涨的食品价格出现回落，是推动此次通胀下降的主要因素。此外，备受关注的服务业通胀 ...

- . 0 .. e a t e . a > e . . . . . : " . . , . . . D . 2 · 1 . . 4 · · · l e .. . . · o : 作者 | 黄昱 编辑 | 周智宇 曾被视作"全球扫地机器人鼻祖"的美国公司 iRobot，如今光环散尽。 这一历史性时刻是全球智能硬件市场话语权转移的标志性事件，背后更是全球扫地机产业图谱的剧烈重塑。曾经海外市场一家独大的格局已然崩塌，一批中 国企业正以惊人的速度改写扫地机行业规则。 云鲸创始人兼CEO张峻彬对华尔街见闻表示："现在全球扫地机市场就是中国企业的'内战'了，是TOP5厂商之间技术创新迭代能力、全球渠道和供应链效率 等的全面竞争。" 而将iRobot 收入囊中的杉川能否实现从代工龙头到自主品牌的关键一跃，还充满不确定性。毕竟在巨象倒下的废墟之上，一批中国扫地机品牌正虎视眈眈， 准备迎接新一轮的海外竞争格局红利。 值得一提的是，杉川是iRobot的第一大债主以及主要代工厂。这场破产重组预计于2026年2月前尘埃落定，杉川将获得iRobot 100%股权。 iRobot的陨落，是近年来全球科技消费品领域最典型的"前浪死在沙滩 ...

Core Insights - The prediction market is experiencing exponential growth, transitioning from a niche activity to a multi-billion dollar financial sector, driven by betting on sports, politics, and economic indicators [1] - Monthly betting amounts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by November 2023, indicating a structural shift in pricing and trading public event outcomes through "event contracts" [1] Market Capitalization and Valuation - Kalshi raised $1 billion at a valuation of $11 billion, backed by prominent investors such as Paradigm, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and CapitalG [3] - Intercontinental Exchange announced a potential investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, bringing its valuation to approximately $8 billion, reflecting strong confidence from traditional financial institutions in prediction markets as a new type of financial derivative trading platform [3] Regulatory Landscape and Compliance - Despite many states in the U.S. prohibiting sports betting, prediction market platforms argue they offer financial contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than traditional gambling [4] - Polymarket received CFTC approval to operate in the U.S., allowing it to provide services through brokers and directly to customers, enhancing its legitimacy and public recognition, especially ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election [4] Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Although Polymarket previously dominated in trading volume, Kalshi has rapidly gained ground, with both platforms now holding roughly equal market shares, collectively reaching about $9 billion in total bets last month [5] - The competition has intensified, with both platforms forming partnerships with major sports leagues and engaging in aggressive marketing strategies, including collaborations with Google Finance and media outlets like CNN and CNBC [5] Diverse Betting Categories - In addition to political elections, economic data and pop culture have become popular betting subjects, with Kalshi users predicting an 80% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January [6] - The prediction market's reach has expanded into niche areas, with Kalshi users betting on the Rotten Tomatoes score of the latest "Avatar" movie and Polymarket users wagering on the winner of the reality show "Survivor" [6]

受此提振，券商股全线爆发。华泰证券一度大涨超9%，广发证券一度涨超5%，港股中信证券涨超4%。证券ETF一度大涨超3%，近60个交易日累 计获资金净流入超29亿元。多只宽基ETF同步放量，沪深300ETF半小时成交超9亿元。 中金公司当日公告显示，公司将以36.91元/股的A股换股价格吸收合并东兴证券和信达证券，后两者的A股股东持有的每1股股票可换取0.5188股中 金公司A股股票。这一交易涉及A+H股两地上市公司同时吸收合并两家A股上市公司，构成券商板块近期最重磅的并购事件。 分析人士认为，重组预案落地及复牌在即、管理层拓宽券商资本空间的政策导向，以及板块整体低估值、低配置的特点，共同推动了券商股的强 势表现。 证券代码:601995 证券简称:中金公司 中国国际金融股份有限公司 17日，券商板块领涨A股两市，上证指数一度涨近1.5%，创业板指一度涨逾3.5%。市场异动的核心催化剂是中金公司换股吸收合并东兴证券、信 达证券的重组预案正式披露，三家公司将于12月18日复牌。 暨公司股票复牌的公告 中国国际金融股份有限公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记 载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真 ...

中金公司公告，拟换股吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券。中金公司A股股票换股价格为36.91元/股，东兴 证券A股股东持有的每1股信达证券A股股票可以换取0.5188股中金公司A股股票，信达证券A股股东持 有的每1股信达证券A股股票可以换取0.5188股中金公司A股股票。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...