风险提示及免责条款 "新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos：截至11月，过去六个月私营部门就业人数平均每月增加44,000人（与 10月持平）。这是疫情后的经济重启周期中六个月招聘速度最慢的一次。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国11月失业率 4.6%，预期 4.5%。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 美国10月零售销售环比 0%，预期 0.1%，前值 0.2%。 ...

从铜价反弹到股市周期性板块领涨，从债券收益率攀升到美元汇率重获动能——全球金融市场正在经历一轮广泛而深刻的重新定 价，核心逻辑指向对美国经济增长前景的重新评估。 据追风交易台，高盛Andrea Ferrario团队最新报告显示，该行风险偏好指标上周四达到0.75，创下今年1月以来最高水平。这一轮 市场重估的驱动力来自更乐观的增长预期，高盛PC1"全球增长"因子在过去三周录得2000年以来最大幅度的反弹之一。 在这轮重估中，周期性资产表现尤为突出。材料和金融板块领涨全球股市，而美国增长定价开始赶上世界其他地区，此前美国市 场年内表现相对滞后。与此同时，大部分债券市场出现抛售，实际利率上升成为推动收益率走高的主要因素。 高盛策略师认为，美股目前的定价水平反映2026年美国实际GDP增长接近市场共识的2.0%，但仍低于高盛预测的2.5%。这意味 着如果经济数据持续超预期，资产重估进程可能延续。 增长预期重估创多年新高 据高盛数据，其风险偏好指标上周四达到0.75，为1月以来最高水平。这一轮风险资产的强势表现主要由增长预期改善驱动，PC 1"全球增长"因子在三周内的涨幅创下2000年以来最大规模之一。 值得注意的是， ...

周二，原油延续下跌趋势，布油跌破60美元/桶，美油跌至55美元附近。随着停火预期升温，市场对俄罗斯石油出口中断的担忧大幅 减弱，而此时全球原油库存已处于供应过剩状态。 报道称，特朗普表示，他与乌克兰总统泽连斯基，以及德国、意大利、芬兰、法国、英国、波兰、挪威、丹麦、荷兰及北约的领导人 进行了非常长时间且非常好的交谈。特朗普认为，现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成实现俄乌和平的"和平协议"。 俄乌停火预期升温，中断担忧大幅减弱 市场定位和波动率数据凸显了单边看空情绪。资金管理公司上周将布油净多头敞口削减至10月底以来最低水平，商品交易顾问(CTA) 群体明显偏向看跌，趋势跟踪者基本处于最大空头状态。WTI原油次月隐含波动率跌至4月以来最低水平，偏度显示明确的看跌期权 偏向。 俄乌停火谈判的最新进展让交易员得以顺势做空原油。尽管乌克兰仍在打击俄罗斯炼油设施和里海地区资产，黑海航运依然面临风 险，特朗普政府还扣押了一艘委内瑞拉超级油轮，但价格走势明确显示——每当传出和谈乐观消息时，原油都会承受下行压力。 供应端：库存高企，炼油利润收窄 在供应层面，美国能源信息署(EIA)和国际能源署(IEA)都警告称市场面临前所未有的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the shift in major internet companies from "wild growth" to "refined operations," emphasizing the increasing importance of data security and protection of commercial secrets as regulatory red lines. It discusses the recent dismissal of a key user operations leader at Alibaba's Xianyu platform for serious violations of data security regulations, marking a trend of strict internal anti-corruption measures within the company [2][3]. Group 1: Data Security Violations - A user operations leader at Xianyu was fired for exporting important platform data to iCloud and accepting paid consulting from external organizations, violating data security and confidentiality regulations [2][3]. - Data leaks are now treated with a "zero tolerance" policy across major internet companies, with significant consequences for employees who breach information security protocols [3]. Group 2: Anti-Corruption Measures - Alibaba has established a "Compliance and Integrity Department" since 2012 to investigate internal corruption, with over 120 reporting points set up by March 2025 [4]. - In the fiscal year 2025, Alibaba provided over 58,000 hours of integrity training to stakeholders, and has referred over 100 corruption cases to judicial authorities in the past three years [5]. - The company has introduced performance assessments for managers based on their effectiveness in anti-corruption efforts, linking their performance to bonuses and promotions [5]. Group 3: Business Development and Challenges - Xianyu has been elevated to a core business within Alibaba's new organizational structure, recognized as a strategic innovation business aimed at engaging younger users [8]. - The platform has begun charging fees for high-frequency sellers, transitioning from a nine-year free model to a service fee of 1% for high transaction sellers, and expanding to a 0.6% fee for all sellers starting September 2024 [9].

贝森特预计美国2025年全年GDP增速将达到3.5%，显示对经济增长的强劲预期。他对明年美国劳动者 的前景感到乐观。 在通胀方面，贝森特预计2026年前六个月通胀将大幅下降，房租也将大幅下降。他承认物价水平已经非 常高，但认为实际工资的提升将能解决这一问题，为美国家庭带来实质性的购买力改善。 美联储主席人选即将揭晓 贝森特透露，特朗普将于1月初公布美联储主席人选，猜测届时将正式宣布这一关键任命。本周可能还 有一到两次美联储的面试正在进行中。 周二（12月16日），美国财政部长贝森特表示，对美国经济前景表达乐观预期，预计2025年全年GDP增 速将达到3.5%，并对明年美国劳动者的前景感到乐观。 他预计2026年前六个月通胀将大幅下降，房租也将大幅下降，并认为尽管物价水平已经非常高，但实际 工资的提升将能解决这一问题。 同时，贝森特指出，特朗普将于1月初公布美联储主席人选，本周可能还有一到两次面试。这一关键任 命将影响未来数年美国货币政策走向，市场对此高度关注。 贝森特在表态中否认了外界对新任美联储主席独立性的质疑，称特朗普在面试中对政策相关问题一直非 常直率。他表示，候选人沃什和哈塞特都非常有资格，并驳斥了" ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神。明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。一是把 促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，这是今年会议的新提法。货币政策将加强 前瞻性、科学性调节，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，促进社会综合融资成本低位运 行，与其他政策举措形成合力，努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升等目标。二是灵活高效运用多种货币 政策工具。货币政策工具箱既包括降准降息，也包括其他短期、中期、长期流动性投放工具。明年将灵 活搭配、高效运用多种工具，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹 配。三是加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续用好用活结构性货币政策工具， 着力畅通货币政策传导机制，持续提升金融服务实体经济的质效。同时，要继续平衡好内外部关系，保 持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体 保持稳健，前三 ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor supply chain bottleneck is causing a critical shortage of storage chips for consumer devices, leading to increased production costs and suppressed shipment growth [1][2] - Global smartphone shipments are projected to decline by 2.1% in 2026, reversing the estimated growth trend of 3.3% for this year and significantly lower than the previously expected slight growth of 0.45% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is expected to rise by 6.9% in 2026 due to a 10% to 25% increase in total component costs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ongoing expansion of global data centers is driving demand for Nvidia systems, consuming the production capacity of major memory chip suppliers like SK Hynix and Samsung [2] - DRAM prices have surged this year due to demand exceeding supply, impacting the smartphone industry [2] - The bill of materials (BoM) cost for low-end smartphones priced below $200 has increased by 20% to 30% since the beginning of the year, while mid-range smartphones have seen a 10% to 15% rise [2] Group 2: Future Projections - Storage chip prices may rise by an additional 40% before the second quarter of 2026, potentially increasing BoM costs by 8% to 15% on top of current high levels [2] - Manufacturers are likely to pass these increased component costs onto consumers, driving up device average selling prices [2] Group 3: Manufacturer Strategies - Consumer electronics manufacturers are adjusting strategies in response to cost pressures, with companies like Xiaomi warning of potential price increases [3] - Lenovo and others are stockpiling storage chips to mitigate rising costs [3] - Some companies may encourage consumers to purchase higher-margin premium models or downgrade specifications, such as reusing old components or reducing camera and display quality [3] - Apple and Samsung are identified as having the strongest capacity to navigate upcoming challenges, while other manufacturers with limited flexibility between market share and profit margins may face significant difficulties [3]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's hardware team signals that investors should hold onto AI winner stocks rather than making large-scale rotations, emphasizing a structural shift where the "network infrastructure" sector is expected to outpace "compute" growth by 2026 [1][2] - The team estimates that AI-related companies currently have a valuation premium of only 26%, indicating that investor expectations for AI-driven profit growth are overly conservative, with actual growth projected to accelerate by 60%-80% [1][5] Investment Strategy - Following recent pullbacks, the team suggests that now is a good time to reassess AI investment portfolios, advocating for a "hold" strategy rather than a "full rotation" [2] Valuation and Growth Projections - AI business is expected to account for approximately 40% of revenue for AI-related companies by 2026, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of about 35 times, suggesting that the market anticipates sustainable capital expenditure growth of only 30%, significantly lower than the projected 70% growth for 2024-2025 [5] - Early company outlooks indicate that AI will lead to an average revenue growth increase of 400 basis points and an average profit growth increase of 600 basis points, translating to a growth acceleration of nearly 60%-80% for industries previously thought to have only mid-single-digit growth [7] Structural Shift in Growth - A key viewpoint is that the growth of the network infrastructure sector is set to surpass compute growth, redefining the AI investment landscape [8] - AI switch revenue is projected to grow by 48% in 2026, 29% in 2027, and 25% in 2028, compared to overall data center switch industry growth rates of 23%, 19%, and 18% respectively, indicating that AI is becoming the primary growth driver in the switch industry [8] Capital Expenditure Trends - With the expansion of GPU clusters, the revenue from AI data center switches is expected to rise from 4% of the total switch market in 2022 to 57% by 2027, driven by larger cluster demands and the urgent need for optimized GPU utilization [10] - The optical interconnect market is expected to grow by 40% to $20 billion by 2026, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of 20% before 2030, while the telecom and data center interconnect market is projected to grow by about 15% to $5 billion by 2026 [12] Recommended Stocks - Morgan Stanley places network-related companies at a high ranking in their recommendations, with Arista Networks and Amphenol as top picks, followed by Celestica, Coherent, and Lumentum [16] Supply Chain Considerations - Despite the optimistic outlook, the team highlights supply chain constraints as a key issue for 2026, with bottlenecks expected in HBM inventory, CoWoS packaging, and optical component capacity [17] - The team maintains a positive outlook on AI infrastructure investment, forecasting that capital expenditures for large-scale vendors will exceed $150 billion in 2026, marking a historical high [17]