市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神。明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。一是把 促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，这是今年会议的新提法。货币政策将加强 前瞻性、科学性调节，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，促进社会综合融资成本低位运 行，与其他政策举措形成合力，努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升等目标。二是灵活高效运用多种货币 政策工具。货币政策工具箱既包括降准降息，也包括其他短期、中期、长期流动性投放工具。明年将灵 活搭配、高效运用多种工具，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹 配。三是加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续用好用活结构性货币政策工具， 着力畅通货币政策传导机制，持续提升金融服务实体经济的质效。同时，要继续平衡好内外部关系，保 持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体 保持稳健，前三 ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor supply chain bottleneck is causing a critical shortage of storage chips for consumer devices, leading to increased production costs and suppressed shipment growth [1][2] - Global smartphone shipments are projected to decline by 2.1% in 2026, reversing the estimated growth trend of 3.3% for this year and significantly lower than the previously expected slight growth of 0.45% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is expected to rise by 6.9% in 2026 due to a 10% to 25% increase in total component costs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ongoing expansion of global data centers is driving demand for Nvidia systems, consuming the production capacity of major memory chip suppliers like SK Hynix and Samsung [2] - DRAM prices have surged this year due to demand exceeding supply, impacting the smartphone industry [2] - The bill of materials (BoM) cost for low-end smartphones priced below $200 has increased by 20% to 30% since the beginning of the year, while mid-range smartphones have seen a 10% to 15% rise [2] Group 2: Future Projections - Storage chip prices may rise by an additional 40% before the second quarter of 2026, potentially increasing BoM costs by 8% to 15% on top of current high levels [2] - Manufacturers are likely to pass these increased component costs onto consumers, driving up device average selling prices [2] Group 3: Manufacturer Strategies - Consumer electronics manufacturers are adjusting strategies in response to cost pressures, with companies like Xiaomi warning of potential price increases [3] - Lenovo and others are stockpiling storage chips to mitigate rising costs [3] - Some companies may encourage consumers to purchase higher-margin premium models or downgrade specifications, such as reusing old components or reducing camera and display quality [3] - Apple and Samsung are identified as having the strongest capacity to navigate upcoming challenges, while other manufacturers with limited flexibility between market share and profit margins may face significant difficulties [3]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's hardware team signals that investors should hold onto AI winner stocks rather than making large-scale rotations, emphasizing a structural shift where the "network infrastructure" sector is expected to outpace "compute" growth by 2026 [1][2] - The team estimates that AI-related companies currently have a valuation premium of only 26%, indicating that investor expectations for AI-driven profit growth are overly conservative, with actual growth projected to accelerate by 60%-80% [1][5] Investment Strategy - Following recent pullbacks, the team suggests that now is a good time to reassess AI investment portfolios, advocating for a "hold" strategy rather than a "full rotation" [2] Valuation and Growth Projections - AI business is expected to account for approximately 40% of revenue for AI-related companies by 2026, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of about 35 times, suggesting that the market anticipates sustainable capital expenditure growth of only 30%, significantly lower than the projected 70% growth for 2024-2025 [5] - Early company outlooks indicate that AI will lead to an average revenue growth increase of 400 basis points and an average profit growth increase of 600 basis points, translating to a growth acceleration of nearly 60%-80% for industries previously thought to have only mid-single-digit growth [7] Structural Shift in Growth - A key viewpoint is that the growth of the network infrastructure sector is set to surpass compute growth, redefining the AI investment landscape [8] - AI switch revenue is projected to grow by 48% in 2026, 29% in 2027, and 25% in 2028, compared to overall data center switch industry growth rates of 23%, 19%, and 18% respectively, indicating that AI is becoming the primary growth driver in the switch industry [8] Capital Expenditure Trends - With the expansion of GPU clusters, the revenue from AI data center switches is expected to rise from 4% of the total switch market in 2022 to 57% by 2027, driven by larger cluster demands and the urgent need for optimized GPU utilization [10] - The optical interconnect market is expected to grow by 40% to $20 billion by 2026, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of 20% before 2030, while the telecom and data center interconnect market is projected to grow by about 15% to $5 billion by 2026 [12] Recommended Stocks - Morgan Stanley places network-related companies at a high ranking in their recommendations, with Arista Networks and Amphenol as top picks, followed by Celestica, Coherent, and Lumentum [16] Supply Chain Considerations - Despite the optimistic outlook, the team highlights supply chain constraints as a key issue for 2026, with bottlenecks expected in HBM inventory, CoWoS packaging, and optical component capacity [17] - The team maintains a positive outlook on AI infrastructure investment, forecasting that capital expenditures for large-scale vendors will exceed $150 billion in 2026, marking a historical high [17]

特斯拉正式在奥斯汀启动完全无人驾驶Robotaxi测试，车内无安全监督员和乘客，标志着其自动驾驶商业化进入关键验证阶 段。摩根士丹利认为，这一突破性进展将成为验证特斯拉Robotaxi战略的最重要催化剂。 特斯拉CEO马斯克上周末确认了社交媒体上流传的视频，显示特斯拉Robotaxi在奥斯汀街道上无人驾驶运行。这与公司三季 度财报电话会议上提出的年底前移除安全监督员的目标保持一致。 对此，大摩分析师Andrew S Percoco在最新研报中表示，特斯拉成功移除安全监督员并改善安全指标的能力，可能是验证其 Robotaxi战略的最重要近期催化剂。 该行预计特斯拉将在2026年显著增加Robotaxi车队规模至1000辆，并到2035年达到100万辆的规模。凭借每英里0.59美元的 成本优势，特斯拉不仅在无人驾驶出行市场占据先机，更将为其完全自动驾驶（FSD）的全面推广积累关键数据和监管依 据。 三大关键催化剂将决定扩张节奏 车队规模将迎来爆发式增长 大摩分析师认为，特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山采取了谨慎的扩张策略，优先考虑乘客安全。随着公司在移除安全监督员方面 取得进展，预计车队规模将显著扩大。 根据摩根士丹利的预 ...

又一家由省联社改制而来的升级联合银行，正式落地。 茅台集团、黔晟国资经营均出资10亿元，以9.56%的持股比例并列第三大股东。 工商信息显示，贵农联合银行目前入股的当地农信机构数量仍旧有限： 截至目前，贵州农信系统共有84家农商银行（农信联社），营业网点2293个、员工2.8万； 12月15日，贵州金融监管局批复贵州农商联合银行（下称"贵农联合银行"）开业申请； 获批后，贵农联合银行将继承贵州省联社的所有债权、债务，以104.58亿元的注册资金成为贵州农信机构的"新主角"。 根据批复，该行将主要承担三大核心业务：办理或代理贵州农商银行系统的资金清算和结算；参加资金市场，为贵州农商银行系统融通资金；组织贵州农商 银行系统的资金调剂。 参考股权关系，贵农商联合银行采取的是"上参下"模式： 其主要出资方为贵州省财政厅、贵州金控与当地茅台集团等省管国企： 其中贵州金控出资68.86亿元、持股65.84%； 贵州省财政厅出资15.72亿元、持股15.03%； 茅台集团的总会计师、董事会秘书刘刚已出任华贵人寿董事长，曾强调"坚持围绕茅台做足文章"，并表示"茅台集团将在资金、品牌、业务上支持华贵不断 提升盈利能力"。 未来 ...

据央视新闻消息，当地时间12月16日，日本国会参议院表决通过2025财年补充预算案，一般会计总额达到18.3万亿日元，相比2024财年补充预算 案增加31%。 补充预算案支出部分中，追加了1.1万亿日元防卫相关费用；连同9.9万亿日元的初始预算，2025财年防卫开支合计达到约11万亿日元，在GDP中 占比达到2%。 因财政来源存在巨大不足，日本政府将追加发行11.69万亿日元国债。 日本政府因财政来源存在巨大缺口，不得不通过大规模发债来填补预算。补充预算的通过进一步加重了日本已经高企的公共债务负担，可能对日 本国债市场和日元汇率产生压力。 美元/日元下跌0.26%，维持在154日元附近。 此举正值日本央行或将结束超宽松货币政策之际，最新调查显示，九成经济学家预测日本央行将在12月18日至19日的会议上加息25个基点，市场 定价也显示，12月加息25基点的概率约为90%。财政与货币政策方向的分化或将加剧市场对日本财政可持续性的关注。 截至发稿，日本10年期国债收益率报1.95%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant dispute has arisen in the global high-frequency trading sector regarding speed advantages, with allegations against the German Eurex exchange for allowing certain trading firms to exploit a strategy known as "Corrupted Speculative Triggering" (CST), reportedly generating profits of up to €600 million (approximately $700 million) over three years [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations and Complaints - Mosaic Finance, a French high-frequency trading firm, has filed a complaint with the European Commission, accusing Eurex of facilitating unfair practices that benefit a small group of companies, including Optiver, by sending large amounts of invalid data to maintain active connections and gain a speed advantage of approximately 3.2 nanoseconds [1][2]. - The CST strategy allegedly allows traders to send "corrupted" data packets to Eurex, enabling them to react faster to market information and execute trades ahead of competitors [3]. Group 2: Eurex's Response and Industry Implications - Eurex, part of the Deutsche Börse Group, has firmly denied the allegations, asserting that it has thoroughly reviewed concerns and has tools in place to detect abnormal data [2]. - Despite the denial, Eurex announced a system monitoring upgrade set to take effect in April, which is perceived as a response to the ongoing controversy surrounding the CST strategy [2][5]. Group 3: Impact on Market Participants - The controversy has had severe consequences for firms unable to utilize the CST strategy, with Mosaic Finance experiencing a 90% drop in profits in 2022, which they attribute to competitors gaining a speed advantage through the alleged tactics [4]. - Other firms, such as Emergent Trading, have acknowledged using similar techniques to gain speed advantages, indicating a broader acceptance of such practices within the industry [4]. Group 4: Future of High-Frequency Trading - The ongoing race for speed in high-frequency trading has evolved from milliseconds to nanoseconds, with firms continuously seeking optimization techniques to maintain competitive advantages [2][5]. - The anticipated system reforms by Eurex are expected to significantly diminish the effectiveness of the CST strategy, but industry insiders believe that traders will quickly adapt and find new methods to gain speed advantages in the future [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant concerns regarding the AI bubble, as evidenced by CoreWeave's market value plummeting by $33 billion, over 60%, within six weeks, alongside declines in Broadcom and Oracle's stock prices by more than 17% in three trading days [1][14]. Group 1: CoreWeave's Operational Challenges - CoreWeave's construction of a major AI data center cluster in Denton, Texas, has been delayed by approximately 60 days due to severe summer weather, impacting its ability to deliver 260 megawatts of computing power to OpenAI [3][6]. - The CEO's contradictory statements during the November earnings call heightened investor panic, as he initially downplayed the issue, only to be corrected by the CFO, indicating a broader problem affecting the entire data center supply chain [4][9]. - The construction delays have exposed systemic risks within the AI infrastructure industry, highlighting a widening gap between rapid construction and actual delivery capabilities, with significant valuations already priced in [5][11]. Group 2: Financial and Debt Concerns - CoreWeave's financial situation is precarious, with a recent quarterly revenue doubling to nearly $1.4 billion, yet the company reported a loss of $110 million, and its operating profit margin of about 4% is insufficient to cover debt interest payments [10]. - The company recently completed a $2.25 billion convertible bond issuance, which, while having a lower interest rate than typical asset-backed financing, poses risks of shareholder dilution and further stock price pressure [10]. - The cost of debt default insurance for CoreWeave has surged to 7.9 percentage points, reflecting growing concerns about its financial stability [10]. Group 3: Industry-Wide Implications - The turmoil at CoreWeave has raised broader questions about the AI industry's rapid growth and the timing and manner of significant capital investments yielding healthy profits [11][12]. - Delays in construction and supply chain bottlenecks are threatening to postpone spending plans worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which have already been factored into valuations across the industry [17]. - Oracle and Broadcom have also faced stock price declines due to concerns over delayed capital expenditures, indicating that the issues affecting CoreWeave are resonating throughout the entire tech sector [14][15].

供需关系的逆转将继续对价格端施加压力。受疲软的需求前景以及"史无前例的制造产能和库存"影响， 整个光伏产业链的价格在2026年之前都将维持在历史低位。 全球光伏行业正面临历史性转折点。据彭博新能源财经（BNEF）16日发布的全球光伏市场展望报告， 受主要市场政策调整及市场饱和影响，2026年全球光伏新增装机量预计将出现下滑，这将是该行业自 2000年有记录以来的首次年度萎缩。 报告数据显示，2026年全球光伏新增装机容量预计为649吉瓦（GW），较2025年略有下降。BNEF指 出，2025年的增长已是过去七年来最弱，而随后的收缩则标志着该行业在经历多年快速扩张后，正式进 入低增长阶段。 分析认为，尽管部分新兴市场有望保持强劲增长，但仍无法抵消市场缺口。在需求前景走弱及"史无前 例的制造产能和库存"压力下，产业链价格预计将在2026年之前维持在历史低位，行业复苏空间受限。 产业链价格承压与库存高企 BNEF在报告中预计，美国市场的增速将放缓。这一预期主要是基于美国总统特朗普致力于限制可再生 能源部署并重返化石燃料的政策导向。此外，西班牙和巴西等成熟市场也显现出增长乏力的迹象，快速 的产能建设导致弃光率上升及电 ...

欧元区12月服务业PMI初值 52.6，预期 53.3，前值 53.6。欧元区12月综合PMI初值 51.9，预期 52.6，前 值 52.8。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...