据央视新闻消息，当地时间12月16日，日本国会参议院表决通过2025财年补充预算案，一般会计总额达到18.3万亿日元，相比2024财年补充预算 案增加31%。 补充预算案支出部分中，追加了1.1万亿日元防卫相关费用；连同9.9万亿日元的初始预算，2025财年防卫开支合计达到约11万亿日元，在GDP中 占比达到2%。 因财政来源存在巨大不足，日本政府将追加发行11.69万亿日元国债。 日本政府因财政来源存在巨大缺口，不得不通过大规模发债来填补预算。补充预算的通过进一步加重了日本已经高企的公共债务负担，可能对日 本国债市场和日元汇率产生压力。 美元/日元下跌0.26%，维持在154日元附近。 此举正值日本央行或将结束超宽松货币政策之际，最新调查显示，九成经济学家预测日本央行将在12月18日至19日的会议上加息25个基点，市场 定价也显示，12月加息25基点的概率约为90%。财政与货币政策方向的分化或将加剧市场对日本财政可持续性的关注。 截至发稿，日本10年期国债收益率报1.95%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant dispute has arisen in the global high-frequency trading sector regarding speed advantages, with allegations against the German Eurex exchange for allowing certain trading firms to exploit a strategy known as "Corrupted Speculative Triggering" (CST), reportedly generating profits of up to €600 million (approximately $700 million) over three years [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations and Complaints - Mosaic Finance, a French high-frequency trading firm, has filed a complaint with the European Commission, accusing Eurex of facilitating unfair practices that benefit a small group of companies, including Optiver, by sending large amounts of invalid data to maintain active connections and gain a speed advantage of approximately 3.2 nanoseconds [1][2]. - The CST strategy allegedly allows traders to send "corrupted" data packets to Eurex, enabling them to react faster to market information and execute trades ahead of competitors [3]. Group 2: Eurex's Response and Industry Implications - Eurex, part of the Deutsche Börse Group, has firmly denied the allegations, asserting that it has thoroughly reviewed concerns and has tools in place to detect abnormal data [2]. - Despite the denial, Eurex announced a system monitoring upgrade set to take effect in April, which is perceived as a response to the ongoing controversy surrounding the CST strategy [2][5]. Group 3: Impact on Market Participants - The controversy has had severe consequences for firms unable to utilize the CST strategy, with Mosaic Finance experiencing a 90% drop in profits in 2022, which they attribute to competitors gaining a speed advantage through the alleged tactics [4]. - Other firms, such as Emergent Trading, have acknowledged using similar techniques to gain speed advantages, indicating a broader acceptance of such practices within the industry [4]. Group 4: Future of High-Frequency Trading - The ongoing race for speed in high-frequency trading has evolved from milliseconds to nanoseconds, with firms continuously seeking optimization techniques to maintain competitive advantages [2][5]. - The anticipated system reforms by Eurex are expected to significantly diminish the effectiveness of the CST strategy, but industry insiders believe that traders will quickly adapt and find new methods to gain speed advantages in the future [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant concerns regarding the AI bubble, as evidenced by CoreWeave's market value plummeting by $33 billion, over 60%, within six weeks, alongside declines in Broadcom and Oracle's stock prices by more than 17% in three trading days [1][14]. Group 1: CoreWeave's Operational Challenges - CoreWeave's construction of a major AI data center cluster in Denton, Texas, has been delayed by approximately 60 days due to severe summer weather, impacting its ability to deliver 260 megawatts of computing power to OpenAI [3][6]. - The CEO's contradictory statements during the November earnings call heightened investor panic, as he initially downplayed the issue, only to be corrected by the CFO, indicating a broader problem affecting the entire data center supply chain [4][9]. - The construction delays have exposed systemic risks within the AI infrastructure industry, highlighting a widening gap between rapid construction and actual delivery capabilities, with significant valuations already priced in [5][11]. Group 2: Financial and Debt Concerns - CoreWeave's financial situation is precarious, with a recent quarterly revenue doubling to nearly $1.4 billion, yet the company reported a loss of $110 million, and its operating profit margin of about 4% is insufficient to cover debt interest payments [10]. - The company recently completed a $2.25 billion convertible bond issuance, which, while having a lower interest rate than typical asset-backed financing, poses risks of shareholder dilution and further stock price pressure [10]. - The cost of debt default insurance for CoreWeave has surged to 7.9 percentage points, reflecting growing concerns about its financial stability [10]. Group 3: Industry-Wide Implications - The turmoil at CoreWeave has raised broader questions about the AI industry's rapid growth and the timing and manner of significant capital investments yielding healthy profits [11][12]. - Delays in construction and supply chain bottlenecks are threatening to postpone spending plans worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which have already been factored into valuations across the industry [17]. - Oracle and Broadcom have also faced stock price declines due to concerns over delayed capital expenditures, indicating that the issues affecting CoreWeave are resonating throughout the entire tech sector [14][15].

供需关系的逆转将继续对价格端施加压力。受疲软的需求前景以及"史无前例的制造产能和库存"影响， 整个光伏产业链的价格在2026年之前都将维持在历史低位。 全球光伏行业正面临历史性转折点。据彭博新能源财经（BNEF）16日发布的全球光伏市场展望报告， 受主要市场政策调整及市场饱和影响，2026年全球光伏新增装机量预计将出现下滑，这将是该行业自 2000年有记录以来的首次年度萎缩。 报告数据显示，2026年全球光伏新增装机容量预计为649吉瓦（GW），较2025年略有下降。BNEF指 出，2025年的增长已是过去七年来最弱，而随后的收缩则标志着该行业在经历多年快速扩张后，正式进 入低增长阶段。 分析认为，尽管部分新兴市场有望保持强劲增长，但仍无法抵消市场缺口。在需求前景走弱及"史无前 例的制造产能和库存"压力下，产业链价格预计将在2026年之前维持在历史低位，行业复苏空间受限。 产业链价格承压与库存高企 BNEF在报告中预计，美国市场的增速将放缓。这一预期主要是基于美国总统特朗普致力于限制可再生 能源部署并重返化石燃料的政策导向。此外，西班牙和巴西等成熟市场也显现出增长乏力的迹象，快速 的产能建设导致弃光率上升及电 ...

欧元区12月服务业PMI初值 52.6，预期 53.3，前值 53.6。欧元区12月综合PMI初值 51.9，预期 52.6，前 值 52.8。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors has become the third domestic company to obtain an L3 autonomous driving road test license in China, marking a significant step towards commercial application of L3 autonomous driving technology [2][3] Group 1: License Acquisition and Testing - On December 16, Xiaopeng Motors announced it has received an L3 autonomous driving road test license in Guangzhou, enabling regular L3 road testing on designated high-speed roads [2][3] - The L3 license allows vehicles to operate independently in specific environments, contrasting with L2, which requires constant driver supervision [3] - Xiaopeng Motors is now positioned alongside Changan and BYD, who have also received similar testing qualifications [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng Motors aims for L4 level autonomous driving, with plans to launch vehicles equipped with L4 capabilities by 2026 [4] - The second-generation VLA software, expected to be mass-produced in Q1 2026, will feature a novel architecture that eliminates the "language translation" step, allowing direct generation of action commands from visual signals [4] - From Q3 2025, Xiaopeng's Ultra models will incorporate three self-developed Turing AI chips, achieving a computing power of 2250 TOPS [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition between Xiaopeng and Tesla is intensifying, with Xiaopeng's founder, He Xiaopeng, publicly challenging Tesla's FSD capabilities [5][6] - He Xiaopeng has acknowledged that while the first version of Xiaopeng's VLA does not fully match Tesla's FSD V14.2, the upcoming VLA 2.0 is expected to significantly improve performance [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The next decade is anticipated to be pivotal for L3 autonomous vehicles, with expectations of broader L4 applications [7] - The penetration rate of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is projected to exceed 40% by 2026, driven by the increasing adoption of high-end domestic chips [7] - As of the first nine months of 2025, the penetration rate for L2++ and above advanced driving assistance systems reached 25.01% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous depreciation of the Indian Rupee is becoming a significant obstacle to the recovery of the country's $5.4 trillion stock market, despite robust GDP data and a rebound in corporate earnings [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Impact - The Indian Rupee has been the worst-performing currency in Asia this year, eroding investor confidence and causing the benchmark Nifty index to fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. - The persistent decline of the Rupee is seen as a direct threat to market sentiment, with foreign capital outflows exacerbating market vulnerability [1][3]. - The Rupee's ongoing weakness is undermining confidence in the recovery of the Indian stock market, with Bloomberg data indicating that Indian equities are lagging behind most emerging market peers [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite some sectors experiencing merger and acquisition activity and cyclical opportunities, global investors are shifting funds to North Asian markets due to high valuations, slowing earnings growth, and a lack of exposure to artificial intelligence in the Indian stock market [3]. - The upcoming earnings season in December and the broader downward trend in Asian markets are making currency factors a central focus for investors [3].

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 昆仑芯即将完成股改，加速推进冲刺上市的步伐。一位知情人士透露，"大家都在关注，已经藏不住 了，但时间表还有待确认。"据了解，这一轮股改前，昆仑芯与多家券商进行沟通后决定转向港股。随 后作为大股东的百度公告称目前正就拟议分拆及对上市进行评估。百度强调若进行分拆及上市，须经相 关监管审批程序，而公司并不保证分拆及上市将会进行。（腾讯科技） ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission plans to relax the internal combustion engine ban originally set for 2035, allowing certain plug-in hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles with fuel range extenders to continue sales [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new proposal requires a 90% reduction in automotive exhaust emissions by the mid-next decade, which is a decrease from the previously set target of 100% [1] - Automakers will need to compensate for any additional pollution by using low-carbon or renewable fuels or locally produced green steel [1]

在美联储刚刚完成年内第三次降息、市场仍在为"明年1月还会不会继续降息"争论不休之际，因美国政府停摆延期的 非农就业报告，终于要在今晚揭晓，而且还是一次性端上两份——10月和11月报告。在鲍威尔明显转向"保就业"的 背景下，市场正在形成一种新的共识：就业数据的疲软，将增强美联储进一步降息的预期，可能推动美股上涨。 北京时间周二晚，美国劳工统计局（BLS）将同时公布10月和11月非农就业报告，但由于政府停摆期间暂停了家庭 调查，BLS不会公布10月失业率等数据。BLS已提前警告，11月家庭调查的统计误差将明显高于正常水平，未来几个 月相关数据的波动性也可能偏大。 从预期看，市场几乎没有形成共识。彭博调查显示，11月非农新增就业的中值仅为5万，预测区间从减少2万到增加 13万不等；失业率预计升至4.5%，若兑现将创2021年以来新高。至于10月非农，投行预测分歧更大，不少机构预计 将出现负增长。 高盛预计10月非农就业仅增加1万（私人部门增7万），11月增加5.5万（私人部门增5万），略高于市场共识但低于前 三个月平均水平。摩根士丹利则预测10月就业减少3万、11月增加5万，预计失业率将升至4.6%。 大摩首席美国 ...