Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest global strategy report highlights that the recent sharp rise in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields has significantly exceeded what can be explained by fiscal fundamentals, primarily driven by a re-evaluation of inflation expectations. The report anticipates that inflation will cool to around 1.5% by mid-year, which will be a key turning point for JGB and yen trends [1][6][11]. Group 1: Market Signals - The volatility in JGB yields is not indicative of a systemic risk event similar to the UK's 2022 "Truss crisis," as the Japanese stock market remains resilient, suggesting investors should avoid panic selling in interest-sensitive sectors [1][20]. - With the attractiveness of JGB yields increasing, a significant repatriation of domestic funds from overseas bond markets is expected after the new fiscal year starts in April, leading to a reallocation towards Japanese government bonds [1][21]. - A decline in inflation will drive up real interest rates, providing support for the yen, as real rates have a more significant impact on exchange rates compared to nominal interest differentials [1][9][10]. Group 2: Fiscal Fundamentals - Despite concerns about Japan's fiscal situation, recent data shows a clear disconnect between the volatility in JGB yields and actual fiscal fundamentals. Japan's public debt as a percentage of GDP has decreased by 11 percentage points since 2023, while the average for developed economies has increased by 2 percentage points [2][5]. - Japan's fiscal deficit is projected to be around 2% of GDP by 2026, significantly lower than the developed economies' average of 4.9%. Additionally, Japan's government interest payments account for only 1.3% of GDP, compared to 3.3% for developed economies [2][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rates - The surge in JGB yields is primarily driven by market inflation expectations rather than fiscal deficit pressures. Current inflation in Japan is mainly influenced by structural factors such as food prices, while underlying service sector inflation remains around 1% [6][11]. - If inflation cools as expected, it will more effectively enhance real yields than the Bank of Japan's interest rate policies, thereby providing crucial support for both JGBs and the yen [9][16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The traditional correlation between the yen and nominal interest rate differentials has weakened, with real interest rate differentials now serving as the core anchor for pricing. The theoretical value of USD/JPY based on real interest differentials aligns closely with current market rates [13][16]. - Japan's external position remains robust, with a net international investment position of +92% of GDP, contrasting sharply with the UK's -2.6% during its crisis. Japan also maintains a current account surplus of 4.8% of GDP, providing a stronger buffer against market volatility [17][20]. Group 5: Investment Trends - The primary risk to the market is not foreign investors selling JGBs but rather the potential large-scale repatriation of domestic funds from overseas bond markets, as JGB yields have surpassed globally hedged bond yields [21]. - The Japanese stock market shows significant structural differentiation, with a few stocks contributing to the majority of the Nikkei 225 index's gains, indicating a concentrated market driven by foreign investors and corporate buybacks, while domestic investors remain net sellers [21].

荷兰光刻机巨头阿斯麦将于本周三(1月28日)发布财报。摩根士丹利预计该公司将公布强劲的订单数 据，而市场焦点正从2026年转向2027年，后者可能成为公司业绩爆发的关键年份。 分析师指出，近期与买方机构的交流显示，市场预期已升至约20台EUV和70亿欧元以上。 值得注意的是，这将是阿斯麦最后一次公布季度订单数据。从下个季度开始，公司将仅提供年度积压订 单更新，这使得本次财报的订单数据格外重要。 2026年指引：聚焦收入增长与毛利率稳定 对于2026年全年展望，摩根士丹利认为市场关注点集中在四个方面： 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利最新研报维持阿斯麦"增持"评级（Top Pick）和1,400欧元目标价。Lee Simpson分析师团队在报告中表示，预计阿斯麦第四季度订单将达到72.7亿欧元，包括19台EUV低数值 孔径设备，显著高于市场此前50亿欧元以上的预期。 对于指引，分析师团队强调，市场对2026年的温和增长叙事已基本消化，10%的收入增长指引就能让市 场满意，真正的投资机会在于2027年——阿斯麦业绩爆发的关键年份。 大摩预计，阿斯麦2027年EUV设备需求可能达到80台，推动营收达到467.69亿欧元，同 ...

Core Insights - Baidu has officially announced the establishment of the Personal Super Intelligent Group (PSIG), which will integrate core AI applications such as cloud storage and document library, led by Vice President Wang Ying, reporting directly to CEO Li Yanhong [1] - The formation of PSIG signifies Baidu's strategic shift towards enhancing AI applications, aiming to transform these technologies into substantial revenue streams and address market skepticism regarding their monetization potential [1][3] - The competitive landscape in the AI sector is intensifying, with major players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent making significant investments in AI applications, highlighting the urgency for Baidu to solidify its position [2] Company Developments - The integration of cloud storage and document library under PSIG is intended to compensate for the growth limitations of Baidu's traditional search tools, leveraging its strengths in user data processing [1] - Baidu's document library currently boasts over 1.8 billion authoritative professional documents, with AI monthly active users exceeding 97 million, while Baidu Cloud has over 1 billion users and 80 million AI monthly active users [2] - The establishment of PSIG is seen as a proactive adjustment by Baidu in response to the evolving market dynamics, aiming to enhance user experience and commercial viability of AI applications [3] Industry Trends - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for AI-native applications, with expectations for a richer array of AI application scenarios and accelerated commercialization [3][4] - As user acceptance of AI assistants increases, the competition in the internet sector is expected to shift from mere traffic acquisition to a more balanced ecosystem involving algorithms, data, and diverse scenarios [4] - The urgency for revenue structure transformation is rising, with Baidu aiming to gain user and investor confidence in its AI transition strategy [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market risks and the necessity for investors to conduct thorough research before making investment decisions [1] Group 1 - The article highlights that market conditions can be volatile and unpredictable, which necessitates a cautious approach to investing [1] - It points out that individual investment strategies should align with personal financial goals and risk tolerance [1] - The need for investors to evaluate the relevance of opinions and conclusions presented in the article to their specific circumstances is stressed [1]

Core Insights - Altimeter Capital's partner Freda Duan highlights that while programming is currently the strongest AI application vertical, Excel has the potential to become the next "super vertical" in AI due to its billion-user scale [1] - Major industry players like OpenAI and Anthropic are actively expanding into the spreadsheet and productivity workflow sectors, indicating a significant shift in focus [1] - The potential market size for spreadsheets is larger than that of programming, and their unique characteristics as an "application software encapsulation layer" could reshape the entire software industry [1] Market Analysis - The programming sector has produced four companies with annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $1 billion, with at least seven others rapidly surpassing $100 million ARR, suggesting a strong growth model that Excel could replicate [1] - The programming market is estimated to have a total addressable market (TAM) of approximately $2 trillion, with a natural advantage in adjacent use cases and a product-driven go-to-market strategy [6] - Excel's user base is substantial, with over 1.1 million paid customers reported by Google Workspace and an estimated 1.5 billion active users globally, indicating a massive potential market [8] Strategic Implications - The financial sector is identified as a key entry point for AI-driven Excel tools, given its high per capita profit and willingness to pay for productivity tools [9] - Approximately 10% of the 1.5 billion Excel users belong to the financial sector, which includes over 6.7 million professionals in the U.S. financial services and insurance industry, providing an excellent initial market for AI applications [9] - The self-service and workflow-native nature of tools in this space could lead to faster expansion compared to other software categories, as evidenced by the programming sector [9]

据报道，英伟达向CoreWeave A类普通股投资20亿美元。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic GPU manufacturers are entering a phase of mass listing, with Shanghai Suiyuan Technology Co., Ltd. recently taking steps towards an IPO, aiming to raise 6 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Suiyuan Technology's IPO has been accepted, with plans to raise 6 billion yuan [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Suiyuan Technology reported revenues of 540 million yuan and a net loss of 888 million yuan [4]. - The company has a significant dependency on Tencent, which is both its largest external shareholder and a major customer, contributing over 70% of its revenue [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue from AI acceleration cards and modules surged from 37 million yuan in 2022 to 412 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking an increase of over 10 times [7]. - Sales to Tencent reached 330 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for nearly 60% of Suiyuan Technology's total revenue [9]. - Tencent's prepayments to Suiyuan Technology amounted to 326 million yuan as of September 2025, providing a stable cash flow [12]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Suiyuan Technology's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 36.23%, significantly lower than its peers, reflecting a strategy of offering high-cost performance products to deepen strategic cooperation [24]. - The company focuses on cloud AI computing, with its flagship product being the fourth-generation training and inference integrated product L600, which utilizes FP8 low-precision computing technology [24]. - The IPO proceeds will support the development of the fifth and sixth generation AI chips, with the 6 billion yuan target being substantial compared to other recent IPOs in the sector [25].

本周(1月29日)美联储议息会议的焦点已不再是单纯的利率决议，而是央行独立性所面临的严峻挑战。 随着特朗普政府对现任主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查，并试图解雇理事库克，这场通常按部就班的政策会议 已被政治风暴笼罩，市场正密切关注美联储能否在权力交接的关键时刻守住制度防线。 市场普遍预期，美联储将在本周会议上维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%的区间不变。在经历了数月的分歧 后，决策层内部似乎重获共识，多位官员暗示当前利率水平处于既能支撑就业又能压制通胀的"中性"区 域。然而，这一暂停降息的决定可能进一步激怒要求大幅降息以提振经济的特朗普总统。 相比于波澜不惊的政策预期，投资者的目光紧盯着鲍威尔的继任者提名以及他本人面临的法律压力。特 朗普即将公布新任美联储主席人选，而鲍威尔是否会在5月卸任主席后继续以理事身份留任，从而制衡 继任者，成为最大的悬念。尽管政治噪音干扰不断，债券收益率和通胀预期目前仍保持稳定，显示市场 对美联储的制度护栏尚未丧失信心。 继任者提名与权力交接 特朗普预计最早于本周宣布鲍威尔的继任者提名，这将是其试图全面掌控美联储的关键一步。最终候选 人名单包括特朗普的经济顾问Kevin Hassett、美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite a tumultuous start to 2026 with various policy shocks and geopolitical events, the S&P 500 index has managed to rise by 1.02% year-to-date, indicating resilience in the market [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 7800 points in 2026, driven by a recovery in mergers and acquisitions, stock issuance activities, and a resurgence in retail and corporate buying [2] - The Russell 2000 index has outperformed the S&P 500 for 14 consecutive trading days, marking the longest streak since 1996 [1] Market Breadth Expansion - Goldman Sachs views the expansion of market breadth as a healthy sign for the U.S. stock market, with institutional investors significantly increasing their positions, particularly in healthcare and financial sectors [4][5] - The improvement in market breadth is attributed to a broader set of investment opportunities arising from enhanced economic growth prospects and favorable Federal Reserve policies, despite uncertainties surrounding the earnings outlook of large tech stocks [5] Institutional Positioning - Institutional investor positions have reached extreme levels, with total exposure at 302%, indicating a significant increase in long positions, although this may not provide upward momentum in 2026 [8] - Cash levels among asset management companies are at historical lows, suggesting a shift towards increased risk-taking in the market [8] Sector Insights - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on the transportation sector, which is benefiting from supply reductions and improved pricing dynamics following a period of oversupply [10] - The transportation sector is also seen as a beneficiary of artificial intelligence applications, enhancing productivity and market share for companies within this space [10]

紫金矿业集团旗下子公司同意以55亿加元收购加拿大矿企Allied Gold，进一步巩固其在全球黄金生产领 域的地位。 消息公布后，Allied Gold美股盘前一度涨近9%。 根据此前公告，紫金黄金国际与Allied Gold Corporation签署《安排协议》，紫金黄金国际拟以44加元/ 股的现金价格，收购联合黄金全部已发行的普通股，收购对价共计约55亿加元（约合人民币280亿 元）。 紫金矿业已在非洲拥有多个项目，包括在刚果民主共和国的铜矿和锂矿资产，以及在加纳的一座金矿。 此次收购Allied Gold将进一步扩大其在非洲的黄金业务布局。 紫金矿业近年来迅速崛起，已成为全球最大的黄金和铜生产商之一。随着金价持续攀升，中国矿企正加 快在海外黄金资产领域的收购步伐，以满足国内需求并提升全球市场份额。 Allied Gold在非洲运营金矿资产，在马里和科特迪瓦拥有运营中的金矿，并在埃塞俄比亚开发新项目。 此次收购将为紫金矿业增添三座金矿，这些矿山预计去年产金量达40万盎司。 扩大非洲黄金版图 此次收购将为紫金矿业的资产组合新增三座金矿，预计去年产金量最高可达40万盎司。其中，马里的 Sadiola金矿占该 ...