Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set to undergo annual rebalancing, leading to significant selling pressure on silver, with an estimated $7.7 billion in silver sell orders expected to enter the market over the next two weeks, equating to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market [1][6][7]. Group 1: Rebalancing Impact - The rebalancing will reduce the weight of gold from 20.4% to 14.9%, with silver also facing a weight reduction [1][2]. - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates that silver will experience the largest selling pressure during the rebalancing period, followed by aluminum and gold [2]. - The rebalancing period is scheduled from January 9 to January 15 [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - TD Securities highlights that the trading volume of the largest silver ETF has reached extreme levels, typically seen only at market peaks, indicating speculative fervor among retail investors [1][6]. - The report suggests that the recent surge in silver prices is not reflective of demand or supply fundamentals, but rather a speculative bubble that may lead to significant price corrections [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Goldman Sachs presents a contrasting view, emphasizing that liquidity in the London market is crucial for determining silver price movements. They predict that extreme price volatility will persist as long as the tight inventory situation in London remains unresolved [1][8]. - The tight inventory in London has led to increased borrowing costs for physical silver, indicating a supply squeeze [9][11]. Group 4: Future Price Projections - Goldman Sachs notes that lower inventory levels have created conditions for price squeezes, with sensitivity to demand changes significantly heightened during tight supply situations [11]. - If liquidity in London improves, there could be a notable downside risk for silver prices, especially if silver currently held in the U.S. returns to London, alleviating the tightness [12].

华纳兄弟探索公司董事会拒绝了派拉蒙天舞修订后的收购要约，对派拉蒙千亿杠杆收购的可行性存疑。 周三华纳兄弟董事会在致股东信中表示，相比Netflix以每股27.75美元现金加股票收购其影视和流媒体业务的方案，派拉蒙的提议存在重大风险和 不确定性。 尽管亿万富翁Larry Ellison承诺个人担保404亿美元股权融资，支持派拉蒙以每股30美元的现金发起敌意收购，但华纳兄弟怀疑派拉蒙能否完成交 易，依旧选择拒绝修订后的收购要约。 华纳兄弟第七大股东Pentwater资管公司警告称，董事会若不与派拉蒙接洽是在"犯错"，并威胁在下次选举中反对所有董事会成员并投票反对 Netflix合并。 华纳兄弟股价周三涨0.33%至28.55美元，仍低于派拉蒙的报价。 融资结构引发交易风险担忧 派拉蒙的融资安排仍是关键症结。 华纳兄弟董事会重申了对超过500亿美元借款要求的担忧。据华纳兄弟在信中所述，市值约140亿美元的派拉蒙正在尝试一项需要946.5亿美元债务 和股权融资的收购，几乎是其总市值的七倍。 华纳兄弟表示： 如此巨额的债务融资以及派拉蒙报价的其他条款加剧了交易失败风险，尤其是与Netflix合并的确定性相比。目标公司或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has officially initiated a global sales plan for Venezuelan oil, asserting indefinite control over the country's future oil exports and revenues, marking a significant shift in the management of Venezuela's oil resources following the ousting of President Maduro [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Control Over Venezuelan Oil - The White House has begun selling Venezuelan oil globally, with proceeds deposited into U.S.-controlled bank accounts, allowing the government to decide on the distribution of funds [1][6]. - Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette emphasized that the U.S. will indefinitely control the sales of Venezuelan oil, including both existing stock and future production, focusing on controlling the flow of funds rather than seizing the oil itself [7][8]. - The initial oil sales will come from accumulated stockpiles due to U.S. sanctions, with the aim of stabilizing and increasing Venezuelan oil production [8][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the announcement, WTI crude oil prices fell below $55.80, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.4%, while Brent crude also saw a decrease of nearly 1.5% [2]. - The U.S. military has intensified actions against sanctioned oil tankers, including the seizure of two vessels linked to Venezuela, which could significantly impact global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics [5][10]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment Plans - The Trump administration is pushing for U.S. oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure, with discussions already underway with several firms [5][9]. - The U.S. government is considering a compensation mechanism for American oil companies investing in Venezuela, as it aims to restore the country's oil production to previous levels, which may require substantial investment [9][8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a trend of concentration dispersion at the beginning of 2026, with earnings growth becoming the core driver of market increases. Goldman Sachs predicts the S&P 500 index will rise to 7600 points in 2026, primarily driven by a 12% growth in earnings [1]. Market Structure Changes - Since the start of 2026, the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta, have collectively declined by approximately 0.5%, while the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 have increased by 2.5%. This shift indicates a reallocation of assets by investors, with industrial, healthcare, and technology sectors performing notably well in the first three trading days of the year [1]. Economic Growth and Earnings Projections - Goldman Sachs' Managing Director Chris Hussey notes that accelerated U.S. economic growth combined with loose monetary policy will drive the rise of cyclical sectors in early 2026, including small-cap stocks and companies related to non-residential construction. The firm expects S&P 500 constituent earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 12% in 2026 and by 10% in 2027 [2][3]. Key Investment Themes - Five key investment themes for the U.S. stock market in 2026 have been identified: 1. Mid-cycle acceleration, recommending an increase in cyclical stocks, including industrial and HVAC-related stocks [4]. 2. "Massive Re-leveraging," where financial stocks will benefit as companies increase borrowing for future investments [5]. 3. Focus on the application of artificial intelligence (AI), with investment opportunities in companies deploying AI solutions to reduce costs [5]. 4. "Revival of the Arts," where private equity is expected to see a resurgence in exits, distributions, and fundraising due to a rebound in IPOs and M&A activity [5]. 5. Value investment opportunities, particularly in the healthcare sector, as favorable macroeconomic conditions suggest continued strong performance of value factors [5]. Risks to Monitor - Goldman Sachs highlights three key risks: the potential for economic recession due to worsening employment, the possibility of slowing AI growth impacting the overall economy, and interest rate risks. While the firm predicts moderate fluctuations in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries, accelerated GDP growth typically accompanies rising yields, which could pose challenges for the stock market [6].

Core Viewpoint - Anthropic has raised $10 billion in funding at a valuation of $350 billion, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's potential within the AI sector [1] Group 1: Funding and Valuation - Anthropic's recent funding round has successfully secured $10 billion, reflecting a significant investment in the company's future growth [1] - The company's valuation has reached $350 billion, showcasing its position as a major player in the artificial intelligence industry [1]

1月7日晚间，智谱AI在港交所公告发售价及配发结果，香港公开发售获1159.46倍认购，国际发售获15.28倍认购；发售价116.20港元，所得款项净 额41.734亿港元。今日智谱港股暗盘表现亮眼，一度涨近38%至160港元。 智谱将于1月8日开始在香港联交所主板买卖，成为全球资本市场首家以通用人工智能（AGI）基座模型为核心业务的上市公司。 早在2025年4月，智谱曾在证监会北京监管局开启A股上市辅导备案。但截至12月12日，公司并未收到中国证监会关于推进A股上市的进一步意见 或问询。在此背景下，智谱选择转向港股，为这场高投入、长周期的大模型竞赛寻找更可持续的燃料。 | 有效申請數目 | 204,871 | | --- | --- | | 獲接納申請數目 | 50.907 | | 認購水平 | 1,159.46倍 | | 觸發回補機制 | 是 | | 公開發售項下初步可供認購發售股份數目 | 1,871,000 | | 公開發售項下發售股份的最終數目(重新分配後) | 7,483,900 | | 公開發售項下發售股份數目佔全球發售項下發售股份數目的百 20.00% | | | 分比 | | GLM技术体系 ...

Group 1 - The Indian government expects the economy to grow over 7% this fiscal year, maintaining its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally [1] - The GDP is projected to grow by 7.4% for the fiscal year ending in March, slightly below the economists' median forecast of 7.5% [1] - The nominal GDP is expected to reach approximately 357.14 trillion rupees (4 trillion USD) [1] Group 2 - Concerns arise among economists regarding the nominal GDP growth being lower than expected, indicating potential pressure on the government to cut spending to meet deficit targets [1] - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indian exports, particularly a 50% tariff on certain goods, are creating uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2] - The labor-intensive export sectors in India, such as textiles, gems, and leather products, have been significantly impacted by these tariffs [2]

在角逐"港股量贩零食第一股"的竞赛中，鸣鸣很忙率先冲线。 相比之下，2025年上半年其营收增速尚未超过GMV，分别达86.5%、86.9%。 对量贩零食企业而言，GMV通常反映终端消费流水，营收则主要来自向加盟商销售商品以及收取服务 费。 1月6日，鸣鸣很忙披露聆讯后资料集，显示其已通过港交所上市聆讯。 回顾2025年，量贩零食两大龙头在奔赴港交所的同时，"攻城略地"一刻未停。 至2025年9月底，鸣鸣很忙全国在营门店数净增6585家，总量达到19517家，签约门店数突破2万大关。 另一边，万辰集团在2024年至2025年上半年间，门店规模同样快速增长，新增超过1万家，总量达到 15365家。 两家龙头门店总数已逼近4万家，量贩零食渠道凭借其庞大的网络，已成为休闲食品行业中举足轻重的 存在。 截至2025年第三季度末，鸣鸣很忙约34%的产品为与供应商合作开发的定制商品。 这种规模效应与议价能力直观地体现在了财务增长上。 2025年前三季度，鸣鸣很忙实现营收463.71亿元，同比增速75.2%；同期商品交易总额（GMV）增速 74.5%。 营收增速高于GMV增速，说明公司从终端交易额中留存为自身收入的比例在提高 ...

Core Insights - The JOLTS job openings in the U.S. for November stood at 7.146 million, which is below the expected 7.6 million and the previous value of 7.67 million [1] Summary by Category - **Job Openings Data** - November's job openings decreased to 7.146 million from the previous month's 7.67 million [1] - The actual figure fell short of market expectations of 7.6 million [1]

风险提示及免责条款 美国12月ISM非制造业指数 54.4，预期 52.2，前值 52.6。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...