Core Viewpoint - The recent social media posts by President Trump have caused significant volatility in the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting the housing and defense sectors due to policy uncertainty [2][4]. Housing Sector - Trump announced plans to "immediately" prohibit large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, aiming to address housing affordability issues. This announcement led to panic selling in related stocks, including major private equity firms and large rental companies [2][4]. - The stock prices of major residential real estate investors like Blackstone and Invitation Homes saw significant declines, with Blackstone dropping as much as 9.3% during trading [6]. - Analysts express skepticism regarding the actual impact of institutional investors on housing affordability, noting that the largest 24 single-family rental owners only account for about 3.5% of the total rental market [10]. Defense Sector - Following the housing announcement, Trump targeted defense contractors, warning them against paying dividends or repurchasing stocks unless they accelerate production and maintenance of military equipment. This led to a decline in defense stocks, including RTX Corp. [8]. - However, after announcing a proposed military budget of $1.5 trillion for 2027, defense stocks rebounded in after-hours trading, indicating a mixed market reaction to Trump's statements [8][10]. Market Reaction - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 0.3% after initially approaching the 7000-point mark, reflecting the market's struggle to interpret the implications of Trump's rapid-fire social media communications [2][10]. - Market analysts highlighted the challenges of digesting information released directly via social media without any buffering, suggesting that this could lead to dangerous market adjustments [10].

Core Viewpoint - Tether has launched a new unit of measurement called "Scudo" for its gold-backed stablecoin XAUT, aiming to enhance the use of gold in payment systems [1][2]. Group 1: Introduction of Scudo - Tether introduced "Scudo," which is defined as one-thousandth of a troy ounce of gold, equivalent to one-thousandth of the value of its gold-backed token XAUT, currently valued at approximately $4.48 [1][2]. - The term "Scudo" has historical roots dating back to the 16th century, used to describe various Italian coins, and is derived from the Latin word for "shield" [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Growth - Tether cites ongoing inflation concerns, interest rate uncertainty, record central bank gold purchases, and increased demand for safe-haven assets as factors creating an opportunity for gold to regain its status as a widely accepted payment medium [2][7]. - The market capitalization of Tether's XAUT has reached $2.3 billion, growing nearly threefold over the past year, with Tether claiming to hold 116 tons of gold valued at nearly $17 billion as of the end of Q3 2025 [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The introduction of Scudo is seen as a response to the competitive landscape in the gold token market, particularly with Paxos launching PAXG, a gold-backed digital asset that has also seen significant growth [6][9]. - Paxos' PAXG has a market capitalization of $1.7 billion, having doubled in the past year, and is now the only gold token issued under federal regulatory oversight following approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency [9]. Group 4: Accessibility and Adoption - Tether emphasizes that the introduction of Scudo lowers the entry barrier, allowing anyone to own, price, and trade a small portion of gold, which is considered a trusted asset [5]. - Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, stated that gold is proving to be a significant store of value alongside Bitcoin, and the digitalization of gold through XAUT is a step towards broader accessibility [5].

全球债券市场正经历有史以来最繁忙的开局。 周三仍有11家借款人进入市场，预计本周晚些时候还将有更多交易达成。本周的发行量有望达到自2020 年以来的最高水平，当时市场因疫情期间的刺激措施而充斥着流动性。 此外，承销商预计，在下周发布财报并解禁债务销售后，美国最大的几家银行也将掀起新一轮发债潮。 1月8日，据彭博汇编的数据显示，截至1月7日，美国、欧洲和亚洲的企业及政府在各类货币市场的借款 总额已达约2450亿美元。这一数字创下了同期历史最高纪录。美国投资级债券两日发行720亿美元，欧 洲单日融资额超570亿欧元，均刷新纪录。 随着企业在下周即将进入财报静默期前竞相锁定资金，去年12月搁置融资计划的发行人正蜂拥入市。尽 管全球地缘政治紧张局势升级，买家热情依然不减。这股发债狂潮覆盖了从高评级蓝筹股到高收益债券 的各个领域，同时也反映出借款人意图赶在与人工智能项目相关的债券发行激增之前抢占先机。 市场需求强劲消化了巨量供应，新发行的溢价几乎可以忽略不计。摩根大通投资组合经理Priya Misra表 示："这一年的开局一鸣惊人。需求一直跟得上供应，几乎没有任何新发行折让。" 1月通常是全球债券销售最繁忙的月份之一， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set to undergo annual rebalancing, leading to significant selling pressure on silver, with an estimated $7.7 billion in silver sell orders expected to enter the market over the next two weeks, equating to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market [1][6][7]. Group 1: Rebalancing Impact - The rebalancing will reduce the weight of gold from 20.4% to 14.9%, with silver also facing a weight reduction [1][2]. - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates that silver will experience the largest selling pressure during the rebalancing period, followed by aluminum and gold [2]. - The rebalancing period is scheduled from January 9 to January 15 [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - TD Securities highlights that the trading volume of the largest silver ETF has reached extreme levels, typically seen only at market peaks, indicating speculative fervor among retail investors [1][6]. - The report suggests that the recent surge in silver prices is not reflective of demand or supply fundamentals, but rather a speculative bubble that may lead to significant price corrections [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Goldman Sachs presents a contrasting view, emphasizing that liquidity in the London market is crucial for determining silver price movements. They predict that extreme price volatility will persist as long as the tight inventory situation in London remains unresolved [1][8]. - The tight inventory in London has led to increased borrowing costs for physical silver, indicating a supply squeeze [9][11]. Group 4: Future Price Projections - Goldman Sachs notes that lower inventory levels have created conditions for price squeezes, with sensitivity to demand changes significantly heightened during tight supply situations [11]. - If liquidity in London improves, there could be a notable downside risk for silver prices, especially if silver currently held in the U.S. returns to London, alleviating the tightness [12].

华纳兄弟探索公司董事会拒绝了派拉蒙天舞修订后的收购要约，对派拉蒙千亿杠杆收购的可行性存疑。 周三华纳兄弟董事会在致股东信中表示，相比Netflix以每股27.75美元现金加股票收购其影视和流媒体业务的方案，派拉蒙的提议存在重大风险和 不确定性。 尽管亿万富翁Larry Ellison承诺个人担保404亿美元股权融资，支持派拉蒙以每股30美元的现金发起敌意收购，但华纳兄弟怀疑派拉蒙能否完成交 易，依旧选择拒绝修订后的收购要约。 华纳兄弟第七大股东Pentwater资管公司警告称，董事会若不与派拉蒙接洽是在"犯错"，并威胁在下次选举中反对所有董事会成员并投票反对 Netflix合并。 华纳兄弟股价周三涨0.33%至28.55美元，仍低于派拉蒙的报价。 融资结构引发交易风险担忧 派拉蒙的融资安排仍是关键症结。 华纳兄弟董事会重申了对超过500亿美元借款要求的担忧。据华纳兄弟在信中所述，市值约140亿美元的派拉蒙正在尝试一项需要946.5亿美元债务 和股权融资的收购，几乎是其总市值的七倍。 华纳兄弟表示： 如此巨额的债务融资以及派拉蒙报价的其他条款加剧了交易失败风险，尤其是与Netflix合并的确定性相比。目标公司或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has officially initiated a global sales plan for Venezuelan oil, asserting indefinite control over the country's future oil exports and revenues, marking a significant shift in the management of Venezuela's oil resources following the ousting of President Maduro [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Control Over Venezuelan Oil - The White House has begun selling Venezuelan oil globally, with proceeds deposited into U.S.-controlled bank accounts, allowing the government to decide on the distribution of funds [1][6]. - Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette emphasized that the U.S. will indefinitely control the sales of Venezuelan oil, including both existing stock and future production, focusing on controlling the flow of funds rather than seizing the oil itself [7][8]. - The initial oil sales will come from accumulated stockpiles due to U.S. sanctions, with the aim of stabilizing and increasing Venezuelan oil production [8][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the announcement, WTI crude oil prices fell below $55.80, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.4%, while Brent crude also saw a decrease of nearly 1.5% [2]. - The U.S. military has intensified actions against sanctioned oil tankers, including the seizure of two vessels linked to Venezuela, which could significantly impact global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics [5][10]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment Plans - The Trump administration is pushing for U.S. oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure, with discussions already underway with several firms [5][9]. - The U.S. government is considering a compensation mechanism for American oil companies investing in Venezuela, as it aims to restore the country's oil production to previous levels, which may require substantial investment [9][8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a trend of concentration dispersion at the beginning of 2026, with earnings growth becoming the core driver of market increases. Goldman Sachs predicts the S&P 500 index will rise to 7600 points in 2026, primarily driven by a 12% growth in earnings [1]. Market Structure Changes - Since the start of 2026, the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta, have collectively declined by approximately 0.5%, while the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 have increased by 2.5%. This shift indicates a reallocation of assets by investors, with industrial, healthcare, and technology sectors performing notably well in the first three trading days of the year [1]. Economic Growth and Earnings Projections - Goldman Sachs' Managing Director Chris Hussey notes that accelerated U.S. economic growth combined with loose monetary policy will drive the rise of cyclical sectors in early 2026, including small-cap stocks and companies related to non-residential construction. The firm expects S&P 500 constituent earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 12% in 2026 and by 10% in 2027 [2][3]. Key Investment Themes - Five key investment themes for the U.S. stock market in 2026 have been identified: 1. Mid-cycle acceleration, recommending an increase in cyclical stocks, including industrial and HVAC-related stocks [4]. 2. "Massive Re-leveraging," where financial stocks will benefit as companies increase borrowing for future investments [5]. 3. Focus on the application of artificial intelligence (AI), with investment opportunities in companies deploying AI solutions to reduce costs [5]. 4. "Revival of the Arts," where private equity is expected to see a resurgence in exits, distributions, and fundraising due to a rebound in IPOs and M&A activity [5]. 5. Value investment opportunities, particularly in the healthcare sector, as favorable macroeconomic conditions suggest continued strong performance of value factors [5]. Risks to Monitor - Goldman Sachs highlights three key risks: the potential for economic recession due to worsening employment, the possibility of slowing AI growth impacting the overall economy, and interest rate risks. While the firm predicts moderate fluctuations in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries, accelerated GDP growth typically accompanies rising yields, which could pose challenges for the stock market [6].

Core Viewpoint - Anthropic has raised $10 billion in funding at a valuation of $350 billion, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's potential within the AI sector [1] Group 1: Funding and Valuation - Anthropic's recent funding round has successfully secured $10 billion, reflecting a significant investment in the company's future growth [1] - The company's valuation has reached $350 billion, showcasing its position as a major player in the artificial intelligence industry [1]

1月7日晚间，智谱AI在港交所公告发售价及配发结果，香港公开发售获1159.46倍认购，国际发售获15.28倍认购；发售价116.20港元，所得款项净 额41.734亿港元。今日智谱港股暗盘表现亮眼，一度涨近38%至160港元。 智谱将于1月8日开始在香港联交所主板买卖，成为全球资本市场首家以通用人工智能（AGI）基座模型为核心业务的上市公司。 早在2025年4月，智谱曾在证监会北京监管局开启A股上市辅导备案。但截至12月12日，公司并未收到中国证监会关于推进A股上市的进一步意见 或问询。在此背景下，智谱选择转向港股，为这场高投入、长周期的大模型竞赛寻找更可持续的燃料。 | 有效申請數目 | 204,871 | | --- | --- | | 獲接納申請數目 | 50.907 | | 認購水平 | 1,159.46倍 | | 觸發回補機制 | 是 | | 公開發售項下初步可供認購發售股份數目 | 1,871,000 | | 公開發售項下發售股份的最終數目(重新分配後) | 7,483,900 | | 公開發售項下發售股份數目佔全球發售項下發售股份數目的百 20.00% | | | 分比 | | GLM技术体系 ...

Group 1 - The Indian government expects the economy to grow over 7% this fiscal year, maintaining its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally [1] - The GDP is projected to grow by 7.4% for the fiscal year ending in March, slightly below the economists' median forecast of 7.5% [1] - The nominal GDP is expected to reach approximately 357.14 trillion rupees (4 trillion USD) [1] Group 2 - Concerns arise among economists regarding the nominal GDP growth being lower than expected, indicating potential pressure on the government to cut spending to meet deficit targets [1] - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indian exports, particularly a 50% tariff on certain goods, are creating uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2] - The labor-intensive export sectors in India, such as textiles, gems, and leather products, have been significantly impacted by these tariffs [2]