12月19日，在华尔街见闻和中欧国际工商学院联合主办的「Alpha峰会」上，Clocktower首席策略师王凯文发表题为《地缘宏观范式迁移下的全球 资产再配置》的演讲。 他表示，美国新版《国家安全战略》是一份由前对冲基金研究主管撰写的"重磅文件"，首次官方承认美国单极霸权、自由国际主义及新保守主义 同时"死亡"，标志着美国进行战略收缩，并接受多极化与势力范围现实。这一根本性地缘转变，正通过"离岸平衡"策略、传统盟友恐慌性财政扩 张、与全球人口结构变化导致的"储蓄干涸"相结合，重塑全球宏观与资产定价逻辑。 他认为，美元已步入史上幅度最大的熊市，未来5-8年贬值幅度可能接近40%，这迫使全球资本必须从过度集中的美元资产中撤离。 在这一框架 下，严重低配的中国资产或成为未来十年最大的"逼空"机会，而黄金牛市未终，白银潜力更为可观。 展望2026年，市场需警惕通胀反复下美联储政策转向的风险，美股则已处于由盈利驱动但估值停滞的"牛市最后一程"。 以下为演讲精彩观点： 1.美元步入"史上最大熊市"：地缘格局巨变、美国不负责任的顺周期财政扩张，以及最终必然的债务货币化路径，将导致美元信用崩 溃。与1970年代不同，此次地缘 ...

在AI行业烧钱竞赛愈发激烈之际，OpenAI展现出令人瞩目的运营效率提升。据The Information周日报 道，该公司的计算利润率在不到两年时间内从约35%飙升至70%，显示其在控制AI模型运营成本方面取 得显著进展。 这一改善发生在OpenAI寻求高达1000亿美元融资的关键时刻。计算利润率的大幅提升意味着公司从每 一美元的服务器支出中获得了更多收入，这对潜在投资者而言是一个积极信号。 CEO Sam Altman近日在播客访谈中直言："如果我们不继续大幅增加训练成本，我们早就盈利了。"这 一表态凸显了AI行业面临的核心矛盾——在追求技术突破与财务可持续性之间的艰难平衡。 类似的效率提升趋势在整个AI行业中出现，竞争对手Anthropic同样在大幅改善其计算成本结构，反映 了行业在运营优化方面的共同努力。 运营效率显著改善，但仍低于传统软件公司 OpenAI的计算利润率改善轨迹令人印象深刻。据知情人士透露，该指标从2024年1月的约35%，提升至 去年底的52%，并在今年10月达到约70%。这一利润率反映了公司在扣除为付费用户运行AI模型的成本 后，从收入中保留的份额。 尽管取得显著进步，但70%的计 ...

Core Insights - Two Chinese AI unicorns, Zhiyu and MiniMax, submitted their IPO applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange within 48 hours, showcasing different commercialization paths in the AI large model sector [1] - The IPO documents reveal distinct business models: MiniMax focuses on consumer-driven applications, while Zhiyu emphasizes enterprise-level services [8][9] Group 1: Business Models - MiniMax's business model is centered around "AI Native Apps," with significant revenue growth projected from $758,000 in 2023 to $21.8 million in 2024, and reaching $38 million in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 71.1% of total revenue [3][4] - MiniMax's average monthly active users (MAU) are expected to surge from 3.1 million in 2023 to 27.6 million by September 2025, with paid user numbers reaching 1.77 million and average revenue per paid user (ARPPU) increasing from $6 to $15 [4][5] - Zhiyu AI focuses on enterprise services, with local deployment revenue reaching 162 million RMB by June 2025, constituting 84.8% of total revenue [10][11] Group 2: Financial Performance - MiniMax's gross margin improved from -24.7% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2024, and further to 23.3% in the first nine months of 2025, indicating effective cost control and revenue growth [18][27] - Zhiyu AI reported a gross margin of 50%, with local deployment services achieving a high margin of 59.1% in the first half of 2025, although its cloud deployment business faced declining margins [20][25] Group 3: R&D Investments - Both companies are heavily investing in R&D, with Zhiyu AI's R&D expenses reaching 1.595 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, resulting in a staggering R&D expense ratio of 835.4% [25][26] - MiniMax's R&D expense ratio decreased from over 2000% in 2023 to 337.4% in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting improved operational efficiency as revenue grows [27] Group 4: Market Focus - MiniMax is highly globalized, with only 26.9% of its revenue coming from mainland China in 2025, while Zhiyu AI primarily targets the domestic market, focusing on state-owned enterprises and large institutions [30][32] - The shareholder structures of both companies include major tech players, with MiniMax backed by Alibaba and Tencent, while Zhiyu AI has a more diversified investor base including state-owned funds [32][33] Group 5: Future Outlook - Both companies have sufficient cash reserves to continue their technological advancements, with MiniMax holding approximately $1 billion and Zhiyu AI having 2.55 billion RMB in cash equivalents [34] - The IPO submissions signal a shift in the Chinese AI industry from a focus on technology to a more commercialized approach, with both companies vying to become leaders in the large model sector [34]

一场由人工智能（AI）驱动的基础设施"淘金热"正在重塑全球数据中心市场，其主角不再仅仅是科技巨 头，而是数以千计背景各异的新进入者，这股浪潮正吸引着数万亿美元的投资，并可能对全球经济产生 深远影响。 据彭博新闻社汇编的数据，这股建设热潮的规模空前。仅在2025年，美国的数据中心信贷交易额就已达 到至少1785亿美元。科技巨头甲骨文、Meta和Alphabet等公司已帮助将今年的全球债券发行总额推高至 超过6.57万亿美元。摩根大通预计，为给这场全球性的建设提供资金，发行人几乎将动用所有主要的债 务市场。 然而，这股热潮的核心变化在于市场参与者的构成。数据显示，未来规划的数据中心容量中，大部分将 由大型科技公司以外的"新玩家"和其它行业参与者建设。这一结构性转变在分散风险的同时，也带来了 新的隐忧：如果AI的商业前景被证伪，其崩溃可能通过这些新玩家波及全球经济的各个角落，触及股 权和债务市场的每一个环节。 大型科技公司自身也在调整策略，它们正越来越多地选择租赁而非自建数据中心，从而将巨额的债务负 担和建设风险转移给开发商。微软首席执行官Satya Nadella在预测计算能力将出现"过度建设"时，直言 这正是他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for NVIDIA's next-generation AI servers, specifically the GB300 series, is expected to surge, with small-scale shipments starting by the end of this year and large-scale production anticipated in the first half of next year, leading to a projected annual shipment of 55,000 units in 2024, representing a 129% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Group 1: Demand and Market Dynamics - Major cloud service providers such as Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, and Dell are showing strong demand for the GB300 servers, while Google and Amazon AWS are expected to order between 3,000 to 4,000 units [1]. - The GB300 series is anticipated to have a higher unit price and overall value compared to its predecessor due to improvements in key components like cooling systems and connectors, which will positively impact the performance of supply chain vendors [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Insights - Foxconn and Quanta are the primary contract manufacturers for the GB300 orders, with Foxconn being a major supplier for Microsoft and Oracle, while Quanta has secured some orders from Oracle and Microsoft despite losing some Meta orders [3]. - Other key component suppliers, including TSMC, Delta Electronics, and others, are expected to benefit from the increased demand for AI servers [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Production Capacity - Major contract manufacturers are optimistic about future orders, with Quanta indicating that order visibility extends to 2027 due to increasing demand from cloud service providers [4]. - Foxconn is expanding its production capacity in various states to meet the urgent needs of clients, with significant improvements in production yield and expectations for high double-digit growth in quarterly shipments [4].

华尔街正为2026年美股市场的持续动荡做准备，投资者在对人工智能反弹的错失恐惧症（FOMO）与资 产泡沫即将破裂的焦虑之间反复摇摆。 策略师们指出，过去18个月市场呈现出大规模抛售与快速反转并存的特征，这一趋势极有可能在2026年 延续。随着AI技术革命经历繁荣与萧条的循环，处于投资热潮中心的科技巨头将继续对市场施加巨大 的影响力，其股价的大幅波动预计将成为常态。 除了宏观叙事，技术因素也在重塑期权定价。 花旗集团英国、欧洲、中东及非洲机构结构负责人Antoine Porcheret预计，2026年波动率曲线将加剧陡 峭化。这主要是由于投资流动的失衡：在曲线的短端，量化投资策略（QIS）和波动率卖出策略的显著 增长提供了大量供应，抑制了短期波动率；而在长端，对冲资金流将使波动率保持在高位。 尽管2025年科技股的强劲表现与其他板块的疲软相互抵消，这种各板块间的背离在一定程度上抑制了市 场的实际波动率，但投资者仍需警惕芯片股下跌可能引发的风险扩散。一旦宏观驱动因素重新占据主导 地位，此前被压抑的波动性可能导致Cboe波动率指数（VIX）等指标急剧飙升。 据美国银行的调查显示，尽管股价涨幅令基金经理将泡沫担忧视为 ...

一名渠道人士认为，小米部分交付中心由传统4S店改造而来，运营成本较高，此外，在近期舆论影响 下，小米部分门店也承受压力。对小米而言，稳定渠道才能维持正常的销售运营，给经销商发补贴是最 可行的办法。 当前小米汽车月交付量已突破4万辆，但在渠道、服务等方面还亟需补课。 过去一年里，小米一方面在安徽芜湖等地，接手传统豪车品牌4S店场地，改造成交付中心，一方面则 是在通过降低准入门槛等方式，加速售后服务渠道覆盖。 作者 | 周智宇 编辑 | 张晓玲 临近年末，雷军撒出过亿红包。 近日，有消息称，小米将给经销商发放资金补助，主要针对车融合店，预计整体发放金额累计超过1亿 元。对此，小米方面回应华尔街见闻消息属实。 在汽车行业，主机厂给经销商发放补贴是个惯常操作，但对于小米而言是首次。 通过给经销商发放补贴，主机厂可以缓解经销商压力，又能激励经销商冲刺销量。车企通常会根据市场 节奏在半年、年末等冲量节点额外加码对经销商的现金激励。今年上半年，比亚迪就曾对连续三年针 对"完成销售目标的经销商"发放现金奖励，每辆车666元，部分门店补贴超50万元。 此次小米对2024年建成的门店每家补贴10万元，2025年12月15日前新建 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 现货铂金自2008年以来首次升破2,000美元/盎司。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

12月5年期以上LPR为3.5%，1年期LPR为3%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - Biren Technology, known as one of the "Four Little Dragons of Domestic GPUs," is making significant strides towards becoming the first GPU stock in Hong Kong, with plans to issue 247,692,800 H-shares priced between HKD 17.00 and HKD 19.60, potentially raising up to HKD 48.55 billion [1][2][6]. Group 1: IPO Details - The company plans to issue 247,692,800 H-shares, with 95% allocated for international sale and 5% for public sale in Hong Kong [2][4]. - The expected trading date for the H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is January 2 of the following year [1]. - The entry fee for retail investors is approximately HKD 3,959.54 for a minimum purchase of 200 shares at the upper price limit [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Biren Technology has shown explosive revenue growth, with revenues of RMB 0.499 million in 2022, RMB 62.03 million in 2023, and projected RMB 336.8 million in 2024 [10][11]. - Despite revenue growth, the company has faced significant losses, with net losses of RMB 14.74 billion in 2022, RMB 17.44 billion in 2023, and RMB 15.38 billion in 2024 [10][11]. - The company has accumulated a backlog of orders valued at approximately RMB 821.8 million and has signed framework agreements worth RMB 1.24 billion, indicating potential future revenue [6][9]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The smart computing chip market presents both opportunities and challenges, with expectations for market share growth from 20% in 2024 to 60% by 2029 [14]. - The market is highly concentrated, with the top two players expected to hold 94.4% of the market share by 2024, leaving limited space for other competitors [14]. - Biren Technology's core business focuses on developing general-purpose graphics processing unit (GPGPU) chips and AI computing solutions, integrating proprietary hardware and software [6][12]. Group 4: Investment and Future Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will primarily be used to enhance core competitiveness, focusing on the development of next-generation chips like BR20X and BR30X [6][12]. - The company has received substantial backing from notable investors, raising over RMB 9 billion since its inception, with plans to initially list on the A-share Sci-Tech Innovation Board before opting for the Hong Kong market [15]