上周美股三大指数走势分化，尾盘跳水将衡量市场波动性的恐慌指数推高近20%。 甲骨文与博通的季度业绩凸显出人工智能领域资本支出的庞大规模和业绩压力，这一因素抵消了美联储 货币政策释放的鸽派信号带来的利好。与此同时，美国国债收益率上扬也打压了市场情绪。 4.192%。 市场当前对美联储降息的预期略有降温。利率市场定价显示，市场预计美联储2026年首次降息最早发生 在4月（概率约为81%），到6月时降息概率理论上达到100%。届时新任美联储主席将正式上任，而特 朗普提名的人选预计会偏向鸽派。不过值得注意的是，与联邦公开市场委员会的谨慎不同，市场目前的 概率预期仍指向2026年将累计降息两次。 未来一周，投资者将继续权衡美联储降息前景，而对人工智能领域过度投资的担忧能否化解，也将成为 影响短期市场走向的关键因素。 美联储未来降息预期降温 上周市场需消化的经济数据相对有限。全美独立企业联盟（NFIB）小企业乐观指数11月上升0.8点至 99.0，略高于市场预期。分项指标中，计划上调平均售价的小企业主净占比上升13个百分点，达到 34%，创下2023年3月以来的最高水平。不过，预期企业经营状况将改善的小企业主净占比下降5 ...

Core Insights - The average age of the labor force in China is 39.66 years as of 2023, with Inner Mongolia now having the oldest labor force, surpassing the traditionally older Northeast provinces [2] - The demographic changes in Northeast China are influenced by local population structures and migration patterns, which are affected by industrial structures, policies, and government support [2] Group 1: Demographic Changes - Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, and Sichuan are the five provinces with the oldest labor force, while Hainan, Tibet, Guangdong, Guizhou, and Xinjiang have the youngest [2] - Liaoning has experienced a net population increase of 86,000 in 2023, reversing a trend of net outflow since 2012, attributed to attractive talent policies and improved business environments [3] - Jilin's permanent population decreased by 153,700 in 2023, but the decline rate has slowed compared to previous years, with over 102,000 college graduates retained in Changchun [3] Group 2: Aging and Economic Factors - Northeast China is seen as a "forerunner" in aging due to early economic transitions and low birth rates, while Inner Mongolia's aging process has accelerated due to economic pressures and youth outflow [4] - Inner Mongolia's birth rate has been declining since 2017, with a rate of 5.00‰ in 2023, leading to a negative natural growth rate of -2.84‰ in 2024 [4] - The region's reliance on traditional industries like coal and rare earths has diminished job opportunities, pushing young workers to migrate to more developed eastern coastal areas for better employment prospects [4]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "hollow villages" in Wuhan is characterized by significant population outflow, leading to an aging demographic and economic decline in rural areas, with over 60% of rural residents migrating to urban centers [3][4]. Group 1: Population Migration - Wuhan's rural population is projected to reach 2.0714 million by the end of 2024, with 985,000 people having migrated for employment, representing 47.6% of the rural labor force [3]. - The village of Wuxingkou has a permanent population of less than 200, with over 85% being elderly, indicating a lack of young residents aged 7 to 60 [3]. - The trend of labor migration is expected to continue, with predictions of ongoing population loss in hollow villages over the next decade, primarily due to declining birth rates [4]. Group 2: Economic and Agricultural Challenges - The long-term vacancy rate of rural housing in Wuhan is estimated to be between 15% and 18%, with some areas experiencing rates as high as 30% to 35% due to labor outflow [5]. - The economic activities in hollow villages are severely limited, with many agricultural tasks being performed by elderly residents, resulting in low annual incomes and insufficient funds for basic community services [6]. - The lack of young laborers has hindered modern agricultural development, with some villages generating annual revenues of less than 200,000 yuan [6]. Group 3: Positive Trends and Opportunities - Some hollow villages are leveraging historical architecture to boost cultural and creative industries, while others are adopting high-value agricultural practices to create unique local products [2]. - The establishment of cooperative models in certain villages has led to more efficient land use and improved economic outcomes, such as the formation of a cooperative in Xinbang Village that has significantly increased its agricultural output [6][8]. - The transformation of some villages into tourist attractions has shown potential for economic revitalization, as seen in the case of Jinxiu Village, which has successfully attracted visitors and generated substantial revenue [9]. Group 4: Land Use and Development Constraints - Insufficient construction land is a significant barrier to rural industrial upgrading, with many planned developments being halted due to land use regulations [10][12]. - The fragmentation of available land for industrial use complicates the development of new projects, limiting the potential for economic growth in hollow villages [12]. - Recommendations have been made for better management of rural land resources to enhance efficiency and support the revitalization of rural economies [12].

本周（12月8日至12日）A股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指跌0.34%，深成指涨0.84%，创业板指涨2.74%。 | | HEBESM | | 12.8-12.12 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 周五涨跌幅 | 周五收盘点数 | 周五成交额(亿元) | 近一周涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 上证指数 | 0.41% | 3889 | 9100 | -0.34% | 16.04% | | 深证成指 | 0.84% | 13258 | 11823 | 0.84% | 27.31% | | 北证50 | 0.31% | 1448 | 269 | 2.79% | 39.49% | | 科创50 | 1.74% | 1349 | 839 | 1.72% | 36.40% | | 创业板指 | 0.97% | 3194 | 5602 | 2.74% | 49.16% | | 上证50 | 0.59% | 2995 | 1373 | -0.25% | 11.54% | | 沪深300 | 0.63% | 4581 | 5239 | -0.08% | 16.4 ...

Group 1 - Kweichow Moutai has implemented a new control policy after its wholesale price fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, aiming to stabilize prices and support distributors [2] - The short-term measures include stopping the issuance of all Moutai products to distributors until January 1, 2026, to alleviate financial pressure during the year-end period [2] - The long-term structural reform plans involve a significant reduction in non-standard product quotas, including a 30% cut for 15-year quotas and 50% for zodiac Moutai, to reduce supply and improve distributor profitability [2] Group 2 - The wholesale price of 53-degree Flying Moutai rose by 20 yuan to 1500 yuan per bottle, with retail prices reaching approximately 1530 yuan, reflecting a daily increase of about 50 yuan [3] - The previous price drop was attributed to panic among distributors and a "buy high, sell low" mentality, while the current price increase's sustainability remains uncertain [3]

Core Insights - Yushu Robotics has launched a humanoid robot App Store, allowing users to upload and share trained models for dance, martial arts, and other tasks [1] - The platform includes data collected from real robots, enabling users to upload their own datasets or download others' for algorithm training and optimization [1] Company Developments - The introduction of the App Store signifies a strategic move by Yushu Robotics to enhance user engagement and expand its ecosystem [1] - By facilitating the sharing of models and datasets, the company aims to foster innovation and collaboration among developers [1] Industry Trends - The launch reflects a growing trend in the robotics industry towards community-driven development and open-source collaboration [1] - The ability to share and utilize diverse datasets is expected to accelerate advancements in robotic algorithms and applications [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan for 2025, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate economic growth [1][3]. Economic Performance - Major economic indicators in China are showing better-than-expected results, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5%, making China the largest engine of global economic growth [2]. - The economy has demonstrated resilience and vitality, with stable employment, rapid growth in foreign trade, and significant advancements in modern industrial systems [2]. Economic Projections - The GDP is expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year, marking a significant milestone in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - International institutions, including the IMF and Goldman Sachs, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China for the next two years [3]. Policy Implementation - In 2024, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, aiming to synergize existing and new policies to promote stable economic growth [4]. Risk Mitigation - Positive progress has been made in mitigating risks in key areas, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [5]. Economic Work Guidelines - The central economic work meeting outlined five essential principles for economic work under new circumstances, emphasizing the need to explore economic potential, combine policy support with reform, and ensure effective management [6][7][8]. Income and Economic Growth - In 2026, efforts will focus on synchronizing income growth with economic growth, maintaining stability in employment and prices, and implementing proactive fiscal policies [9]. Trade and Openness - China aims to expand both exports and imports, promoting sustainable foreign trade and enhancing service sector openness [10]. Innovation and Technology - The focus will be on innovation-driven growth, with plans to expand international science and technology innovation centers to foster original innovation [11]. Consumer Market Development - Policies will be optimized to stimulate consumption, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services and improving the inbound consumption environment [12]. Corporate Debt Management - Measures will be taken to address corporate debt issues and ensure a healthy market order through regulatory actions [13]. Education and Employment - There will be an increase in high school enrollment and quality university admissions to adapt to demographic changes and improve employment quality [14]. Green Energy Initiatives - The construction of a new energy system will be accelerated, with a focus on expanding green electricity applications and promoting carbon emission control [15][16].

Group 1 - The company announced plans to use up to 7.5 billion yuan of idle raised funds for cash management, emphasizing that this will not affect the implementation of fundraising projects [2] - The cash management amount is a ceiling and the actual amount will be significantly lower, with the scale of idle funds expected to decrease as projects progress [2] - The company has a clear plan for the use of the raised funds, which includes phased investments in research and technology upgrades over a three-year period [2] Group 2 - The company will continue to increase R&D investment to accelerate product iteration and overcome core technological barriers, ensuring that cash management does not impact the normal development of fundraising projects and main business [3]

2025.12.13 本文字数：2499，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 高雅 封面图 |沙特发展融资大会 十年之间，沙特阿拉伯的经济版图经历了一场重塑。 在"石油王国"的刻板印象之外，沙特非石油部门在实际国内生产总值（GDP）中的占比已从十年前的 45.4%，大幅增长至如今的55.6%。 这十多个百分点的飞跃背后，是2016年启动的"沙特2030愿景"所引领的经济多元化进程。这为沙特带来 了非石油经济增长动力，沙特财政部预计，2025年实际GDP增速将加速至4.4%，其中非石油部门的增 长将达5%。同时，沙特正从过去依赖公共财政支出，转向了撬动和引导私人资本，释放经济潜力。 "从沙特国家发展基金（NDF）的视角来看，成果是显而易见的。许多愿景目标已经实现，我们正在稳 步推进这一进程。"在本周举行的沙特发展融资大会（Momentum）期间，NDF副行长沙里夫（Khalid Shareef）在接受第一财经记者专访时强调，沙特正沿着一条清晰的多元化道路迈进，关键优先事项已 得到明确。 非石油经济成为超预期增长引擎 根据沙特财政部2026财年预算声明，受投资增长与消费水平提升的推动，今年前三季度的沙特非石油经 ...

2025.12.13 本文字数：1409，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 受博通与甲骨文引发的人工智能泡沫担忧情绪影响，叠加部分美联储官员发声反对宽松货币政策、推高 美国国债收益率，美股主要指数周五全线走低。截至收盘，道指跌245.96点，跌幅0.51%，报48458.05 点，纳指跌1.69%，报23195.17点，创两周新低，标普500指数跌1.07%，报6827.41点。 本周，道指累涨1.05%，纳指累跌1.62%，标普500指数累跌0.63%。 【热门股表现】 博通跌11.4%，市值蒸发约2300亿美元。此前该芯片制造商表示，公司第一财季综合毛利率将出现环比 下滑。 甲骨文下跌4.8%，尽管公司否认关于其为人工智能公司 OpenAI打造的数据中心项目延期的报道，其股 价在前一交易日大跌超10%后周五继续下挫。 费城半导体指数跌5.1%，AMD跌4.8%，英伟达跌3.3%，英特尔跌4.3%。今年早些时候曾受益于人工智 能投资热潮的部分个股，在周五同样遭遇重挫。晟碟（SanDisk）暴跌14.6%，CoreWeave、Oklo等高人 气人工智能基础设施企业的股价跌幅均超过5%。 明星科技股 ...