Core Insights - The Biden administration is under pressure to address a cost-of-living crisis affecting millions of Americans, with potential adjustments to grocery tariffs being considered to lower prices [1] - The National Economic Council Chairman Kevin Hassett indicated that discussions are ongoing regarding food tariff adjustments, suggesting more changes may follow [1] - Former President Trump plans to make a significant announcement aimed at stabilizing food prices, including items like coffee and bananas [1] Group 1 - The inflation rate is currently at 3%, which Hassett believes is moving in the right direction, but acknowledges that grocery prices have continued to rise during Trump's presidency [2] - Typical monthly grocery spending for a family increased from approximately $400 when Trump left office to about $512 currently, indicating a significant rise in food costs [2] - Trump's imposition of large tariffs on most trade partners raised the average tariff level in the U.S. to its highest point since World War II [2] Group 2 - The U.S. has granted exemptions from retaliatory tariffs for certain industries like chips, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals, while investigations are ongoing that may lead to future tariffs [2] - Many countries are seeking limited agreements with the U.S. to reduce some of the tariffs imposed by Trump, but the government maintains a baseline tariff of at least 10% on nearly all trade partners [2]

鲍威尔要求美联储监察长办公室启动独立审查。在去年公布的报告中，监管机构指出博斯蒂克违反美联储政策的方式"造成了利用机密信息操作的观 感"，尽管调查未发现其确实实施该行为的证据。 SHMET 网讯：亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）周三宣布，他将在当前五年任期于明年2月底届满时退休，此举避免了围绕其连任 可能引发的内部争议。 三年前，博斯蒂克因披露个人财务交易未严格遵守高级官员监管规定而受到审查。当时他仍获得了理事会的支持。另有两名联储主席于2021年因财务报 表问题接受审查后辞职。 现年59岁的博斯蒂克于2017年上任，成为地区联储银行历史上首位黑人主席。作为研究住房自有率和房地产金融的经济学家，他曾在奥巴马政府担任住 房政策官员，原本有资格继续担任六年地区联储主席直至65岁强制退休年龄。 博斯蒂克选择此时退休的时机颇为微妙——美联储位于华盛顿的七人理事会必须同意全系统12家地区联储主席从明年3月1日起开启新的五年任期。 在2022年长达七页的纠错信中，博斯蒂克解释其报告疏漏源于对需披露交易范围的困惑。这些违规行为被发现不久后，美联储主席鲍威尔刚刚实施了个 人交易规则的全面改革。 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 鲁比奥补充道："我们当然希望这一切发生，也希望冲突能够结束，但我们不能再为了开会而开会。" 今年10月，特朗普在与普京通电话后，曾出人意料地宣布计划举行新一轮峰会，讨论俄乌冲突问题。然 而，那次峰会最终未能举行，原因是俄方降低了对两国领导人将迅速会晤的预期，并继续对乌克兰的攻 击。 早些时候，有媒体报道称在俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫与鲁比奥通话后，美国取消了此次峰会。鲁比奥告诉特 朗普，莫斯科方面没有表现出任何谈判意愿。另一位知情人士称，特朗普"对他们的立场不以为然"。 与此同时，特朗普也已采取行动，通过制裁俄罗斯最大的几家石油公司来施加压力，迫使其停止战斗。 目前，俄罗斯的态度似乎有所软化。周二，拉夫罗夫在接受采访时称，如果美国方面恢复有关俄美元首 会晤的提议并着手峰会准备工作，俄方愿继续同美方就筹备工作开展讨论。另外，拉夫罗夫表示，俄方 愿就特朗普关于俄罗斯已恢复核试验的疑虑进行沟通。 据塔斯社报道，当地时间11月12日，俄罗斯驻土耳其临时代办阿列克谢·伊万诺夫（Alexey Ivanov）宣 称，莫斯科仍"准备好与乌克兰方面恢复直接谈判"。"俄方已多次强调，我们愿意继续与乌 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a bill to end the government shutdown on November 13 at 8:00 AM Beijing time [14] - The White House indicated that the non-farm payroll and inflation data for October may never be released [14] - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic unexpectedly announced his retirement, reaffirming a hawkish stance shortly after [14] Group 2 - The OPEC report suggests that global oil supply will balance with demand by 2026, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [3] - WTI crude oil fell by 4.14% to $58.44 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 3.79% to $62.43 per barrel [3][7] - The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by 0.68%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.26% [3] Group 3 - European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 up by 1.22% and the UK FTSE 100 up by 0.12% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.85%, closing at 26,922.73 points, with a trading volume of 236.39 billion HKD [4] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.36% [5] Group 4 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission reported that foreign investors hold over 3.5 trillion CNY in A-shares [14] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that circulating rumors online are false [14]

Core Viewpoint - Oppenheimer and its team suggest that investors should diversify away from the U.S. market due to high stock valuations limiting upside potential, predicting a 6.5% annualized return for the S&P 500 over the next decade, the weakest among all regions. Emerging markets are expected to be the strongest, with an annualized return of 10.9% [1][5]. Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has significantly lagged behind global peers this year, with a 16% increase compared to a 27% rise in the MSCI global index excluding the U.S. [5] - Oppenheimer's report emphasizes the benefits of diversifying investments towards emerging markets, driven by higher nominal GDP growth and structural reforms, with long-term AI benefits expected to be widespread rather than limited to the U.S. tech sector [5][6]. - Strong earnings growth in China and India is anticipated to drive the rise of emerging markets in the coming years [5]. Group 2 - The annualized return for Asian markets, excluding Japan, is projected at 10.3%, while Japan is expected to yield 8.2% and Europe 7.1% [5]. - Oppenheimer warned last year that U.S. stock valuations were becoming excessive and advocated for a shift towards international markets, predicting that the S&P 500's performance will lag behind most regions by 2025 [5][6]. - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has surged to 23 times, nearing record highs seen before the internet bubble, with current valuations over 50% higher than global peers [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is approaching the time to restart bond purchases as a technical operation to maintain control over short-term interest rates, according to New York Fed President John Williams [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve will stop reducing its balance sheet starting in early December, ending the process known as "quantitative tightening (QT)" [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from a peak of $9 trillion in September 2022 to approximately $6.6 trillion currently [2]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Stability - Williams emphasized that the bond purchases will not impact monetary policy and did not comment on the short-term interest rate outlook [1]. - The Fed is assessing when reserve levels will be deemed "adequate" to ensure effective control over interest rate targets and normal market operations [1]. Group 3: Liquidity Tools - Williams highlighted the successful operation of a new tool called the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), which provides quick cash to eligible banks and serves as a liquidity source [3]. - He encouraged banks to utilize the SRF without concerns about being stigmatized for borrowing from the Fed, indicating its expected continued active use [3].

由于美国石油产量超出预期，而欧佩克自身也加大了供应量，因此欧佩克将其对第三季度全球石油市场的预期从供应短缺转为供应过剩。 欧佩克在最新月度报告中表示，该季度全球石油产量日均超出需求50万桶，而一个月前其预估的是日均短缺40万桶。 该组织位于维也纳的秘书处将三季度非欧佩克+的供应预期上调了89万桶/日，其中超半数增幅来自美国。 这份周三发布的报告还显示，欧佩克+上季度的原油产量超过了其预估的市场需求水平。今年，沙特主导该联盟加快恢复此前暂停的产量，以夺回全球市场 份额。欧佩克+自4月份以来已将其产量目标提高了约290万桶/日，约占全球供应量的2.7%。 周三早些时候，欧佩克秘书处还对国际能源署（IEA）的立场转变表示赞赏。IEA在年度长期报告中承认，石油需求可能在未来数十年内持续增长。 欧佩克表示，近年来一直预测本十年内石油消费将停止增长的IEA，终于"直面现实"。 目前参与供应调整的8个欧佩克+成员国，以及由22个国家组成的完整联盟，将于11月30日举行会议，审议相关产量政策。 本月，该联盟主要成员国首次显现放缓这一策略的迹象，同意在2026年第一季度暂停进一步增产。欧佩克称此举是出于季节性需求放缓，但许多分 ...

Group 1: Employment and Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs estimates that the U.S. will lose approximately 50,000 non-farm jobs in October, marking the largest decline since 2020, with job growth tracking slowing from 85,000 in September to 50,000 [1] - The Dutch International Group suggests that the downward space for U.S. long-term Treasury yields is limited, as the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.1%, which is not particularly high [1] - UBS expects global gold demand to reach its highest level since 2011 this year and next, with significant political or financial market risks potentially pushing gold prices to a target of $4,700 per ounce [1] Group 2: Currency and Political Risks - The Dutch Bank reports that the politicization of U.S. institutions under the Trump administration poses a risk to the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, as the trustworthiness of the U.S. reserve system is in question [2] - The Dutch Bank also highlights that the rise of far-right parties in the UK could negatively impact the pound and the bond market, as these parties may exert similar political pressure on the Bank of England as seen with the Federal Reserve in the U.S. [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in AI and Consumer Markets - CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization in identifying business turning point opportunities for 2026, with a focus on new products, technologies, channels, and markets [6] - CITIC JianTou reports that domestic AI chip manufacturers are entering a high-growth phase, with a focus on cooling, PCB, and power supply sectors, as well as the acceleration of application commercialization by companies like OpenAI [6] - CMB International advises investors to cautiously navigate the domestic automotive sector, anticipating a surge in vehicle sales due to policy adjustments, while remaining aware of potential short-term volatility [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing unprecedented internal divisions regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, primarily debating whether persistent inflation or a weak labor market poses a greater threat [1][2][3] Group 1: Internal Divisions - A significant split among officials has emerged, with 10 out of 19 members anticipating further rate cuts in October and December, while hawkish officials question the necessity of additional cuts [2][3] - The government shutdown has exacerbated these divisions by halting the release of employment and inflation reports, leading officials to rely on private surveys and rumors to support their views [2][3] - The debate over the December meeting's actions is particularly intense, with hawks strongly opposing the expectation of a third rate cut [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Concerns about the labor market's weakness persist, with new job growth declining significantly from an average of 168,000 in 2024 to just 29,000 as of August [5] - Inflation remains a critical issue, with a key inflation indicator at 2.9% in August, above the Fed's 2% target and higher than earlier predictions following tariff increases [3][5] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, has accelerated from 2.4% in June to 3.6% in recent months, raising alarms among hawkish officials [8] Group 3: Key Questions - Officials are divided on whether tariff-driven price increases will be temporary or persistent, with hawks fearing that companies may pass on more costs to consumers in the future [4] - The decline in monthly job growth raises questions about whether it is due to weak demand or reduced labor supply from immigration, impacting the decision on interest rates [5] - There is disagreement on whether current interest rates are still restrictive, with hawks arguing that further cuts could pose risks, while doves believe there is still room to support the labor market without reigniting inflation [5][6] Group 4: Powell's Balancing Act - Fed Chair Powell has attempted to mediate these divisions, advocating for a temporary impact of tariffs and linking labor market weakness to insufficient demand [6][7] - Powell's recent statements indicate that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, reflecting the need to consider diverse viewpoints within the committee [7][9] - The evolving stance of officials, including the shift of Chicago Fed President Goolsbee from a dovish to a more cautious position, illustrates the changing dynamics within the Fed [7][9]

Group 1 - Russia is still "ready to resume direct negotiations" with Ukraine, as stated by the Russian chargé d'affaires in Turkey, Alexey Ivanov, highlighting the lack of face-to-face talks since July 23 [1] - Ivanov emphasized that Russia has made multiple proposals in previous negotiations, including the establishment of three online working groups, but has not received a positive response from Ukraine [1] - The prospect of a meeting between Trump and Putin appears to have shifted, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicating willingness to discuss preparations for a summit if the U.S. resumes proposals for a meeting [1] Group 2 - The planned meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest to discuss the Ukraine situation was canceled last month due to a memorandum from Russia containing tough demands, according to the Financial Times [2] - Lavrov responded to the cancellation, stating that the memorandum was intended to remind the U.S. of the consensus reached during the leaders' meeting in Alaska in August [2] Group 3 - Observers believe Russia's actions are aimed at avoiding further sanctions and pressure while demonstrating flexibility in dialogue with the U.S. [3] - Trump has recently expressed a desire to continue discussions with Putin in Budapest, indicating that the meeting is still under consideration [3] - During a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, Trump stated that both leaders agree the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end soon [3]