Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump confirmed that gold will receive a new tariff exemption, leading market observers to predict a new surge in gold prices [1] - Following the announcement, gold futures reached a historical high, with BNP Paribas Fortis' chief strategist Philippe Gijsels stating that gold prices could exceed $4000 per ounce [1] - UBS forecasts that the spot gold price will rise to $3500 per ounce by the end of the year, representing an increase of approximately 4.5% from current levels [1] Group 2 - Recent disputes over the classification of gold imports indicate potential confusion within the Trump administration regarding tariff declarations and their execution [2] - Despite the clarification on tariff exemptions, the prior confusion may have lasting effects on investor sentiment towards gold [2] - Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh noted that the market had already anticipated the tariff exemption, as evidenced by the narrowing of the EFP (Exchange for Physical) spread between New York futures and London spot prices [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Former President Trump is calling for immediate interest rate cuts and criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for being slow in monetary policy decisions, claiming it has caused "immeasurable damage" [1][5]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Trump labeled Powell as "Too Late" and suggested that the Federal Reserve's management of a construction project cost $3 billion instead of the estimated $50 million for renovations [2][4]. - Trump has indicated he is considering a major lawsuit against Powell related to mismanagement of the Federal Reserve's construction projects [2][4]. - Despite his criticisms, Trump claims the economy is strong enough to have "overcome Powell and the complacent committee" [5]. Group 2: Economic Commentary - Trump argues that tariffs have not led to inflation and that consumers are not bearing the costs, stating that tariffs have brought in trillions of dollars in revenue [6]. - He criticized top Wall Street banks for their pessimistic forecasts regarding the impact of tariffs, specifically targeting Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon [6]. - The recent U.S. CPI report showed mixed results, with overall CPI growth lower than expected, but indicators of potential inflation rising at the fastest annual rate in five months [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Future Actions - Analysts generally believe that the recent inflation increase may not be sufficient to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in the upcoming September meeting [5]. - Trump's recent nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Milan, expressed optimism about future inflation performance [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent employment report, which indicated signs of labor market weakness, has become a significant reason for the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut, aligning with President Trump's desire for lower interest rates to reduce debt costs [2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The July employment report has been interpreted as evidence of economic slowdown, with concerns raised about the labor market's vitality [2]. - Recent comments from policymakers indicate a shift in their assessment of economic risks due to the slowdown in employment growth observed in May, June, and July [3]. - The probability of a rate cut during the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is perceived to be over 85%, contingent on forthcoming economic data [3]. Group 2: Labor Statistics Bureau (BLS) and Data Integrity - The appointment of E.J. Antoni as the new BLS director has raised concerns regarding the credibility of data that influences interest rates and stock prices [4]. - Despite recent criticisms of the BLS, the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach and has mechanisms to cross-verify data from various sources [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve utilizes alternative data sources, including private data and surveys, to assess economic conditions, ensuring a comprehensive understanding beyond BLS data [6][7]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Data Collection and Analysis - The Federal Reserve has its own channels for data collection, including surveys of corporate executives and informal interviews, which contribute to its economic assessments [7]. - The Minneapolis Fed President emphasized that any attempts to manipulate BLS data would ultimately be ineffective, as real economic conditions will be felt by the public [7].

美国7月CPI年率与上月 期的2.8%;环比上涨0. 类指数上涨0.2%,是带 因素之一，机票价格创: 医疗和娱乐价格也有所_ | 02 核心CPI年率 | 03 核心C | | --- | --- | | 公布值 | 公布值 | | 5.1% ▲ 高于预期 | ■ 符合预其 | | 核心 CPI年率进一步走 高至 | 核心CPI月 率 | | 3.1%，为五个月高位,高于预期一 | 来首次未能イ | | 的3.0%。分析师认为这并非一 | 较大的包括[ | | 个好兆头。 | 乐、家居用語 | | | 数据公布后,交易员加 | | CPI较上月持平 | 的押注,预计9月美联 | 1 477 1- 市场坚持押注 美联储9月降息 2 0 2 5 08-12 美国7月CF 看CPI, 到 ( ) 金十数据 | 2025-08-12制图 01) 美国7月未季调CPI年率 公布值 ▼ 低于预期 2.7% 可能性超过80%。 但比 鉴于核心CPI同比上涨 能低于预期中值,这是 味着未来几个月CPI将组 Q JIN10.COM 看CPI，到金十，立即下载金十数据APP>> ...

北京时间周二20:30，美国7月未季调核心CPI年率进一步走高至3.1%，为五个月高位，高于市场预期的3.0%。核心CPI月率进一步升至0.3%，为1月以来高 位，符合市场预期，高于前值的0.20%。 Anstey指出，视频和音频产品是另一个受到关税影响密切关注的类别。月度涨幅为0.8%，与家具价格一样，是5月份以来的最小涨幅。按年计算，增幅为 0.4%，听起来不多，但却是自2021年以来的最大增幅。 分析师Jersey对7月美国CPI报告的初步看法是，国债市场似乎担心CPI会走高，但整体CPI的月度数据表明，在9月会议之前收到的PCE数据可能足够接近2% 的目标，从而允许美联储在9月放松货币政策。Jersey说："我们仍然认为，市场有望进一步走高。" 持续更新中…… 美国短期利率期货下跌，交易员加大美联储9月降息的押注，继续押注美联储将12月降息。 分析师Anstey表示，6个月来首次出现月度核心CPI读数未能低于预期中值。问题是，这是否是一个拐点，未来几个月通胀将开始高于预期；7月核心CPI略高 于预期，美联储主席鲍威尔一直在说，政策制定者关注的是12个月的通胀。所以，这并不是一个好兆头。 整体CPI年率 ...

美国劳工统计局今日公布数据显示，经季节性调整，7月份全美城市居民消费者价格指数（CPI-U）环 比上涨0.2%，此前6月环比上涨0.3%。未经过季调的数据显示，过去12个月CPI总指数上涨2.7%。 分项来看，7月居住类指数上涨0.2%，是带动本月CPI上涨的主要因素。食品类指数当月持平，其中外 出就餐价格上涨0.3%，而家庭食品价格下降0.1%。能源类指数则下跌1.1%，汽油价格环比下降2.2%。 剔除食品与能源后的核心CPI 7月环比上涨0.3%，高于6月的0.2%。涨幅较大的项目包括医疗保健、机 票、娱乐、家居用品与运营、二手车与卡车；而住宿类和通信类指数则出现下跌。 过去12个月，总体CPI上涨2.7%，核心CPI上涨3.1%；能源指数下降1.6%，食品指数上涨2.9%。 食品 7月食品类指数与上月持平，此前两个月均上涨0.3%。家庭食品价格下降0.1%，六大类中有两类上涨、 三类下降、一类持平。乳制品及相关产品上涨0.7%，其中牛奶上涨1.9%；肉类、禽类、鱼类和蛋类整 体上涨0.2%，其中牛肉上涨1.5%，鸡蛋下跌3.9%。 能源 7月能源类指数下降1.1%，此前6月上涨0.9%。汽油价格环比下降 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the July CPI inflation report, with expectations of a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 2.8% year-over-year increase in CPI [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year [1] - Concerns have been raised regarding the credibility of BLS data following the dismissal of its director by Trump, which may undermine market confidence in U.S. government statistics [5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have warned that the upcoming data may be "hotter" than expected, with Goldman predicting a 0.27% month-over-month increase in overall CPI and a 0.33% increase in core CPI [6] - Specific contributions to core CPI are expected from new and used car prices, as well as from household and entertainment goods affected by tariffs [6] - The overall tariff rate on U.S. goods is approximately 15%, but the effective tariff rate on recent imports is only between 9% and 10%, indicating that the full impact of tariffs has yet to be felt by consumers [6] Group 3 - Predictions for December CPI suggest a potential rise to 3.0%-3.5% year-over-year, with core CPI possibly reaching 3.5%-4.0% [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut, influenced by recent weak employment data [8] - Market analysts suggest that higher tariffs and their economic impacts remain a significant concern, potentially leading to market adjustments, especially in the third quarter [9]

Group 1 - China Rare Earth Group denies any collaboration regarding the so-called "Rare Earth RMB Stablecoin," stating that the information is fabricated and misleading [1] - Ethereum's price has increased approximately 29% in 2025, surpassing Bitcoin's 28% increase, with recent prices reaching $4311.58, the highest in eight months [2][3] - Institutional demand for Ethereum has surged, with significant inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs, totaling around $50 billion in net inflows last month [2][3] Group 2 - Truth Social has submitted a revised S-1 registration statement for its Bitcoin spot ETF to the SEC, but details on management fees and trading codes remain undisclosed [2] - Stripe is collaborating with Paradigm to develop a Layer 1 blockchain named "Tempo," focusing on payment solutions and compatible with Ethereum programming languages [3] - Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos's aerospace company, has partnered with Shift4 to accept cryptocurrency payments for space travel, including Bitcoin and Ethereum [4] Group 3 - Chainlink has partnered with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to integrate global forex and precious metals pricing data into Chainlink Data Streams, enhancing data accuracy for blockchain applications [4] - CryptoQuant indicates Ethereum's short-term support range is between $3980 and $4020, with resistance between $4450 and $4550, amid high market leverage [5] - Singapore Exchange is considering launching cryptocurrency perpetual futures contracts by the end of the year, targeting institutional demand [6] Group 4 - BitMine Immersion Technologies has attracted $259 million from South Korean retail investors since July, becoming a popular overseas stock due to its significant Ethereum holdings [6] - CME's Ethereum futures trading volume reached a record high of $118 billion in July, marking an 82% month-over-month increase [6] - CoinShares reports a total inflow of $572 million into digital asset investment products last week, with Ethereum ETP leading the market [7] Group 5 - MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, has seen its stock price increase by over 2600% since it began purchasing Bitcoin in 2020, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin [8]

宏观对冲基金和商品交易顾问（CTA）对冲基金似乎也已平仓美元空头。他们的收益对美元表现的敏感度曾跌至三年多来的最低 （负值），如今已回到中性水平。 当然，投机者和对冲基金或许会开始做多美元——但前提是他们无视美国的财政状况。美国年度赤字已达约2万亿美元，若经济陷 入衰退，占GDP 6%-7%的赤字很容易翻倍至两位数。 彭博社宏观策略师西蒙·怀特（Simon White）认为，美元的主要趋势是长期走弱，因投机性空头头寸已平仓，而随着经济放缓，美 国财政前景将进一步恶化。 美元指数正经历又一次反弹失败。近几周，它第二次尝试从7月初的低点反弹，却再度受阻。就目前而言，这种模式可能持续—— 因为美元的基本面前景将使其持续承压。 做空美元的交易曾一度非常拥挤，以至于出现反弹只是时间问题而非"是否会出现"。根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的持 仓数据，投机者在美元期货中的空头头寸已相当极端。 尽管整体而言美元持仓仍处于净空头状态，但美元兑欧元、英镑等发达市场货币的空头头寸已平仓，目前持仓重回净多头。投机 者对美元兑新兴市场货币的持仓仍维持净空头状态（且空头规模还在扩大），但对于美元指数而言，只有发达市场货币（主要是 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, under Warren Buffett's leadership, is set to reveal a long-held "mystery holding" in its upcoming 13-F report, with speculation that it may involve a significant investment in an industrial company totaling up to $5 billion [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Impact - The anticipated disclosure is expected to provide insights into Berkshire's strategic direction and confidence in the industrial sector, potentially influencing market sentiment and industrial stock prices [1][3]. - The "mystery holding" is likely to be an industrial stock, which could lead to a re-evaluation of valuations in the industrial sector, reflecting Berkshire's positive outlook on manufacturing recovery and supply chain restructuring [3][4]. - Historical precedents show that Berkshire's disclosures often lead to significant stock price increases for the targeted companies, as seen with Chubb's stock rising 8% after a $6.7 billion investment was revealed [3]. Group 2: Financial Sector Adjustments - Berkshire is reportedly reducing its stake in American banks, with a nearly 40% cut expected by the first quarter of 2025, indicating a strategic shift away from financial stocks amid current market conditions [2][3]. - The ongoing reduction in bank holdings may reflect Berkshire's cautious stance towards the financial sector, influenced by concerns over interest rate risks and narrowing bank net interest margins [3][4]. Group 3: Broader Implications for Berkshire - If the $5 billion investment in industrial stocks is confirmed, it would further diversify Berkshire's portfolio, reducing reliance on consumer and financial sectors, and signaling a shift in economic cycle judgment [4]. - The 13-F report serves not only as a disclosure of holdings but also as a lens into Buffett's investment philosophy, potentially reshaping market perceptions of the industrial sector and offering new investment strategies for investors [4].