Group 1 - The core observation is that the five-year U.S. Treasury bonds are currently at a historically high valuation compared to other maturities, a rare occurrence outside of the Federal Reserve setting the overnight loan rate target to 0% [1][4] - As of Wednesday, the five-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 3.78%, which is high since early 2022, indicating a significant valuation anomaly in the bond market [1] - The valuation assessment, using a common relative value calculation method, shows that the five-year Treasury yield is overvalued, with a "butterfly spread" calculation resulting in a near -100 basis points, the lowest since early 2021 [1] Group 2 - The valuation of the five-year Treasury bonds is primarily influenced by market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the market pricing in more short-term cuts and a larger cumulative reduction since the beginning of the year [4] - The five-year Treasury has been the best-performing segment of the U.S. Treasury market this year, while persistent inflation and the trend of the U.S. budget deficit exert upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields [4] - There are indications that investors are betting on significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve during a potential second term for Trump, reflecting a broader expectation of a more accommodative policy path after leadership changes in the Fed next year [4]

根据OpenAI与美国总务管理局（GSA）于周三联合发布的声明，未来一年内，联邦机构可仅以1美元的 象征性价格使用OpenAI的模型。 这项合作是OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）与公司高层数月努力的成果。自2025年1月 特朗普重返白宫以来，OpenAI便积极与新一届政府接触，持续推进与各联邦机构的关系。 奥尔特曼在发给美国《连线》科技杂志的声明中表示： "让AI真正造福全体人民的最佳方式之一，是将它交到为国家服务者手中。我们很荣幸能与 总务管理局携手合作，助力特朗普总统的人工智能行动计划，在联邦政府系统内推广 ChatGPT，支持公务员更好地服务美国人民。" 据《连线》获取的文件显示，自今年5月起，OpenAI多位高管便陆续与GSA及食品药品管理局（FDA） 等机构展开会谈，积极推介公司AI工具。 7月23日，OpenAI首席运营官布拉德·莱特卡普（Brad Lightcap）与其他高层受邀出席了在华盛顿特区举 行的Hill and Valley Forum闭门晚宴。 据外媒获取的邀请函显示，受邀嘉宾还包括多位参与AI政策制定的政府人员，例如政府效率部 （DOGE）成员Akash ...

瑞银集团（UBS Group）旗下部门策略师称，美国劳动力市场疲软，以及美联储理事会和劳工统计局 （Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS）的变动，可能给美元和美债带来下行风险。 瑞银投资银行的策略师周三写道，投资者尚未完全消化上周五一系列事件的影响——这些事件始于一份 显示就业增长放缓的就业报告，最终以美联储理事库格勒辞职收尾。 "这些事态的重要性在于，自春季以来，看空美元的传统宏观因素和风险溢价因素首次同时生效，"瓦西 里·瑟雷布里亚科夫（Vassili Serebriakov）、沙哈布·贾利努斯（Shahab Jalinoos）、阿尔维塞·马里诺 （Alvise Marino）和本杰明·贾勒特（Benjamin Jarrett）写道。 他们表示，就在数据显示美国经济放缓之际，对美国机构所受政治压力及其独立性的担忧正不断加剧。 7月非农就业人数不及预期，且前两月数据被下修，促使市场情绪转向预期美联储将在未来会议中降 息。 芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）的"美联储观察"数据显示，联邦基金期货交易员目前认为，美联 储在9月会议上降息25个基点的可能性为95%，高于一周前的4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has reopened discussions about potential political maneuvering within the Fed, particularly regarding Trump's influence on future appointments and policy direction [1][2]. Group 1: Implications of Resignation - Waller's unexpected departure creates a vacancy that Trump can strategically fill, potentially appointing a "shadow chair" to challenge current Chair Powell before a permanent successor is named [1][2]. - The timing of Waller's resignation complicates the situation, as the new appointee would only serve a few months before needing Senate confirmation for a longer term [2][4]. Group 2: Trump's Strategic Options - Trump has two main options: appoint a temporary replacement for Waller or expedite the selection of a preferred candidate for the Fed chair position [2][6]. - The "shadow chair" option aligns with Trump's management style, which favors competition and performance evaluation among candidates [4][5]. Group 3: Potential Candidates and Market Reactions - Trump has indicated he is considering several candidates for the Fed chair position, including former Governor Kevin Warsh and current Governor Christopher Waller [7][8]. - Concerns have been raised about Trump's push for significant interest rate cuts, which could undermine the Fed's independence and create market uncertainty [5][9].

"但这次不是小干预。美国总统认为自己可以对巴西这样的主权国家指手画脚。这令人无法接受。" 这位巴西总统称，他与特朗普没有个人恩怨，并表示两人可能下月在联合国或11月的联合国气候大会上 会面。但他提到，特朗普有贬低白宫访客的前科，比如南非总统西里尔·拉马福萨（Cyril Ramaphosa） 和乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基（Volodymyr Zelenskiy）。 "特朗普对泽连斯基的所作所为是羞辱。这不正常。他也羞辱了拉马福萨，"卢拉说，"一国总统不能羞 辱另一国总统。我尊重所有人，也要求得到尊重。" 在美国总统特朗普宣布对巴西输美商品的关税升至50%后，巴西总统卢拉（Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva）表 示，目前没有与特朗普直接对话的余地，这样的对话很可能是一种"羞辱"。 他在接受路透社采访时称，巴西不会宣布对等关税，其政府也不会放弃内阁层面的谈判，但他本人并不 急于给白宫打电话。 "哪天我的直觉告诉我特朗普准备好谈了，我会毫不犹豫给他打电话，"卢拉在巴西利亚的总统官邸接受 采访时说，"但现在我的直觉是，他不想谈。我不会让自己受辱。" 尽管巴西出口商品面临特朗普政府施加的最高关税之一， ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普称美俄会谈富有成效 美联储卡什卡利：短期内可能适合降息 特朗普：新任美联储理事可能是临时的 特朗普拟对芯片征收100%关税 美国对印度商品加征的关税税率升至50% 白宫称苹果将在美国追加1000亿美元投资 韩国9月29日起对中国团队游客实行临时免 印媒：莫迪将于8月31日至9月1日访华 市场盘点 周三，受美联储官员讲话提振降息预期的拖累，美元指数走低，最终收跌0.56%，报98.17。美债收益率涨跌不一，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.232%，2 年期美债收益率收报3.72%。 随着投资者在前一交易日金价触及近两周高位后获利了结，现货黄金回落，止步四连涨，盘中跌破3360美元关口，最终收跌0.35%，收报3368.97美元/盎 司，创近两周高位；现货白银基本持平，最终收涨0.05%，报37.809美元/盎司。 由于特朗普称美俄会谈富有成效的言论引发了美国对俄实施新制裁的不确定性，国际原油连续第五个交易日走低。WTI原油失守64美元关口，最终收跌 1.48 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic glass market continues to show weakness, with price adjustments observed in various regions due to supply and demand dynamics, particularly influenced by the real estate sector's ongoing downturn [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the Hebei region, some manufacturers have lowered prices by 1-1.5 yuan per weight box, while in South China, prices decreased by 1 yuan per weight box due to slow sales caused by heavy rain [1] - The current market is transitioning from expectation-driven to a focus on actual supply and demand fundamentals, with supply pressures increasing despite seasonal maintenance leading to some supply contraction [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the national float glass daily production reached 159,600 tons, a slight increase of 180 tons year-on-year, with total production in July at 4.91 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 4.72% and a capacity utilization rate of 79.20% [1] Impact of Real Estate Sector - The persistent downturn in the real estate sector is a key factor suppressing glass demand, with the area of completed constructions declining by 5.0% year-on-year, leading to weak growth in rigid demand for glass [1] - The current real estate situation remains bleak, with downstream processing orders showing only a slight increase, primarily driven by essential needs [1] - The average order days for float glass processing enterprises is only 9.55 days, indicating a continued low operating status [1] Inventory and Supply Chain Issues - Although glass production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.56 million weight boxes to 51.78 million weight boxes last week, significant inventory pressure remains [1] - The completion of a round of stocking in mid to late July is expected to slow down purchasing in August, with processing enterprises showing reduced willingness to accept orders due to compressed profits [1] - The market is constrained by weak spot demand and ineffective inventory transfer to downstream sectors, making it difficult for apparent inventory reductions to translate into substantial price support [1] Cost Support Factors - Rising coal and raw material prices are currently the main supportive factors for market costs, providing a bottom support for prices [1] - While the price of soda ash is steadily rising, its impact on glass production costs is limited [1] - There is a notable profit disparity among glass enterprises based on fuel types, with those using natural gas facing significant losses, while coal gas enterprises enjoy relatively better profits, complicating unified production reduction efforts [1] Market Outlook - Most institutions maintain a cautious outlook for the short-term market, with recommendations to consider low-positioned long positions while being mindful of operational risks [1] - The forecast indicates that the supply increase and weak demand in the float glass market will persist in August, with prominent inventory pressures and limited price upward movement, necessitating vigilance regarding potential price-cutting strategies for inventory clearance [1] - The focus should remain on the speed of inventory digestion and potential policy stimulus until there is a substantial improvement in demand [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian energy, following unsuccessful talks between Washington and Moscow regarding Ukraine [2] - This new tariff will be implemented on top of an existing 25% country-specific tariff and will take effect within 21 days [2] - The announcement led to a decline in the iShares MSCI India ETF and a spike in oil prices, while the Indian Rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar [2] Group 2 - Kremlin stated that the meeting between Putin and U.S. envoy Weitkov resulted in an exchange of "signals," but did not provide detailed information [3] - The discussions lasted nearly three hours and were described as "beneficial and constructive," focusing on the prospects of U.S.-Russia relations [3] - Trump indicated that additional tariffs could be imposed on other countries purchasing energy from Russia, similar to the situation with India [3]

Group 1 - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari indicated that the slowing U.S. economy may make recent interest rate cuts appropriate, with expectations of two cuts by year-end [1] - Kashkari emphasized that tariffs remain a significant uncertainty, and their impact on inflation is still unclear, suggesting that adjustments may be necessary before clarity is achieved [1] - There is growing support among Fed officials for a rate cut in September, with San Francisco Fed President Daly also suggesting that more than two cuts may be needed this year [1] Group 2 - A weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report showed a significant slowdown in hiring activity over the past three months, raising questions about the Fed's "wait-and-see" strategy [2] - Kashkari expressed confidence in the Labor Department's data, stating that economic realities cannot be fabricated [2]

港交所文件显示：汇丰7月31日对 药明康德 (02359.HK)持股比例从4.28%增至5.25%。 ...