国外 1. 花旗：予恒指今年年底目标25000点，呼吁增持中国互联网、科技及消费板块 花旗发表亚股策略报告表示，尽管宏观环境波动，亚洲股市表现仍优于全球同行，美国关税问题使短期 展望不明朗，但花旗股票策略师对中期前景仍持建设性看法，该行料MSCI亚洲(不包括日本)指数至 2026年中将有约7%的回报，此相当预测市盈率14倍，该行在亚股中看好中国及韩国市场，其企业每股 盈测修订趋势较佳、估值合理，且受益于结构性主题(人工智能、公司治理改革)。该行予恒指于今年年 底目标25000点、明年年中目标更达26000点，予沪深300指数于今年年底目标4200点、明年年中目标达 4350点，MSCI中国指数今年年底目标79点、明年年中目标82点。花旗称，MSCI中国行业权重模型投资 组合中，该行将消费板块从中性上调至增持，倾向于国内相关股票并为潜在的政府刺激做准备；将运输 板块从增持下调至中性，因全球货运量在美国贸易关税增加的背景下存在下行风险。该行对中国互联 网、科技及消费板块予增持评级。 2. 美银：预计美联储在明年之前不会降息 4. 惠誉：财政政策是日本信用评级的主要风险 惠誉评级负责日本主权评级的分析师Krisja ...

Arm今年迄今股价已上涨约16%，而法巴银行团队认为，鉴于股价尚未计入ASIC业务潜力，仍存在"显 著的上涨空间"。周三，Arm股价上涨近5%。 Arm(ARM.O)可能很快在定制人工智能芯片市场崭露头角，一些分析师认为，该公司股票尚未充分受益 于这一机遇。 法巴银行分析师在周三的一份报告中，将Arm的评级从"中性"上调至"跑赢大市"，并将目标价从110美 元上调至210美元。分析师指出，随着科技巨头不断增加AI领域的资本开支，Arm顺理成章可能会转型 成为专用集成电路（ASIC）芯片制造商——不过，他们也提到，Arm管理层迄今尚未就ASIC战略作出 任何正式表态。 这家总部位于伦敦的公司目前通过授权出售芯片设计，但并不直接销售自有芯片。分析师表示，如果 Arm能在可服务市场中拿下7%的份额，其ASIC业务的息税前利润（EBIT）可能翻倍。他们预计，到 2030年，该市场规模将达到2000亿美元；在这一假设下，Arm的ASIC业务到2030和2031财年可能带来 80亿至150亿美元的营收。 （文章来源：金十数据） 分析师引用近期媒体报道称，愈发多的迹象显示Arm可能开始生产自有ASIC芯片。例如，英国《金融 ...

Group 1: Market Risks and Debt Concerns - Nassim Taleb warns of significant market risks, particularly highlighting the U.S. federal debt, which has more than doubled over the past 25 years to approximately $37 trillion, with an expected increase of at least $3 trillion over the next decade due to Trump's policies [2][3] - The U.S. government is projected to pay $881 billion in interest on its debt in the fiscal year 2024, surpassing expenditures on Medicare and defense [2] - Concerns over U.S. debt and policies, including tariffs, have contributed to a roughly 10% decline in the dollar against a basket of global currencies this year [2] Group 2: Critique of Tariff Policies - Taleb criticizes Trump's tariff policies, stating that they are aggravating trade partners and lack coherence, despite not being fundamentally opposed to tariffs [3] - He emphasizes that the deterioration of trust in the dollar and the U.S. is problematic, especially as rising interest costs make debt a source of vulnerability [3] Group 3: Views on Cryptocurrency - Taleb has been a vocal critic of Bitcoin, labeling it as a "cult" and "a tumor," and reiterates that it is akin to "electronic tulips," referencing the historical tulip bubble [4] - He argues that Bitcoin cannot function as a currency due to its volatility and the unrealistic expectations of its supporters for continuous price increases [4] - Taleb questions the potential for widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies, given that many governments are reluctant to support them for fear of undermining their own currencies [4]

多位分析师正对TACO交易发出严厉警告，称市场正在"梦游"，当心特朗普不讲道理直接"开大"！ 一些市场观察人士警告称，全球投资者可能低估了美国总统特朗普兑现其最新关税威胁的决心。 然而，其他人警告说，这种做法可能会让一些期望协议达成的投资者栽跟头;。 澳大利亚投资咨询公司AscalonVI Capital的创始人兼首席执行官Anthony Esposito表示，我确实相信这些 关税最终将被实施，我不认为欧盟会像特朗普可能希望的那样轻易屈服，这种情况可能会导致全球GDP 增长放缓，而且它发生在一个许多欧盟最大经济体都背负着历史性高位主权债务的时期。; 在其最新的贸易政策更新中，特朗普宣布将从8月1日起对从欧盟和墨西哥进口到美国的商品征收30%的 关税。欧洲市场对此消息反应平淡，泛欧斯托克600指数在周一（特朗普致信欧盟后的首个交易日）收 盘时仅下跌0.06%。周二则出现了稍深的抛售，该指数下跌0.4%，但市场情绪主要是受美国通胀上升后 对经济增长担忧的抑制。 与今年早些时候所谓的解放日;声明后立即出现的暴跌相比，本周的市场走势标志着市场情绪的鲜明对 比——尽管即将到来的欧盟关税税率甚至高于4月份制定的税率，但市 ...

作为回应，伊朗袭击了美国在卡塔尔的一处基地。"伊朗袭击的基地是美国在地区极其敏感的基地，我 们有能力对美国及其他国家造成更沉重的打击，"哈梅内伊说。 哈梅内伊在一份声明中写道："侵略者的计划是通过攻击伊朗的某些人物和敏感中心来削弱这个政 权。"他称以色列的行动意在煽动"动乱，让人们走上街头推翻政权"。 以色列宣称，对伊朗的全面袭击是在美国总统特朗普为核协议设定60天最后通牒到期后一天后开始的， 目标是伊朗的高级军事领导人、核科学家、铀浓缩基地和弹道导弹计划，这是防止伊朗实现其公开宣布 的摧毁犹太国家的计划所必需的。 伊朗政治领导人并未受到袭击，以色列国防部长卡茨（Israel Katz）声称，这场战争的"目标不是政权更 迭"。 伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）周三表示，伊朗已做好应对任何新一 轮军事打击的准备，且可能给予对手比在与以色列的12天战争中更沉重的打击。 "我国人民已准备好直面美国及其栓绳的狗（its dog on a leash）——犹太复国主义政权（以色列）的力 量，这一点值得高度赞扬，"哈梅内伊称。 上月，美国对伊朗的核设施和军事设施发动了打 ...

周四，台积电(TSM.N)公布截至2025年6月30日的第二季度合并财报，净利润同比大增60.7%，超出市场 预期并创下历史新高，主要得益于人工智能应用领域对半导体需求的激增。 财报数据显示，该公司二季度营收新台币9,337.9亿元，净利润新台币3,982.7亿元，摊薄后每股收益为新 台币15.36元（每单位美国存托凭证2.47美元）。 第二季度，3纳米制程出货占晶圆总收入的24%；5纳米占36%；7纳米占14%。先进制程（定义为7纳米 及更先进制程）合计占晶圆总收入的74%。 台积电的股票近期受到市场关注，投资者对其前景充满信心。期权交易员押注其股价将继续上涨，对冲 下跌风险的成本降至1月以来的最低水平。这一乐观情绪主要源于市场对二季度财报的预期。分析师此 前预计，台积电周四发布的详细财报将上调全年指引，并暗示进一步提高产品价格。 与去年同期相比，第二季度营收增长38.6%，净利润及摊薄后每股收益均增长60.7%。与2025年第一季 度相比，第二季度营收增长11.3%，净利润增长10.2%。上述数据均依照TIFRS编制，属合并财务数据。 以美元计，第二季度营收达300.7亿美元，同比增长44.4%，环比增长 ...

Group 1 - Major U.S. banks, including Bank of America and Citigroup, are planning to launch stablecoins as the U.S. seeks to adopt more supportive cryptocurrency regulations [2][3] - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan indicated that the bank is working on stablecoin development, although specific timelines were not disclosed [2] - The demand for stablecoins is currently low, and the bank is assessing customer needs before launching [2] Group 2 - President Trump has pledged to become the "crypto president," promoting mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. Congress is expected to advance a series of favorable bills for the crypto industry, including a regulatory framework for stablecoins [3] - A bipartisan-supported stablecoin bill has passed the Senate and is awaiting a vote in the House, which could lead to Trump's approval [3] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's CFO Sharon Yeshaya stated that the bank is closely monitoring the development of stablecoins and their potential uses for clients [4] - Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser expressed interest in issuing a stablecoin to enhance digital payments [4][5] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, despite skepticism towards Bitcoin, confirmed the bank's participation in the stablecoin business [5]

Group 1 - The Republican conservatives ended a two-day blockade on cryptocurrency legislation, paving the way for a vote on a series of bills supported by Trump [1] - The House passed the procedural steps needed to advance the cryptocurrency legislation with a vote of 217 in favor and 212 against, including a stablecoin bill previously passed by the Senate [1] - House Speaker Mike Johnson indicated that a bill prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) would be included in the defense authorization bill later this year to persuade opponents to advance the stablecoin bill [1] Group 2 - A vote on the Senate-passed stablecoin bill, known as the GENIUS Act, is expected on Thursday, which sets regulatory rules for dollar-backed stablecoins [2] - The passage of the GENIUS Act in the House would mark the first major cryptocurrency legislation passed by Congress, representing a significant lobbying victory for the cryptocurrency industry [2] - The vote on the CLARITY Act, which will clarify whether assets are regulated by the SEC or the CFTC, may be delayed until next week [2]

今年早些时候，一位前美联储经济学家发布了一份关于该央行总部翻新成本飙升的报告，当时鲜有人关 注。数月后，这份不起眼的报告竟成了特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压的核心武器——甚至可能成为解 雇他的理由。 特朗普可能没有法律权力因鲍威尔不降息而解雇他，但他的顾问们正抓住这个25亿美元的建筑项目大做 文章：将其塑造成政府浪费的具体案例，以此削弱鲍威尔履职所需的公众信任。 周三，特朗普称"极不可能"解雇鲍威尔，"除非他因欺诈不得不离职"。 白宫揪住美联储总部翻新项目的成本超支和大理石装修不放，并非因为对其建筑或预算有法律管辖权， 而是希望借此削弱公众对鲍威尔的信任、构建合法解雇他的理由，或两者兼具。 特朗普在第一任期和今年春天都曾提出解雇鲍威尔的想法，但两次都因顾问提醒"可能在法庭和金融市 场栽跟头"而放弃。 这促使一群特朗普的支持者将攻击矛头对准这个已进行多年的建筑项目，把它当作羞辱鲍威尔（希望他 主动辞职）或尝试让法院认可解雇行为的"武器"。 美联储相关法律规定，只有凭借"正当理由"（如渎职或失职）才能解雇政策制定者。法律专家质疑特朗 普政府是否有足够依据让法院批准解雇鲍威尔，并认为真正的策略可能是通过足够的政治打击 ...

Group 1: Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives successfully passed a key procedural vote for multiple cryptocurrency-related bills, marking a significant victory for the digital asset industry, aided by Trump's intervention [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission extended the time for visiting professionals to provide virtual asset services from 30 days to 45 days, facilitating more flexible operations in the region [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - Despite a favorable market environment, cryptocurrency spot trading volume fell by 22% in Q2 2025, from $4.6 trillion in Q1 to $3.6 trillion, primarily due to decreased altcoin trading activity and liquidity [2] - The total trading volume for cryptocurrency derivatives in Q2 was $20.2 trillion, only slightly down by 3.6%, indicating resilience in this segment amid broader market adjustments [2] - Bitcoin's price momentum has paused after breaking $120,000, with a potential local bottom at $114,000, suggesting that a pullback to around $110,000 could solidify the current bullish trend [3] Group 3: Innovations and Initiatives - French lawmakers proposed a pilot program to use surplus nuclear power for Bitcoin mining, potentially generating annual revenues of $100 million to $150 million, while also addressing maintenance costs and energy waste [4] - Citigroup is exploring the issuance of a stablecoin for cross-border payments, joining other major banks in considering stablecoin projects [8] - Bank of America is preparing to launch a stablecoin, awaiting legal clarity, indicating a cautious approach to entering the cryptocurrency space [9] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment - ARK Invest sold $8.7 million worth of Bitcoin ETF shares, possibly to capitalize on recent market momentum and reduce risk exposure ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release [10] - The founder of LD Capital expressed a cautious stance in the current market, opting to wait for clearer conditions before making further moves, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on the crypto market [12] - Momentum 6's partner indicated that altcoins may experience a strong rally in the next 1 to 2 months, with Bitcoin potentially targeting $150,000, suggesting a favorable environment for market rotation [13] Group 5: Regulatory Concerns - UK lawmakers are calling for a ban on cryptocurrency political donations due to concerns over traceability and potential foreign interference, highlighting the need for updated legislation [6]