Group 1 - The January non-farm employment report, delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, is expected to reveal a moderate slowdown in job growth, with an anticipated addition of approximately 70,000 jobs, slightly above December's 50,000 [1] - The core characteristic of the current U.S. labor market is a structural balance of "low hiring, low layoffs," indicating that while there are no large-scale layoffs, the pace of job creation has significantly slowed [6] - The upcoming report will include an annual benchmark revision, which could potentially revise employment data down by as much as 910,000, marking a historical record, although some analysts expect the final adjustment to be around 720,000 [7] Group 2 - Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve regarding the interpretation of revised employment data have emerged, with some officials suggesting that job growth may have been overestimated, while others argue that the economy remains resilient enough to maintain current interest rates [8] - The labor market is experiencing a return to normalcy rather than a sudden collapse in demand, driven by demographic changes and labor supply constraints, rather than a drastic drop in demand [9] - The healthcare sector remains one of the few areas still expanding, but its sustainability will be crucial for assessing the stability of employment structures [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the allocation ratio of foreign buyers in U.S. Treasury auctions has been increasing, alleviating concerns about the loss of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries and the impact of large fiscal deficits on foreign investments [1][4] - According to TD Securities' analysis, in January, the allocation ratio for foreign and international accounts in Treasury auctions reached approximately 19%, marking a three-year high. This ratio had previously peaked at nearly 25% in early 2022 but declined to below 10% by November 2024 [1][4] - The report indicates that the increase in foreign account allocations is broad-based, suggesting that the narrative of a "sell America" trend may be more of a market story than reality [4] Group 2 - Despite a significant sell-off of $53 billion in U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors following tariff announcements in April 2025, they subsequently increased their holdings by $354 billion by November of the same year [4] - The participation of foreign investors in Treasury auctions notably increased in November and December, driven by the expansion of the term premium, which is the additional yield of 10-year Treasuries over shorter-term bonds [4][6] - The upcoming auction of $58 billion in three-year Treasuries and the issuance of 10-year and 30-year bonds may further influence foreign investment behavior, as a lack of alternative assets could compel investors to continue holding U.S. dollar assets [7]

由亚瑟・布达赫扬（Arthur Budaghyan）牵头的BCA团队认为，日元套利交易正面临与2008年、2015年和2020年类似的崩盘风险。在过去这些时刻，全球风 险情绪突然恶化引发了紧急去杠杆，投资者蜂拥买入日元。 BCA分析师建议中长期投资者做多日元兑美元。 这是日元从历史低位反弹以来，市场对该策略发出的最新警告。交易员正在关注日本央行可能在今年晚些时候进行的加息。2026年至今，日元兑美元已上涨 超1%，脱离了可能触发日本官方干预的危险区间。目前日元兑美元在154附近，较上月接近160的水平明显升值。 周二，因美国零售销售数据不佳，日元兑美元汇率连续第二日上涨，单日涨幅达1%。 BCA团队在当日的报告中写道："我们的判断是，下一轮平仓潮将由套利资产下跌、日元反弹两者共同触发。无法预知谁先发生，但它们会相互强化，最终 导致日元套利交易出现剧烈逆转。" 该交易的基本模式是：借入低收益率的日元，用于购买高收益率资产，从而赚取息差收益。但一旦高风险资产暴跌或日元急剧升值，这一交易就会瞬间崩 塌。 BCA研究分析师表示，日元套利交易是一颗定时炸弹，这一在对冲基金中极为流行的策略正面临大规模平仓的风险。 BCA ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 2026年开年，个人投资者照搬全球央行的操作手册大举囤积黄金，以此对冲世界秩序分裂带来的风险。 投资者加大了实物金条和金币的购买力度，但更亮眼的是全球黄金ETF的资金流入——1月流入规模创下月度历史新高，这既推动 了贵金属市场的剧烈波动，也意味着黄金短期内仍可能面临更多抛售压力。 全球黄金投资需求 鲁卡娅表示，ETF资金流"比金条和金币需求波动性更大"，因为配置黄金ETF的投资者倾向于"战术性配置、快速入场"，而购买金 条金币的投资者追求的是"长期价值储藏"。 她指出，正因如此，ETF投资者对价格和当前市场动态更为敏感："如果金价连续几周回调，他们就会卖出黄金"，因此金价上涨越 依赖ETF资金，波动就会越大。 这或许可以解释近期金价的剧烈波动。纽约商品交易所4月交割黄金期货合约在1月29日创下5354.80美元/盎司的历史收盘新高，随 后在1月30日和2月2日的两个交易日暴跌约13%，一度跌破关键的5000美元关口，目前已收复大部分失地，周二报5031美元，下跌 1%。 鲁卡娅表示，即便金价再度回调并引发资金平仓（尤其是亚洲投资者），长期来看全球投资需 ...

Group 1 - The volatility in the silver market is beginning to ease, with prices consolidating above $80 per ounce, supported by strong fundamental factors despite being below last month's historical highs [1] - The primary support for silver comes from a persistent supply-demand imbalance, expected to last until 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of supply shortages [1] - Investment demand is anticipated to be the main driver for price increases this year, while rising prices are expected to suppress jewelry demand [1] Group 2 - Physical investment in silver is projected to grow by 20%, reaching a three-year high of 227 million ounces, as Western markets are expected to recover in 2026 after three years of decline [2] - Industrial demand is expected to decline by 2%, reaching approximately 650 million ounces, with the solar industry being the most affected due to companies reducing silver usage [2] - Despite the decline in solar-related silver consumption, the overall trend of electrification in the global economy is expected to support broader industrial demand for silver [2] Group 3 - Demand for silver jewelry is expected to decline by over 9% in 2026, reaching 178 million ounces, the lowest level since 2020 [2] - Overall demand is still expected to exceed supply, with global silver supply projected to grow by 1.5% in 2026, reaching a ten-year high of 1.05 billion ounces [3] - The silver market is expected to experience a significant supply shortfall of 67 million ounces in 2026 [3] Group 4 - The annual silver survey compiled by Metals Focus is set to be released in April [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant military buildup by the U.S. in the Middle East, particularly at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, in response to escalating tensions with Iran. The deployment of Patriot missile systems on mobile launchers enhances the U.S. military's ability to quickly respond to potential threats from Iran [2][3]. Military Deployment Changes - Satellite imagery analysis indicates a notable increase in U.S. military aircraft and equipment across the Middle East since January, with specific deployments at various bases [2][3]. - At Al Udeid Air Base, as of February 1, the presence included 1 RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft, 3 C-130 Hercules transport aircraft, 18 KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft, and 7 C-17 transport aircraft, alongside up to 10 Patriot missile systems on mobile launchers [4]. - The Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan showed a deployment of 17 F-15E strike fighters, 8 A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft, and other support aircraft as of February 2, indicating a significant military presence compared to no aircraft reported on January 25 [5]. - Other bases, such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, also reported increases in aircraft numbers, further reflecting the U.S. military's strategic positioning in the region [6].

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国12月零售销售意外停滞 美联储官员淡化降息紧迫性 白宫贸易顾问驳斥就业转差论 美商务部长：美元汇率多年来被人为推高 特朗普：若美伊谈判失败，或向中东再派一支航母打击群 欧委会接受大众中国产纯电汽车价格承诺 中国将加快招投标领域AI推广应用 欧洲主要股指多数收跌，德国DAX30指数收跌0.11%；英国富时100指数收跌0.31%；欧洲斯托克50指数收跌0.2%。 港股延续上一交易日强势，早盘开盘即突破十日线。恒指高开175点报27202点，其后升幅略为回落至109点，此后在资金助推下一度最多拉升370点高见 27397点，大市午后升势减缓逐步回落。截至收盘，恒指收涨0.58%，科指收涨0.62%，恒指大市成交额2340.4亿港元。盘面上，人工智能延续强势持续上 攻，影视、医药外包、生物医药股涨幅居前，纸业、半导体股连涨两日；公路运输、教育、航空、旅游观光、乳制品股走势疲软，互联网医疗股回调。个股 方面，乐欣户外(02720.HK)首日上市收涨超100%，石药集 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are stabilizing above $5,000 as investors assess whether prices have bottomed out after a historic sell-off, despite a 10% decline since the record high in January [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold has experienced a significant drop, with the largest single-day decline since 2013, while silver faced its largest single-day drop on record [2] - Factors supporting the long-term rebound in gold prices include heightened geopolitical risks, continued central bank purchases, and low interest rates [2] - Many banks and asset management firms, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, expect gold prices to recover due to these long-term demand drivers [3] Group 2: Price Predictions - BNP Paribas forecasts that gold prices could rise to $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks [2] - The gold-silver ratio has rebounded, although it remains below the average levels seen in the 1980s [2] Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Central bank purchases continue to support gold's outlook, with Poland announcing an additional purchase of 150 tons last month, and China extending its gold buying streak to 15 months [2] - Gold ETF inflows have remained stable, with a brief decline during a recent pullback, followed by a recovery [2] Group 4: Silver Market Trends - Silver has experienced extreme volatility driven by strong physical demand in Asia, but signs of weakness are emerging in the physical market as supply flows into Europe and Asia [3] - The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday may further suppress domestic demand for silver in China [3]

爱沙尼亚对外情报机构的评估显示，俄罗斯正在利用旨在结束俄乌冲突的谈判作为一种"操纵工具"，目 的是恢复与美国的关系，但其并无意结束冲突。 爱沙尼亚是与俄罗斯接壤的欧盟和北约成员国，其报告指出，即使达成和平协议，莫斯科的军工复合体 仍将对其邻国构成危险。莫斯科仍希望限制北约在其边境沿线的活动——报告称，"俄罗斯极有可能在 继续进行俄乌冲突的同时，为未来的冲突做准备。" 报告称，随着日益严峻的经济前景在统治精英中引发分歧，预计今年俄罗斯的军事生产将停滞。报告指 出，借贷成本上升和投资低迷是推动俄罗斯经济陷入衰退的因素。 报告称，作为俄罗斯政府资金主要来源的石油产量已稳步下降，且不太可能在未来几年反弹。为支付冲 突成本而提高的税收和削减的开支，加上乌克兰无人机深入俄罗斯境内的袭击已经抑制了消费者情绪。 但据该情报机构称，经济全面崩溃的可能性不大。 "俄罗斯正在为其针对乌克兰的冲突设定长期行动目标。这证实了近期和平谈判言论的升温仅仅是一种 拖延时间的策略，"爱沙尼亚对外情报局在周二发布的年度报告中表示。 报告称："统治精英内部在经济政策上的分歧也已加剧，导致关于经济状况和央行货币政策的争论蔓延 到了公共领域。" 爱沙 ...

周二，黄金在连续两日上涨后回落，白银也随之下跌，因投资者在这个波动剧烈且仍在经历历史性暴跌后试图寻找明确方向的市场中获利了结。 现货黄金一度下跌1.4%，随后收窄跌幅，交易价格略高于每盎司5000美元。交易员正关注本周公布的美国数据，以寻找美联储政策方向的线索。尽管金价 自1月29日创下的历史高点已下跌约10%，但今年以来仍稳步上涨。 中国央行在1月份连续第15个月增持黄金，凸显了官方需求的韧性。 此外，1月份，印度投资者涌入黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金甚至超过了股票共同基金。根据印度共同基金协会周二公布的数据，黄金ETF的净流入 量激增至创纪录的2404亿卢比（约合26.5亿美元），略高于股票基金2403亿卢比的流入量。这一里程碑标志着近年来当地投资者对黄金最强烈的背书之一。 在印度，这些全球力量受到该金属深厚文化联系的强化，为资金流入提供了额外支持。 华侨银行策略师Christopher Wong表示："这次清洗是金价恢复逐步上涨趋势所急需的重置。"他说："支撑黄金的结构性驱动因素完好无损。下行势头已经减 弱，金价已开始在较低但仍处于历史高位的水平上企稳。" 展望未来，在美国总统特朗普提名沃什担任美 ...