伊朗总统马苏德・佩泽希齐扬（Masoud Pezeshkian）周三在纪念伊朗伊斯兰革命胜利47周年的活动上公 开承诺，伊朗愿意开放其核设施接受"任何核查"，以证明该国并未寻求制造核武器。眼下美伊谈判正持 续进行，以避免美国采取军事行动。 佩泽希齐扬在仪式上表示："我们已多次声明，伊朗不寻求核武器。我们已准备好接受任何形式的核 查。"不过，目前尚不清楚这一表态是否意味着伊朗将改变现行政策——此前伊朗仅允许对其核设施进 行部分检查。 他发表讲话之际，美国正持续在伊朗附近海域进行海军集结；以色列总理本雅明・内塔尼亚胡 （Benjamin Netanyahu）则与美国总统特朗普举行会晤，游说特朗普向伊朗这个地区最大对手施压，要 求其不仅停止铀浓缩活动，还要放弃最具威力的弹道导弹。 格罗西表示，伊朗此前一直阻止该机构核查人员进入这些地下设施——其中两处曾遭世界最大常规武器 轰炸——直至伊朗能落实"具体措施或协议"。"这些都是为一种根本上的政治立场寻找的理由和借口。" 他说："除了进入遭轰炸或袭击的隧道时可能需要采取的合理物理防护措施外，无需其他额外条件。这 是我们与伊朗持续对话、也是存在分歧的一部分。" 通过阻止核查 ...

Group 1 - Billionaire investor David Einhorn expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more than the market anticipates, increasing his confidence in gold holdings [1] - Despite strong non-farm payroll data in January, market expectations for rate cuts have slightly cooled, with traders still betting on two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, with a probability exceeding 88% [1] - Einhorn believes that using employment data as a reason to avoid rate cuts is "wrong" and predicts more cuts due to Kevin Warsh's influence as a potential Fed chair [1] Group 2 - The core reason for the recent rise in gold prices is that gold is becoming a reserve asset for global central banks [2] - Einhorn highlights the instability of U.S. trade policies, prompting other countries to seek settlement methods outside of the dollar [3] - The combination of current fiscal and monetary policies is deemed "illogical," with other major currencies performing poorly compared to the dollar [3] Group 3 - Following Trump's statement about not worrying about a weak dollar, the dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since April 2025 [4] - Einhorn anticipates significant issues with some major currencies in the coming years [5] - He views betting on more rate cuts as "one of the best trades currently" and holds long positions in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures, essentially betting on continued declines in short-term rates [5]

Core Viewpoint - The CBO forecasts a slight increase in the U.S. budget deficit to $1.853 trillion for FY 2026, indicating a deterioration in fiscal conditions under President Trump's economic policies [1] Group 1: Budget Deficit Projections - The budget deficit for FY 2026 is projected to be approximately 5.8% of GDP, consistent with the 2025 fiscal year deficit of $1.775 trillion [1] - Over the next decade, the average deficit rate is expected to reach 6.1%, rising to 6.7% by FY 2036, significantly above the Treasury Secretary's target of around 3% [1] - The CBO's current deficit forecast for FY 2026 is $100 billion (8%) higher than its January 2025 estimate, with cumulative deficits from 2026 to 2035 increasing by $1.4 trillion (6%) [3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Tax Policies - The CBO's economic growth forecast is notably lower than the Trump administration's, predicting a 2.2% year-over-year GDP growth in Q4 2026, with an average of about 1.8% over the next decade [1] - The anticipated investment tax credits and larger personal tax refunds in 2026 will be offset by larger fiscal deficits and a slowdown in labor force growth due to reduced immigration [2] Group 3: Interest Costs and Debt Levels - Net interest expenditures are projected to more than double from $970 billion in FY 2025 to $2 trillion by FY 2035, driven by rising federal debt [4] - The total public debt is expected to reach $56.152 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120% by 2036, up from 99% in FY 2025 [5] - The aging baby boomer generation is contributing significantly to rising Medicare and Social Security costs, further exacerbating the deficit [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing trend of pre-Spring Festival dividends among listed companies, with a total amount of 348.8 billion yuan, surpassing the previous year's total of 344.6 billion yuan, setting a new record [1] - The financial and consumer sectors continue to dominate dividend distributions, with the banking sector contributing 243.4 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total, and major companies like China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank joining the trend [1] - The willingness of private enterprises to distribute dividends has significantly increased, with a total of 61.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 130%, indicating a broader reach to investors [3] Group 2 - Major companies such as Yangtze Power and Luxshare Precision are showing strong dividend intentions, with Yangtze Power planning to distribute over 5.1 billion yuan, maintaining a high dividend rate due to its stable power generation capabilities [2] - The overall timing of dividend distributions has advanced, with a significant increase in the amount distributed in December 2025, which is 3.7 times that of December 2024, benefiting investors by allowing them to enjoy the time value of money [3] - Regulatory bodies have been promoting improvements in the dividend system, transitioning from "soft constraints" to "hard requirements," which has encouraged companies to prioritize shareholder returns [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Congress has achieved a significant victory against President Trump's tariff policy, opening the door for multiple votes aimed at challenging this key economic policy [1][2]. Group 1: Congressional Actions - The House of Representatives voted 217 to 214 to reject a procedural motion to postpone tariff-related resolutions until August [1]. - A subsequent vote aimed at blocking Trump's tariffs on Canada passed with a larger margin of 219 to 211 [1]. - Six Republican representatives joined nearly all Democrats to pass the joint resolution aimed at terminating Trump's national emergency declaration regarding tariffs on Canada [1][2]. Group 2: Context and Implications - This vote is seen as largely symbolic, as Trump could veto the resolution if it reaches his desk, but it marks the first congressional review of Trump's national emergency declarations in 13 months [2]. - The resolution specifically targets one of Trump's most controversial executive orders, with little evidence supporting the claim that drug inflow from Canada constitutes a public health crisis [2][3]. - A recent report indicated that the majority of illegal fentanyl entering the U.S. is produced in Mexico, not Canada, contradicting the rationale for the tariffs [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - The ongoing congressional battle over tariffs coincides with anticipation of a Supreme Court ruling on whether Trump has the legal authority to impose tariffs unilaterally after declaring a national emergency [4]. - Reports suggest Trump is considering withdrawing from the USMCA, a North American trade agreement, which is set for renegotiation this summer [4]. - Following the House vote, the Senate may also take up the issue, where opposition to Trump's tariffs has bipartisan support [4][5]. Group 4: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The recent votes indicate a rare criticism from Trump's party, which has largely tolerated his unilateral tariff actions until now [5]. - Some Republican representatives have expressed that tariffs negatively impact the economy, burdening consumers, manufacturers, and farmers [5]. - The ongoing discussions around tariffs are expected to become a significant issue in the upcoming midterm elections, with Democrats likely to leverage low public support for tariffs against vulnerable Republican representatives [5].

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国1月非农就业新增13万人，失业率降至4.3% 美联储米兰表达继续留在美联储的意愿 特朗普称同伊朗达成协议将是"首选" 肯尼亚央行加入非洲黄金增持行列 美股三大指数小幅下跌，道指收跌0.1%，标普500指数跌0.01%，纳指跌0.16%。微软(MSFT.O)和谷歌(GOOG.O)均跌2%，英伟达(NVDA.O)和苹果(AAPL.O) 涨幅不足1%，美光科技(MU.O)涨近10%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.65%，金山云(KC.O)涨10%，网易(NTES.O)跌4%。 欧洲主要股指多数收跌，德国DAX30指数收跌0.53%；英国富时100指数收涨1.14 %；欧洲斯托克50指数收跌0.19%。 港股连升两日累涨623点后延续强势，恒指高开63点报27246点，一度倒跌最多49点低见27133点后回稳，在汽车、有色金属及贵金属股带领下大市逐步收复 失地并重展升势。大市午后维持窄幅波动，升势放缓。截至收盘，恒指收涨0.31%，科指收涨0.9%，恒指大市成交额21 ...

知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普私下正在考虑退出北美贸易协定，这给美加墨三国关键的重新谈判增添 了更多不确定性。 据描述内部讨论的匿名人士称，特朗普曾问助手为什么他不应该退出该协议——这是他在第一任期内签 署的——尽管他并未直接通过信号表明他一定会这样做。 一位白宫官员在被问及这些讨论时，称特朗普是最终决策者，且总是为美国人民寻求更好的交易。该官 员表示，在特朗普正式宣布之前，关于潜在行动的讨论都属于毫无根据的猜测。 美国贸易代表格里尔办公室的一位官员表示，照单全收2019年的条款不符合国家利益，政府打算保留特 朗普的选择权，并谈判解决已确定的问题。 两名官员都要求匿名，并拒绝直接回应特朗普是否在考虑退出该贸易协定。格里尔周二表示，政府将与 墨西哥和加拿大分别举行会谈，并指出与加拿大的贸易关系更为紧张。他没有说明特朗普是否会批准延 期。 《美墨加协定》（USMCA）定于7月1日进行强制审查及可能的延期，这一过程曾被视为例行公事，但 现已演变为一场有争议的谈判。特朗普要求加拿大和墨西哥做出额外的贸易让步，并施压他们解决移 民、贩毒和国防等无关问题。 上述官员表示，如果能达成包含行业利益相关者意见的解决方案，格里尔将 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普将于周三在白宫接待内塔尼亚胡，预计这位以色列总理将向他施压，要求扩大美国与伊 朗的谈判范围，将限制德黑兰的导弹武库以及核计划以外的其他安全威胁纳入其中。 这是自特朗普近13个月前重返白宫以来，与内塔尼亚胡进行的第七次会晤。在上周五于阿曼举行的核谈 判之后，内塔尼亚胡将寻求影响美国与伊朗的下一轮讨论，目前的背景是中东紧张局势加剧。 特朗普曾威胁称，如果无法达成协议，将对伊朗实施打击，而德黑兰则发誓要进行报复，这引发了人们 对更广泛地区战争的担忧。特朗普一再表示支持一个安全的以色列，以色列长期以来是美国在中东的亲 密盟友，也是伊朗的死敌。 特朗普在周二的一系列媒体采访中重申了他的警告，称虽然他相信伊朗希望达成协议，但如果他们拒 绝，他将采取"非常强硬的手段"。 特朗普对伊朗核武器和导弹说"不" 特朗普告诉福克斯商业频道，与伊朗达成的一项好协议意味着"没有核武器，没有导弹"，但他没有详细 说明。他在接受采访时表示，作为美国在伊朗附近大规模集结兵力的一部分，他正在考虑派遣第二个航 母打击群。 据知情人士透露，以色列担心美国可能会寻求达成一项狭隘的 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - BNP Paribas predicts gold prices may rise to $6000 per ounce by year-end due to ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, with a rebound in the gold-silver ratio expected [1] - Wells Fargo views recent gold price corrections as healthy, raising their 2026 gold price target to between $6100 and $6300 per ounce, indicating over 20% upside potential driven by geopolitical risks and strong central bank demand [1] - JPMorgan suggests that if private sector demand continues to grow, gold prices could reach approximately $8000 per ounce by the end of the decade, contingent on a significant increase in investment allocation to gold [1] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - The Silver Institute forecasts that the silver market will experience a supply gap for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a projected shortfall of 67 million ounces, driven by physical supply shortages and geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - TD Securities reports that foreign buyers' share of U.S. Treasury auctions has increased, alleviating concerns about the loss of the safe-haven status and the impact of large deficits on buyer interest [3] - The report indicates that the share of foreign and international accounts in January reached about 19%, the highest in three years, suggesting a strong ongoing interest in U.S. Treasuries despite market rumors of a sell-off [3] Group 4: UK Government Bonds - Dutch Bank analysts highlight that political instability in the UK may lead investors to demand a risk premium on UK government bonds, despite a slight decrease in yields following recent political reassurances [4] Group 5: Euro Strength and ECB Response - Deutsche Bank notes that the recent strengthening of the euro is driven by external factors beyond the European Central Bank's control, complicating the ECB's ability to respond effectively [5] Group 6: AI and Media Industry Developments - CITIC Securities emphasizes the potential of ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 video model to revolutionize the film industry, particularly in the AI comic drama sector, which is less susceptible to replacement by large models [6] - The report suggests that the demand for tokens in AI comic production is significant, with each production potentially consuming over 100 million tokens, indicating a strategic opportunity for model companies [6] Group 7: Banking Sector Trends - CICC anticipates a slowdown in the expansion of bank balance sheets, aligning with the central bank's focus on quality and efficiency rather than simple quantitative easing [7] Group 8: Photovoltaic Industry Insights - CITIC Securities predicts an acceleration in the "anti-involution" trend within the photovoltaic battery component industry, driven by rising silver prices and a shift towards high-efficiency products [8] Group 9: Gold Investment Trends - Tianfeng Securities forecasts that gold bar and coin consumption in China will surpass jewelry consumption for the first time in 2025, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [9]

尽管如此，华尔街不少人士仍在防备出现令人不快的意外。近年来，1月通胀数据往往表现偏热。去年1 月，追踪一篮子商品与服务成本的CPI涨幅超过其他任何月份；2023年同样如此。2024年1月虽不是全 年通胀最高的月份，但也十分接近。 SHMET 网讯:美国1月通胀数据将于本周五公布，市场普遍预期，消费者物价指数（CPI）环比温和上涨 0.3%，同比增速将回落至2.5%。 若历史再度重演，这将被视为企业把特朗普加征的关税转嫁给消费者的证据。部分美联储官员已将这一 可能性列为对进一步降息保持谨慎的理由。 不过，通胀超预期也可能是数据统计方式带来的统计假象，这将让1月数据的解读变得格外困难。 年初本就是企业集中提价的时间点：健身房上调会费、流媒体平台提高订阅价格、零售商取消假日折扣 等。 负责编制CPI的美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）会对数据进行季节性调整，以消除每年重复出现的价格 波动模式。换句话说，如果价格总是在1月上涨更多，这一现象本不应体现在经季节性调整后的CPI 中。 但许多经济学家认为，劳工统计局并未完全剔除季节效应，数据中仍存在"剩余季节性"。波士顿联储上 周发布的一项研究显示，自1985年以来，经季节性 ...