数据表明，尽管对负担能力和就业前景的担忧挥之不去，消费者还是利用了这些优惠。虽然预计这些逆 风在未来几个月仍将是许多中低收入家庭最关心的问题，但富裕的美国人继续支撑着整体消费。 这些数据可能还得到了联邦工作人员的额外提振，他们补回了因政府停摆而损失的工资。 美国商务部周三公布的数据显示，未根据通胀调整的零售购买额增长了0.6%，而去年10月份的数据被 下修至下降0.1%。不包括汽车，销售额攀升了0.5%。该报告因政府停摆而推迟了一个月发布。 13个类别中有10个类别录得增长，包括体育用品和兴趣商店，以及建筑材料零售商和服装店。在联邦电 动汽车税收优惠到期导致上月销售受限后，汽车销售出现反弹。加油站销售额的增加也对整体增长做出 了贡献。 假日购物季通常在11月加速升温，零售商不仅在"黑色星期五"当天，而且在之前的几天里也对一系列产 品提供促销和折扣。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 最新的支出数据显示，尽管面临特朗普的全面经济政策和政府停摆等干扰，美国经济在2025年仍展现出 强大的韧性。受汽车购买量反弹和充满韧性的假日购物推动，美国去年11月的零售销售增长超出预期。 根据多项民意调查 ...

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached record highs in 2025, with predictions for further increases in 2026 driven by supply shortages, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over central bank independence [1][4] - The concept of "resource nationalism" is emerging, contributing to the upward trend in precious metal prices, as geopolitical risks escalate [2][3] Price Trends - In 2025, spot gold prices surged approximately 65%, while spot silver prices increased by about 150% [3] - As of early 2026, gold prices have risen over 7%, and silver prices have increased by more than 25% [3] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including the U.S. controlling Venezuela and potential military actions regarding Greenland, are intensifying political risks that support precious metal prices [2] - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the $2.5 billion renovation project has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a supply shortage due to export control measures from China, leading to significant price premiums in the Shanghai market compared to international prices [3] - The demand for silver is driven by its critical role in various industries, including electronics and automotive, indicating substantial potential for price increases [3] Investment Outlook - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver could surpass $100 per ounce in 2026, based on current market dynamics and geopolitical factors [2][3] - The expectation of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is likely to support gold prices, with no immediate factors suggesting a decline in precious metal prices [4]

华尔街向来热衷于创造朗朗上口的英文缩写，以此概括交易逻辑，比如代表科技龙头的FANG（指的是 Facebook、亚马逊、Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet）、描述市场情绪的FOMO（错失恐惧）/YOLO（人 生苦短，及时行乐），还有戏谑关税政策的TACO（特朗普总是临阵退缩）。 如今，奈德・戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）首席美国策略师埃德・克利索尔德（Ed Clissold） 打算创造一个新名词——Big MAC交易，这个缩写对应的是"中期选举大战将至（Big Midterms Are Coming）"。他想用这个概念，概括他眼中2026年美股市场的核心主题：今年秋季国会选举前后的政策 走向及其影响。 Sevens Report创始人汤姆・埃塞耶（Tom Essaye）称，政府政策"乱象"是2026年市场面临的又一风险。 他担忧的是，市场对特朗普近期多次试图改写经济和商业政策的举动反应平淡，这或许释放出一个信 号：市场对政策细节的变动已趋于麻木。 "这是我们未来需要密切关注的风险，因为市场对政策不确定性的漠视，似乎正在助长本届政府的激进 倾向。"他在周一的报告中写道。 埃塞耶补 ...

一个维权组织称，伊朗动荡造成的死亡人数已攀升至近2600人。与此同时，伊朗政府正试图平息这场自 1979年伊斯兰革命以来对其统治构成最大挑战之一的全国性抗议活动。 一位以色列官员表示，根据以色列的评估，特朗普已决定介入，但行动的规模和时机尚不清楚。 这位要求匿名的伊朗官员表示，德黑兰已要求该地区的美国盟友"阻止华盛顿攻击伊朗"。 该官员称，如果美国以伊朗为目标，"德黑兰已告诉从沙特、阿联酋到土耳其的地区国家，这些国家境 内的美军基地将遭到攻击"。该官员还补充说，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐与美国特使威特科夫之间的直接 联系已被暂停，这反映出紧张局势正在加剧。 第二位以色列消息人士（一名政府官员）表示，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的安全内阁在周二晚些时候听取 了关于政权崩溃或美国介入伊朗可能性的简报。以色列视伊朗为死敌，去年曾与其进行了一场为期12天 的战争。 在周二接受哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）新闻采访时，特朗普发誓，如果伊朗处决抗议者，将采取"非常 强硬的行动"。他说："如果他们绞死抗议者，你们将会看到一些事情发生。"周二，他还敦促伊朗人继 续抗议并接管机构，宣称"援助正在路上"，但未透露细节。 美国在该地区部署了军队，包 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国银行美国经济学家阿迪蒂亚・巴夫（Aditya Bhave）表示，"市场基本上无视了这一消息"，当前30 年期美国国债收益率仅上涨约2个基点。美银称，通常而言，这样的收益率波动幅度"不足以体现出市场 对美联储独立性的担忧"。 不过，巴夫也发出警告，此次调查"也可能会激励联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中的鹰派成员"，进 而令外界预期将持更宽松立场的下任美联储主席，更难推动降息政策落地——毕竟该委员会制定政策 时，宣称完全以经济数据为依据。 美国银行在报告中写道，美国最高法院将于1月21日就美联储理事莉萨・库克（Lisa Cook）相关案件举 行听证会，这一事件"对于未来政策走向的重要性，已超过下任美联储主席的人选问题"。 该行补充称，若最高法院作出不利于库克的裁决，"将显著增加鲍威尔同样面临罢免风险的概率"。 此次市场的温和反应，与去年夏季的情景形成了鲜明对比。当时美国总统特朗普暗示可能罢免鲍威尔， 引发了美国银行所形容的"截然不同的市场波动"。 分析师们指出，去年7月11日，30年期美债收益率单日上涨8个基点；7月16日盘中，收益率再度上涨11 个基 ...

这封此前未被报道的四页信件，是在这位央行行长就项目成本超支向参议院银行委员会作证两周半后发 出的。鲍威尔目前正因其去年6月25日关于央行总部改造的证词而接受司法部的刑事调查。 美国总统特朗普和其他高级政府官员，包括管理和预算办公室（OMB）主任拉塞尔·沃特（Russell Vought），指责这位美联储主席在翻新工程的规模和范围上误导了国会。美联储理事会于2017年首次批 准了该项目，工程定于明年完工。 鲍威尔上周日表示，司法部已要求联邦大陪审团向美联储发出传票，这一举措最终可能导致起诉。 负责监督此项刑事调查的华盛顿特区联邦检察官珍妮·皮罗（Jeanine Pirro）表示，她的办公室要求发出 传票，部分原因是为了寻找关于"主席国会证词"中与项目相关的更多信息。她声称其办公室曾在"多个 场合"寻求信息但遭到"无视"。 据知情人士透露，美联储在假期期间收到了华盛顿联邦检察官办公室一名工作人员的两封电子邮件，其 中并未提及刑事调查。鲍威尔发给颇具影响力的参议院银行委员会的信件表明，这位央行行长已就立法 者的问题提供了详尽的回答。 据英国《金融时报》看到的一封信件显示，美联储主席鲍威尔去年7月曾致信参议员，详细说 ...

若"50万吨"这一数据准确无误，那么一个1吉瓦的数据中心，就将消耗全球年铜供应量的1.7%。按照人工智能产业发展的合理预期，未来若新建总容量30吉 瓦的数据中心，仅这一个领域，理论上就将消耗全球近一半的铜矿产量。 这一数据听起来堪称大宗商品市场的终极利好催化剂，铜价也随之屡创历史新高。但现实是，这件事恰恰给市场敲响了警钟。 在大宗商品领域，"结构性牛市逻辑"与"现实物理限制"息息相关，至少在媒体报道与部分过度乐观的分析师眼中是如此。 近日，《福布斯》杂志翻出了英伟达（NVDA）一份去年5月首次发布的技术报告，这份最初源于英伟达技术简报的文件，随后在各类研究报告与人工智能 训练数据集中广泛传播。英伟达在报告中称，传统架构中，单个1兆瓦机架在物理上要求高达200千克的铜母线，单个1吉瓦的机架则可能需要多达50万吨的 铜。显然，现有电力分配技术，难以支撑未来吉瓦级数据中心的大规模建设需求。相关表述目前仍可在其官网查询。 记者们跟风报道的行为尚可理解，但连美国铜业发展协会（The Copper Development Association）也在宣扬这一错误数据，而该机构本该具备专业的行业判 断能力。 对于多年来一直 ...

Group 1 - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled intentions to raise interest rates when conditions allow, despite speculation about an early election by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida [1] - Ueda's comments indicate that financial market fluctuations due to election speculation have not altered the Bank of Japan's path towards rate hikes, maintaining consistency with his previous statements [1] - Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to hold its policy steady during the January 23 meeting, with the next rate hike anticipated around June [1] Group 2 - Currency depreciation has increased import costs, contributing to broader inflationary pressures, complicating Ueda's goal of achieving stable price growth [2] - Ueda noted that wages and inflation may continue to rise gradually, and appropriate adjustments to monetary easing will help achieve price targets and long-term economic growth [2] - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, with expectations of rate hikes approximately every six months, although a weak yen may accelerate the timing of the next action [2]

Group 1 - A new bill has been introduced in the U.S. Senate to prohibit the military occupation or annexation of NATO member territories, including Greenland [1] - The bill is co-sponsored by Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, in response to President Trump's expressed interest in acquiring Greenland [1] - The bipartisan congressional group led by Democratic Representative Bill Keating has also submitted a similar bill in the House [1] Group 2 - Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen stated that the territory prefers to remain part of Denmark, emphasizing their choice of NATO and the European Union [2] - Trump dismissed Nielsen's comments, indicating a lack of awareness about him and suggesting it would be a problem for Nielsen [2] - Danish officials are actively seeking support from U.S. lawmakers to reinforce Denmark's position against any potential U.S. military actions [3] Group 3 - U.S. congressional leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, have attempted to downplay speculation regarding military action against Greenland, asserting that a declaration of war is not being considered [3] - Danish officials have been engaging in diplomatic meetings to garner support from U.S. defense enterprises, which rely heavily on NATO for revenue [4] - The U.S. Constitution grants Congress the exclusive power to declare war, but this power has been gradually diminished over time, allowing presidents to act unilaterally in military matters [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for U.S. military intervention in Iran following the recent military actions in Venezuela, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties involved in such a move, especially in light of the ongoing protests in Iran and the government's violent crackdown on dissent [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Military Actions and Strategies - President Trump is considering imposing a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran and is contemplating "strong measures" if Iran continues to suppress peaceful protests [1]. - Possible military targets include Iranian military infrastructure, command centers, and weapon depots, with speculation that high-ranking Iranian leaders could also be targeted [2]. - Experts warn that military strikes could unify the Iranian government and populace against the U.S., as the Iranian authorities blame protests on "rioters" and "terrorists" allegedly incited by the U.S. and Israel [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges and Risks of Intervention - The complexity of Iran's political landscape poses significant challenges for U.S. military planners, particularly in accurately identifying targets that could lead to a shift in military loyalty [2]. - The U.S. has reduced its military presence in the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean, complicating potential intervention strategies [4]. - Iran has threatened to retaliate against U.S. assets in the region if attacked, while Trump has vowed to respond with unprecedented force, increasing the risk of escalation [4]. Group 3: Diplomatic Considerations - Despite military threats, there are indications that the U.S. government is open to diplomatic solutions, as evidenced by reports of Iranian leaders seeking negotiations [7][8]. - The White House emphasizes that diplomatic measures remain the preferred approach, although military options are still on standby [8][9]. - The unpredictability of Trump's actions creates uncertainty regarding the U.S. response to Iran's internal situation and external pressures [6][7].