Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller voted against the recent interest rate cut, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction instead, arguing that tariffs only cause a one-time price level increase without leading to sustained inflation [1][2]. Economic Data Analysis - Current economic data suggests that monetary policy should be close to neutral rather than restrictive, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year and expectations of continued low growth through 2025 [2][3]. - The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, near the long-term estimate by the committee, and overall inflation, excluding temporary tariff effects, is slightly above the 2% target [2][3]. Labor Market Considerations - Despite a seemingly stable labor market, private sector job growth is nearly stagnant, indicating increased downside risks in the labor market [3]. - The potential for inflation is close to target, and the risks of inflation rising are limited, suggesting that action should not wait for a clear deterioration in the labor market [3]. Policy Recommendations - Waller suggests that if tariffs do not significantly impact inflation, the committee can continue to lower rates at a moderate pace, while also being prepared to pause if inflation or employment exceeds expectations [4]. - There is no justification for maintaining current interest rates, as it poses risks of a sudden downturn in the labor market [4].

周五，焦煤期货价格再次大幅下跌，新主力2601合约下探1062.5点，跌幅9.88%，截至收盘跌幅超7%， 9月合约收跌8.88%于985元/吨，10月、11月合约封跌停板，12月、3月、4月、6月、7月合约盘中触及跌 停。 市场分析认为，这一剧烈波动可能主要源于7月30日重磅会议中关于"反内卷"政策的表述调整，将之前 的"推动落后产能有序退出"改成"推进重点行业产能治理"，市场对政策预期明显降温。 东吴期货表示："日内市场交易月底会议针对反内卷的内容不及预期，盘面情绪回落。焦煤盘面再度逼 近跌停。情绪回落，短期投机需求降温，现货有降价出货。"这一政策预期的转变导致前期涨幅巨大的 焦煤期货面临市场炒作情绪的快速降温，空头力量趁势加压。 光大期货分析指出："随着反内卷预期弱化，市场关注的焦点或将逐步转向供需基本面，目前黑色估值 整体处于中性偏高位置，钢厂利润处于较高水平，终端需求表现偏弱，预计短期黑色商品整体或弱势运 行为主。但是当前焦煤期货价格处于贴水状态，现货价格对盘面能够提供一定支撑。" 金瑞期货则持更为谨慎的态度："根据我们的供需估值框架，我们认为，经过回调，目前黑色系各品种 价格大体定价粗钢需求乐观情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Bowman advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut to counteract economic slowdown and protect the labor market, as inflation approaches target levels [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, despite a significant slowdown in potential economic growth, with the labor market remaining close to full employment [3]. - Inflation is progressing towards the 2% target, particularly after excluding tariff-driven price increases, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation showing a notable decline [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - There are increasing concerns regarding the labor market, with signs of weakening vitality and a significant drop in the employment-population ratio [3][4]. - Non-farm employment continues to grow moderately, but companies are reducing hiring while retaining existing employees, with job growth concentrated in less economically sensitive sectors like healthcare [3]. Policy Recommendations - The company suggests a gradual approach to adjusting interest rates towards neutral levels to maintain close to full employment and achieve dual objectives of price stability and employment [5]. - Delaying action could worsen labor market conditions and further slow economic growth, making early and gradual adjustments preferable [5]. Decision-Making Consistency - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining consistency in monetary policy decisions in response to changing economic conditions, while acknowledging differing views among FOMC members [6].

Sales Performance Summary - GAC Aion reported July sales of 26,557 units [1] - Zhiji Auto achieved a delivery volume of 7,027 units in July [1] - Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries exceeded 30,000 units in July [1] - Avita recorded July sales of 10,062 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 178% [1] - Lantu Auto delivered 12,135 units in July, marking a year-on-year growth of 102% [1] - Zeekr delivered 44,193 units in July 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [1] - NIO delivered 21,017 new vehicles in July, with a year-to-date growth of 25.2% [1] - BYD's new energy vehicle sales reached 344,300 units in July, slightly up from 342,400 units in the same month last year [1] - Hongmeng Zhixing achieved total sales of 47,752 units in July, with 40,753 units from the Wenjie series [1] - Li Auto delivered 30,731 new vehicles in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 40% [1] - Xpeng Motors set a new monthly delivery record with 36,717 smart electric vehicles delivered in July, a year-on-year increase of 229% [1] - Leap Motor reached a historical high in July with total deliveries of 50,129 units, a year-on-year increase of over 126%, marking the first time monthly sales surpassed 50,000 units [1]

周五，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称："杰罗姆'太迟了'鲍威尔是个顽固的蠢货，他必须立即大幅降息。 如果他继续拒绝，理事会应该接管，并采取所有人都知道必须采取的行动！" 白宫并未立即对特朗普的言论发表评论。 特朗普此番言论发表前，美联储官员在周四的会议上维持利率不变，但下调了对美国经济的看法，这表 明决策者可能正逐步接近降息。大多数美联储官员都表示，他们预计会在今年年底前降息。 利率决议由联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）制定，该委员会由鲍威尔担任主席。委员会的投票成员包括 美联储设在华盛顿的七名理事会成员，以及五名地区联储主席。联邦公开市场委员会每年选举一次主席 和副主席。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普再次升级了他与美联储主席鲍威尔之间长期的争执，呼吁美联储理事会在鲍威尔不降低 利率的情况下"接管决策权"。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）周四表示，他预计特朗普能够在今年年底前宣布鲍威尔的 继任者。 他接受CNBC采访时表示："我们正在整理一份非常优秀的候选人名单。我预计我们会在今年年底前公 布人选。" 贝森特还提到了周四决议中的异议，以及明年年初美 ...

Group 1 - European companies are facing the most severe concerns about currency fluctuations in four years, with the strong euro in 2025 eroding profit prospects [1][2] - The frequency of mentions of "currency headwinds" in earnings reports of Stoxx Europe 600 companies has reached the highest level since Q1 2021 [1] - The strong euro is negatively impacting European export companies that primarily generate revenue in USD, reducing their competitiveness in the US market [1][2] Group 2 - Companies like SAP SE and Adidas have cited currency fluctuations as a reason for lower-than-expected revenues, with SAP expecting a 3.5 percentage point reduction in cloud growth due to exchange rate volatility [1][2] - Nokia anticipates a €230 million impact from currency fluctuations, while several Swedish industrial giants warn of profit pressures due to a weaker dollar against the Swedish krona [2] - Many companies were unprepared for the significant strengthening of the euro, as the prevailing view at the beginning of the year was that the Trump presidency would be positive for Europe [2][3] Group 3 - Non-essential consumer goods and healthcare sectors are particularly affected, as a significant portion of their revenue comes from USD, while domestic-focused sectors like banking are better protected [3] - The current situation represents a "double whammy" for export-oriented companies, as they face both unfavorable currency conditions and a less optimistic growth outlook [3] - Analysts suggest that the worst may be over as companies establish more currency hedges and normalize euro and dollar fluctuations [3][4]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's immigration policies are increasingly straining an already weakening labor market, with July non-farm payrolls expected to show only 110,000 new jobs, down from 147,000 in June and below the average of 130,000 for the year [2] - The demand for labor is decreasing due to uncertainty from Trump's tariff policies, particularly affecting industries reliant on foreign labor such as agriculture, construction, and food manufacturing [2][3] - The U.S. labor force decreased by 130,000 in June, with a total decline of 364,000 since the beginning of the year, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, the lowest since December 2022 [2] Group 2 - The number of immigrants detained by ICE has increased from an average of 15,000 per month in 2024 to nearly 40,000 by June this year, while deportations have risen from an annualized rate of 400,000 to about 600,000 [2] - The total number of foreign workers in the U.S. has decreased by over 1 million in the past four months, with a record 5.4 million people exiting the labor market in May alone [3][4] - The share of foreign workers in the U.S. labor force fell to 19.1% in June from 19.8% in March, indicating a significant impact on industries struggling to replace lost labor [5] Group 3 - The labor shortage related to immigration could reduce the potential annual economic growth rate in the U.S. from 2% to 1% [6] - The job market is experiencing a split, with labor shortages in construction, hospitality, and agriculture, while white-collar job recruitment is slowing due to economic uncertainty [6] - The stable unemployment rate, which slightly decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, may lead the Federal Reserve to refrain from interest rate cuts despite a significant slowdown in job growth [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs credit strategists are urging clients to hedge risks as the yield premium on global corporate notes has narrowed to its lowest level since 2007 [2][3] - The narrowing yield premium on global investment-grade notes has reached 79 basis points, the lowest since July 2007, just before the global financial crisis [3] - Despite the significant narrowing of credit spreads and the S&P 500 reaching a record high, Federal Reserve officials have avoided signaling imminent rate cuts, indicating a need for more data to assess inflation risks [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs economists still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026 [3] - The report highlights that trade policy has become more predictable compared to March and April, allowing the market to significantly lower the pricing of recession risks [3] - As investors begin to digest the differentiated impacts across the supply chain, the effects will become increasingly important through industry-specific variations [3]

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