美国7月份的就业增长放缓，这是一个信号，表明此前损害劳动力市场的局部疲软正开始显现影响。 美国劳工部周五（今日）报告称，经季节性调整后，美国7月份新增就业岗位7.3万个，低于市场预期的 11万个，失业率从4.1%微升至4.2%。 但美联储主席鲍威尔本周指出，失业率的稳定可能掩盖潜在疲软——当求职者减少与岗位空缺下降同时 发生，这种平衡本质上是脆弱的。他在新闻发布会上六次提及劳动力市场的"下行风险"，暗示实际疲软 可能为政策宽松提供依据。 7月份的报告出炉之际，经济学家和决策者们正试图弄清楚关于经济的两种相互矛盾的说法中，哪一种 更为真实。 一种观点认为，经济表现出惊人的韧性。关税威胁虽然已开始渗透到一些价格中，但尚未转化为明显的 通胀。消费者在今年早些时候有所保留后，现在感觉更有信心了。 新增就业岗位的一大部分来自医疗保健和社会援助行业。无论经济状况如何，这些行业通常都表现良 好。联邦政府的裁员继续拖累就业总数，该部门减少了1.2万个工作岗位。 5月和6月的招聘情况比之前报告的要弱得多。修正数据显示，这两个月雇主新增的就业岗位比先前估计 的总共少了25.8万个。 疲软的就业报告很可能会助长对美联储降息的押注， ...

行情回顾 美元指数本周一度大幅上行，主要得益于美国与欧盟等达成贸易协议、好于预期的GDP等美国经济数据、美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会被解读为鹰派，以 及市场削减今年的降息预期。截至本周四，美指已经连续六个交易日收涨，并重回站上100整数关口，创5月底以来新高。但是，周五弱于预期的非农数据直 接将让美元重回99，大幅下挫超过100点，市场重新计价年内两次降息。 现货黄金一度因美元走强而承压下跌。其中，周三金价一度跌破3270美元关口，并创1个多月来最大单日跌幅。周四周五黄金稍微回升，非农后更是直接大 涨40美元，抹去此前全部跌幅，重回3340美元/盎司上方。 非美货币方面，强美元一度导致非美货币走势低迷，英镑兑美元、澳元兑美元均录得六连跌，欧元兑美元录得五连跌，美元兑日元录得上涨。 国际油价本周料将收涨，为三周以来首次，主要因为特朗普将对俄乌停火的最后通牒提前至8月8日，且全球贸易局势出现缓和迹象。 风险资产方面，美股大盘涨势本周有所消停。个股方面，微软盘中市值一度站上4万亿美元，Meta在亮眼财报提振下单日涨11%，设计软件巨头Figma上市首 日上涨256%。 投行观点精选 瑞银称，美元目前的涨势可能是短暂 ...

Group 1 - The total non-farm employment in July showed little change, increasing by 73,000, remaining stable since April [2][8] - The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, with 7.2 million unemployed individuals, showing minimal change from the previous month [3][4] - The healthcare and social assistance sectors continued to see job growth, while federal government employment continued to decline [8][9][10] Group 2 - The number of long-term unemployed individuals (those unemployed for 27 weeks or more) increased by 179,000 to 1.8 million, accounting for 24.9% of the total unemployed population [5] - The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, unchanged from the previous month but down 0.5 percentage points year-over-year [6] - The average hourly wage for all private non-farm employees increased by $0.12, or 0.3%, reaching $36.44, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9% [11]

SHMET 网讯：美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼表达了他们的担忧，认为决策者在降息问题上的犹豫可能会对劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。在本周美联储连续 第五次维持基准利率不变的决议中，沃勒和鲍曼均投下了反对票。他们倾向于将利率下调25个基点。在周五发布的各自声明中，两人解释了自己反对的理 由，均强调劳动力市场出现疲软迹象。他们的观点与鲍威尔及其他政策制定者不同。鲍威尔等人仍然认为劳动力市场整体稳健，支持在调整利率方面保持耐 心。沃勒表示："我认为当前这种观望的态度过于谨慎，在我看来，没有正确平衡经济前景的风险，可能导致政策落后于形势变化。"他指出，考虑到未来的 数据修正以及私营部门就业增长停滞，劳动力市场面临的下行风险正在上升。鲍曼则表示，"劳动力市场的活力正在减弱，并呈现出越来越多的脆弱迹象。" 鲍曼发文全文 2025年7月30日（周三），我对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变的决定投下了反对票。正如会后声明所指出的，我倾向 于将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 在剔除关税的暂时性影响后，通胀已明显接近我们的目标，而劳动力市场依然接近充分就业。今年经济增长放缓，就业市场也显现出活力减弱的迹象， ...

周五，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月季调后非农就业人口录得7.3万人，低于市场预期的11万人，为去年10月以来最小增幅。 美国劳工统计局表示，5月和6月非农就业人数合计下修25.8万人。5月份非农新增就业人数从14.4万人修正至1.9万人；6月份非农新增就业人数从14.7万人修 正至1.4万人。 美国7月失业率录得4.2%，较上月回升，符合市场预期。美国7月平均时薪年率录得3.9%，为3月以来新高，市场预期为3.8%。 美国非农数据公布后，现货黄金触及3330美元/盎司，美元指数短线下挫约40点。非美货币集体走高，英镑兑美元短线拉升70余点，欧元兑美元短线拉升约 90点，美元兑日元短线下挫约110点。 持续更新中…… 机构分析指出，平均时薪并没有传达太多信息。一年多来，收入增长了3.9%，快于通货膨胀，这意味着工人的购买力在上升。考虑到过去两个月的大幅向 下修正，过去三个月的就业人数平均只增加了3.5万人。这无疑是自2020年疫情爆发以来最弱的招聘速度。 需要注意的是，劳动参与率正在下降。劳动力数量连续第二个月出现萎缩，这不是一个好兆头。尽管有很多人退出了就业市场，但7月份的失业率却上升 了，这一事实 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for July, along with average hourly wage growth on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, are set to be released shortly [1]

特朗普：美联储理事会内部异议声强烈，只会愈演愈烈。 （文章来源：金十数据） ...

Group 1 - Glass futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.84% to 1102 yuan/ton, fully reversing the gains from the previous week, primarily due to the end of the macro "anti-involution" trading phase and a decline in market sentiment [1] - The overall glass spot market is under pressure, with the price of 5.00mm large glass sheets in North China falling by 10 yuan to 1240 yuan/ton, indicating weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [1][2] - As of July 31, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises nationwide was 59.49 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy boxes or 3.87% from the previous period, marking a six-week consecutive decline, although the rate of decline has narrowed [2] Group 2 - The glass production and sales showed a high-to-low trend this week, with a decrease in procurement enthusiasm among industry players, despite the overall improvement in production line profitability for seven consecutive weeks [2] - The operating rate of the float glass industry reached 75%, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 79.78%, the highest level this year [2] - The recent important meetings did not signal additional fiscal policy support, emphasizing the need to utilize existing policy packages, which may impact market sentiment and price movements [2] Group 3 - Institutions have differing views on the future price trends of glass, with some suggesting a trading range of 1080-1200 yuan for the FG2509 contract, while others maintain a cautious outlook due to the weak balance between supply and demand [4] - The overall market is at a critical juncture of policy expectation adjustment and fundamental dynamics, with short-term market sentiment cooling significantly [4]

Core Points - The recent tariff modifications announced by President Trump have resulted in an average tariff rate of 15%, which is significantly higher than the rates prior to his administration, indicating a shift in U.S. trade policy [2][4] - The new tariffs are expected to create uncertainty for manufacturers and could lead to increased costs for U.S. consumers, as the tariffs are broadly applied and may affect various sectors [4][8] - The potential economic impact includes a projected reduction of 1.8% in U.S. GDP over the next two to three years and a 1.1% increase in core prices due to the tariff adjustments [4][5] Tariff Details - The new tariffs include a minimum base rate of 10% and higher rates of 15% or more for countries with which the U.S. has a trade surplus [2][3] - Specific punitive tariffs include a 39% rate on Swiss imports and a 35% increase on certain Canadian goods, highlighting the targeted nature of these tariffs [3][4] - The average tariff rate is projected to rise from 13.3% to 15.2% if the new tariffs are implemented as planned [4] Economic Reactions - Economists predict that the tariffs will lead to a demand shock globally, with many central banks considering interest rate cuts in response to the economic slowdown [3][5] - The tariffs are expected to create a significant burden on U.S. households, depending on how exporters and importers share the cost [7][8] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs may lead companies to adopt a cautious approach to investment and planning [6][7] Federal Reserve Implications - The widespread nature of the tariffs complicates the Federal Reserve's position, as there may be a direct impact on consumer prices, which could influence monetary policy decisions [8] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized the need to remain vigilant regarding inflation risks, indicating that the tariffs could have both short-term and potentially lasting effects on price levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller voted against the recent interest rate cut, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction instead, arguing that tariffs only cause a one-time price level increase without leading to sustained inflation [1][2]. Economic Data Analysis - Current economic data suggests that monetary policy should be close to neutral rather than restrictive, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year and expectations of continued low growth through 2025 [2][3]. - The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, near the long-term estimate by the committee, and overall inflation, excluding temporary tariff effects, is slightly above the 2% target [2][3]. Labor Market Considerations - Despite a seemingly stable labor market, private sector job growth is nearly stagnant, indicating increased downside risks in the labor market [3]. - The potential for inflation is close to target, and the risks of inflation rising are limited, suggesting that action should not wait for a clear deterioration in the labor market [3]. Policy Recommendations - Waller suggests that if tariffs do not significantly impact inflation, the committee can continue to lower rates at a moderate pace, while also being prepared to pause if inflation or employment exceeds expectations [4]. - There is no justification for maintaining current interest rates, as it poses risks of a sudden downturn in the labor market [4].