此前四个月，预测者均高估了CPI读数，他们如今也预计6月通胀将出现加速上涨。家具、玩具、娱乐 用品及汽车等受关税影响的品类涨价，被认为将终结通胀持续温和的局面。 根据经济学家的共识预测，美国6月整体CPI和核心CPI均将环比上涨0.3%，从同比增速来看，整体CPI 和核心CPI预计将分别录得2.7%和3%的涨幅，远高于美联储的目标水平。 关税推升通胀的首个真正信号？ AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 自特朗普在第二任期内发动关税战以来，经济学家一直警告，关税将推高美国通胀。周二北京时间 20:30公布的美国6月消费者价格报告（CPI）或将验证这一判断。 美联储官员与私营部门预测者普遍认为，随着企业开始将特朗普关税成本转嫁给消费者，今夏通胀将回 升。尽管许多企业最初通过提前囤货、牺牲利润率吸收部分成本来保护消费者，但如今部分企业已别无 选择。 法国外贸银行CIB Americas首席美国经济学家克里斯·霍奇（Chris Hodge）说："6月CPI是显示关税真正 开始产生明显影响的第一个指标。" 霍奇表示，"我关注的是汽车和服装，上个月这两个行业的价格涨幅都非常低，这与市场预期非常不 符 ...

Group 1 - Meta Platforms plans to invest several hundred billion dollars in building multiple large AI data centers to enhance its competitive edge in attracting top engineering talent [1] - The first data center, "Prometheus," is expected to be operational by 2026, with another center named "Hyperion" scalable to 5 gigawatts in the coming years [1] - Meta aims to become the first AI lab to launch a supercluster exceeding 1 gigawatt, as highlighted in a report by industry publication SemiAnalysis [1] Group 2 - The company reported nearly $165 billion in revenue last year and has restructured its AI business into a "Superintelligence Labs" department following setbacks with its open-source Llama 4 model and core employee departures [2] - Meta is betting that the Superintelligence Labs will generate new cash flows through Meta AI applications, image-to-video advertising tools, and smart glasses [3] - Analysts note that while AI investments have improved ad performance, the scale of current investments is aimed at long-term competition to develop leading AI models, which may take time to yield results [3] Group 3 - Meta has increased its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to between $64 billion and $72 billion to strengthen its position against competitors like OpenAI and Google [3] - The company's stock rose by 1% on Monday and has increased over 20% year-to-date [3]

Group 1 - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon may fully commit to cryptocurrency, a shift from his previous stance labeling it a scam [1] - Coinbase's market capitalization has surpassed $100 billion for the first time, reaching approximately $100.36 billion, driven by a 50% increase in stock price over the past month [2] - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on key cryptocurrency legislation this week, including the Clarity Act and the GENIUS Act, which could establish the first major cryptocurrency laws in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - QCP Capital maintains a structurally bullish outlook on Bitcoin, which has surged past $122,000, driven by technical breakthroughs and increased institutional demand [4] - Coinbase is launching the Pump.fun (PUMP) token on the Base network, labeled as experimental, with trading expected to open on July 15, 2025, subject to liquidity conditions [5] - Bernstein analysts predict the cryptocurrency bull market may extend until early 2026, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [8][9] Group 3 - Hungary has enacted one of the strictest cryptocurrency regulations globally, classifying unauthorized cryptocurrency transactions as crimes, leading to significant confusion in the fintech sector [10] - The Trump administration's regulatory easing is enabling cryptocurrency companies to penetrate the U.S. banking sector, with firms like Ripple and Circle applying for national trust bank licenses [11] - The OCC, Fed, and FDIC have issued a joint statement outlining rules for banks holding customer cryptocurrency assets, emphasizing compliance with existing laws and risk management [12] Group 4 - Vanguard Group has become a major shareholder in Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), holding over 20 million shares, despite previously criticizing Bitcoin as an unsuitable long-term investment [13] - Kazakhstan's central bank plans to invest its gold and foreign exchange reserves into cryptocurrency assets, exploring aggressive strategies for higher returns [14][15] - Bhutan's government has sold $59.47 million worth of Bitcoin in four days but still holds approximately $1.4 billion in Bitcoin [16]

Group 1 - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield briefly rose to 1.595%, the highest level since October 2008, while the 20-year and 30-year yields also reached their highest levels since 1999 and a historical high of 3.195%, respectively [1] - Concerns are growing regarding the potential loss of majority seats by the ruling coalition in the upcoming Senate elections, which could lead to increased political instability and pressure on Japanese bonds [2][3] - The Japanese government is facing declining support due to rising living costs, including a surge in rice prices, which is impacting the ruling party's popularity ahead of the elections [2] Group 2 - Global long-term bond yields are rising, with Japan leading the trend, as concerns over expanding fiscal deficits weaken market demand [3][6] - The focus has shifted from central bank interest rate policies to fiscal and national debt issues, with significant worries about excessive government spending and bond supply [6][9] - The demand for ultra-long bonds is decreasing as traditional buyers, such as life insurance companies, reduce their purchases amid the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the market [9][10]

美联储理事沃勒上周表示，美联储可将银行储备金从当前约3.34万亿美元降至2.7万亿美元左右，从而继续缩 减资产负债表，即"量化紧缩"。 "考虑到2023年3月区域银行业危机（当时显示存款流失风险达到顶峰），以及当前监管框架对流动性的高度 强调，'充足储备金'的阈值可能需要更高，"摩根大通策略师特雷莎·何（Teresa Ho）牵头在7月11日给客户的 报告中称。 纽约联储6月开展的"市场预期调查"显示，量化紧缩结束时，储备金余额的中位数预期为2.875万亿美元。 美联储自2022年6月起开始缩减资产负债表。今年4月，政策制定者放缓了缩表节奏：将每月允许到期不续作 的国债上限从250亿美元降至50亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的上限保持350亿美元不变。 政策制定者的核心目标是避免2019年9月的回购市场动荡重演。在当时的美联储缩表期间，储备金短缺导致 关键贷款利率飙升，联邦基金利率异动，最终迫使美联储出手干预以稳定融资市场。 沃勒上周在达拉斯联储的讲话中提到，2019年9月储备金占GDP比重降至7%以下，而2019年1月占比8%时， 银行体系"无明显压力"。如今，沃勒认为需保留缓冲，将储备金占GDP比重的" ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has broken out of its previous trading range, reaching over $123,000, driven by favorable policies and significant capital inflows [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of policy support, including the upcoming stablecoin legislation and relaxed regulatory stances allowing banks to offer digital asset custody services [1] - A short squeeze has led to billions in liquidated short positions, contributing to a 15% increase in Bitcoin's price over the past week [1][4] - Institutional investors and companies are heavily accumulating Bitcoin, with record low outflows from exchanges indicating a lack of sellers to meet demand [4][5] Group 2: Institutional Involvement - Over $2.7 billion flowed into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs last week, marking one of the highest weekly inflows since their launch in January 2024 [5][7] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has surpassed $85 billion in market value, with predictions of reaching $100 billion soon [5] - New companies are entering the market, raising funds to purchase cryptocurrencies, indicating a shift towards institutional participation in the current bull market [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 soon, with some suggesting a potential target of $250,000 by year-end [4] - The demand for Bitcoin futures remains strong, with open interest reaching a record $86.3 billion, reflecting bullish sentiment among traders [7][8] - Despite the positive momentum, there are concerns about market vulnerabilities, particularly related to geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in risk appetite on Wall Street [8]

Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan on July 15, 2025 [1] - As of the end of June, M2 (broad money) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while M1 (narrow money) grew by 4.6% to 113.95 trillion yuan [2] - The cash in circulation (M0) reached 13.18 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [2] Green Finance Initiatives - The People's Bank of China, along with financial regulatory authorities, issued the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" to enhance liquidity in the green finance market and improve asset management efficiency [2] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - Vanke A expects a net loss of 10 billion to 12 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a basic loss per share of 0.8433 to 1.01 yuan [4] - Yonghui Supermarket anticipates a net loss of 240 million yuan for the first half of 2025, impacted by the closure of 227 underperforming stores [5] - Longi Green Energy forecasts a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan, although it expects to reduce losses compared to the previous year [6] - Hengsheng Electronics projects a net profit of approximately 251 million yuan, a 741% increase year-on-year [7] - Wintime Technology expects a net profit of 390 million to 585 million yuan, representing a growth of 178% to 317% [8] - ST Huatuo anticipates a net profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.2% to 159% [9] - Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the previous year [10] - Ganfeng Lithium forecasts a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, compared to a loss of 760 million yuan in the same period last year [11] - Liyi Intelligent Manufacturing expects a net profit of 900 million to 1.14 billion yuan, a growth of 31.57% to 66.66% [12] - CICC anticipates a net profit of 3.453 billion to 3.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55% to 78% [13] - Shenwan Hongyuan projects a net profit of 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan, a growth of 92.66% to 111.46% [14] - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan, an increase of 84.3% to 120.5% year-on-year [15] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit of 70 million to 85 million yuan, a significant increase from 2.224 million yuan in the previous year [16] Corporate Actions and Legal Matters - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Dongjin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading on July 15, 2025 [17] - BOE Technology Group plans to appeal the preliminary ruling from the US International Trade Commission regarding trade secrets and has initiated a patent lawsuit against Samsung Display [18]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 欧盟周一指责美国阻挠贸易协议达成，并警告称，若无法达成协议以避免特朗普威胁于8月1日生效的惩 罚性关税，将采取反制措施。 混乱中投资者渐趋适应 关税威胁在欧洲敲响了警钟，尤其是对于欧盟最大经济体德国而言。 与此同时，特朗普表示，在30%的新关税下月生效前，愿与欧盟及其他贸易伙伴进一步磋商，且欧盟官 员将赴美谈判。 "他们希望达成一份不同的协议，我们始终愿意对话，包括与欧洲，"他在椭圆形办公室告诉记者，"事 实上，他们就要来了，想谈谈。" 特朗普上周六升级贸易战，称将于下月对欧盟和墨西哥的大部分进口商品加征30%关税——此前他已对 日本、韩国等亚洲经济强国发出类似警告。 欧盟准备反制：210亿欧元清单待命 目前欧盟仍未采取报复措施，希望留有谈判改善结果的空间，避免针锋相对的升级。但周一在布鲁塞尔 开完会后，欧盟各国部长似乎更倾向于反击。 丹麦外交大臣拉尔斯·勒克·拉斯穆森（Lars Lokke Rasmussen）在会后新闻发布会上称，关税威胁"完全 不可接受"。 欧盟贸易专员马罗斯·塞夫科维奇（Maros Sefcovic）表示，他认为"仍有继续谈判的 ...

哈塞特的核心竞争力 63岁的哈塞特是至少四位美联储主席候选人之一，特朗普认为他们会比现任主席鲍威尔更响应自己的降 息诉求。在上周五被记者问及是否会解雇鲍威尔时，特朗普表示不会，但称鲍威尔"做得很糟糕"，并认 为利率应再降3个百分点。 据《华尔街邮报》报道，知情人士透露，白宫顶级经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）正成为下任 美联储主席的主要候选人。当前，美国总统特朗普正考虑任命一位与自己立场更一致的美联储主席。 目前遴选过程仍存在变数，哈塞特未必能最终获任，但知情人士称，这位国家经济委员会（National Economic Council）主任、特朗普第一任期核心经济顾问，拥有其他候选人不具备的优势。 哈塞特曾担任经济顾问委员会主席，是保守派经济学家，曾在哥伦比亚大学任教，任职于美国企业研究 所等右翼智库，职业生涯早期曾在美联储担任经济学家。他公开主张降息，呼应特朗普"美联储应更支 持经济增长"的观点。 作为税收与投资关系专家，他为特朗普本月签署的大规模税收与支出法案提供了关键经济论证。 哈塞特与特朗普关系密切，为其效力近十年，是少数既能赢得总统青睐又始终获其信任的顾问之一。他 在特朗普第一任 ...

Group 1 - Trump will announce a $70 billion investment plan focused on artificial intelligence and energy, aimed at accelerating the development of emerging technologies [1] - The plan includes the construction of data centers, expansion of power generation capacity, upgrades to grid infrastructure, and AI talent training programs [1] - Blackstone Inc. is expected to announce a $25 billion project related to data centers and energy infrastructure, which will create 6,000 construction jobs and 3,000 permanent positions annually [1] Group 2 - This marks the third major technology investment mobilization during Trump's second term, following a previous $100 billion investment involving SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle [2] - The U.S. government aims to maintain its AI competitive edge against China, especially after the low-cost technological breakthroughs by Chinese startup DeepSeek [2] - The White House warns that electricity consumption by data centers is projected to rise from 3.5% to 8.6% by 2035, highlighting the need for a diverse energy mix to prevent power shortages [2] Group 3 - The strategy of linking electricity supply to national security reflects the underlying energy concerns in the AI competition [3] - Pennsylvania, chosen as the announcement location, is a key swing state that recently witnessed a significant acquisition in the steel industry, showcasing the balance between industry interests and job security [3]