随着通胀温和、失业率稳定以及美股重回历史高点，特朗普似乎毫无理由收敛其全球对等关税野心。但 8月1日即将生效的30%对欧关税，或将首次给美国消费者和企业带来经济学家长期担忧的毁灭性打击。 "关税税率越高，滞胀风险就越大，"联博经济学家埃里克·维诺格拉德（Eric Winograd）指出。作为彼 此最大贸易伙伴，美欧供应链一旦断裂，破坏力将远超此前任何一轮关税。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩警 告，新关税将"破坏跨大西洋关键供应链，损害双方企业、消费者和患者的利益"。 尽管企业通过提前囤货暂时缓解了冲击，但库存耗尽后终将面临抉择——是将成本转嫁给愈发谨慎的消 费者，还是通过裁员来维持利润？ 白宫经济顾问哈塞特却坚称"数据未见负面影响"，并援引内部研究称进口商品价格自2月以来持续下 降。这种"数据爱国主义"论调遭专家质疑——毕竟最具杀伤力的关税尚未落地。 TS Lombard首席经济学家史蒂文·布利茨（Steven Blitz）指出："这本质是企业利润税，最终总要有人买 单。"在某个时候，企业将耗尽其现有库存，这意味着它们将不得不以更高的价格进口新的供应。 更棘手的是，美联储正陷入通胀与增长的双重困局。尽管市场预期9月可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in former President Trump's stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, revealing his encouragement for Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory, including Moscow, if provided with long-range weapons [2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Position and Discussions - Trump privately urged Ukraine to enhance its military actions against Russia, indicating a departure from his previous commitment to reduce U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts [2]. - During a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky on July 4, Trump inquired if Ukraine could target Moscow with U.S. supplied long-range weapons, to which Zelensky affirmed the capability if provided with the necessary arms [2][3]. - The conversation reflects a growing desire among Ukraine's Western partners to supply long-range weapons that could bring the conflict to Russian territory [3]. Group 2: Military Aid and Weaponry - Following the Trump-Zelensky discussion, a potential list of weapons for Ukraine was shared during a meeting in Rome, which could allow the U.S. to bypass Congress's freeze on direct military aid by authorizing European allies to supply arms to Ukraine [3]. - Ukraine has requested long-range "Tomahawk" cruise missiles with a range of approximately 1,600 kilometers, but concerns about Ukraine's lack of restraint have been expressed by both Trump and Biden administrations [3][4]. - Trump announced a plan to provide Ukraine with "Patriot" air defense systems and intercept missiles, but did not disclose details on other weapon systems [3]. Group 3: Russian Response and Military Dynamics - Russia has threatened to attack Western targets in response to advanced weapon supplies to Ukraine, but has not yet acted on these threats [5]. - Following Ukraine's use of ATACMS to strike Russian territory, Putin indicated that the conflict has global implications and warned of potential retaliatory actions against countries supplying Ukraine with weapons [5]. - Washington has previously cautioned Ukraine against deep strikes into Russia, but these restrictions appear to be loosening as Ukraine employs domestically produced drones for attacks on Russian military targets [6].

Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia has faced production issues with the GB200 NVL72 rack, leading to a second reduction in its CoWoS supply and shipments falling below targets [1] - KeyBanc analysts expect Nvidia's Q2 revenue to be $45.1 billion, slightly below market expectations of $45.6 billion, but anticipate a Q3 guidance of $53.5 billion, exceeding the FactSet consensus of $51.8 billion [3] - Market sentiment remains positive due to Nvidia's strong position in the generative AI sector, with investors focusing on its business in China, the impact of U.S. export controls, and feedback on the Blackwell platform and NVLink technology [3] Group 2: AMD - KeyBanc forecasts AMD's Q2 revenue to be $7.51 billion, above market expectations of $7.41 billion, with Q3 guidance expected to reach $8.63 billion, also higher than the consensus of $8.25 billion [4] - Despite maintaining an "equal weight" rating due to uncertainties in the data center GPU business and potential weakness in PC sales, AMD has made progress in the AI market [4] - Investors are expected to focus on customer feedback for the MI355 chip, annual AI-related revenue forecasts, traditional server business performance, and future plans for the MI400 series [4] Group 3: Broadcom - KeyBanc anticipates Broadcom's Q3 revenue to be $15.8 billion, in line with market expectations, while Q4 revenue is projected to reach $17.7 billion, surpassing the consensus of $17 billion [5] - Investors will be monitoring Broadcom's AI business outlook, ASIC order backlog, customer collaborations, and updates related to trade tensions with China and the development of the iPhone 17 in partnership with Apple [5] Group 4: Qualcomm and Monolithic Power Systems - KeyBanc holds a cautious outlook on Qualcomm and Monolithic Power Systems, with Monolithic expected to regain some market share on Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra HGX platform, but overall market share growth is limited due to a decline in enterprise data business [6] - Qualcomm's performance in the June quarter is expected to benefit from short-term gains due to subsidies for Chinese head-mounted devices, but guidance for the September quarter may be lowered as subsidy funds decrease [6] - Overall sentiment towards Qualcomm is negative, with concerns over Apple's in-house baseband chip development and a slowdown in Android smartphone demand impacting future performance guidance [6]

Group 1 - The European ministers are optimistic about reaching a trade agreement with the Trump administration before the August 1 deadline, aiming to maintain the $1.7 trillion bilateral trade relationship [2] - Trump's fluctuating sentiments towards the EU, sometimes friendly and other times accusatory, contribute to the ongoing threat of a 30% tariff [2] - The EU trade chief indicated that continuing trade in the traditional transatlantic manner would be nearly impossible under such tariffs, effectively prohibiting trade [2] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that an average tariff rate of 35% on EU goods, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from Brussels, could reduce Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [3] - The potential economic loss for Germany due to tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% could exceed €200 billion by 2028, impacting Chancellor Merz's plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending [3] - The long-term implications of high tariffs raise concerns about how Europe will compensate for lost economic activity to fund essential services and military restructuring [3] Group 3 - The EU has made progress in establishing preliminary agreements with new trade partners, but faces challenges in finalizing these agreements [4] - Analysts suggest that the confrontation with Trump may provide the EU with an opportunity to push through long-delayed single market reforms and rebalance its economy away from heavy reliance on exports [4] Group 4 - The IMF estimates that internal barriers to the free movement of goods within the EU equate to tariffs of 44% on goods and 110% on services [5] - Proposed reforms to create a more open cross-border capital market have seen little progress over the past decade [5] - The EU remains open to negotiations while preparing retaliatory measures in case talks break down, with uncertainty potentially influencing Trump's decision-making [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Securities Depository (ECSD) warns that the EU's plan to invest frozen Russian assets into higher-risk investments to increase aid to Ukraine could be tantamount to "confiscation" [1][3] Group 1: Financial Implications - Approximately €191 billion of Russian central bank assets are currently frozen in the ECSD due to Western sanctions, and the EU Commission is exploring ways to extract more value from these assets [1] - The ECSD has paid €4 billion to Ukraine last year and €1.8 billion this year, with plans to potentially create a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to manage these assets [2] - The proposal to shift cash into higher-risk asset classes comes as profits from these assets have been declining due to lower interest rates from the European Central Bank [1] Group 2: Legal and Risk Considerations - Creating an SPV would legally imply "confiscation" of cash from the ECSD, while still holding the obligation to return it to the Russian central bank, leading to significant legal and financial risks [3] - The ECSD is facing over 100 lawsuits related to frozen Russian assets, including those belonging to oligarchs and other sanctioned entities [3] - Russia has already confiscated €33 billion of assets belonging to ECSD clients that were previously frozen in its corresponding institution in Moscow [3] Group 3: Market Integration and Regulation - The ECSD is keen on advancing the EU's initiative to integrate its fragmented capital markets, aiming to unlock untapped savings and improve financing for companies [4] - The ECSD plans to provide a "single access point" for retail and institutional investors across the 27 member states [4] - The CEO of the ECSD supports more centralized regulation of central securities depositories as a key element of the EU capital markets initiative [4]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 自美国总统特朗普第二任期开始不久后，威胁对国际贸易体系进行数十年来最大规模的全面重塑以来， 主流经济学家就一直警告物价将大幅上涨。 但现在，2025年已经过半，这场半个世纪以来最深刻的贸易重组也已进行多月，所谓"关税推动的通 胀"却迟迟没有出现。 从美国的财政数据来看，关税确实已经实施。财政部目前已征收创纪录的1000亿美元关税，今年预计将 达到3000亿美元。这些关税由美国进口商，如沃尔玛及其他零售商在商品入境时支付。 关税需要一段时间才会逐步传导到终端价格，并最终影响官方通胀指标中的整体价格水平。 然而，真正让人困惑的是：目前关税带来的价格上涨在通胀数据中完全没有体现。 在过去的连续四个月里，美国劳工统计局公布的官方通胀数据都低于预期，5月的CPI通胀仅为2.4%。 总统经济顾问委员会（CEA）上周甚至发表简报称，进口价格实际上在下降。 通胀数据中为何看不到关税冲击？《财富》杂志采访的顶级经济学家们给出了一些解释。几乎所有受访 经济学家都提到：关税并不意味着卖家可以"直接涨价"，而是引发进口商、出口商与美国消费者之间一 场复杂的博弈。不同商品和行业 ...

Group 1 - Indian investors are shifting their focus from gold to silver, with silver prices nearing a 14-year high and significantly outperforming gold this year [1][2] - Domestic silver prices in India have reached a historical high of 114,875 INR (1,336 USD) per kilogram, driven by supply shortages and rising investor expectations for further price increases [1][2] - Over the past three months, silver prices in India have increased by 21%, compared to a 5% rise in gold prices, marking a reversal from the previous year when gold surged by 34% and silver only by 23% [2] Group 2 - The demand for silver is being driven by investments in sectors such as solar energy and electric vehicles, which have outpaced silver production [2][4] - Record inflows into silver ETFs in June reached 20.04 billion INR, a significant increase from 8.53 billion INR in May, with total inflows for Q2 amounting to 39.25 billion INR, far exceeding gold ETFs' 23.67 billion INR [2] - The Silver Institute reported a 7% year-on-year increase in retail investment demand for silver in India for the first half of 2025, driven by expectations of rising prices [4] Group 3 - The shift towards silver is attracting a growing number of urban investors, traditionally, silver was favored by budget-conscious rural consumers [3] - The convenience of silver ETFs is appealing to investors, as they avoid the high costs associated with storing and transporting physical silver [3]

Group 1 - Silver has experienced a significant price increase, maintaining close to a 14-year high, despite failing to sustain an initial breakout above $39 per ounce [1] - Strong industrial demand is a key driver behind the notable supply deficit in the silver market, with investment interest now taking a dominant role [1] - Recent trading data shows a divergence in the silver market, where speculative futures investors are taking profits while ETF investors are increasing their positions [1] Group 2 - The net long position in silver is currently at 42,756 contracts, reflecting a nearly 5% decrease from the previous week [2] - The inflow of funds into global silver ETFs reached 322,000 ounces last week, with total holdings rising to 775 million ounces, the highest level since August 2022 [2] Group 3 - Macquarie remains optimistic about silver but believes the current price surge has limits, raising its price forecast for silver due to increased investor demand [3] - The bank now expects an average silver price of $36 per ounce in Q3, up from a previous estimate of $33, and $35 for Q4, reflecting a 13% increase [3] - Looking ahead to 2026, silver prices are projected to remain above $30 per ounce, with expectations of a peak this summer [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a consolidation phase around $3,300 per ounce, with investors awaiting clearer signals regarding interest rate policies and trade situations [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council indicates that the recent imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. government serves as a reminder that gold may also face similar tariff adjustments in the future [1] - The current price of gold reflects a lack of clarity among market participants regarding key driving factors, with prices remaining stable around $3,300 [2][3] - Gold has seen a significant increase of nearly 26% this year, which is notable compared to the average expected return rate of around 8% [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The annual growth rate of gold production is expected to remain between 1% and 2.5%, aligning with the World Gold Council's forecasts [3] - Small-scale artisanal mining contributes approximately 20% to the total gold supply, and the organization is taking measures to regulate this sector [3] - Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, accounting for about 20% to 25% of global annual gold consumption over the past three to four years [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that central banks will continue to be active in the gold market, with 50% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months [4] - A report on gold demand trends will be released soon, which is expected to show strong central bank demand for gold in the second quarter [4]

此前四个月，预测者均高估了CPI读数，他们如今也预计6月通胀将出现加速上涨。家具、玩具、娱乐 用品及汽车等受关税影响的品类涨价，被认为将终结通胀持续温和的局面。 根据经济学家的共识预测，美国6月整体CPI和核心CPI均将环比上涨0.3%，从同比增速来看，整体CPI 和核心CPI预计将分别录得2.7%和3%的涨幅，远高于美联储的目标水平。 关税推升通胀的首个真正信号？ AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 自特朗普在第二任期内发动关税战以来，经济学家一直警告，关税将推高美国通胀。周二北京时间 20:30公布的美国6月消费者价格报告（CPI）或将验证这一判断。 美联储官员与私营部门预测者普遍认为，随着企业开始将特朗普关税成本转嫁给消费者，今夏通胀将回 升。尽管许多企业最初通过提前囤货、牺牲利润率吸收部分成本来保护消费者，但如今部分企业已别无 选择。 法国外贸银行CIB Americas首席美国经济学家克里斯·霍奇（Chris Hodge）说："6月CPI是显示关税真正 开始产生明显影响的第一个指标。" 霍奇表示，"我关注的是汽车和服装，上个月这两个行业的价格涨幅都非常低，这与市场预期非常不 符 ...