AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 欧盟周一指责美国阻挠贸易协议达成，并警告称，若无法达成协议以避免特朗普威胁于8月1日生效的惩 罚性关税，将采取反制措施。 混乱中投资者渐趋适应 关税威胁在欧洲敲响了警钟，尤其是对于欧盟最大经济体德国而言。 与此同时，特朗普表示，在30%的新关税下月生效前，愿与欧盟及其他贸易伙伴进一步磋商，且欧盟官 员将赴美谈判。 "他们希望达成一份不同的协议，我们始终愿意对话，包括与欧洲，"他在椭圆形办公室告诉记者，"事 实上，他们就要来了，想谈谈。" 特朗普上周六升级贸易战，称将于下月对欧盟和墨西哥的大部分进口商品加征30%关税——此前他已对 日本、韩国等亚洲经济强国发出类似警告。 欧盟准备反制：210亿欧元清单待命 目前欧盟仍未采取报复措施，希望留有谈判改善结果的空间，避免针锋相对的升级。但周一在布鲁塞尔 开完会后，欧盟各国部长似乎更倾向于反击。 丹麦外交大臣拉尔斯·勒克·拉斯穆森（Lars Lokke Rasmussen）在会后新闻发布会上称，关税威胁"完全 不可接受"。 欧盟贸易专员马罗斯·塞夫科维奇（Maros Sefcovic）表示，他认为"仍有继续谈判的 ...

哈塞特的核心竞争力 63岁的哈塞特是至少四位美联储主席候选人之一，特朗普认为他们会比现任主席鲍威尔更响应自己的降 息诉求。在上周五被记者问及是否会解雇鲍威尔时，特朗普表示不会，但称鲍威尔"做得很糟糕"，并认 为利率应再降3个百分点。 据《华尔街邮报》报道，知情人士透露，白宫顶级经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）正成为下任 美联储主席的主要候选人。当前，美国总统特朗普正考虑任命一位与自己立场更一致的美联储主席。 目前遴选过程仍存在变数，哈塞特未必能最终获任，但知情人士称，这位国家经济委员会（National Economic Council）主任、特朗普第一任期核心经济顾问，拥有其他候选人不具备的优势。 哈塞特曾担任经济顾问委员会主席，是保守派经济学家，曾在哥伦比亚大学任教，任职于美国企业研究 所等右翼智库，职业生涯早期曾在美联储担任经济学家。他公开主张降息，呼应特朗普"美联储应更支 持经济增长"的观点。 作为税收与投资关系专家，他为特朗普本月签署的大规模税收与支出法案提供了关键经济论证。 哈塞特与特朗普关系密切，为其效力近十年，是少数既能赢得总统青睐又始终获其信任的顾问之一。他 在特朗普第一任 ...

Group 1 - Trump will announce a $70 billion investment plan focused on artificial intelligence and energy, aimed at accelerating the development of emerging technologies [1] - The plan includes the construction of data centers, expansion of power generation capacity, upgrades to grid infrastructure, and AI talent training programs [1] - Blackstone Inc. is expected to announce a $25 billion project related to data centers and energy infrastructure, which will create 6,000 construction jobs and 3,000 permanent positions annually [1] Group 2 - This marks the third major technology investment mobilization during Trump's second term, following a previous $100 billion investment involving SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle [2] - The U.S. government aims to maintain its AI competitive edge against China, especially after the low-cost technological breakthroughs by Chinese startup DeepSeek [2] - The White House warns that electricity consumption by data centers is projected to rise from 3.5% to 8.6% by 2035, highlighting the need for a diverse energy mix to prevent power shortages [2] Group 3 - The strategy of linking electricity supply to national security reflects the underlying energy concerns in the AI competition [3] - Pennsylvania, chosen as the announcement location, is a key swing state that recently witnessed a significant acquisition in the steel industry, showcasing the balance between industry interests and job security [3]

Group 1 - Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if no agreement is reached regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days [9] - The Federal Reserve's Harker states there is currently no urgent need for interest rate cuts [3][13] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on the 15th [3][13] Group 2 - The US stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.2%, Nasdaq up 0.27%, and S&P 500 up 0.14% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.26%, with notable gains in construction materials, coal, and infrastructure stocks [4] - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.27% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.11% [5] Group 3 - International oil prices fell sharply due to renewed trade tensions, with WTI crude down 2.56% and Brent crude down 2.16% [3][6] - Gold prices closed at $3343.52 per ounce, down 0.37%, while silver prices fell to $38.14 per ounce, down 0.62% [6] - Bitcoin prices surpassed $123,000, setting a new historical record, while Ethereum returned to the $3,000 mark [5]

Group 1 - New Yi Sheng expects a net profit increase of 327.68%-385.47% for the first half of 2025, reaching between 37 billion to 42 billion yuan, driven by growth in AI-related computing power demand and product structure optimization [2][4] - Xinghui Entertainment plans to sell 99.66% of its stake in the Spanish club Espanyol for 1.3 billion euros, with half of the payment in cash and the other half in shares [3] - *ST Yushun intends to acquire 100% of three companies for a total of 33.5 billion yuan, aiming to diversify its business into data center infrastructure services and related products [4] Group 2 - Salted Fish plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.04%, with a major shareholder intending to sell 5,455,572 shares [5] - Lian Microelectronics expects a net loss of approximately 1.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [6] - Meinian Health anticipates a net loss of 1.92 billion to 2.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to decline by 0.12%-5.83% [7] Group 3 - Chengdi Xiangjiang forecasts a net profit of 28 million to 42 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 69.29 million yuan in the previous year [8] - Jinpu Titanium plans to acquire 100% of Nanjing Lide Oriental Rubber and Plastic Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [9] - Bohai Leasing expects a net loss of 1.8 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 due to goodwill impairment from a subsidiary's asset sale [10] Group 4 - Foton Motor anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 87.5% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 777 million yuan [11] - Shenwan Hongyuan expects a net profit growth of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [12] - Ganfeng Lithium predicts a net loss of 5.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from a loss of 7.6 billion yuan in the previous year [13] Group 5 - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Dongjin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [14] - Xiangyang Bearing expects a net loss of approximately 13 million yuan for the first half of 2025, slightly worse than the previous year's loss [15] - Tianqi Lithium forecasts a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the previous year [16] Group 6 - Shandong Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 84.3%-120.5% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan [17] - Yunnan Geology expects a net profit of 16 million to 23 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [18] - Four-dimensional Map expects a net loss of 319 million to 268 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth of 3.07%-14.30% [19] Group 7 - Tangrenshen anticipates a net loss of 54 million to 69 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year's profit [20] - Changbai Mountain expects a net loss of 2.58 million to 1.58 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue decreasing by approximately 7.48% [21] - Jiu Gui Jiu predicts a net profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 90.08%-93.39% compared to the previous year [22] Group 8 - Hengsheng Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 251 million yuan [23] - Qixia Construction anticipates a net profit of 5.5 million to 8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions [24] - Poly Development expects a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 27.35 billion yuan [25] Group 9 - Anyuan Coal anticipates a net loss of 259 million to 310 million yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [26] - Zhonghua Equipment plans to acquire 100% of Yiyang Rubber Machine and Beihua Machine, with stock suspension expected for no more than 10 trading days [27] - Bayi Steel expects a net loss of 650 million to 700 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak market conditions [28] Group 10 - Yuegui Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 58.67%-77.12% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 215 million to 240 million yuan [29] - Dalian Friendship expects a net loss of 38 million to 30 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by tax-related issues [30] - Hangfa Power expects a net profit decrease of 84.53%-86.55% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 80 million to 92 million yuan [31] Group 11 - Dongfang Zirconium anticipates a net profit increase of 141.77%-156.80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 25 million to 34 million yuan [32] - Hangzhou Steel expects a net profit decrease of 2% from a major shareholder's planned reduction [33] - Jingao Technology predicts a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [34] Group 12 - Shanshan Co. expects a net profit increase of 810.41%-1265.61% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 160 million to 240 million yuan [35] - Guocheng Mining anticipates a net profit increase of 1046.75%-1174.69% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 493 million to 548 million yuan [36] - Jindi Group expects a net loss of 3.4 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [37] Group 13 - Founder Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 22.96 billion to 24.32 billion yuan [38] - Hasi Lian expects a net loss of 98 million to 80 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [39] - Lanhua Ketech expects a net profit decrease of 89.12%-92.75% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 60 million yuan [40] Group 14 - Shanxi Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 58.17%-70.72% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 5.04 billion to 5.44 billion yuan [41] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 3.5 billion to 3.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [42] - Xiangcai Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 63.64%-118.19% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 12 million to 16 million yuan [43] Group 15 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, despite an increase in sales volume [44] - Wentai Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 178%-317% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 390 million to 585 million yuan [45] - Ruida Futures expects a net profit increase of 50.56%-83.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 206 million to 251 million yuan [46] Group 16 - Debang Co. anticipates a net profit decrease of 84.26%-87.86% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 52 million yuan [47] - Jin Yi Culture expects a net loss of 20 million to 32 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [48] - Hongdian Film expects a net profit increase of 103.55%-160.09% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 180 million to 230 million yuan [49] Group 17 - Qiaqia Food anticipates a net profit decrease of 71.05%-76.25% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 80 million to 97.5 million yuan [50] - Guotai Haitong expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [51] - Xining Special Steel expects a net loss of approximately 234 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by low steel prices [52]

卡托研究所货币与金融替代方案中心研究员Jai Kedia表示，将政治经济动荡归咎于美联储，这在美国政 坛早已司空见惯。但近期针对美联储的抨击已突破常规尺度，甚至可能严重损害其公信力。 Kedia表示，当前正值美联储启动2025年框架审查的关键窗口，这或是推行规则化的黄金契机。若美联 储仍拒绝变革，国会应考虑立法强制其接受规则约束——这不仅是为遏制自由裁量权的滥用，更是保护 美联储免受政治攻击的最后防线。 特朗普公开辱骂美联储主席鲍威尔是"榆木脑袋"和"蠢货"，副总统万斯指责美联储拒绝降息是"货币政 策渎职"，商务部长卢特尼克更直接警告鲍威尔"你的职责是帮助美国人而非伤害他们"。 抛开这些幼稚的人身攻击，特朗普政府对美联储的施压暴露出更深层问题：货币政策决策既缺乏标准又 晦涩难懂。公众该如何客观评估这些批评的合理性？又如何量化美联储的执政表现？ 以新冠疫情后的通胀失控为例。美联储当时将物价上涨定性为"暂时性现象"，迟迟不愿提高基准利率， 最终导致通胀根深蒂固。但值得注意的是，当时经济学界共识确实未能预见通胀会如此严重偏离趋势 线。 判断美联储表现的最佳方式，是将其实施利率与主流货币政策规则的建议值进行对比——多 ...

周一，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克的表态明确指出，鉴于美国通胀依然过高，且贸易关税对价格压力的影 响存在持续不确定性，美联储目前没有立即降息的必要。 她在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示："我们非常接近中性利率水平，我看到经济具有韧性，运行良 好，除非劳动力市场出现实质性疲软，否则我不会认为有必要真正降低（利率）。" 对于哈玛克来说，通胀水平仍高于2%的目标，是短期信贷成本下调的主要障碍。关于本月底（7月29日 至30日）举行的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，哈玛克向该电视频道透露："我带着开放的心态 参加每一次会议，等待数据指引我们，等待讨论结果。" 她补充道："但就我目前的观察而言，我们正在实现就业方面的使命，而在通胀方面尚未达标。"她强 调，鉴于通胀仍旧过高，"我认为我们保持限制性货币政策立场非常重要，以确保我们将通胀降至2%的 目标。" 近几周发表讲话的大多数美联储官员似乎都同意，目前的联邦基金目标利率区间（目前介于4.25%至 4.5%之间）将在本月底保持不变。在美联储上个月的会议上，官员们预测今年晚些时候将有两次降 息，投资者普遍预计宽松政策将从9月份的会议开始。 然而，少数美联储官员则倾向于在7月份降 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 监察长办公室此前已审查过这个规划已久的项目，但这次审查意在在审查力度加大的时刻进行一次全新 的审视。 白宫官员和国会盟友指责美联储在其长期的总部大楼及隔壁另一座历史建筑中，建造了一个过度奢华的 园区。 《联邦储备法》赋予了美联储理事会在其房地产决策上的广泛权力，规定其"可以维护、扩大或改造"其 已收购或建造的"任何建筑物"，并"应对此类建筑物及其中的空间拥有唯一控制权"。 上周五，美联储罕见地在其官网的建筑项目常见问题解答中新增页面，为其总部大楼翻新项目辩护。该 页面提供了大量背景信息，直接回应特朗普政府的批评指控。 美联储坚称，委员会"在其建筑项目上通常不受NCPC的指导"，且它不认为对其项目所做的更改需要对 其在2021年已批准的计划进行"进一步审查"，并指出无新建VIP餐厅、无VIP电梯、无新增水景。 美联储还解释道，项目成本上升由多因素驱动，关键包括：1、设计变更：因与审核机构协商，对原始 建筑设计进行调整。2、成本差异：材料、设备和劳动力的原始估算与实际成本随时间产生偏差。3、意 外状况：发现石棉含量超预期、土壤有毒污染、地下水位高于预期等未预见问题。 音频由扣 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing its longest losing streak against the US dollar in two years, leading options traders to adopt a bearish outlook on the currency [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The pound fell 0.3% to a three-week low of 1.3452 USD, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, the longest since July 2023 [3]. - The decline is attributed to a stronger US dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth in the UK [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - UK economic data revealed a surprise contraction of 0.1% in May, highlighting downside risks to growth and reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Bank of England [3]. - Current market pricing indicates an expectation of 58 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, up from 51 basis points the previous week [1]. Group 3: Central Bank Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in the next meeting is now estimated at 80%, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach until at least September [5]. - Upcoming key data releases, including inflation reports from both the UK and the US, as well as UK labor market data, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [5].

今日国内贵金属市场延续强势格局。沪银主力合约上周五夜盘首度突破9200元/千克关口后，今日继续 攀升，收盘大涨2.11%报9207元/千克，刷新历史峰值；沪金同步走强，收涨1.06%报781.4元/克。关税政 策波澜再起，美联储独立性受到干预，贵金属表现偏强，银价取得关键技术突破，关注关税谈判进展和 美联储政策动向。 关税惊雷引爆市场，避险情绪急速升温 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布致墨西哥和欧 盟的信件，宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。首创期货 指出，受美联储政策、贸易紧张局势和供应缺口收紧的推动，国际银价短线飙升至39美元，为2011年以 来最高水平。美联储7月会议纪要显示，2025年降息将获得强劲支撑，美国国债收益率大幅走低，提振 白银。特朗普对14个国家激进的关税升级引发了避险资金流入白银和黄金市场。 国信期货指出，本轮突破行情或受关税冲突激化驱动，特朗普宣布对墨西哥、欧盟加征30%关税后，墨 方迅速斥责为"不公待遇"并启动烧碱反倾销调查，政策对抗或再度升级；与此同时中东局势持续紧绷， 伊朗核协议谈判陷 ...