Core Points - Israel anticipates U.S. support for potential strikes against Iran if it attempts to restart its nuclear program [2][3] - The U.S. and Israel acknowledge the success of recent military actions against Iran's nuclear facilities, but warn of possible renewed conflict if Iran does not maintain peace [2][4] - Israeli officials believe that the U.S. has committed to a "zero enrichment" policy regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities [3] Summary by Sections - **U.S.-Israel Relations** - President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu praised the success of recent military actions against Iran's nuclear program during a dinner meeting [2] - Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer indicated that the U.S. might support new strikes under specific conditions, such as Iran attempting to rebuild its nuclear program [2][3] - **Iran's Nuclear Program** - Approximately 400 kilograms (882 pounds) of 60% enriched uranium were stored in underground facilities, which are now under scrutiny following U.S. airstrikes [3] - The U.S. denies that the enriched uranium was moved before the strikes, asserting that it was destroyed during the attacks [3] - **Upcoming Negotiations** - High-level discussions between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations are expected to commence within a week [4] - Trump expressed uncertainty about the negotiations' focus, given his belief that Iran's nuclear program has been "thoroughly destroyed" [4] - **Military Actions and Consequences** - Netanyahu stated that the recent military actions have thwarted threats to Israel's existence, specifically targeting Iran's nuclear and missile programs [6] - The conflict has resulted in significant casualties in Iran, with reports of 28 deaths and thousands injured due to retaliatory missile strikes [6] - **Future Outlook** - Both Trump and Netanyahu expressed a desire for peace, with Trump indicating a willingness to lift sanctions on Iran if it seeks peaceful reconstruction [5] - Netanyahu emphasized the need for ongoing monitoring to prevent the resurgence of Iran's nuclear ambitions [6]

日本首相石破茂周二表示将继续与美谈判，寻求达成互利贸易协议。此前特朗普宣布自8月1日起对日本 商品加征25%关税。特朗普周一虽向贸易伙伴发出大幅增税通知，但暗示若各国提出可接受方案或将推 迟实施。 据报道，韩国贸易部长吕翰九在华盛顿与美国商务部长卢特尼克会晤时，还要求美方降低韩国企业在汽 车、钢铁等领域的关税。 财务大臣加藤胜信周二在记者会上表示，目前暂无计划与美国财政部长贝森特就汇率问题进行磋商。 日本未能在特朗普"对等关税"临时暂停令7月9日到期前达成协议，其谈判重点本是取消汽车25%关税 ——这是其出口依赖型经济的支柱产业。随着7月20日参议院选举临近，石破茂强调日本不会为尽早达 成协议作出"轻易让步"。近期民调显示执政联盟可能失去参议院多数席位，分析师称这将使贸易谈判复 杂化。 美国关税加剧日本经济困境，该国一季度经济已现萎缩。5月实际工资创近两年最大降幅，政府周一更 作出近五年来最悲观经济评估。SMBC日兴证券预计25%关税将导致2026年3月截止的财年经济增长减 少0.26个百分点。 日本综合研究所分析师藤本和树指出："虽避免最坏情况，但25%关税仍将使出口企业利润骤降25%"， 并警告"若企业利 ...

瑞银集团委托进行的一项对央行储备管理者的调查发现，近半数受访者认为美国进行债务重组是一个可 能的情景。 或许正因如此，多元化仍然是储备管理者们所坚持的一项基本信条，他们中几乎所有人都看好黄金， 67%的受访者认为黄金是当前至本十年末表现最佳的资产类别，而2024年的调查中这一比例仅为21%。 没有受访者计划在未来12个月内减少其黄金敞口，略超三分之一的受访者报告在去年增加了持有量。 对美国风险资产来说，一个更积极的消息是，80%的受访者预测美元仍将是世界储备货币，但同时也观 察到，储备多元化的驱动力正变得更强。话虽如此，去年美元持有量的平均份额实际上还增加了一个百 分点，达到56%。 其他可能令投资者警惕的发现包括，三分之二的受访者对美联储的独立性感到担忧，近半数受访者对美 国经济数据的质量以及法治正在减弱的看法感到不安。 尽管地缘政治仍是各国央行的主要关切，但它已被特朗普政府对贸易和国际联盟的政策所产生的潜在影 响所取代，成为首要风险，有74%的受访者提到了这一点。他们可能想到了4月份，当时特朗普在宣布 其"解放日"关税时，断言贸易战的进行和取胜都"简单直接"。令人惊讶的是，考虑到这个受访群体，经 济问题被 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly kept the interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait-and-see approach due to global uncertainties from U.S. tariff plans [1][3] - Economists debated the potential for further easing, with expectations of two more rate cuts this year, bringing the cash rate to 3.35% before a prolonged pause [1][3] - Following the RBA's decision, the Australian dollar surged, and the three-year government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.42% [1] Group 2 - The RBA stated it could wait for more information to confirm inflation is on a sustainable path to 2.5%, and that monetary policy is positioned to respond decisively to international dynamics affecting the economy [3] - Since the RBA's last meeting, monthly inflation in Australia has slowed to near the bottom of the 2-3% range, with weak household spending and prevailing pessimism in consumer confidence surveys [3] - The uncertainty from U.S. trade policies, particularly President Trump's tariff threats, has heightened the RBA's cautious stance [3][4] Group 3 - Australia's exposure to U.S. tariffs is relatively low at 10%, but the country has been affected by industry-specific tariffs on steel and aluminum [4] - According to the Australian Productivity Commission, proposed U.S. tariff adjustments could have a small positive impact on the local economy, potentially increasing actual GDP by 0.37% [4] - However, growing economic uncertainty is expected to slow global economic activity, household consumption, and business investment, particularly affecting irreversible investment decisions by businesses [4]

Group 1 - The dollar has experienced its worst first half since the Nixon era, with a 10.7% decline against global peers as of June [1] - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include policy unpredictability, rising debt and deficits, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The dollar's downward trend began in mid-January and has shown limited signs of recovery since then [1] Group 2 - A weaker dollar can benefit the stock market, particularly for companies in the S&P 500 that derive over 40% of their revenue from international sales [2] - Concerns are growing about the potential end of "American exceptionalism" and "dollar hegemony," with U.S. public debt nearing $30 trillion and projected deficits approaching $2 trillion by 2025 [2] - Central banks are increasing gold purchases as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, with global purchases reaching 24 tons per month [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts could exert further downward pressure on the dollar, although the effects of such policy changes may be unpredictable [3] - Some analysts believe the dollar's decline may not be permanent, citing recent stock market rebounds as a sign of renewed confidence in U.S. assets [4][5] - Concerns regarding the dollar's role in global trade and finance may be overstated, as it remains a cornerstone of the global financial system [5]

Core Insights - The Turkish jewelry industry is facing a significant challenge with an estimated $500 billion worth of gold held privately in households, which is not circulating in the economy [2][3] - The lack of trust in the local currency and financial institutions has led to a proposal for establishing a "gold bank" to integrate private gold into the economic system [3] - The Turkish government is grappling with severe gold smuggling issues exacerbated by import quota policies, leading to a supply shortage [2][4] Gold Holdings and Economic Impact - Mustafa Atayık estimates that Turkish households hold approximately 5,000 tons of gold, valued at around $500 billion based on a price of $10.7 million per ton [3] - The establishment of a "gold bank" is proposed to standardize and regulate gold transactions, allowing for the integration of household gold into the formal economy [3] - Currently, less than half of the gold imported into Turkey is utilized in the jewelry sector, with only about 40% to 50% of imported gold being used [3] Smuggling and Domestic Demand - The demand for gold in Turkey has surged due to prolonged currency devaluation and high inflation, leading to a significant increase in gold smuggling [4] - In 2024, Turkish security forces have already seized approximately 350 kilograms of smuggled gold, surpassing 60% of the total seized in 2023 [4] - Local gold prices are trading at a premium of 7% over international spot prices, attracting speculation and organized crime [4] Government Policies and Market Response - The Turkish government's import quota system aimed at reducing the current account deficit has intensified supply constraints and increased local gold price premiums [6] - The Turkish Mint is operating overtime to meet the soaring domestic demand, with daily production increasing to 700-800 kilograms [6] - Despite the increased production, the local market remains unable to meet demand, leading to a significant contradiction between government import restrictions and rising domestic needs [6]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 在马斯克周末扬言要建立美国第三政党"美国党"后，特斯拉(TSLA.O)股价周一暴跌近7%，这位全球首 富的净资产一天内蒸发约150亿美元。投资者担心其公司可能因与特朗普的冲突而失去联邦补贴，进而 面临更多阻碍。 组建政党只是马斯克与特朗普之间公开不和的又一动作。马斯克作为特斯拉和SpaceX等公司的CEO， 曾在2024年总统大选期间至少向特朗普阵营捐赠了2.77亿美元。 马斯克成立"美国党"被一些观察家视为将公众不满转化为政治资本的尝试。据悉他已经与美籍华裔政治 人物杨安泽就组党事宜进行了接触。杨安泽是"前进党"创始人，曾竞选美国总统。 虽然"美国党"可能仍将影响美国的政治动态，但它对投资者情绪的直接影响无疑是负面的。目前，市场 信息很明确：利益相关者更希望这位世界首富避开国会山，将注意力重新放在工厂车间。 彭博亿万富翁指数显示，仅一天时间，马斯克的个人净资产就缩水了150亿美元，几乎相当于特斯拉竞 争对手Rivian的总市值。 而根据福布斯的估计，随着特斯拉市值的下跌，马斯克的个人财富目前为3910亿美元，低于前一天的 4050亿美元。尽管有所下降 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. will provide more weapons to Ukraine, primarily defensive ones, in response to the ongoing conflict and heavy losses faced by Ukrainian forces [2][3] - Trump emphasized the need for Ukraine to protect itself and mentioned that the U.S. must ensure its own military stockpiles are sufficient while supporting Ukraine [2][4] - The Pentagon's recent pause in weapon shipments to Ukraine was due to a review of U.S. military stockpiles and the need to assess potential threats, which has raised concerns among Ukraine's supporters [4][5] Group 2 - The halted military supplies include critical air defense systems such as the Patriot missile system and NASAMS, which are urgently needed by Ukraine to counter Russian attacks [4] - There is significant tension between Ukraine's demand for air defense weapons and the U.S. military's procurement capabilities, complicating the situation for U.S. defense officials [4] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the U.S. has provided hundreds of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, despite some skepticism from Trump's allies regarding continued support [5]

当被卡尔森问及以色列是否曾试图杀害他时，佩泽希齐扬回答说："他们确实试过，是的，他们也采取 了相应行动，但他们失败了。" 佩泽希齐扬在美国保守派媒体人塔克·卡尔森的视频采访中提出了这一说法，期间他还暗示，伊朗对与 美国就核计划问题重新展开外交持开放态度。 他说，暗杀企图发生在他正在一场会议中"讨论前进方向"之时，并暗示以色列军队得到了"间谍的情 报"。 伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，以色列曾在上个月为期12天的两国战争中试图暗杀他。 佩泽希齐扬没有指责华盛顿参与了所谓的暗杀企图，他也不排除与美国进行新的谈判，但对谈判前景表 示怀疑。在战争爆发前，德黑兰已就其核计划的未来与华盛顿进行了五轮间接谈判。第六轮原定于以色 列袭击后不久在阿曼开始。 "与美国重启会谈没有问题，"佩泽希齐扬告诉卡尔森，但他补充说："我们怎么能再次信任美国？…… 我们如何能确定，在谈判进行到一半时，以色列政权不会再次被允许攻击我们？" 尽管以色列和美国的打击对伊朗的军事和政权造成了严重打击，但关于它们对德黑兰核计划的挫败程 度，一直存在相互矛盾的说法。 虽然特朗普声称该计划已被"摧毁"，但联合国核监督机构的负责人上个月表示，伊朗可能"在几个月 内 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve cannot assume that its benchmark interest rate will not drop to zero again in the future, with a 9% probability of hitting the "zero lower bound" within the next seven years [1] - Current interest rate uncertainty is a significant factor contributing to this risk, with expectations for future rates remaining high compared to the past decade [1] - The analysis is based on interest rate derivatives linked to short-term key rate expectations, such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate [1] Group 2 - There is a 1% probability that interest rates will return to zero within the next two years, following the Fed's previous rate cuts during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Since March 2022, the Fed has raised the federal funds rate target range to 5.25% to 5.5% in response to high inflation, moving significantly away from the zero lower bound [2] - Discussions are ongoing regarding the timing of potential rate cuts and the level of the terminal rate, with recent comments indicating frustration from the President regarding the Fed's current policy stance [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs economists now expect the Fed to potentially cut rates in September, three months earlier than previously predicted, due to lower-than-expected impacts from tariff policies and signs of a slowing job market [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is estimated to be slightly above 50%, with expectations for cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [3] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the terminal federal funds rate down to 3% to 3.25%, indicating a shift in expectations while maintaining that the economy could still achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation [3]