对于北京时间周四凌晨美联储的利率决议，投资者的核心关注点将是"是否有政治压力影响美联储决策 过程"的迹象。 帕夫利克认为，当前美国经济并不需要降息，但他希望美联储本周启动降息——因为利率下调通常需要 时间才能传导至经济，这或有助于美国在明年避免经济放缓。 "现在就该着手应对，以免日后演变成更大问题，"帕夫利克说。但对于鲍威尔的新闻发布会，美联储的 独立性"将是核心焦点"。 市场对美联储政策前景的反应 据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，周二市场预期美联储今年将累计降息75个 基点，且其短期政策利率明年年底将降至2.75%-3%区间，较当前水平低150个基点。 会议前夕市场情绪紧张，尽管投资者对美联储在暂停近9个月后重启降息持欢迎态度，但标普500指数 （SPX）、道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）和纳斯达克综合指数（COMP）仍在历史高位附近震荡，难以 明确方向。 股市看涨逻辑包括：关税引发的通胀终将是一次性冲击、人工智能（AI）领域的巨额支出将支撑股市 持续走高，以及美联储将实现经济"软着陆"。 "通常情况下，当前局面下不该考虑降息，"法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）首席美 ...

该法案由亚利桑那州参议员鲁本·加列戈（Ruben Gallego）提出，并有多名民主党参议员联署。法案将 禁止美联储官员同时担任另一项由总统任命的职务，即便该官员已从另一职位休假（如米兰从白宫经济 顾问委员会主席一职），也明确禁止这种双重任职行为。 白宫官员斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）宣誓就任美联储理事数小时后，民主党人于周二在参议院提交 一项法案，旨在更明确地划分白宫与美联储之间的权力边界。 "不受政治异想天开影响的独立的美联储，是我国货币政策的基石，"加列戈在声明中表示，"米兰先生 已获得充分机会做正确的事——辞去白宫职务，但他拒绝了。" 该法案恐难成为法律，因其需在共和党控制的国会获得通过，并得到特朗普的签署。 周一晚间，米兰以48票赞成、47票反对的投票结果（投票基本按党派立场划分）获参议院确认，成为美 联储最新理事。随后他迅速宣誓就职，加入美东时间周二上午启动的美联储政策会议，预计在周三会议 结束时，美联储12人政策委员会将以多数票通过今年首次降息。 投资者热切关注，在这场市场普遍预期至少降息25个基点的会议上，米兰是否会支持特朗普提出的更大 幅度降息的要求。特朗普周一在社交媒体上发文 ...

看美联储,到 ( ) 金十数据 2025-09-17制图 美联储9月票委名单 终于定了 谁将投下反对票 ? 随着特朗普新提名的理事米兰正式登场,美联储9月会 降息节奏和力度的博弈。米兰的立场比所有人都更 次性降息50个基点。还有哪些官员可能反对降息25个 注:以下投票预测基于美联储官员近期表态作出,并不代表最终投票结果 大鸽派加入 | 只需分 ·米 哈佛大学经济学博士、特朗普第一任期担任财. 关键表态 ·将根据分析和对经济长期管理的 ·美联储的独立性对经济至关重要 ·美国商品通胀尚未偏离全球趋 支持降息50个基 9目投票预测 · 除非就业明显转弱,否则不需要降息超过25个基点 ·未来三到六个月将多次降息,降息速度取决于数据 支持降息25个基点 9月投票预测 美联储理事 关键表态 · 没有理由被解雇,也不会辞职 ·特朗普以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为由的解雇别有用心 9月投票预测 ) 支持降息25个基点或反对降息 具厂 /波士顿联储主席 关键表态 ·9月会议将实时决策,目前迈 ·劳动力市场可能正在恶化, 官 44 画家 鲍威尔 /美联储理事, 主席 37 E DS 真T 美键表态 美键表态 ·政策利率现在比一年前更加接近 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America suggests that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected, gold will emerge as the biggest winner, with a projected price of $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Despite an inflation rate of 2.9% in August, the Federal Reserve is preparing to lower funding costs [1] - Historical data shows that gold prices have never declined when the Federal Reserve loosens monetary policy amid inflation rates above 2% [1] - The annual return rate of gold during "inflationary easing" periods has averaged around 13% [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - Gold futures have already risen over 40% since the beginning of 2025, with prices surpassing $3,700 recently [1] - The demand for gold from central banks is strong, with reserves exceeding U.S. Treasury holdings [1] - The dollar has depreciated over 10% against a basket of major trading partner currencies since 2025 [1] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - There is a strong investment demand for gold, highlighting its appeal as a hedge and anchor in investment portfolios [1] - Market sentiment appears crowded, making gold susceptible to changes in Federal Reserve policy or market expectations [2] - The Bank of America team anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower rates this week but warns that the path for future rate cuts may not be smooth [2] Group 4: Inflation Outlook - The preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is expected to remain above 3% in the first half of next year, significantly higher than the 2% target [2] - This inflation backdrop may limit the extent and speed of future rate cuts by policymakers [2] - The Bank of America maintains that gold remains one of the strongest hedging tools against persistent inflation and policy missteps, with the $4,000 target unchanged [2]

Economic Indicators - US retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, surpassing the forecast of 0.2% and the previous value of 0.5% [11] - The US dollar index fell to its lowest level in over 10 weeks, closing down 0.71% at 96.65 [2][5] - The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.0350%, while the 2-year yield closed at 3.5120% [2] Commodity Markets - Spot gold first broke through $3700 per ounce, closing up 0.29% at $3689.46 per ounce [2][5] - WTI crude oil rose by 2.01%, closing at $64.54 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.51%, closing at $68.50 per barrel [2][5] Stock Markets - US stock indices showed mixed results ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the Dow Jones down 0.27%, S&P 500 down 0.13%, and Nasdaq down 0.07% [3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.03% at 26438.51 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.56% [3] - A-shares saw collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.45%, and ChiNext Index up 0.68% [4] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the automotive parts and tourism sectors showed strong performance, while internet healthcare stocks declined [3] - In the A-share market, robotics stocks surged, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, while the pork sector experienced significant adjustments [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary defended a special arrangement for Milan, allowing him to temporarily leave his White House position while serving on the Federal Reserve Board [1] - The Senate approved Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board, and he will participate in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [1] - Analysts suggest that two other Fed governors, Bowman and Waller, may vote against maintaining interest rates in the upcoming September meeting due to weaker-than-expected labor market data [1] Group 2 - Democrats criticized the temporary leave arrangement as absurd and a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially following Trump's actions to dismiss a Fed governor [2] - Trump may nominate Milan for a full 14-year term in February, or he could choose another candidate [2] - If Trump does not select another candidate, Milan could potentially remain indefinitely [3] Group 3 - The Treasury Secretary had a positive meeting with potential candidate Brad for the Fed Chair position, highlighting his expertise in monetary policy and deep understanding of the Federal Reserve [3] - Brad expressed interest in the Fed Chair position, emphasizing the importance of defending the dollar's status as a reserve currency and maintaining low and stable inflation [3]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high, driven by market optimism that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Investors expect the Fed to prefer a 25 basis point cut over a 50 basis point cut to retain future flexibility, as indicated by the phrase "the more bullets you fire, the faster you run out" [1] - Goldman Sachs referred to the current market situation as the "Goldilocks scenario peak," supported by Oracle's positive cloud revenue revision and a broader AI sector boost [1] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be tense, with Powell and Governor Cook facing accusations from the Trump administration, which may influence their decision-making [2] - Market volatility is anticipated following Powell's statements and Q&A session, with a focus on the Fed's updated macroeconomic forecasts and interest rate path [3] - The dollar has declined significantly, with a 0.87% drop in the past month and a 10.56% decrease year-to-date, attributed to expectations of rate cuts and actions by the Trump administration [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve has sparked discussions about a potential "third mandate" focusing on "moderate long-term interest rates," which could disrupt existing investment strategies and challenge the Fed's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Mandate - The Federal Reserve has traditionally operated under a "dual mandate" of price stability and full employment, a principle reiterated by past and current chairpersons [1]. - Miran's reference to a "third mandate" has raised concerns among market analysts about the implications for monetary policy and long-term interest rates [1][2]. - The concept of a "third mandate" is seen as a potential tool for the Trump administration to influence long-term Treasury yields, thereby undermining the Fed's historical independence [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Strategies - Analysts are cautious about the implications of a potential policy shift, with some investors already adjusting their strategies to account for possible government intervention in long-term rates [2][3]. - Strategies being discussed include the issuance of more short-term Treasuries and increased long-term Treasury buybacks, as well as the possibility of the Fed restarting quantitative easing (QE) [3][4]. - The expectation of government intervention has increased the risks associated with shorting long-term Treasuries, as any loss of Fed independence could lead to significant market disruptions [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical precedents for government intervention in long-term rates include actions taken during World War II and the 2008 financial crisis, where the Fed employed various strategies to manage long-term yields [6]. - Current discussions around the "third mandate" are viewed as lacking justification, as the economy is not in a state of crisis that would typically warrant such measures [6][7]. - The ambiguity surrounding the definition of "moderate long-term interest rates" raises concerns about its potential use to justify various policy actions [7]. Group 4: Debt and Fiscal Implications - The U.S. national debt has reached $37.4 trillion, with rising government deficits necessitating lower interest rates to manage financing costs [8]. - The current fiscal strategy involves increasing short-term debt issuance while maintaining stable long-term debt levels, reflecting a shift in how the government approaches debt management [8]. - The administration's willingness to accept higher inflation in pursuit of lower long-term rates indicates a strategic pivot in fiscal policy [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian state oil pipeline company Transneft has warned oil producers about potential production cuts due to drone attacks on key export ports and refineries in Ukraine, leading to a rise in international crude oil prices [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Drone Attacks - Since August, Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy assets to disrupt military operations and reduce Kremlin revenue, which heavily relies on oil and gas income [3]. - Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted at least 10 refineries, reducing Russian refining capacity by nearly 20% and damaging major Baltic ports Ust-Luga and Primorsk [3][4]. - The attacks on Primorsk, which has a daily export capacity exceeding 1 million barrels, have temporarily halted operations, impacting over 10% of Russia's total oil production [6][7]. Group 2: Transneft's Response - Transneft has restricted oil companies' ability to store oil in its pipeline system, indicating potential production cuts if infrastructure is further damaged [4][5]. - The company has warned producers that they may have to accept lower oil volumes if damage continues, which could lead to a reduction in Russia's oil output, accounting for 9% of global production [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The drone attacks are seen as a rapid form of sanctions against Russia, with Western sanctions already targeting the oil and gas sector [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, Russia has shifted much of its oil exports to Asia, with India and China being major buyers, which may mitigate the impact of production cuts [5]. - Analysts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have noted that Russia's ability to increase oil production is now threatened due to limited storage capacity and refinery shutdowns, although demand from Asian buyers may keep production declines moderate [8].

Core Insights - Despite ongoing concerns about economic slowdown, labor market issues, and tariff increases, U.S. consumer spending remained stable in August, with retail sales rising by 0.6% month-over-month, matching the revised figure for July and significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 0.2% growth [1][4]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In August, 9 out of 13 retail categories in the U.S. reported sales growth, with online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores leading the way, likely driven by back-to-school shopping demand [4]. - Although auto sales also increased, the growth rate was relatively slower compared to other categories [4]. - The report indicates that despite multiple pressures such as tariffs raising prices, low consumer confidence, and signs of labor market fatigue, U.S. consumers continued to spend [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Wage growth has cooled, but most workers still see wage increases outpacing inflation, with high-income groups benefiting from stock market gains [4]. - Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, noted that consumer activity, particularly retail sales, is steadily progressing without significant acceleration or deceleration, with high-income households disproportionately driving overall consumption [4]. - Analysts suggest that part of the strong retail sales data may be attributed to rising prices due to tariffs rather than an actual increase in sales volume [4]. Group 3: Economic Concerns and Consumer Sentiment - Sam Bullard, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, stated that while consumer spending shows inherent resilience, overall growth is slowing, and concerns about the labor market are increasing, which may lead to a slowdown in consumption growth for the remainder of the year [5]. - A survey from the New York Fed indicated that inflation-adjusted household spending in August fell to its lowest level in nearly four and a half years, although more consumers are still opting to purchase electronics, appliances, furniture, and engage in home repairs or vacations [5][6]. - Recent months have seen a rise in pessimism regarding the economic outlook, leading employers to halt hiring [6].