Piper Sandler的Michael Kantrowitz说，"我们以前见过股市和失业率一同上涨。"他指出了1950年代、 1960年代和1990年代初的过往周期，当时疲软的就业数据拉低了利率，并助推了股市的反弹。 高盛策略师David Kostin直言不讳地表示："在所有其他条件相同的情况下，降温的劳动力市场是企业利 润的顺风，因为工资——大多数公司资产负债表上最大的项目——正在减速。" 标普500指数在招聘降温、失业率上升的情况下，却不断创下历史新高，摩根大通将此称为"失业式扩张 的奇特案例"。 这背后的押注逻辑很简单：疲软的就业数据促使美联储降息，更低的利率提升了估值，而放缓的工资增 长则增加了企业利润率。 这听起来可能违反直觉，失业率上升和股市上涨通常不会同时发生，但这并非没有先例。 对年轻的美国人来说，情况看起来甚至更惨淡。8月份，16至24岁工人的失业率跃升至10.5%，这是自 疫情以来的首次两位数读数，而应届大学毕业生的失业率现在也比整体劳动力更高，这与疫情前的常态 形成了鲜明对比。 问题就在于此。股市上涨是因为投资者预期美联储会降息，而不是因为经济基础稳固。在某个时刻，这 种逻辑会开始显 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached an all-time high due to market expectations of the Federal Reserve restarting its rate-cutting cycle, with spot gold hitting $3,690 per ounce [1] - Analysts and industry experts indicate that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue until the end of the year, with a potential healthy correction before surpassing $4,000 per ounce in 2026 [3][4] - The demand for gold is being driven by factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve easing, ongoing geopolitical tensions, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and significant purchases by central banks [3] Group 2 - Gold prices have increased approximately 40% this year, with a projected 27% increase in 2024, and the bullish trend is expected to persist until 2026 due to low interest rates and strong investment demand [4] - Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut following its monetary policy meeting on September 17, influenced by pressure from President Trump [4] - Silver prices have also surged, reaching a 14-year high of $42.768 per ounce, supported by strong physical demand and investor interest [5][6]

Group 1 - The EU is delaying the submission of its latest round of sanctions against Russia, influenced by US President Trump's demands for stronger measures [1] - The G7 is currently formulating a new sanctions proposal aimed at countries purchasing Russian oil, with a target to finalize the text within two weeks [1][2] - The EU is considering sanctions against companies facilitating Russian oil trade, despite the challenges posed by member states' reliance on these exports [2] Group 2 - The EU has postponed the timeline for phasing out Russian natural gas to after 2027, providing temporary exemptions for countries like Hungary and Slovakia regarding oil sanctions [2] - Following the sanctions that took effect in 2022, the share of Russian crude oil in EU imports dropped from 27% before the conflict to around 3% [2] - The proposed 19th round of sanctions may target approximately six Russian banks and energy companies, as well as payment systems, cryptocurrency exchanges, and further restrictions on oil trade [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights escalating tensions between Russia and NATO, particularly regarding the use of drones in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with warnings from Russian officials about potential war if NATO countries engage militarily against Russian drones [2][4]. Group 1: Russian Warnings - Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, issued a stern warning that NATO's actions against Russian drones over Ukraine could lead to a state of war between Russia and NATO [2]. - Medvedev criticized the idea of establishing a "no-fly zone" over Ukraine, labeling it a provocative notion that would escalate the conflict [2][3]. - The Russian government denied accusations of intentionally sending drones into Polish and Romanian airspace, claiming they were "decoy" drones amid a broader drone campaign targeting Ukraine [2]. Group 2: NATO's Involvement - The Romanian military reported tracking two Russian drones that entered its airspace, prompting F-16 fighter jets to scramble, although no engagement occurred [2]. - Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that NATO is effectively at war with Russia, asserting that NATO's support for Ukraine constitutes direct involvement in the conflict [4]. - Medvedev also commented on the aggressive behavior of smaller nations' leaders, specifically targeting the Estonian Defense Minister's visit to Ukraine [3]. Group 3: Cross-Border Attacks - Ukraine continues to conduct cross-border drone attacks against Russian territory, resulting in civilian casualties, including the deaths of two women in Belgorod region [3]. - Additional reports indicated injuries and property damage from these attacks, highlighting the ongoing violence in the region [4].

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 56 contracts rising and 23 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] - Significant price increases were observed in coking coal (+5.84%), coke (+4.24%), and glass (+3.69%), driven by supply and demand dynamics [5][6] - Conversely, commodities like LPG and red dates experienced notable declines, suggesting increased bearish pressure or negative fundamental factors [6] Capital Flow - The highest capital inflows were seen in coking coal (1.163 billion), followed by rapeseed oil (1.008 billion) and 30-year government bonds (462 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - Major capital outflows were recorded in the CSI 300 (-2.448 billion) and Shanghai Composite 50 (-1.230 billion), reflecting a withdrawal of funds from these indices [8] Open Interest Changes - Significant increases in open interest were noted in rapeseed oil (+18.25%) and eggs (+10.72%), suggesting new capital entering these markets and heightened trading activity [10] - Conversely, substantial decreases in open interest were observed in styrene (-15.25%) and crude oil (-18.84%), indicating potential exits of major funds from these commodities [10] Key Events - OPEC+ is set to discuss capacity updates in a meeting scheduled for September 18-19, aiming to establish a mechanism for assessing each member's maximum sustainable oil production capacity [11] - Domestic soybean crushing volumes have rebounded, with the average operating rate of oil mills reaching 64.99%, indicating strong processing activity [12] Future Outlook - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of at least three rate cuts before the end of 2025, which could influence commodity prices positively [16] - The upcoming release of initial jobless claims data is expected to provide further insights into the labor market, which may impact Fed policy decisions [17] Commodity-Specific Insights - The main contract for polysilicon has seen a slight increase, but ongoing inventory pressures and price constraints remain a concern [19] - The glass market is expected to continue its short-term upward trend, with current supply-demand dynamics and policy expectations playing a crucial role [20] - Coking coal prices are anticipated to gradually rise, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing prices and managing supply [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is approaching a four-year high against the dollar as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, highlighting a divergence in policy trajectories between the Fed and the European Central Bank [1][3]. Group 1: Euro Performance - The euro to dollar exchange rate has risen to its highest level since July 3, nearing the 1.18 mark, with an increase of nearly 14% in 2025, potentially marking the best nine-month performance on record [1]. - A breakthrough of the July high of 1.1829 could signify the strongest level since September 2021, with options markets indicating a potential move towards the significant 1.20 level [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Demand for the euro is supported by market expectations that the Fed will enter a loosening cycle while the ECB will refrain from further rate cuts, with three anticipated 25 basis point cuts by the Fed by year-end enhancing the euro's appeal [3]. - The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that net long positions in the euro have reached their highest level since early July, indicating bullish sentiment [5]. Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the current optimism may be short-lived if the Fed's stance is less dovish than expected, which could lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields and diminish the euro's attractiveness [6]. - If the Fed's communication lacks dovish signals, it may lead to a liquidation of euro long positions, increasing selling pressure [6]. - Conversely, if the Fed's stance is more dovish than anticipated, it could lead to a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, allowing the euro to potentially enter a broader upward trend above the 1.20 target [6].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of the Federal Reserve restarting its interest rate cut cycle has reversed the market's bearish sentiment towards U.S. Treasuries, leading to their top performance among major sovereign bonds globally [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Performance - In 2025, U.S. Treasuries are projected to yield a return of 5.8%, the best performance among the 15 largest bond markets globally [1] - The yield advantage of U.S. Treasuries over other global sovereign bonds has narrowed from over 200 basis points in January to 120 basis points [2][5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by approximately 50 basis points this year, currently hovering near a five-month low [2] Group 2: Global Context - Other major markets, including Japan, the UK, and France, are facing multiple fiscal and political challenges, negatively impacting their bond market sentiment [1][6] - In contrast, U.S. Treasuries are benefiting from weak employment data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which are currently dominating market trends [6] Group 3: Currency Impact - When accounting for currency fluctuations, U.S. Treasuries' performance appears less favorable, with Italian bonds showing a return of 16% and Spanish bonds at 15% for 2025 [7] - The depreciation of the dollar has provided additional returns for investors in non-dollar-denominated assets [7] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Some investment firms, such as BlackRock, are favoring European and UK bonds over U.S. Treasuries from a relative value perspective [10] - The anticipated new round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve may further support U.S. Treasuries, potentially offsetting the negative impact of a weaker dollar [10]

Group 1 - OPEC+ representatives will meet in Vienna to discuss updating the capacity estimation procedures for member countries, aiming to establish a new production baseline and set production targets for 2027 [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the maximum sustainable capacity of OPEC+ and Mexico is 47.9 million barrels per day, with OPEC+ production in August increasing by 509,000 barrels per day to 42.4 million barrels per day [1] - The initial plan to implement a new production baseline by 2025 has been delayed to 2026 and then to 2027 due to disagreements over the assessment process among member countries [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production since April, fully reversing the initial 2.5 million barrels per day cut by September, which represents about 2.4% of global demand [2] - The latest production policy for October aims to continue this trend by lifting a second batch of production cuts, ahead of the original schedule by more than a year [2] - Compliance issues complicate the situation, as countries like Kazakhstan, Iraq, and the UAE have exceeded their quotas, prompting Saudi Arabia to advocate for stricter adherence to regulations [2]

Group 1 - Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, has raised alarms about the high probability of a U.S. recession, now estimated at 48% for the next 12 months [1] - Zandi describes the U.S. economy as being on the "precipice of recession," indicating a critical economic situation [1] - Historical data suggests that a recession probability reaching such a high level has never occurred without leading to an actual recession [1] Group 2 - The decline in residential building permits is highlighted as a significant indicator of potential recession, with current levels nearing those seen during the pandemic [3] - Zandi notes that the upcoming residential building permit data, to be released on September 17, will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [3] - Even if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates as expected, Zandi warns that this may not be sufficient to prevent an economic recession [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift towards a fiscal-led era in the U.S. economy, driven by ongoing political pressures on the Federal Reserve and rising inflation due to tariffs, which may lead to gold replacing the dollar as the primary store of value [1][4]. Group 1: Economic and Market Dynamics - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 31.38% as of the end of August, marking its best performance since 1979, positioning it as one of the strongest asset classes for the year [1]. - The U.S. government's approach to the Federal Reserve is a significant factor in gold's recent rise and the dollar's continued weakness [1][2]. - The labor market data indicates a more severe economic slowdown than expected, while inflation data remains complex and concerning [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence and Political Pressure - The struggle for control over the Federal Reserve has significant implications for gold and the dollar, with President Trump’s actions raising unprecedented legal and constitutional questions regarding presidential power and central bank independence [2][3]. - The dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member due to alleged mortgage fraud has sparked concerns about the independence of the Fed, which has historically not seen such dismissals since its establishment in 1913 [2][3]. - The current political climate may lead to a more politicized Federal Reserve, potentially transforming it into a tool for the White House [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Gold Demand - Inflation risks are increasingly driven by monetary and fiscal policies rather than demand, which is favorable for gold [2]. - The anticipated rise in commodity costs due to tariffs is expected to increase inflationary pressures, further boosting gold demand as a hedge against purchasing power erosion [3][4]. - The potential for negative real interest rates, driven by fiscal policies and regulatory easing, may enhance gold's appeal as a store of value [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Global Financial System - The article suggests that the current dollar-centric global financial system may become unsustainable, with a shift towards gold as a neutral reserve asset [4][6]. - The increasing trust in gold over fiat currencies is evidenced by central banks accumulating gold reserves, highlighting its role as a stable alternative in a changing monetary landscape [4][5]. - The anticipated economic policies, including the "Great and Beautiful" Act and tax cuts, are expected to stimulate the economy, further supporting gold's upward trajectory [5][6].