黄仁勋启动自去年9月以来首次抛售 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）上周开始抛售股票，这是他自去年9月以来的首次抛售。英伟达表示，黄仁勋的所有抛 售均属于3月预先安排的交易计划，该计划设定了抛售触发的价格和日期。黄仁勋仍持有英伟达的绝大多数股份。 AI播客：换个方式听播客 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 英伟达（NVDA）内部人士在过去12个月内已抛售超过10亿美元的公司股票，尤其是近期交易激增，仅本月内就有超过5亿美元的 股票被抛售，期间这家总部位于加州的芯片设计公司股价攀升至历史新高。 投资者纷纷重新涌入该股，使其成为全球市值最高的公司，因他们押注用于人工智能应用的芯片需求将大幅增长。在此轮股价上 涨之前，英伟达经历了动荡的一年：全球贸易紧张局势以及中国人工智能领域的突破曾威胁其产品需求。 英伟达全球现场运营执行副总裁杰伊·普里（Jay Puri）——这位在公司工作了20年的老将曾代表黄仁勋前往中国会见官员——上周 三抛售了价值约2500万美元的股票。 另外两位董事会成员滕奇·考克斯（Tench Coxe）和布鲁克·西韦尔（Brooke Seawell）也开始抛售：考克斯于6月9日抛售约1 ...

Group 1 - The market is undergoing a transformation phase, driven by deep changes in macroeconomic functions, with the Federal Reserve acting as a "shock absorber" despite persistent inflation data [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will be a key catalyst, forecasting an addition of 85,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 113,000 [1] - Market liquidity is becoming the dominant force, replacing fundamentals, indicating that the market has become a policy tool [1] Group 2 - Institutional clients are cautious about chasing U.S. stocks due to weak corporate earnings outlook, the disappearance of "put options" from the Federal Reserve, and turmoil in the bond market [2] - The U.S. may enter a liquidity-driven cycle, while Europe relies on fiscal stimulus, with a preference for excess liquidity over government balance sheets [2] - In sector selection, cyclical industries in the U.S. (industrial, materials) are favored over bank stocks, which need a steepening yield curve and real growth to benefit [2] Group 3 - Stocks are fundamentally inflation assets, with a preference for the S&P 500 index to rise alongside U.S. Treasury yields [3] - The correlation between stocks and Treasury yields suggests a low acceptance of the "new cycle" narrative, with most trades linked to yield expansion and stock declines [3] - Macro factors have returned, leading to increased volatility, but asset prices may not move in a single direction, with a baseline scenario of rising Treasury yields and stock prices [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates is becoming increasingly clear, influenced by several key factors [1] - The Fed's policy stance is subtly shifting, with multiple officials signaling a potential rate cut, particularly in September [1] - Trade policy uncertainty has significantly decreased, with the impact of tariffs on the economy being less than previously expected, supporting inflation stability [1] - The labor market is showing signs of a comprehensive slowdown, with rising unemployment claims and a declining employment-population ratio, reinforcing expectations for a policy shift [1] - The market is beginning to price in the potential impact of leadership changes at the Fed, reflected in unusual fluctuations in long-term interest rates [1] Group 2 - Current market expectations suggest a cumulative rate cut of 63 basis points by year-end, with a total adjustment of 130 basis points for terminal rates [2] - The financial conditions index (FCI) has eased by 140 basis points since April, providing approximately 1.4 percentage points of additional support for economic growth [2] - A "loose cycle" is forming between the stock and foreign exchange markets, with significant implications for the balance of financial conditions [2] - The impact of preemptive fiscal stimulus measures is expected to last until 2026, contributing an estimated 0.9 percentage points to GDP [2] Group 3 - While short-term monetary policy may support economic growth, long-term risks of macroeconomic imbalance may increase [3] - The trading team suggests a phased strategy for investors, capitalizing on short-term opportunities while being cautious of yield rebound risks later in the year [3] - Key uncertainties include geopolitical developments in the Middle East, potential market overreactions to Fed leadership changes, and risks associated with the monetization of fiscal deficits [3]

美国总统特朗普暗示可能对日本汽车维持25%的关税，此时两国间的谈判仍在继续，而距离一系列更高 额的关税在未达成贸易协议的情况下生效，只剩下一周多的时间。 特朗普在上周日播出的一档福克斯新闻采访中说，"他们不买我们的车，对吧？但我们却让数以百万计 的他们的汽车进入美国。这不公平。现在，我们有石油。他们可以买很多石油。他们也可以买很多其他 东西，"他指的是日本可能采取的减少与美国贸易逆差的方式。 这些评论表明，双方距离达成协议仍有一定距离，并凸显了特朗普可能会坚持对汽车征收25%关税的风 险。 这次采访播出前，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正与美国商务部长卢特尼克进行了又一轮会谈。赤泽亮 正飞越大半个地球到华盛顿进行面对面会谈，虽然他们最初是当面会晤，但随后的两次讨论是通过电话 进行的。 在特朗普于上周五录制的采访播出后，赤泽亮正通过社交媒体重申，双边会谈仍在进行中。 "日美谈判正处于关键阶段，我们将继续进行真诚和认真的讨论，"他在一篇帖子中说。他补充说，在特 朗普上周五接受采访后，双方同意本周继续会谈。 日本坚持将汽车和其他项目的行业性关税纳入更广泛的、针对特定国家的征税谈判中，后者的税率将于 7月9日上调。赤泽亮 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean stock market has experienced a significant rise this year, driven primarily by the surge in digital assets linked to the Korean won, with the KOSPI index up nearly 30% year-to-date [1] - Companies related to the Bank of Korea's digital currency plan, such as Kakao Pay and LG CNS, have seen substantial stock price increases, with Kakao Pay's stock doubling and LG CNS rising nearly 70% [1] - The Kosdaq market has also seen notable gains, with fintech security company Aton's stock soaring 80% and mobile game developer ME2ON's stock tripling due to its subsidiary launching a dollar-pegged stablecoin [1] Group 2 - Despite the bullish market sentiment, the government has yet to announce specific regulatory policies for the won-backed stablecoin, with current trading primarily driven by expectations [2] - The appointment of Kim Yong-beom, a known supporter of digital assets, as chief policy advisor has further boosted market confidence, alongside a proposed bill allowing companies with a minimum capital of only 500 million won to issue won-backed stablecoins [2] - The Bank of Korea has expressed concerns regarding the issuance of stablecoins by non-bank entities, citing potential impacts on capital flows and monetary policy [2] Group 3 - A plan has been proposed to launch a regulatory framework for won-backed stablecoins and to promote the establishment of a spot cryptocurrency ETF by the second half of 2025 [3] - There is a growing divergence in perspectives on stablecoins between South Korea and the United States, with South Korea focusing on payment service innovation through won-backed stablecoins [3] - Tether, a major player in the stablecoin industry, holds over $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting the increasing integration of stablecoins with the global financial system and government securities markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market has achieved its best monthly return since February and the strongest first half performance in five years, despite facing various challenges such as political instability, tariff uncertainties, and credit rating downgrades [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.28%, close to a two-month low, as investors shift focus from the impact of Trump's tax plan to expectations of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Investor sentiment is characterized by a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) regarding potential Fed rate cuts, leading to increased exposure to interest rate risks, including 30-year Treasuries [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Investors previously doubted a July rate cut but now see a 20% chance, with a September cut viewed as highly likely; key indicators such as employment data will influence the Fed's decision [2] - The market's expectations align with the Fed's median forecast of two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, with rates projected to fall to a range of 3.75% to 4% [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial, with expectations of job growth slowing from 139,000 to approximately 129,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% [2] - A weaker non-farm report could create suspense for the July Fed meeting, but the decision may ultimately be postponed to September [3] Group 4: Interest Rate Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts the 10-year Treasury yield will reach 4% by year-end and approach 3% by 2026, while JPMorgan maintains a year-end forecast of 4.35% for the 10-year yield [4][6] - The potential for the Fed to fall behind the curve due to waiting for clearer economic signals is a concern among investors [5]

Group 1 - Canada has withdrawn its digital services tax (DST) on US tech companies like Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. to restart trade negotiations with the US [1] - The DST was set to impose a 3% tax on digital service revenues exceeding 20 million CAD (approximately 14.6 million USD) earned by large tech companies from Canadian users [1] - The withdrawal of the DST is seen as a crucial step to advance negotiations and create jobs for Canadians, according to Canadian Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne [1] Group 2 - The trade relationship between Canada and the US is one of the largest in the world, with over 900 billion USD in goods and services traded last year [2] - Tensions have escalated since Trump's election, with threats of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports and comments suggesting Canada should become the 51st state of the US [2] - In response to these tensions, many Canadians have boycotted US products and avoided traveling to the US [2]

Group 1 - Elon Musk criticized the latest Senate draft of a large-scale tax and spending bill, calling it "crazy" and "devastating," claiming it would increase taxes on various renewable energy projects [1] - The bill is expected to destroy millions of jobs and cause significant strategic damage to the country, according to Musk [1] - The legislation includes a new subsidy for coal used in steel production, which Musk argues undermines future industries while providing handouts to past industries [1] Group 2 - Musk's earlier comments have led to a deterioration in his relationship with Trump, despite previously donating over $250 million to Trump's re-election campaign [2] - Following Musk's initial criticism, Tesla's stock dropped 14% in a single day due to threats of reassessing and potentially revoking government contracts [2] - Musk expressed regret over some of his posts after the public dispute with Trump, but he later supported Trump's immigration policies and moderated his political posts until his recent comments on the Republican bill [2]

Core Viewpoint - The White House is struggling to fulfill its promise of comprehensive global trade reform before the July 9 deadline, with expected agreements likely to be limited framework documents rather than full trade agreements [2][6]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Negotiations - The U.S. government aims to reach agreements with over ten major trading partners before the deadline, but these are expected to be limited in scope [2]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that around 20 countries not reaching agreements by the deadline could continue negotiations but would face higher tariffs [3]. - Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all countries, emphasizing unilateral control over tariff rates [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The mixed signals from the Trump administration are causing market tension, affecting global economic relations [2][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations is creating anxiety among domestic businesses, with previous tariff policies having caused market panic [7]. - A recent poll indicated that 57% of voters are dissatisfied with Trump's handling of trade policy, reflecting public sentiment against the current approach [8]. Group 3: Future Developments - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to release industry survey results that may trigger new tariffs [8]. - Legal challenges to the legitimacy of Trump's tariff powers are ongoing, with a recent court ruling deeming most tariffs illegal [8]. - Despite the chaotic negotiation landscape, some countries are still optimistic about reaching agreements, particularly with India and the EU [7].

Group 1 - President Trump hinted at potentially lifting sanctions on Iran if they maintain peace and demonstrate no further harm [1] - Trump stated that the U.S. has implemented sanctions and considered relaxing them after a ceasefire, but ultimately decided to maintain them [1][2] - Trump claimed that a recent U.S. strike destroyed a key underground facility of Iran's nuclear program, although intelligence suggests the damage may not be as extensive as claimed [2][3] Group 2 - Senator Lindsey Graham suggested that the U.S. should require Iran to recognize Israel as a condition for resuming negotiations [2] - The head of the UN nuclear watchdog indicated that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within months, despite U.S. strikes causing significant damage [2][3] - Preliminary intelligence assessments show that Iran's stockpile of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium remains largely intact [2][3] Group 3 - Officials revealed that Iran's enriched uranium stock was dispersed across multiple locations during the recent attacks, complicating damage assessments [3] - The head of the IAEA emphasized that Iran retains the knowledge and industrial capability to enrich uranium to weapon-grade levels [3] - Trump mentioned that several countries expressed interest in joining the Abraham Accords following the bombing of Iran [3]