Group 1 - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is expected to confirm a weak labor market, with an estimated addition of 75,000 jobs in August, slightly above July's 73,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, marking the highest level since 2021, while average hourly earnings are expected to remain flat month-over-month and slow down year-over-year from 3.9% to 3.7% [1] - An ideal job addition range of 70,000 to 95,000 is suggested to balance investor concerns and support the rationale for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] Group 2 - Wall Street is eager to understand whether the labor market is in a "low hiring, low firing" stagnation or showing signs of genuine deterioration, as historical trends indicate rapid worsening once labor market conditions begin to decline [2] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, but a significantly lower non-farm payroll figure could reignite expectations for a more aggressive rate cut [2] - Standard Chartered notes that the median forecast for job additions is 75,000, with a concentration of predictions between 60,000 and 100,000, suggesting that a figure below 40,000 could lead to pricing in a 50 basis point cut [2] Group 3 - The unemployment rate's expected rise to 4.3% does not indicate a significant spike, and unless job additions are exceptionally weak or the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4%, it may not prompt aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3] - The August employment report is particularly scrutinized due to the recent firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director by Trump, raising concerns about government interference and the credibility of federal economic data [3] - Trump's nomination of E.J. Antoni as the new director may further influence perceptions of labor statistics [3] Group 4 - Recent data highlights increasing employment downside risks, with the ADP report showing only 54,000 job additions in August, significantly below expectations, and initial jobless claims rising to 237,000 [4] - Job openings in July fell to 7.18 million, the lowest in ten months, indicating weak labor demand [4] Group 5 - Federal Reserve officials have adopted a more dovish tone, with New York Fed President Williams noting a "gradual cooling" in the labor market and suggesting that the absence of inflationary pressures may clear the way for rate cuts [5] - Other Fed officials have indicated that a rate cut may be appropriate in the near future, with some suggesting multiple cuts within six months [5] Group 6 - Market expectations for a rate cut have suppressed the dollar, providing support for non-yielding precious metals like gold, although traders are cautious ahead of key data releases [6] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may face resistance around $3,560, with potential for further gains if new highs are reached [6] Group 7 - Concerns arise that the low expectations for the employment report may lead to stronger-than-expected data, which could push interest rates higher and limit the Federal Reserve's rate cut options [7] - Many traders anticipate three rate cuts by the end of the year [7]

Group 1 - Tether is negotiating investments in gold mining, aiming to channel its substantial cryptocurrency profits into the gold market [1][2] - Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, compares gold to "natural Bitcoin," emphasizing the similarities between gold and Bitcoin as stores of value [1] - Tether has accumulated $8.7 billion worth of gold bars in Zurich as collateral for its stablecoin, USDT, which has a market cap of $168 billion [2] Group 2 - Tether Investments acquired a minority stake in Elemental Altus for $105 million and is exploring further royalty transactions [2] - Tether is also in discussions with Terranova Resources regarding gold mining investments, although no deal has been reached [2] - Other companies, like Blue Gold, are attempting to bridge the gap between digital currencies and gold by launching gold-backed digital tokens [3]

Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to confirm a weak labor market, with an anticipated addition of 75,000 jobs in August, slightly above July's 73,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, marking the highest level since 2021, while average hourly earnings are expected to remain flat month-over-month and slow down year-over-year from 3.9% to 3.7% [1] - A "sweet spot" for job additions is identified between 70,000 and 95,000, which could allow stock investors to overlook a weak report if it supports the rationale for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - There is a concern among market participants regarding whether the labor market is in a "low hiring, low firing" stagnation or showing signs of genuine deterioration, as historical trends indicate that labor market declines can accelerate [2] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, but a significantly lower-than-expected non-farm payroll could reignite expectations for a more aggressive cut [2] - Standard Chartered notes that the median forecast for job additions is 75,000, with a concentration of predictions between 60,000 and 100,000, suggesting that a report showing fewer than 40,000 jobs added could lead to pricing in a 50 basis point cut [2] Group 3 - The unemployment rate's expected rise to 4.3% does not indicate a significant risk of a spike unless job additions are exceptionally weak or the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4% [3] - To eliminate the possibility of a September rate cut, non-farm payrolls would need to exceed 130,000, along with an upward revision of previous figures [3] - The recent weak employment data has led to concerns about government interference in economic statistics, highlighted by the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director by President Trump [3] Group 4 - Recent data indicates increasing risks to employment, with the ADP report showing only 54,000 new private sector jobs in August, significantly below expectations, and initial jobless claims rising to 237,000 [4] - Job openings in July fell to 7.18 million, the lowest in ten months, indicating weak labor demand [4] Group 5 - Federal Reserve officials have adopted a more dovish tone, with indications that the labor market is "gradually cooling," and there are no signs of tariffs exacerbating inflation trends [5] - Some officials suggest that a rate cut of around 25 basis points may be appropriate this year, while others warn that continued labor market cooling could necessitate policy changes [5] Group 6 - Market expectations for a rate cut have supported gold prices, with analysts noting potential resistance around $3,560 and a target of $3,600 if new highs are reached [6] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below $3,500, it could indicate a bearish trend, with further declines possible [6] - Economic data surprises, whether positive or negative, could impact stock market performance, with predictions of potential job growth turning negative later in the year [6] Group 7 - Concerns exist that the low expectations for the employment report could lead to stronger-than-expected data, which might push interest rates higher and limit the Federal Reserve's rate cut options [7]

Group 1 - The non-farm payrolls for August are expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth below 100,000 [1] - The market is showing signs of fatigue, with initial comparisons of August data likely shifting focus to revisions of June and July figures [1] - Wall Street anticipates the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, highlighting a weakening labor market [4] Group 2 - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, but this could change if employment improves or inflation worsens [2] - Analysts suggest that adding over 225,000 jobs could lead the Fed to alter its plans, while a disappointing non-farm report may increase bets on rate cuts, potentially even a 50 basis point reduction [2] - Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, with a better-than-expected non-farm report likely refocusing attention on wage-related inflation [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to reinforce market views on Federal Reserve policy and influence short-term interest rate trends [1] - Recent weaker-than-expected economic data has strengthened market bets on a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield retreating from the 5% mark [1] - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on September 16-17 [2] Group 2 - Derivative contracts betting on Federal Reserve policy indicate nearly a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month, with expectations of five total cuts by the end of next year [2] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy changes, is currently around 3.6%, close to its lowest level since May [2] - Market participants are preparing for potential volatility in response to the employment report, with options pricing indicating a balance point of 10 basis points for fluctuations [3] Group 3 - If the employment report is stronger than expected, the U.S. dollar may be boosted, as market sentiment is currently leaning bearish on the dollar [4] - Hedge funds and other speculative investors held short positions against the dollar amounting to approximately $5.6 billion in the week ending August 26 [4] - A strong employment report could indicate a reduction in the Federal Reserve's easing measures for the remainder of the year, potentially supporting the dollar [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [1] - DeepSeek aims to release a new AI agent by the end of the year, designed to perform multi-step operations with minimal user instructions and learn from previous behaviors [1] - NVIDIA plans to launch a new chip named B30A in the Chinese market, which is expected to be six times more powerful than its predecessor H20 and priced at approximately $20,000 [1] Group 2 - The State Council aims to cultivate a number of world-class sports enterprises and events by 2030, with the sports industry expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan in total scale [2] Group 3 - XianDao Intelligent has successfully established a complete production line for all-solid-state batteries, achieving multiple technological breakthroughs and receiving repeat orders from leading domestic and international companies [3] - Zhongwei Company has launched six new semiconductor equipment products, which are expected to positively impact the company's market expansion and performance growth [3] - Shenghong Technology is advancing the research and certification of 10-layer 30-layer HDI technology [4] Group 4 - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has received approval for clinical trials of its HRS-4729 injection, a triple receptor agonist aimed at improving metabolic regulation and weight loss [7] - Wuhan Holdings plans to acquire 100% equity of Wuhan Municipal Institute for 1.6 billion yuan, which will enhance its business scope and revenue [9] - Beijing Lier has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with SenseTime and Xiwang Technology to explore AI computing power collaboration [10] Group 5 - Hangzhou High-tech has experienced a change in control, with several board members resigning due to a share transfer agreement [11] - Guoxin Technology has successfully tested a new high-performance chip for automotive electronics, which aims to address the MCU chip shortage in the domestic automotive industry [12] - Tianhua New Energy has sent samples of its solid-state electrolyte materials to leading companies, receiving positive feedback [13] Group 6 - Shiyun Circuit has entered mass production supply for its AI glasses product for a major overseas client, and has achieved mass production for various server and communication PCBs [14] - Kewang Technology primarily supplies precision cable connection components to Yushu Technology, with a low sales proportion [15] - Junsheng Electronics collaborates with leading clients to provide key components and solutions for robotics and energy management [16] Group 7 - Bowei Alloy is a key supplier of VC thermal materials for an upcoming AI smartphone model [17] - Baoxin Technology has subscribed to an 18 million yuan capital increase in Suzhou Jicui Intelligent Manufacturing Robot Co., Ltd., acquiring an 81.82% stake [18]

Core Viewpoint - The rising share of gold in central bank reserves is becoming unstoppable, driven by concerns over inflation, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, debates over Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical turmoil [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a significant divergence in the performance of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds this year, with gold prices reaching historical highs while long-term Treasury yields have surged to multi-year peaks [1] - The demand for gold has accelerated, leading to a substantial increase in central bank holdings, which now total 36,000 tons globally [8] Group 2: Reserve Composition - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, now accounting for a higher share in central bank reserves than U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [6][7] - The current market value of gold held by central banks is approximately $4.5 trillion, significantly exceeding the $3.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [8] Group 3: Historical Context - The last time gold's share in global reserves exceeded that of U.S. Treasury bonds was in 1996, a period characterized by low inflation and stable economic growth [9] - The current macroeconomic environment is markedly different, favoring gold as a strategic reserve asset amid rising inflation and geopolitical shifts [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift in reserve management towards gold is seen as a significant milestone, indicating a deeper, long-term structural change in global reserve composition [10] - While the possibility of gold reclaiming its historical peak share of 75% in central bank reserves is low, the trend of increasing gold holdings is likely to continue in the near term due to persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks [11]

Group 1 - The United States is preparing to initiate the largest free trade agreement renegotiation, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with public consultations expected to begin within a month [1] - The USMCA includes a mandatory six-year review clause, and after the public consultation, the US government must hold at least one public hearing and submit a report to Congress by January 2026 [1][2] - The USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and was touted as a key trade achievement during Trump's first term [1] Group 2 - Trump's administration previously imposed high tariffs on Canada and Mexico, citing drug smuggling issues, which disrupted the complex North American supply chains [2] - Despite exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods, significant trade activities between the US and its neighbors remain exposed to tariff risks [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated that progress is being made in discussions with Trump regarding trade issues, although short-term agreements on tariff reductions are not expected [3] Group 3 - The US Trade Representative's office has not commented on the situation, while discussions between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum focused on cross-border security cooperation [3] - There is a belief that broader trade agreements will require consensus on security issues, which are critical to the US's anti-drug efforts [3] - Trump extended existing tariffs on Mexican goods for an additional 90 days, citing the complexity of reaching agreements with Mexico [4] Group 4 - The US Trade Representative's office highlighted other barriers in US-Mexico trade, including Mexico's energy policies favoring state-owned enterprises and insufficient copyright protections [5] - Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard acknowledged that the upcoming months will not be easy for the USMCA review, emphasizing the need for mutual cooperation to maintain competitiveness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is underway, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expected to interview 11 candidates nominated by the Trump administration, which may reflect an unusual level of transparency and potential political pressure on the Fed [2][3][5]. Candidate Details - Among the 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, three are considered strong contenders: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Other candidates include Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Larry Lindsey, James Bullard, Marc Sumerlin, Rick Rieder, and David Zervos [4]. Importance of the Federal Reserve Chair Selection - The selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is crucial as the Fed is a key economic policy-making institution in the U.S., influencing interest rates and, consequently, the economic well-being of individuals and businesses [7]. The confirmation process may face heightened partisan conflict due to current political polarization [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is currently no evidence that higher tariffs on imported goods are causing an overall surge in inflation trends, according to New York Fed President Williams [2] - Williams predicts that interest rate cuts will become appropriate over time, although he did not specify the timing or pace of these cuts [2][3] - The labor market has shown signs of cooling due to high interest rates, with significant slowdowns in job growth since May [2][3] Group 2 - Williams expects the unemployment rate to gradually rise to around 4.5% next year due to the combined impact of trade and immigration policies [3] - Short-term inflation rates may spike above 3%, but are projected to decline to 2.5% by 2026 and further to 2% by 2027, aligning with the Fed's inflation target [3] - The path of interest rates post-September meeting remains unclear, with some officials advocating for a series of rate cuts in the next three to six months [4]