美元此轮暴跌使其有望创下1973年15%跌幅以来的最差半年表现，也是2009年以来最弱的六个月周期。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 随着特朗普的贸易和经济政策促使全球投资者重新考虑他们对全球第一大储备货币的敞口，美元兑英 镑、欧元、日元等一篮子六种货币汇率的美元指数今年迄今跌幅超10%，创1973年布雷顿森林体系解体 以来最差上半年表现。 荷兰国际集团（ING）外汇策略师弗朗西斯科·佩索莱（Francesco Pesole）称："美元成了特朗普2.0版反 复政策的代罪羔羊。" 与年初华尔街预测欧元将与美元平价不同，欧元兑美元年内已涨13%至1.17上方，因投资者聚焦美国经 济增长风险，同时德国国债等安全资产需求上升。 他补充称，特朗普时断时续的关税战、美国庞大的举债需求及对美联储独立性的担忧，已削弱美元作为 投资者避险资产的吸引力。 周一早些时候美元再度走低，因美国参议院准备就特朗普"美丽大法案"修正案投票。这项里程碑式立法 预计未来十年将使美债增加3.2万亿美元，加剧市场对华盛顿偿债能力的担忧，引发美债市场的外资撤 离潮。 虽然降息预期助美股摆脱贸易战与地缘政策风险的干扰并再创历 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are diversifying their portfolios and reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over rising deficits and inflationary tariffs, which are diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. debt [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Investment - The U.S. national debt has quadrupled to approximately $36 trillion in less than a decade, with public holdings around $29 trillion [3]. - In April, foreign capital saw a net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. Treasury bonds and the banking system, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [2][3]. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $807.7 billion and China at $757.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Fiscal Policy - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax cuts and spending measures will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2]. - The Senate is expected to pass a bill that may save $500 billion by using alternative calculations that do not account for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Shift to European and Other Markets - European bonds, particularly German and French debt, are becoming more attractive to investors as U.S. deficits expand, with Germany maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100% [4]. - The market for German bonds is expected to strengthen, creating better opportunities for equity markets and increasing the issuance of risk-free German and pan-European bonds [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends in Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a long-term structural trend towards diversification rather than a sudden withdrawal [5]. - Concerns over U.S. risk premiums are anticipated to lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as investors demand higher returns for holding U.S. debt [6].

Group 1 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut is increasing, but JPMorgan's London strategy team warns that the underlying reasons for the cut may not be favorable for the stock market, potentially leading to a "wrong type of easing" and triggering market repercussions [1] - JPMorgan strategists identified three possible scenarios for rate cuts: 1) a cut due to significant economic activity slowdown, 2) a resilient economic growth scenario with controlled inflation, and 3) a cut despite some inflation pressure, possibly influenced by the U.S. government [1] - The strategists predict a combination of the first and third scenarios, where economic activity slows but inflation rises, which could lead to investor disappointment [1] Group 2 - Historically, emerging market stocks tend to perform well when the Federal Reserve loosens monetary policy, and JPMorgan has reaffirmed its bullish stance on this sector after a cautious period [2] - In a rate cut environment, sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and technology typically perform better, while industrials and financials may lag [2] - Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs, its year-to-date gain of 5% is significantly lower than the 21% increase of European stocks [2]

Group 1 - The article argues that the Trump administration has abandoned two of the three long-standing economic principles in the U.S., which are promoting international trade and maintaining fiscal control, potentially leading to a perfect storm of inflation and debt crisis [2] - The third principle, which involves delegating monetary policy to an independent central bank, is also under threat, raising the risk level significantly as the combination of these policy deviations could lead to severe economic consequences [2] - The article suggests that achieving public debt reduction through inflation is no longer a distant possibility but a reasonable outcome, indicating a shift towards "fiscal dominance" where government fiscal policy takes precedence in macroeconomic management [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintains that the current policy interest rate should remain at a moderate restrictive level of 4.25%-4.5% due to inflation being slightly above target and potential price increases from tariffs, while Trump calls for an immediate 2.5% rate cut [3] - Trump's antagonistic stance towards Powell has compromised the Fed's operational freedom, with speculation about a potential successor who may align more closely with Trump's views [3] - The article highlights that the Fed's independence is more of a convention than a legal requirement, and recent political developments suggest that this convention can be disregarded [4] Group 3 - The Fed has limited options to counteract the impending loss of independence, but it can take steps to maintain its integrity, such as fostering internal unity among decision-makers and avoiding public displays of political bias [4] - The article recommends that the Fed should adopt rule-based monetary policy frameworks to guide interest rate decisions, which could help mitigate abrupt and unpredictable policy shifts [4] - Despite the challenges posed by a politically assertive president, the article concludes that the era of Fed independence is waning, and stakeholders should prepare for this reality [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. economy remains resilient despite high tariffs on imports and Middle East tensions, with stable inflation and low unemployment, but this may change as key deadlines approach [1] - The first critical date is July 9, when the 90-day pause on "reciprocal tariffs" ends, potentially leading to higher tariffs unless trade agreements are reached [1] - The second crisis is the potential debt default in August, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warns that the government may face its first-ever default unless the debt ceiling is raised before Congress recesses on August 4 [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced new tariffs on Canada, citing their refusal to cancel a planned tax, despite some exemptions under the USMCA [2] - The economic impact of the tariffs is uncertain, with analysts suggesting that the outcome on July 9 will depend on the government's policy choices, which may include a mix of delays and partial agreements [2] - Fitch Ratings warns that regardless of the July outcome, CPI inflation could rise to 4% by year-end, especially if high tariffs are reinstated [3]

Group 1 - Central bank leaders are gathering in Sintra, Portugal, to discuss the potential decline of the dollar-centric monetary system amid global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [1] - The discussion will focus on how to formulate monetary policy in an uncertain environment, particularly in light of President Trump's protectionist policies [1] - Investors are looking for insights from the upcoming forum, especially from key figures like Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde [1] Group 2 - Any signs of threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve could undermine the dollar's status as the preferred currency for global trade, savings, and investment [2] - Concerns about potential successors to Powell who may align more closely with Trump's wishes could further shake market confidence [2] - The dollar has recently fallen to a near four-year low against the euro, trading at 1.17 [2] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde is in a unique position to promote the euro as a stable alternative amid the dollar's challenges, marking a potential "euro moment" [3] - Despite previous pessimism about the euro, economists stress that the EU must deepen integration in finance, economy, and military to elevate the euro's global standing [3] - A recent OMFIF survey indicates that 16% of central banks plan to increase their euro holdings in the next 12-24 months, although demand remains lower than for gold [3] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan is becoming increasingly cautious about interest rate hikes due to expectations surrounding U.S. tariffs [4] - The Bank of Korea may be forced to end its easing cycle due to a sudden rise in the real estate market [4] - The Bank of England is assessing whether signs of a slowing labor market can alleviate inflationary pressures from rapid wage growth [4]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 BIS指出，增长前景恶化，同时消费者价格稳定、公共财政和金融系统的风险加剧。面对挑战，官员们 建议央行专注核心使命以维护信任，并增强行动有效性。 卡斯滕斯强调美联储在当前环境中尤其艰难，其主席鲍威尔坚决抵制来自白宫的降息压力。"在美国， 美联储可能面临非常困难的局面，即通胀压力上升或通胀预期偏离，同时经济放缓，"他说，"这是央行 通常觉得特别棘手的情况。" BIS报告频繁强调通胀风险，包括贸易中断如何冲击已受人口老龄化和劳动力短缺挤压的经济体，并损 害商品供应。官员们强调，疫情后消费者敏感度上升，结合仍高企的生活成本预期，可能对价格稳定构 成新挑战。 这一分析结合近期原油价格飙升（随后部分回落）可能让政策制定者警惕。BIS经济顾问申炫松（Hyun Song Shin）称："一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳，确保一次性价格上涨不转化为持续通胀至关重要。" 报告还指出，部分国家积累的史无前例的国债构成风险。经合组织成员国利息支付占GDP比例去年达 4%并将继续上升。"通胀和金融稳定风险更易源自主权债市压力或通过其传播，"BIS称，"对财政可持 续性的担忧可能引发再融资挑战，并潜在颠覆通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rumors of a potential merger between Shell and BP were put to rest when Shell denied any acquisition talks, highlighting the competitive landscape and strategic shifts within BP [2][5]. Group 1: BP's Strategic Transformation - BP's CEO Bernard Looney announced a strategic transformation in 2020 aimed at achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and increasing investments in renewable energy [2][3]. - Despite facing challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, BP recorded a profit of $7.6 billion in 2021 and saw profits soar to $27.65 billion in 2022 due to rising oil prices amid the Ukraine conflict [3]. - BP plans to invest up to $8 billion in energy transition and another $8 billion in oil and gas to support energy security and affordability [3]. Group 2: Leadership Changes and Market Reactions - Bernard Looney's unexpected resignation in September 2023 raised concerns about BP's strategic direction, leading to a reevaluation of its independent future [3][4]. - CFO Murray Auchincloss took over as interim CEO and was officially appointed in January 2024, but the company has faced declining profits for two consecutive years [4]. - Following Looney's departure, BP's stock price has underperformed compared to peers, prompting speculation about potential acquisitions from companies like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Adnoc [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Acquisition Speculations - Activist investor Elliott Management increased its stake in BP, coinciding with Auchincloss's announcement to shift focus back to oil and gas investments, which did not resonate well with investors [4]. - Auchincloss asserted BP's strength as an independent company in response to acquisition rumors, while Shell's CEO emphasized high thresholds for any potential mergers [4][5]. - Analysts have questioned the attractiveness of BP's valuation for potential acquirers, suggesting that unless the valuation is compelling, a merger may not be worthwhile for management [5].

Group 1 - The article warns that the risk of Iran developing nuclear weapons is increasing despite claims of military victories by the U.S. and Israel, which may lead Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) [2][4] - The military actions taken by the U.S. and Israel have set a dangerous precedent, potentially igniting a nuclear arms race in the Middle East [2][3] - Iran's nuclear ambitions remain intact, with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and advanced centrifuge components still unaccounted for, despite targeted actions against its nuclear scientists [2][4] Group 2 - The possibility of Iran exiting the NPT is high, which could trigger a chain reaction in the Middle East and increase the likelihood of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons [4] - Saudi Arabia has indicated it would seek nuclear weapons if Iran openly or covertly develops them, highlighting the regional implications of Iran's potential nuclearization [4] - The article emphasizes the need for European countries to take responsibility in restoring the nuclear non-proliferation regime, advocating for a unified stance against Israel's actions that undermine global nuclear non-proliferation efforts [5]

黄仁勋启动自去年9月以来首次抛售 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）上周开始抛售股票，这是他自去年9月以来的首次抛售。英伟达表示，黄仁勋的所有抛 售均属于3月预先安排的交易计划，该计划设定了抛售触发的价格和日期。黄仁勋仍持有英伟达的绝大多数股份。 AI播客：换个方式听播客 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 英伟达（NVDA）内部人士在过去12个月内已抛售超过10亿美元的公司股票，尤其是近期交易激增，仅本月内就有超过5亿美元的 股票被抛售，期间这家总部位于加州的芯片设计公司股价攀升至历史新高。 投资者纷纷重新涌入该股，使其成为全球市值最高的公司，因他们押注用于人工智能应用的芯片需求将大幅增长。在此轮股价上 涨之前，英伟达经历了动荡的一年：全球贸易紧张局势以及中国人工智能领域的突破曾威胁其产品需求。 英伟达全球现场运营执行副总裁杰伊·普里（Jay Puri）——这位在公司工作了20年的老将曾代表黄仁勋前往中国会见官员——上周 三抛售了价值约2500万美元的股票。 另外两位董事会成员滕奇·考克斯（Tench Coxe）和布鲁克·西韦尔（Brooke Seawell）也开始抛售：考克斯于6月9日抛售约1 ...