北京时间周四21:30，美国11月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；未季调核心CPI年率录得2.6%，同样不及市场预期的3%，为2021年3月以来 新低。美国11月CPI两个月累计涨0.204%，11月核心CPI两个月累计涨0.159%。由于政府此前的关门，美国劳工统计局取消了10月份的CPI报告，因此该机构 今天没有公布月度通货膨胀率。 美元指数短线下挫22点，最低至98.20。现货黄金短线上扬16美元，最高至4336美元/盎司。非美货币对普涨，欧元兑美元走高近30点，美元兑日元短线下挫 近40点，最低至155.34。 在11月CPI公布后，美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储1月份降息的可能性从26.6%上升至28.8%，市场预期到2026年底政策将再放松3个基点，预计明年 美联储的宽松幅度为62个基点。 Investinglive分析师Adam Button评美国11月CPI数据时表示，"这份报告出人意料地疲软，但数据收集过程中存在一些问题，因此可能会受到质疑。美国劳工 统计局（BLS）假定由于政府停摆，10月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）为零。我认为大多数经济学家都忽略了这一点，但瑞银指 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.2% from September to November 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7% as of November [1][6] - The CPI excluding food and energy also rose by 0.2% over the same two-month period, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6% [1][5] Inflation Trends - The overall CPI-U for the past 12 months was reported at 324.122, reflecting a 2.7% increase [6] - The CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) also saw a 2.7% increase, with an index level of 317.414 [6] - The chained CPI (C-CPI-U) increased by 2.6% over the past year [7] Food Prices - The food index rose by 2.6% over the past year, with the index for food at home increasing by 1.9% [3] - Specific categories such as meat, poultry, fish, and eggs saw a 4.7% increase, while dairy products decreased by 1.6% [3] Energy Prices - The energy index increased by 4.2% over the past year, with gasoline prices rising by 0.9% and fuel oil by 11.3% [4] - Electricity and natural gas prices also saw significant increases of 6.9% and 9.1%, respectively [4] Excluding Food and Energy - The index excluding food and energy saw a 2.6% increase over the past year, with notable increases in housing (3.0%) and medical care (2.9%) [5] - Other categories such as household furnishings and operations increased by 4.6%, while used cars and trucks rose by 3.6% [5] Data Collection Issues - Due to a government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to collect data for October 2025, leading to reliance on non-survey data for some indices [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its deposit facility rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations, while the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate remain unchanged at 2.15% and 2.40% respectively [1] - The ECB has raised its growth and inflation forecasts for the Eurozone, projecting GDP growth rates of 1.4% for this year, 1.2% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027, which are higher than previous estimates [2] - The ECB has slightly increased its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, now expecting inflation rates of 2.1% for 2025, 1.9% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027, indicating a more optimistic outlook [2] Group 2 - Financial markets are beginning to price in the possibility of an interest rate hike by the end of next year or early 2027, although most economists surveyed expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027 [5] - The ECB has reiterated its flexibility in setting borrowing costs based on the latest data, emphasizing that it will not commit to a specific interest rate path in advance [4] - Factors that could exert pressure on inflation include a stronger euro and potential faster rate cuts by the Federal Reserve under new leadership, which may lead to a further decline in the dollar [3]

2025年白银大涨的核心驱动力，如今已经是公开的秘密。和其他贵金属一样，白银也搭上了"货币贬值交易"的东风，同时还受益于 低利率、居高不下的通胀、地缘局势动荡、美元走弱、各国央行的购金需求，以及光伏、电动汽车等行业带来的强劲工业需求。 2025年白银价格暴涨近130%，涨幅几乎是黄金的两倍，这让部分分析师不禁怀疑，这轮涨势是不是已经过头了。 2025年多个时段还出现了白银现货短缺的情况，这也是助推银价多次大幅跳涨的原因之一。 富国银行投资研究所的萨米尔·萨马纳（Sameer Samana），以及独立研究机构Spectra Markets的布雷特·唐纳利（Brett Donnelly）都 认为，白银后续想要继续上涨会难上加难，在经历了这场创纪录的大涨之后，它也该歇歇脚了。 尽管有上述种种利好，唐纳利却认为，白银的涨幅已经远超基本面的支撑。 他表示："这轮上涨大多是靠市场情绪冲动推动的，和现实中的供需、经济情况几乎没什么关系。"他指出，近几个月白银价格一路 高歌猛进，但美国的财政赤字并没有出现实质性变化，股票这类同样属于"货币贬值"的对冲工具，却早已失去了上涨势头。 唐纳利并不建议现在就做空白银，但他想传递的核心 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 在步入2026年之际，美国股市势头良好，背后有众多乐观预测支撑。尽管许多人预计股市将连续第四年强劲上涨，但其仍需克服诸多潜在威 胁。 首先，当前股市估值已然处于高位，领涨的股票范围相对狭窄，这种格局本身就暗藏风险。人工智能领域的头部企业承载着巨大期望，市场期 待它们能证明自身并非处于泡沫之中，而是仍有上涨空间。 摩根大通财富管理公司首席执行官克里斯汀·莱姆考（Kristin Lemkau）表示："人工智能无疑将重塑诸多行业，创造大量投资机遇，但同时也伴 随着市场追捧过度的风险。" 市场的乐观情绪很大程度上取决于经济能否在保持韧性的同时维持微妙平衡，既不会因过热引发通胀，也不会遭遇利率波动带来的冲击。此 外，投资者也期盼地缘政治局势能趋于缓和，避免供应链遭受冲击。 莱姆考指出："全球秩序正逐渐分裂为相互竞争的阵营，供应链也随之呈现碎片化态势，这使得经济的抗风险能力和安全性变得前所未有的重 要。" 诸多潜在风险意味着，2026年股市很可能出现回调与剧烈波动，尤其是在投资者普遍热衷于追高的市场环境下。以下将深入剖析乐观前景背后 潜藏的各类挑战。 人工智能领域 ...

Group 1 - The next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be chosen between two candidates named Kevin, Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, as President Trump seeks someone who can effectively lower borrowing costs [1] - Trump's previous choice of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has led to regrets, as he aims to select a more controllable candidate who will heed his advice [1] - The selection process has become more complicated with Trump's announcement to delay the final decision, increasing uncertainty around the candidates [2] Group 2 - Hassett faces scrutiny over his close relationship with Trump, raising concerns about the potential negative perception of his independence as Fed Chair [3] - Warsh has gained support from influential figures like Jamie Dimon, but he must also address his own challenges to secure the position [3][4] - The new Fed Chair will likely encounter internal resistance from the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee, which may complicate the implementation of aggressive rate cuts [5] Group 3 - The Fed's decision-making has shown significant divisions, and the new Chair may find it difficult to communicate clear policy directions [5] - The upcoming legal case regarding Trump's ability to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook could have profound implications for the Fed's operational independence [6] - The new Chair will face heightened expectations to remain calm and make decisions beneficial to the economy, rather than simply appeasing the President [7]

贵金属市场迎来了非凡的一年——黄金价格上涨超65%，白银价格涨幅更是突破100%。 加拿大蒙特利尔银行资本市场部（BMO Capital Markets）预计，2026年黄金的上涨趋势将持续。尽管黄 金和白银当前价格已处于或接近历史高位，分析师仍认为其存在上涨空间，且明确表示在各类贵金属中 更偏好黄金。 聚焦黄金：BMO上调2026年价格预期 在2026年官方大宗商品展望报告中，BMO预计黄金将在上半年触及全年高点。分析师当前预测，上半 年黄金均价将达到每盎司4600美元，较此前预期上调约5%。就全年而言，该行预计黄金均价为每盎司 4550美元，较此前预测上调约3%。 这一预测表明，BMO认为当前的黄金上涨周期尚未结束。经过一年约65%的涨幅，且创下近50次历史 新高后，分析师认为这轮牛市虽已进入后期，但尚未耗尽上涨动能。2026年，黄金仍将是贵金属板块中 的首选资产。 白银：涨超100%后预期趋于谨慎 BMO预测的核心，仍是宏观经济对黄金的支撑作用。分析师预计，美联储明年将继续降息。美国利率 下降通常会削弱美元并降低实际收益率，而在这种环境下，作为无息资产的黄金，历史上往往能获得良 好表现。 BMO指出，由 ...

泰国央行行长周四表示，鉴于黄金交易激增助推泰铢升值，央行正呼吁财政部出手管控黄金交易；他还 补充称，在关键利率已降至三年低点后，若有必要，货币政策或将进一步放宽。 今年以来，泰铢兑美元汇率已上涨9.1%，成为亚洲表现第二好的货币，这加剧了泰国这个东南亚第二 大经济体的困境。 目前，泰国正面临多重挑战，包括美国关税冲击、高企的家庭债务、与柬埔寨的边 境冲突，以及明年2月8日大选前的政治不确定性。 泰国央行行长威塔伊·拉塔纳空（Vitai Ratanakorn）在一场商业论坛上表示，黄金交易资金流已成为影 响泰铢汇率波动的重要驱动因素。 "在泰铢大幅走强的日子里，黄金交易额约占推动泰铢上涨资金流动的一半，"他指出，目前大型黄金交 易商的交易量规模已相当于泰国国内生产总值（GDP）的50%左右。 "央行正竭尽所能，最大限度地扩充各类调控措施。我们有《外汇法》可以依托，但该法律并未覆盖黄 金交易业务。必须有相关部门出面监管黄金交易，"他说道。 暂不计划对黄金交易征税 泰国央行表示，目前暂无对黄金交易征税的计划。黄金交易商此前已明确反对征税举措，并警告称此举 将对该行业造成沉重打击。 威塔伊还表示，央行也不会通过对资本 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November is highly anticipated as it will be the first inflation data released since the end of the recent government shutdown, with expectations of a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1% and a core CPI of 3.0% [1][2] - Analysts suggest that if the CPI shows a reading of 2.9%, it could create positive momentum for the stock market and influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, potentially leading to a rate cut in 2026 [2][4] - Morgan Stanley warns that the CPI data is expected to confirm persistent inflation pressures, driven by rising housing costs and resilient commodity prices, with core inflation projected to remain around 3% [4][5] Group 1: CPI Report Expectations - The CPI report is set to be released on Thursday, including the unadjusted CPI year-on-year and the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month [1] - The report is expected to show a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, with core CPI anticipated at 3.0% [1][2] - Analysts express that the psychological difference between inflation rates in the 2s and 3s will be crucial for market sentiment [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - If the CPI reading is 2.9%, it may pave the way for a "Santa Claus rally" in the stock market and influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [2][3] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the lack of monthly data could complicate the interpretation of the CPI report, but overall signals point to ongoing inflationary pressures [4][5] - The report's limitations may lead to a muted market response, but the overarching theme will likely be that inflation remains elevated [3][5] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The report comes after a significant government shutdown, which has affected data collection and may lead to questions about the accuracy of the inflation figures [3] - Analysts highlight the uncertainty in the economic outlook, with conflicting indicators such as weak unemployment trends and strong profit growth expectations [3][4] - The potential rebound in housing inflation and resilient commodity prices suggest that inflation pressures are not confined to the service sector [5]

莫斯科威胁要就欧盟无限期冻结俄罗斯资产的举动报复西方公司，这加剧了一些欧洲国家的担忧，这些 国家对于动用这笔资金支持乌克兰仍持谨慎态度。 欧盟上周同意在可预见的未来继续冻结莫斯科2100亿欧元的资产，作为计划的一部分，未来两年内将利 用这笔资产向基辅提供900亿欧元的贷款，旨在帮助抵御俄罗斯的进攻并加强欧洲在美国主导的和平谈 判中的作用。 俄罗斯承诺，如果其主权资产被用于资助乌克兰，将做出"最严厉"的回应。这一威胁已让比利时、意大 利和奥地利等国家感到震惊。据一位知情人士透露，虽然莫斯科尚未透露可能采取的进一步措施，但官 员们已经在研究没收西方在俄罗斯剩余的任何资产。俄罗斯总统普京上个月称欧洲的计划是"财产盗 窃"。 莫斯科发出威胁之际，欧盟领导人周四齐聚布鲁塞尔举行关键峰会，决定为乌克兰未来两年维持偿付能 力提供资金。然而，比利时继续抵制来自其他国家的压力，不愿同意以资产为抵押筹集的900亿欧元贷 款。 比利时首相德韦弗表示，鉴于该国托管了绝大部分资产，俄罗斯对其进行报复的风险太大。他要求欧盟 其他26个成员国提供财政和法律担保以分担负担。据了解最后时刻谈判情况的官员称，比利时要求在范 围和期限上提供"无限 ...