石油交易商预计， OPEC+或将在11月同意进一步恢复产量，以努力夺回全球市场份额。 周五，布伦特原油价格徘徊在每桶69美元附近，今年以来累计跌幅近7%。这一回落给经历了数年通胀 的消费者带来些许喘息，也有利于美国总统特朗普——他正寻求降息，并向俄罗斯施压以结束俄乌冲 突。 在21位调查受访者中，仅有3人认为8个核心OPEC+成员国不会增产，其余多数预测增产的受访者认 为，增幅约为日均13.7万桶。 不过，沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼亲王（Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman）向来以"出其不 意"闻名，例如曾通过"超大规模增产"加速推进"日均220万桶"产能的重启。尽管西方制裁与乌克兰袭击 对俄罗斯能源产业构成挑战，但作为OPEC+联合领导人，俄罗斯在增产问题上也基本持配合态度。 彭博社对交易商与分析师的调查显示，沙特及其盟友很可能批准11月再次增产，幅度或与定于10月实施 的"日均13.7万桶"温和增幅持平。8个核心OPEC+成员国将于10月5日召开视频会议。 尽管石油行业普遍警告"油市即将出现过剩"，但OPEC+已开始逐月重启新一轮闲置产能（总计日均166 万桶）。 不过，此前 ...

北京时间周五20:30， 美国公布8月PCE数据。核心PCE年率录得2.9%，符合预期，与前值持平。核心PCE月率录得0.2%，符合预期，前值由0.30%修正为 0.2%。 整体PCE年率录得2.7%，符合预期，低于前值的2.60%。PCE月率录得0.3%，符合预期，低于前值的0.20%。 CNBC评论指出，美国8月核心PCE通胀基本维持稳定，这可能会让美联储继续保持此前既定的降息节奏。尽管美联储的通胀目标是2%，但这些数据不太可 能改变政策制定者的方针——他们上周曾表示预计在年底前还将进行两次25个基点的降息。 美国8月个人支出增长超出预期，为2025年3月以来新高，而潜在的通胀压力保持稳定，这显示出美国消费者需求的韧性。 数据公布后，现货黄金短线小幅下挫后反弹。 巴尔金周五说："我们非常专注于平衡通胀和失业率，并努力实现经济的软着陆。两者都有朝错误方向发展的迹象，但另一方面，下行风险是有限的，我们 将不得不随着获得更多信息而调整立场。" 上周，美联储官员投票决定将基准利率下调25个基点，以应对对劳动力市场放缓日益增长的担忧。在此之前，美联储在2025年一直维持利率不变，以评估特 朗普关税政策可能带来的通胀 ...

Core Insights - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a moderate increase, with the overall PCE projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in August, while the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to increase by 0.2% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the year-over-year overall PCE inflation rate for August is expected to reach 2.7%, slightly up from 2.6% in the previous month, while the core PCE inflation rate is expected to remain stable at 2.9% [1][2] - Despite inflation being above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, Powell and other Fed officials are reassured that inflation has not surged unexpectedly due to increased tariffs [2] Inflation Monitoring - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation dynamics, particularly focusing on the extent of price increases in goods and whether the recent rise in service costs is a temporary fluctuation [3][4] - Goods prices have been significantly impacted by tariffs, showing only a 0.5% increase over the past year, with expectations of price declines for most of 2023 and 2024 [4] - Service price growth, which had previously slowed, has recently rebounded in June and July, raising concerns among Fed officials [4] Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of strain, with a significant drop in new job creation, a gradual rise in unemployment rates, and an increase in the time it takes for individuals to find jobs [2] - The Fed implemented its first interest rate cut of the year, citing "weakness in the labor market" as a primary reason [2] Future Outlook - Most Federal Reserve officials believe that service costs will stabilize again, and they are looking for evidence of this in the upcoming August PCE report [5] - The PCE data is considered a critical economic indicator that will be closely watched by market participants [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the "Genius Act" aims to maintain the dominance of the US dollar, with a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a cumulative 125 basis points by mid-2024, bringing rates down to around 3% [2] - The current economic conditions may lead to a decline in demand for US dollars and US Treasury bonds, resulting in dollar depreciation [2] Group 2 - Citadel's founder anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates once or twice more in 2025 due to concerns about the labor market [4] - The number of new jobs is declining, which could hinder the ability to create new employment opportunities without immigration [4] - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market may lead to further rate cuts as economic conditions evolve [4] Group 3 - Panmure Liberum warns that rising long-term US Treasury yields could delay the investment boom in artificial intelligence [3] - Higher yields increase debt costs, making some investment projects unprofitable, with a 1% rise in yields potentially reducing IT equipment investment growth by 0.6% [3] - The current high valuations may lead to downward adjustments in earnings forecasts for large tech companies and growth stocks [3] Group 4 - Citic Securities expects the weakness of the US dollar to persist at least through 2025 due to narrowing monetary policy differentials and slowing economic momentum [6] - The domestic dairy industry is entering a high-growth phase driven by deep processing and increased capacity, with a projected demand exceeding 26 billion yuan [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from lower milk prices and a focus on domestic supply chain innovation [6] Group 5 - The gaming industry is experiencing an upswing due to the approval of new game licenses, with 145 domestic and 11 imported licenses issued in September 2025 [8] - The stable supply of licenses is expected to enhance short-term industry sentiment and support long-term product development [8] - Companies focusing on AI and IP commercialization trends are recommended for potential performance improvements [8]

森巴莱斯特称，企业回购自家股票是推动这一趋势的重要因素。 但归根结底，股市供需失衡所发挥的作用，可能比许多人意识到的更为重要。 至少，摩根士丹利资产管理公司市场与投资策略部门主席迈克尔·森巴莱斯特（Michael Cembalest）是这么认为的。在本周早些时候发布的一份报 告中，他将这种供需失衡描述为"保护股市免受波动冲击的最易被忽视因素之一"。 "我并非市场技术分析师，但我确实认为，2011年以来股票净供给持续减少的态势，助力美股在各类冲击下保持了韧性。如果你认同供需状况会影 响商品价格与劳动力价格，那就完全有理由相信，这类状况同样会影响金融资产价格，"森巴莱斯特在报告中表示。 森巴莱斯特在报告图表中显示，自2011年起，以美元计价的美股供给总体呈收缩趋势。新冠疫情期间的市场繁荣是一个显著但短暂的例外——当 时IPO（首次公开发行）活动激增。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 对于投资策略师来说，他们能随口列出金融危机后美股稳步走高的诸多原因。 正如美国银行全球研究部团队指出，美国大型企业利润率稳步扩大，盈利波动性也有所降低；标普500指数（SPX）成分股公司的资产负债表中， 浮动 ...

目前，美联储改变2%通胀目标的可能性微乎其微。但随着美联储理事会成员构成发生变化，且鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月到期，关于"替代2%固 定通胀目标"的讨论，是否即将逐渐升温？ 市场预计周五公布的数据将显示，美国通胀已连续第54个月超过美联储2%的目标。即便将近年所有冲击因素，以及美联储后疫情时代通胀框架中内置的灵 活性纳入考量，一家央行连续这么长时间未能实现目标，仍属罕见。 而且，通胀很可能在未来数月（甚至数年）内都无法回落至2%。美联储官员的中值预期显示，直至2028年，整体个人消费支出（PCE）通胀与核心PCE通 胀才有望回到2%。 采用"通胀区间"的可能性 对于一个"连续四年多每月都未实现"的目标，选择改变它（本质上是"临时调整规则"），显然不是一件光彩的事。 话虽如此，"政策试探"最好尽早进行。替代当前通胀目标的潜在方案之一是"通胀区间"，部分美联储官员近期已对此表示认可，其中最受关注的是亚特兰大 联储主席博斯蒂克。 本周，博斯蒂克在《宏观思考》（Macro Musings）播客节目中接受乔治梅森大学高级研究员戴维·贝克沃思（David Beckworth）采访时表示，他对未来采 用"通胀区间" ...

Core Insights - The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has seen a significant escalation, with Ukraine launching multiple drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, impacting Russia's oil and gas industry, which constitutes a quarter of its GDP [2][4] - In response to these attacks, Russia has announced a partial ban on diesel exports, which is expected to affect its crucial cash flow from energy exports [4][6] - The global diesel market has reacted strongly, with European refining margins reaching their highest levels since February 2024, driven by already tight global diesel inventories [3][6] Group 1: Impact on Russian Energy Exports - Ukraine's drone strikes have targeted key facilities, including those of major companies like Salavat, leading to significant disruptions in Russian oil exports [2][4] - Russia's diesel export ban is projected to reduce daily export volumes significantly, with Kpler estimating an average of 880,000 barrels per day for 2024, accounting for 12% of global diesel maritime exports [2][3] - The ban is primarily aimed at traders, while refiners, who account for three-quarters of total exports, are not directly affected, yet the news has still led to a surge in global diesel prices [2][3] Group 2: Western Sanctions and Responses - Western nations have implemented a series of sanctions aimed at limiting Russia's energy revenue while trying to avoid global oil price shocks [4][5] - The G7 has set price caps on Russian oil and refined products, which has led to a significant portion of Russian oil being transported via "shadow fleets" to circumvent sanctions [5][6] - Recent sanctions by the EU have further tightened the price caps on Russian oil, indicating a strategic approach to limit Russia's financial capabilities without completely cutting off its energy exports [6][7] Group 3: Political Implications - The situation presents a dilemma for Western leaders, particularly for U.S. President Trump, who is balancing the need to penalize Russia while avoiding significant increases in domestic energy prices [7][8] - Ukraine's strategy of targeting Russian energy infrastructure may strain Kremlin finances but could also provoke retaliatory actions that might destabilize energy prices further, complicating Western support for Ukraine [7][8]

一、突破性结论：后危机改革未能增强大型银行韧性 美联储近期发布的一篇研究论文提出了惊人观点：2008年金融危机后针对大型银行的审慎监管改革，并 未显著降低其偿付风险；相反，这些机构的存款融资风险已大幅上升。这一基于美联储自身分析框架的 发现，直接驳斥了"大型银行资本充足、抗危机能力超金融危机前"的主流说法。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储一份内部研究得出了突破性结论：当前美国大型银行体系面临的风险，可能已超过2008年全球金 融危机前夕的水平。基于全新"经济资本"模型的评估显示，此前被吹捧"更安全"的大型银行，其真实偿 付能力正不断下降，存款基础也愈发脆弱。 这一发现从根本上挑战了过去十余年"后金融危机时代监管有效"的主流叙事，为看似平静的市场敲响了 尖锐警钟。 四、美联储频发警示，呼吁个人储户主动行动 过去六个月，美联储持续发布报告，强调商业地产再融资压力、学生贷款高不良率、消费信贷压力上升 等风险——这与银行CEO们的乐观表态形成鲜明对比。研究显示，部分社区银行凭借保守的经营模式与 低风险资产配置，展现出更强的韧性；但并非所有小型银行都安全，储户需通过多重健康指标进行全面 ...

SHMET 网讯：在近期数据显示经济在面对关税时比预期更具韧性之后，将于北京时间周五晚8点 30分公布的关键PCE通胀报告变得尤为重要，尽管市场普遍预计这一美联储最青睐的通胀指标不会显示 非常令人担忧的上升，但投资者想知道细节中是否有任何魔鬼。 预测人士预计，这份报告将显示，以个人消费支出（PCE）衡量的8月份物价年率将录得2.7%，高 于7月份2.6%，月率将录得0.3%，高于上个月的0.2%；剔除了波动的食品和能源行业的核心PCE预计在 过去一年中上涨了2.9%，与7月相同，月率则较上月的0.3%小幅回落至0.2%。 美联储主席鲍威尔周二在一次公开活动中公布了美联储对PCE报告的展望。他说，美联储经济学家 的计算表明，在截至8月的12个月中，PCE物价指数将上涨2.7%，核心PCE年率将录得2.9%，与市场预 测一致。 尽管通胀已经让位于劳动力市场，但美联储官员仍在密切关注通胀，他们特别想看到的是商品价格 继续上涨多少，以及最近服务成本的上涨是否只是昙花一现。 商品受关税影响最大，自年初以来价格不断上涨。在截至7月的12个月中，商品价格仅上涨了 0.5%，但实际上在2023年和2024年的大部分时间里一直 ...

吕特拒绝对此会谈置评，但承认此类"信号传递"一直通过非正式渠道进行。他称丹麦近期无人机入侵事 件"非常令人担忧"，该国政府正调查俄罗斯可能扮演的角色。 谈及战斗机侵犯事件时他表示："这并非新情况。行为恶劣且必须停止，但我们的飞行员知道该如何应 对，必要时会采取终极手段。"俄官员已否认军机进入爱沙尼亚领空，坚称无意试探北约，另将无人机 闯入波兰事件归咎于失误。 北约秘书长马克·吕特（Mark Rutte）周四表示，西方军队无法持续使用昂贵导弹拦截来袭无人机，并强 调北约正快速向乌克兰学习对抗俄罗斯无人机的经验，将于数周内部署新技术。 吕特在彭博电视接受总编辑约翰·米克尔斯维特（John Micklethwait）专访时指出："用价值可能达50万 或100万美元的导弹击落成本仅一两千美元的无人机，这种模式不可持续。我们所有人都在快速开发技 术并向乌克兰人学习。" 当被问及北约是否缺乏适当装备时，吕特回应"短期内的确如此"，并补充说北约正借鉴乌克兰经验，加 速开发未来数周即可投入使用的技术。 吕特表示此举旨在确保"除传统应对方式外，我们还能掌握拦截技术"。近日北约国家连遭俄罗斯军机及 无人机侵犯，这些事件在莫斯科加 ...