在一次惊人的市场洗牌中，白银市值现已超越谷歌母公司Alphabet，跃升为全球市值第四大的资产。 近期银价突破66美元，将其市值推高至约3.7万亿美元。这一里程碑标志着白银戏剧性崛起的最新篇 章，其价格在2025年已飙升超过125%。白银价值的增长正值投资者对抗通胀对冲工具的需求日益增 长，且其在传统黄金和数字资产之外的工业应用需求也在不断攀升。 白银的这波涨势受到多种因素的推动，包括库存紧张以及可再生能源、电动汽车和数据中心等行业的需 求激增。 白银一直被视为黄金的可行替代品，尤其是在经济不确定时期。随着投资者继续寻找有形资产，白银作 为抗通胀对冲工具的吸引力得到了进一步增强。 白银继超越微软后再度飙升 在超越Alphabet之前，白银已经赶超微软，攀升至全球市值第五位。这种增长被视为经济环境变化以及 投资者对白银未来潜力信心增强的反映。凭借今年超过125%的涨幅，白银跑赢了多种主要资产，展现 出强劲的市场动能。 白银崛起背后的关键驱动力之一是其在太阳能和电动汽车等行业的应用日益广泛。这种金属的独特属性 使其成为生产节能技术不可或缺的组成部分。随着对这些技术需求的扩大，对白银的需求也水涨船高， 进一步助推了 ...

下一次行动是加息？ 欧洲央行行长拉加德甚至可能被问及利率下一步是否会上升，正如一些交易员已经开始押注的那样。但 许多人认为这场辩论为时过早，因为制造业仍有大量闲置产能。 "我预计她会避免卷入下一步是加息还是降息的争论，"法国巴黎银行首席经济学家Isabelle Mateos y Lago表示。"现实情况是，在接下来的几次会议上，无论向哪个方向调整，门槛都可能相当高。" 市场普遍预计欧洲央行将在周四维持政策利率不变，并暗示近期缺乏降息意愿，因为尽管面临全球贸易 冲击，欧元区经济依然表现坚挺，且通胀保持稳定。 这一由20国组成的货币集团近期的增长数据超出了欧洲央行的预期，这得益于出口商比预期更有效地应 对了美国关税，以及德国国内支出抵消了制造业的低迷。 与此同时，受服务业价格上涨的推动，通胀率一直徘徊在欧洲央行2%的目标附近，并预计在可预见的 未来将保持在这一水平。 这可能意味着欧洲央行在周四会上调部分增长和通胀预测，这实际上（虽然没有明说）为宽松周期画上 了句号。在该周期中，截至去年6月的一年里，政策利率从4%减半至2%。欧洲央行管委会的一些成员 在10月的上次会议上就曾希望这么做。 "经济不确定性的阴霾已有所 ...

随着担忧重心从通胀转向英国陷入困境的经济和就业市场，英国央行极有可能在周四送出一份"圣诞大 礼"。 交易员和经济学家预计，英国央行将把基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%，为近三年来的最低水平。决议 将于北京时间周四晚8点公布。 这将是英国央行货币政策委员（MPC）自8月以来首次放松政策。此前外界普遍预期行长贝利将再次投 下决定性的一票，但周三英国通胀数据的急剧下降，增加了MPC四名鹰派成员中有人倒戈的可能性。 英国价格压力消退的证据为降息扫清了障碍，而上个月的预算案也旨在短期内降低通胀。即便如此，英 国央行正逐渐接近其降息周期的尾声，如果该央行在周四如期降息，市场目前仅完全定价了未来再进行 一次降息。 投票分歧 在11月，贝利站在了鹰派阵营一边，该阵营包括副行长伦巴德利和首席经济学家皮尔。贝利当时表示， 在政府预算案即将出台之际，他需要看到更多通胀下降的证据，才能支持进一步放松政策。 自那次会议以来，数据指向了一个更加温和的局面。继11月降幅超出预期后，英国通胀已冷却至八个月 来的最低点，私营部门工资增长放缓，经济连续两个月出现萎缩，预计这足以说服贝利与英国央行的四 名鸽派成员保持一致，其中包括另外两位副行长 ...

12月18日（周四）21:30，美国将公布11月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，预计将显示通胀小幅回升。 经济学家预计，11月CPI同比或从9月的3.0%小幅上升至3.1%。剔除食品和能源后的核心CPI同比料将录得3%。 由于政府停摆导致10月期间大部分数据无法采集，美国劳工统计局（BLS）取消发布10月的CPI数据。这也意味着，BLS将无法提供11月的环比数据。一位 BLS发言人表示： "即将发布的新闻稿和数据库更新中，将不包含2025年11月的单月百分比变化数据，因为缺少2025年10月的数据。" 法国外贸银行（Natixis）首席美国经济学家克里斯托弗·霍奇（Christopher Hodge）表示，环比变化对于判断通胀趋势至关重要。"人们真正关注的是环比数 据，"他说，"同比通胀并不能提供太多信号。" 尽管如此，经济学家仍尝试通过将11月价格指数水平与9月进行对比，来推测通胀的短期变化趋势。市场预测显示，整体CPI在11月可能环比上涨0.3%，与9 月的0.30%涨幅相当，核心CPI环比涨幅预计为0.3%，略高于9月的0.2%。 数据采集缺失可能对CPI质量产生持续影响 数据采集缺失也为本次CPI的可靠 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ukrainian President Zelensky calls on allies to ensure support for Kyiv and to convey to Russia that continuing the conflict is "meaningless" [1] Group 1: Support for Ukraine - Zelensky emphasizes that the outcomes of the meetings must make Russia feel that its desire to continue fighting next year will be futile due to the support Ukraine will receive [1] - He urges partners, particularly the United States, to respond to signals from Moscow indicating preparations for continued conflict [1] Group 2: Frozen Assets - Zelensky calls for the utilization of nearly $250 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets within the EU to support a loan for Ukraine [1] - EU governments have agreed to indefinitely freeze these assets rather than voting every six months to extend this status, although some leaders express concerns about potential legal risks [1] Group 3: Russian Military Intentions - Russian President Putin states that if Kyiv and European politicians do not engage with the proposed peace resolution, Russia will use force to seize more Ukrainian territory [1] - Putin claims that the goals of the so-called "special military operation" will be achieved and mentions that Russian forces are enhancing offensive capabilities and upgrading weapon systems [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights the volatility in the tech sector, particularly driven by Oracle's loss of a key supporter for a major data center project, raising concerns about AI-related spending and debt financing [1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 1.81%, reaching its lowest level since late November, with Oracle's stock dropping by 5.4% after reports that Blue Owl Capital would not fund a $10 billion data center in Michigan [1] - Oracle's stock has declined nearly 46% since its peak in early September, amid growing unease on Wall Street regarding the financing of AI infrastructure through debt [1] Group 2 - In contrast to the negative sentiment, Micron, a key supplier to Nvidia, provided a bullish outlook, projecting approximately $18.7 billion in revenue for the current quarter, significantly above the market expectation of $14.5 billion, leading to a 3.8% increase in its stock price in after-hours trading [2] - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.2%, but remains close to the record closing high set last week, as the tech sell-off prompted investors to seek safety in defensive sectors, with consumer staples performing well [2] - Energy was the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, rising over 2%, driven by President Trump's plans to impose a "full blockade" on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold is expected to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by a growing investor base and various geopolitical factors, despite the historical context suggesting a potential market correction [2][7]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have doubled over the past two years, reaching a historical high of $4,381 in October, with predictions for further increases to $5,000 by 2026 [2][6]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan expect gold prices to average $4,500 and $4,600 respectively in 2026, with a potential peak above $5,000 in the fourth quarter [7][8]. Group 2: Central Bank Influence - Central banks have shifted their foreign exchange reserves from dollar assets to diversified allocations for five consecutive years, laying the groundwork for the gold market in 2026 [3][6]. - Global central banks purchased 634 tons of gold in the first nine months of the year, indicating strong demand that supports higher gold prices [6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The proportion of gold assets held by investors has increased from 1.5% to 2.8% of total managed assets, suggesting a growing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - The demand for gold is partly driven by investors seeking to hedge against potential stock market downturns, with geopolitical tensions further fueling this trend [8][9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The demand for gold jewelry has declined by 23% in the third quarter, although retail demand for gold bars and coins has partially offset this decline [9][12]. - The global gold demand is projected to grow by 11% in 2025, reaching 5,150 tons, before declining to 4,815 tons in 2026 [12]. Group 5: Expansion of Investor Base - The gold investment community is expanding, particularly in Asia, with India allowing pension funds to invest in gold and silver ETFs, and China permitting certain insurance funds to invest in gold [13].

Group 1 - If the AI hype continues to fade, the Chinese stock market may outperform the US stock market [1] - Concerns about US tech stocks have resurfaced, with the S&P 500 index down nearly 2% from its recent peak [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve may be more willing to cut interest rates next year than previously assumed [2] - The upcoming employment reports will be crucial in determining whether the Fed will resume easing policies, with a focus on the unemployment rate rather than overall non-farm payroll growth [2] - Goldman expects the easing cycle to extend into 2026, with the federal funds target rate potentially dropping to 3% or lower [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the price increase of gold will slow down by 2026 due to reduced purchases by central banks and ETFs [3] - By Q4 2026, gold prices are expected to reach $4,800 per ounce, driven by stronger retail demand in China and increased central bank buying [3] - Silver is anticipated to underperform gold, with a peak shortage expected in 2025 due to declining solar equipment installations [3] Group 4 - A Bank of America survey indicates that 53% of investors believe the dollar is overvalued, up from 45% in November [4] - Investors are currently underweight in the dollar compared to historical levels, with short positions in the dollar considered the third most crowded trade [4] Group 5 - Concerns about the AI bubble have eased slightly but remain high, with 38% of investors identifying it as the biggest tail risk [5] - Private credit has emerged as a new risk factor, with 14% of fund managers considering it the largest tail risk for the coming year [5] Group 6 - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan has increased due to strong export performance, but the governor is not expected to signal a hawkish stance [6] - November exports grew for the third consecutive month, indicating a recovery from previous economic contraction [6] Group 7 - The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce notes that softening US employment data may prompt the Fed to consider earlier rate cuts in 2026 [8] - The labor market's cooling is expected to weaken the Fed's resolve to maintain current rates, increasing the likelihood of policy easing [8] Group 8 - China International Capital Corporation remains optimistic about bank stocks' absolute and relative performance, highlighting their high dividend yields and quality development phase [9] - The focus is on dividend yield and certainty, which depend on valuation and profit growth [9] Group 9 - Tianfeng Securities anticipates a more pronounced credit front-loading trend in 2026, with a positive outlook for early-year loans [10] - The bank sector may face challenges from high-interest term deposits and stock market fluctuations impacting general deposits [10] Group 10 - Tianfeng Securities expects a non-symmetric principle for deposit rate cuts in 2026, with a higher probability of implementation in the second quarter [11] - The report suggests a potential need for a rate cut before the Spring Festival, with a range of 25-50 basis points [11] Group 11 - China Galaxy Securities indicates that leading real estate companies are demonstrating strong operational management capabilities, which may enhance their market share [12]

Core Viewpoint - The current job market is described as "very weak," indicating that there is room for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to Waller, a candidate for the next Fed chair [1][2] Group 1: Employment Market - Waller emphasizes that job growth is "not optimistic," suggesting that the Fed should continue to lower interest rates to return to neutral levels [1] - He notes that the current interest rates are 50 to 100 basis points above neutral, advocating for a moderate pace of rate cuts rather than aggressive actions [1] - Despite the weak job market, Waller reassures that there is no "cliff-like drop" in employment [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Waller acknowledges that inflation rates are still above target levels but expects a decline in the coming months [1] - He expresses confidence in stable inflation expectations and dismisses concerns about a potential resurgence in price pressures [1] - Waller believes inflation will decrease over time [1] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Waller anticipates an economic improvement by 2026, hoping that this will positively impact the job market [1] - He acknowledges uncertainty regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on future employment [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - Waller asserts the importance of Federal Reserve independence and plans to emphasize this during his meeting with President Trump [2] - He has become a strong advocate for interest rate cuts within the Fed, having voted against maintaining rates in July [2] - Waller's appointment by Trump and his subsequent confirmation have positioned him as a significant voice in the current Fed discussions [2]

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase has withdrawn nearly $350 billion from its Federal Reserve account since the beginning of 2023, reallocating most of these funds into U.S. government bonds as a defensive strategy against potential profit erosion from interest rate cuts [1][5] - The bank's balance at the Federal Reserve has plummeted from $409 billion at the end of 2022 to just $63 billion by the third quarter of 2023, while its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities have surged from $231 billion to $450 billion [1][5] - This strategic shift reflects how the largest U.S. bank is preparing for the end of a period of easy profitability, where it previously earned returns on cash held at the Federal Reserve while paying low interest to most depositors [1] Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase is proactively moving funds from the Federal Reserve to U.S. Treasuries to lock in higher yields in anticipation of declining interest rates [5][9] - The bank's actions have been significant enough to offset the total changes in deposits at the Federal Reserve for over 4,000 other banks, which saw total deposits drop from $1.9 trillion to approximately $1.6 trillion since the end of 2023 [9] - The Federal Reserve's interest payments on reserves have surged, with projected payments reaching $186.5 billion in 2024, raising questions about the effectiveness of this policy [9][12] Group 2 - JPMorgan Chase has not disclosed the duration of its U.S. Treasury investments or the extent to which it uses interest rate swap contracts to manage risk [5] - The bank's stable deposit base allowed it to benefit from returns on cash held at the Federal Reserve during high interest periods, contrasting with competitors like U.S. Bank, which faced significant losses [5] - In 2024, JPMorgan Chase is expected to receive $15 billion in interest payments from the Federal Reserve, contributing to its total projected profit of $58.5 billion for the year [12]