城堡证券（Citadel）首席执行官格里芬（Ken Griffin）呼吁美国总统特朗普要在美联储和白宫之间制 造"距离"，这凸显了投资者的焦虑，即担心总统会挑选一位亲密盟友来执掌美联储。 这位亿万富翁对冲基金经理周二在巴黎被问及白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特是否应该领导美联储时说 道，"总统和即将上任的美联储主席能做的最重要的举措……就是在白宫和美联储之间保持距离。" 格里芬发表上述评论之际，下届美联储主席之争已进入白热化阶段。曾在两届特朗普政府任职的哈塞特 一度成为继任者的热门人选，但最近几天他的胜率有所下降，因为有迹象表明，美国总统正在听取华尔 街资深人士的担忧，他们担心这位白宫经济学家对特朗普不够独立，并会迎合特朗普大幅降息的意愿。 哈塞特曾表示，美联储需要在不受政治压力的情况下设定利率，但他周二也表示，如果特朗普在经济政 策上有好主意，他会将其传达给央行的利率制定委员会。"总统是一位经验丰富的经济观察家，"哈塞特 说。 摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙上周暗示，他认为前美联储理事凯文·沃什将是一个强有力的人选。沃什曾在 2008年金融危机期间担任美联储与华尔街之间的联络人。 格里芬周二拒绝支持任何一位候选人，称他不认 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year and month-on-month were recorded at 3.5% and 0.1%, respectively, both below expectations [1] Group 2 - The October non-farm payrolls saw a decline of 105,000, the largest drop since the end of 2020, against a market expectation of a decrease of 25,000 [1] - Retail sales in October unexpectedly showed zero growth, missing the expected 0.1% increase, with the previous value revised down from 0.2% to 0.1% [1] Group 3 - Following the employment and retail sales data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January increased from 22% to 31% [1] - The market still anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with an expected easing of 58 basis points next year [1] Group 4 - Analysts noted that the rise in the unemployment rate may not be entirely negative due to an increase in labor participation rate [4] - The White House economic advisor reassured that the rise in unemployment is statistically insignificant and should not be overinterpreted [4] - The private sector's average job increase over the past six months remained at 44,000, indicating the slowest hiring pace in the post-pandemic reopening period [5] Group 5 - Wage growth has slowed to 3.5%, the lowest level in the current cycle, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future actions [6] - The labor market remains characterized by low hiring and layoff numbers, presenting a complex situation for the Federal Reserve in balancing labor market stability and inflation control [5]

由于政府停摆推迟了9月和11月报告的发布日期，企业有了更多时间来报告工资单信息，该机构因此收 集到了更多的回复，一些经济学家认为，这一进展有望提高数据的准确性。 最新统计 劳工统计局发布的11月就业报告显示，9月的就业增长被下修了1.1万人。这属于今年初步修正幅度较小 的一次。由于停摆，9月就业人数的初步估算直到11月20日才报告，远晚于原定的10月3日发布日期。 到那时，数据已经相当过时，经济学家和投资者转向解析私人数据源，以获取更及时的就业市场快照。 Inflation Insights LLC总裁Omair Sharif表示，"修正幅度低固然好，但我认为为了这个而多等五六周是得 不偿失的。" 曾负责劳工统计局就业测量工作的Michael Horrigan认为，也许只需要多等一两周就足够了。他在9月的 一篇博客文章中表示，这样的延期将减少后续修正的幅度。 如果你给企业更多时间来回复调查，你很可能会收回更多的数据，而这正是美国劳工统计局最新的美国 就业数据中发生的情况。 劳工统计局在三个月内滚动收集就业数据。随着它收集到更多数据，初步的就业人数可能会被修正，有 时修正幅度之大，甚至会改变人们对劳动力市场状况 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美媒：沃勒将于周三接受特朗普的面试 美财长贝森特：猜测美联储主席人选将于明年1月初公布 特朗普明日将在黄金时段发表全国讲话，或预告新年政策 美国威胁对欧盟数字服务税计划实施报复 中央财办：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务 发改委：大力提升居民消费意愿，深入实施提振消费专项行动 "亚洲锂都"又现大动作 美国11月失业率创四年新高 360掀"假账风波"，周鸿祎声明：极端失实，影响恶劣 市场盘点 周二，由于非农数据喜忧参半，美元指数在美盘中一度跳水跌破98关口，但随后收复大部分失地，最终收跌0.06%，报98.21；基准的10年期美债收益率最终 收报4.145%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.500%。 现货黄金盘中一度重回4330美元上方，但未能站稳此处，再次回至4300大关附近震荡，最终收跌0.07%，报4302.36美元/盎司；现货白银在亚盘大跌后小幅 反弹，最终收跌0.54%，报63.72美元/盎司。 因供应过剩的忧虑仍在持续，而且俄罗斯与乌克 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Hassett, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence and consensus-building in monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Qualifications and Support - Hassett supports the notion that his close relationship with President Trump should not disqualify him from the Fed Chair position, arguing that collaboration with the president does not undermine his qualifications [2]. - There is growing internal resistance within Trump's advisory team regarding Hassett's candidacy, with concerns that he may prioritize presidential directives over the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment [1][2]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Candidate Probabilities - As doubts about Hassett's candidacy increase, Kevin Warsh's probability of being nominated for the Fed Chair has risen to approximately 46%, while Hassett's probability has decreased to around 39% [2]. - Just a week prior, Hassett's nomination probability was as high as 77%, with Warsh at only 10% [2]. Group 3: Economic Context and Employment Data - Hassett's comments come amid the release of non-farm employment data for November and part of October, which he describes as showing a robust upward trend in private sector employment [4]. - He expresses a positive outlook on employment growth through 2026, despite acknowledging the impact of government shutdowns on employment data [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts a significant decline in inflation by the first half of 2026 [1] - Bessent mentioned that President Trump is expected to announce a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair in early January, with one or two interviews possibly taking place this week [1] - Bessent highlighted that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett are both "very, very qualified" candidates for the Fed Chair position [1] Group 2 - Bessent emphasized the need for an open-minded Fed Chair who can challenge the notion that economic growth leads to inflation, stating that inflation occurs when demand exceeds supply [1] - Concerns were raised about Hassett's close relationship with Trump potentially undermining the Fed's independence, but Bessent refuted this claim, asserting that individuals have the autonomy to make decisions [1] - Bessent expressed worries about the Fed's status, describing it as "a non-elected institution that has lost trust" [1] Group 3 - In economic forecasts, Bessent predicts a GDP growth rate of 3.5% for 2025 and suggests that 2026 could be a prosperous year if the government remains operational [2] - He attributes current economic pressures to "Biden inflation" but anticipates relief for Americans by early 2026, with tax refunds expected to reach $100 billion to $150 billion in the first quarter of the following year [2] - Bessent links the decline in rental inflation to border security measures, stating that rental costs have decreased due to the closure of the U.S. border [3] Group 4 - Bessent mentioned that the Supreme Court is expected to rule on tariff issues in early January, confirming that there are multiple revenue sources beyond IEEPA tariffs [3] - He committed to reducing the budget deficit by "hundreds of billions" this year [3]

Group 1 - In November, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 64,000, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in November reached 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly earnings in November showed a year-over-year increase of 3.5% and a month-over-month increase of 0.1%, both below expectations of 3.6% and 0.3% respectively [1] Group 2 - The October non-farm payrolls saw a month-over-month decline of 105,000, the largest drop since the end of 2020, while the market had anticipated a decrease of 25,000 [1] - The U.S. retail sales in October unexpectedly showed a month-over-month growth of 0%, falling short of the expected 0.1%, with the previous value revised down from 0.2% to 0.1% [1] Group 3 - Following the employment and retail sales data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January increased from 22% to 31% [1] - The market still anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with an expected easing of 58 basis points next year [1] Group 4 - Claudia Sam, a former Federal Reserve economist, cautioned investors regarding the November unemployment rate, indicating that government estimates may be "slightly off" [4] - Analyst Anstey noted that the rise in the unemployment rate may not be entirely negative due to an increase in labor participation rate, suggesting a need for further analysis of the data [5] Group 5 - The ADP weekly employment report indicated a potential rebound in hiring activity, with an average of 16,250 new jobs added per week in the four weeks leading up to November 29, 2025 [5] - This data highlights a continued strengthening of the job market in the latter half of November, although it is subject to change with new data [5]

Core Points - President Trump has signed more executive orders in his second term than in his first, with a total of 221 executive orders as of this week [6] - A significant portion of these executive orders, approximately one-third, have faced legal challenges [4] - Trump's approach to governance has increasingly relied on executive orders to bypass Congress, reflecting a trend of expanding executive power in the U.S. [4][9] Group 1: Executive Orders Overview - Trump has issued executive orders on a wide range of topics, including trade (54 orders), government efficiency (30), foreign policy (25), and cultural issues (20) [7] - Nearly 35% of the executive orders related to the economy and trade have been challenged in court, while 45% of those concerning diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and culture have faced legal scrutiny [7] - The rapid issuance of executive orders has raised concerns about the administration's capacity to implement these policies effectively [5] Group 2: Political Context and Implications - Trump's use of executive orders is seen as a response to perceived failures of Congress to legislate effectively, particularly in a polarized political environment [4][9] - The White House spokesperson emphasized that many of Trump's policies are expected to gain formal legislative support from Congress, ensuring their longevity [4] - Historical context shows that U.S. presidents have used executive orders to expand their powers, with Trump’s approach being a continuation of this trend [9][10] Group 3: Public and Media Engagement - Trump has strategically used media events to highlight the signing of executive orders, often inviting journalists to witness the process, which helps shape public perception [8][10] - The ceremonial aspects of signing executive orders have become a platform for Trump to communicate his policy positions and rally support from his base [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for October and November is challenging to interpret, with uncertainty surrounding the labor market's condition due to the impact of a government shutdown and delayed employee departures [2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - The non-farm payroll report will include partial data for October and complete data for November, but the October unemployment rate will not be published due to data collection issues during the government shutdown [2]. - Private sector job growth is expected to be around 40,000 to 50,000 for both October and November, significantly lower than the preliminary September figure of 97,000 [3]. - The average monthly job creation in the private sector for the first nine months of 2025 was 72,000, which is considered weak by historical standards [3]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest in four years, with predictions for a slight increase to 4.5% in November [4]. - The Labor Statistics Bureau will not release the October unemployment rate, marking the first time since 1948 that a single-month unemployment rate has not been published [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - If the labor market appears to be deteriorating, Wall Street may support further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations for additional cuts in 2026 [5]. - Conversely, if private sector job growth exceeds expectations, the market may remain skeptical due to a lack of other positive labor market indicators [5]. Group 4: Seasonal Hiring - The holiday season typically sees an increase in temporary hiring, which could introduce uncertainty into the employment data [6]. - If the number of temporary hires is lower than usual, seasonal adjustments by the Labor Statistics Bureau may make November's employment situation appear worse than it is [7]. Group 5: Government Employment - The exact reduction in government employment for October is unknown, but estimates suggest that the delayed departure plan from the Trump administration could lead to a decrease of 75,000 to 150,000 federal jobs [8]. - This potential reduction may result in a net decrease in October employment figures, with a possible rebound in November, complicating the understanding of the labor market's true state [8].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the U.S. Treasury market for 2026 are increasing, with the bond market reintroducing risk premium pricing ahead of the new year, despite potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened to its widest level in four years, with the 2-10 year spread surpassing the peak from April [2]. - The 10-year term premium, which reflects the extra compensation investors require for holding long-term U.S. Treasuries, has begun to rise again, reaching a three-month high [2]. Group 2: Upcoming Events - Key events in the U.S. Treasury market this week include the release of the latest employment report, October inflation data, and a 20-year Treasury auction, with potential impacts from the Bank of Japan's anticipated interest rate hike [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Concerns - Investor anxiety is driven by ongoing worries about potential changes in the Federal Reserve's response mechanism, particularly regarding political pressures affecting its independence [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding long-term inflation and the Fed's policy framework is a key factor pushing up risk premiums, contrasting with the post-2008 quantitative easing era [4]. Group 4: Leadership Speculation - President Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, with market perceptions shifting regarding their likelihood of appointment [6][8]. - Market sentiment suggests that Warsh's potential appointment may provide reassurance, while Hassett is viewed as more politically influenced [8]. Group 5: Policy Implications - Despite recent interest rate cuts, the Fed faces pressure from hawkish regional Fed presidents, which could lead to a more contractionary policy stance [9]. - The Fed's recent decision to actively purchase Treasury securities has raised questions about political interference and its implications for market liquidity and inflation risk premiums [10]. Group 6: Inflation Expectations - Current inflation expectations in the bond market are stabilizing around 2.5% [12].