日本央行定于周五将利率上调至30年来的最高水平，并承诺将继续提高借贷成本。尽管面临美国关税带 来的阻力以及鸽派首相就职的影响，日本央行仍将在年内完成两次加息。 此次加息后，日本央行的政策利率按全球标准来看仍处于低位，但对于行长植田和男而言，这将是其推 动货币政策正常化的又一里程碑式举措——日本长期以来一直习惯于非常规宽松政策和接近零的利率水 平。 任何此类举措都将凸显日本央行日益坚定的信念：日本在维持通胀上涨与薪资稳步增长的良性循环方面 正取得进展——这是其设定的加息前提条件。 日本央行周一发布的一项罕见临时调查显示，由于劳动力短缺加剧，其多数分支机构预计企业明年将继 续大幅加薪。 鉴于植田和男在本月早些时候的讲话中已基本承诺12月加息，市场正聚焦于这位行长将在会后新闻发布 会上释放何种关于未来加息路径的信号。 日本央行政策制定者已表明，在将利率推向被视为对经济中性的水平（央行估计该区间为1%至2.5%） 时，他们将谨慎行事。 但分析师表示，植田和男在淡化鹰派信号方面面临着压力，以避免引发新一轮日元贬值——日元贬值可 能推高进口成本和整体通胀水平。 虽然日元走弱有助于提升出口商利润，但可能会促使零售商转嫁成本 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release a combined non-farm payroll report for October and November, but key details, including the October unemployment rate, will be missing due to the government shutdown, marking the first time since 1948 that such data will not be published [1][2] Non-Farm Payroll Report - The October employment report has been canceled, but the non-farm employment numbers and other details will be included in the November report [1] - The non-farm payroll report is based on two surveys, which typically occur during the week that includes the 12th of the month [1] - Employers continued to submit responses electronically during the government shutdown, allowing the BLS to calculate October's non-farm employment numbers [2] - Economists predict that the non-farm employment numbers for November will increase by 50,000 jobs, following an increase of 119,000 jobs in September [2] Unemployment Rate - Due to the lack of a household survey in October, there will be no unemployment rate report for that month, which is unprecedented since the data series began [2] - The unemployment rate for November is projected to be 4.4%, unchanged from September [3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report - The BLS will not release the overall CPI or core CPI for October due to the inability to collect necessary data during the shutdown [5] - The agency indicated that the number of indices that can be published for October will be very limited, and specific guidance for data users regarding the missing data will not be provided [5] - Goldman Sachs warned that the volatility of the CPI series may increase, as price collection in the latter half of November could lead to lower price readings due to holiday sales [5]

Core Viewpoint - Societe Generale predicts that gold will continue to outperform U.S. bonds and the dollar until 2026, maintaining its maximum allocation and advising investors to buy on dips [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Societe Generale has reduced its exposure to U.S. inflation-linked bonds to zero and halved its corporate bond holdings to 5%, while maintaining a 10% allocation to gold in multi-asset portfolios [1] - The bank's analysts suggest that retail investors are diversifying their assets by entering the gold market through bullion, coins, and ETFs, recommending buying on dips due to central banks continuing to diversify away from dollar assets [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by anticipated aggressive and dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - The bank forecasts that inflation pressures will ease next year, but acknowledges increasing risks in the U.S. labor market [1] - Societe Generale's economists predict a further 50 basis points cut in the federal funds rate by April next year, aligning with current market expectations, which would support a gradual easing of financial conditions [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The current real federal funds rate remains relatively restrictive, despite a recent drop from 5.5% to 4%, indicating that inflation-adjusted monetary conditions are still tight [1] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, combined with the political necessity to control food prices ahead of midterm elections, is expected to serve as a strong anchor for policy rates until 2026 [1] - The correlation between the U.S. stock market and bond market remains higher than historical norms, enhancing gold's value as a diversification tool in investment portfolios [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for November is expected to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to reach 4.4% [1][5] - The report will also include data from October, as the Labor Statistics Bureau could not collect unemployment rate data for that month due to the government shutdown [3][5] - Economists predict that the employment data will be volatile, with estimates for November ranging from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 127,000 jobs [3][4] Group 2 - The government shutdown has created uncertainty around the data, with over 700,000 federal workers being furloughed during the shutdown [4][5] - The report will provide insights into the labor market's current state and will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions for the upcoming year [1][4] - Key details from the establishment and household surveys will be crucial for understanding the performance of various sectors in the economy [6] Group 3 - The retail sales data for October is also set to be released, with a modest growth of 0.1% expected, indicating stable consumer demand [6][7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November will be released later, but it will lack month-over-month data due to the absence of October's report, leading investors to focus on year-over-year indicators for inflation trends [7]

Economic Data Release - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for November is set to be released on Tuesday at 9:30 PM Beijing time, amidst a flurry of economic data including retail sales and inflation reports [2] - The November non-farm payroll is expected to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to reach 4.4% [2][7] Impact of Government Shutdown - The report will include data from October, as the Labor Statistics Bureau could not collect unemployment data for that month due to the government shutdown [4] - Economists predict that the October employment numbers may show a decline due to the Deferred Resignation Program affecting government workers, with estimates suggesting a loss of 70,000 jobs in October and a further decrease of 10,000 jobs in November [4][5] Employment Trends - Despite the potential negative impact from the government shutdown, most economists expect a positive job growth in November, with predictions ranging from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 127,000 jobs [4] - The healthcare and private education sectors are anticipated to drive job growth in November [4] Unemployment Rate Insights - Although the October unemployment rate will not be published, the November rate is expected to be around 4.4%, with some forecasts suggesting it could rise to 4.5% or even 4.6% due to federal employment declines [7][8] Additional Economic Indicators - The internal details of the establishment and household surveys will provide critical insights into the performance of various sectors in the U.S. economy [8] - Economists are particularly focused on employment growth in the goods-related sectors, while healthcare and possibly the restaurant industry are expected to continue leading job growth [8] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - The U.S. Department of Commerce will also release October retail sales data, with a modest growth forecast of 0.1% [9] - The upcoming consumer price index (CPI) report for November will be affected by the government shutdown, leading to a focus on year-over-year indicators for inflation signals [9]

特朗普政府周一公布了一项名为"美国科技部队"（U.S. Tech Force）的新计划，包括约1000名工程师和 其他专家，他们将致力于联邦政府的人工智能基础设施和其他技术项目。 根据一个官方政府网站的消息，参与者将承诺进行为期两年的工作项目，与直接向机构领导汇报的团队 合作，并与"领先的科技公司"展开协作。 网站显示，这些"私营部门合作伙伴"包括亚马逊云科技、苹果、谷歌公共部门、戴尔科技、微软、英伟 达、OpenAI、甲骨文、Palantir、Salesforce以及其他众多公司。 "科技部队"的成立表明，特朗普政府正日益将重点放在发展美国的AI基础设施上，以此在该行业飞速 增长之际争夺主导地位。 在该计划宣布的四天前，美国总统特朗普刚刚签署了一项行政命令，旨在建立国家级的人工智能政策框 架，这也是反对各州自行制定法规的行业领袖们的首要任务。 美国人事管理办公室（OPM）主任Scott Kupor周一在接受采访时表示："我们正试图重塑劳动力队伍， 以确保我们有合适的人才来解决合适的问题。" 该网站称，这支工程团队将致力于"高影响力的技术举措，包括联邦机构间的AI实施、应用程序开发、 数据现代化和数字服务交付 ...

经济学家的预测显示，过去两个月美国劳动力市场持续降温。他们认为，9月出人意料的强劲增长（当 月总计新增11.9万个岗位）不太可能延续，并强调这一亮眼的总体数据很可能会被下修。 更值得警惕的是，美国就业市场正在呈现出一种不同以往的运行状态。进入2025年下半年，分析人士普 遍观察到一种"既不招人、也不裁人"的劳动力市场格局。 "10月和11月的数据都可能偏弱，"安普瑞斯金融首席经济学家拉塞尔·普赖斯（Russell Price）表示。他 补充称，在9月出现超预期表现之后，相关数据很可能"会朝相反方向回落"。他个人预计10月和11月的 月度就业增长均在3万至4万之间，失业率则保持在4.4%。 "冻结"的劳动力市场 在美联储再次强调通胀仍然偏高但就业下行风险加大的背景下，投资者将密切关注周二21:30公布的美 国11月非农报告。这份报告将显得不同寻常，因为它将同时包含11月的全部数据以及10月的部分数据。 整体来看，经济学家预计，11月美国新增4万个就业岗位，11月失业率预计维持在4.4%，与9月持平。 推迟至今才公布的10月非农新增人口数据预计将显示政府部门岗位大幅减少，原因是联邦雇员的买断计 划。与10月失业率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the Trump administration and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's government regarding Israel's recent military actions in Gaza, which are seen as violations of a ceasefire agreement facilitated by the U.S. [2][3] Group 1: U.S.-Israel Relations - The White House sent a stern private message to Netanyahu, emphasizing that Israel's recent killing of a Hamas military commander violated the ceasefire agreement [2] - U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Rubio and special envoy Kushner, expressed frustration with Netanyahu's actions and their implications for U.S. diplomatic efforts in the region [2][4] - The Trump administration is concerned that Netanyahu's cross-border attacks in Syria undermine U.S. efforts to stabilize the region and achieve new security agreements [3] Group 2: Regional Diplomacy - The U.S. aims to repair Israel's relations with the Arab world and expand the Abraham Accords, but regional leaders are increasingly distrustful of Netanyahu [5] - Efforts to facilitate a meeting between Netanyahu and Egyptian President Sisi faced strong opposition from Egypt, highlighting Netanyahu's isolation [5] - The Trump administration is making significant efforts to mend relations, but warns that if Netanyahu does not take necessary steps to ease tensions, they will not pursue the expansion of the Abraham Accords [5]

特朗普曾告诉记者他已有人选，但在上周五接受《华尔街日报》采访时，他表示前美联储理事凯文·沃 什已与哈塞特并列成为美联储候选人名单的榜首，这令投资者大感意外。这番言论导致哈塞特在预测市 场上的胜率直线跳水。 特朗普当时说，"我认为这两位凯文都很棒。" 周一，在预测市场上，哈塞特仍然是热门人选，胜率为51%，尽管这一数字已从本月早些时候超过80% 的高点回落。沃什的胜率目前为44%，较12月初的约11%有所上升。 据知情人士透露，凯文·哈塞特竞选美联储主席一事曾被市场视为板上钉钉，但如今却遭到了一些能跟 美国总统特朗普说得上话的高层人士的阻力。 但据多位消息人士透露，随着12月的推进，哈塞特的竞选遭遇了一些阻力。人们越来越担心，如果债券 市场认为他过于听命于特朗普，可能会在未来发起反抗。这种看法最终可能会产生与特朗普预期相反的 效果：由于担心哈塞特在未来通胀反弹时无法采取足够措施来遏制通胀，长期收益率最终可能会上升。 消息人士称，人们担心这位国家经济委员会主任与总统关系过密，具有讽刺意味的是，这正是他最初成 为接替现任主席鲍威尔领跑者的原因。这种阻力或许解释了为何候选人面试在12月初被取消，随后又被 重新安排在上 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美联储主席候选人博弈加剧，哈塞特面临特朗普身边高层反对 美国代表团坚持要求乌克兰交出顿巴斯地区，乌克兰将获得类似北约第五条款的安全保障 美媒：白宫私下斥责内塔尼亚胡违反停火协议 纳斯达克将正式申请5X23小时交易 日媒：日本央行预计将加息至0.75% 《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》 11月份我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3% A股收盘，沪指早盘翻红再度回落，沪指跌0.55%，深成指跌1.1%，创业板指跌1.77%，沪深两市成交额1.77万亿，较上一个交易日缩量3188亿。盘面上，全 市场下跌个股近3000只。AI手机板块全天走弱，江波龙跌超7%，福蓉科技跌超6%。CPO板块盘中走弱，仕佳光子、腾景科技双双跌超10%。半导体板块回 调，芯原股份跌超11%，灿芯股份、成都华微跌超7%。另一方面，乳业板块震荡走强，南侨食品、阳光乳业、均瑶健康等多股涨停。保险板块表现亮眼， 中国平安涨近5%，中国太保涨超3%。影视院线、培育钻石、算力租赁 ...