Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's chief economic strategist noted that inflation has not re-accelerated but remains above target, indicating insufficient grounds for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in January [1] - JPMorgan's CEO highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy despite a slowdown in the labor market, with consumer spending remaining strong and businesses generally healthy [1] - Credit Agricole's forex strategist suggested that the market has already priced in negative factors related to interest rate cuts, indicating that the dollar may be undervalued [1] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - Barclays reported that the Japanese yen may face downward pressure due to rising concerns over Japan's fiscal situation, potentially leading to further monetary easing [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ noted that a significant depreciation of the yen could raise concerns among policymakers, with speculation about government intervention to support the currency [3] - Julius Baer indicated that despite narrowing interest rate differentials, the yen is expected to remain weak due to concerns over Japan's fiscal policies and high public debt levels [4] Group 3: UK Economic Outlook - ING analysts warned that the British pound's recent gains against the euro may not be sustainable, as the Bank of England could lower interest rates sooner than expected [5][6] Group 4: U.S. Inflation and Federal Reserve Predictions - CICC reported that the U.S. December CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI was slightly below expectations [7] - CITIC Securities projected that the Federal Reserve would pause interest rate cuts in January and implement two cuts of 25 basis points each later in the year [8] Group 5: Strategic Metals and Investment Opportunities - CITIC Jiantou emphasized the bullish outlook for strategic metals due to rising resource nationalism and significant changes in demand dynamics [9] - Galaxy Securities highlighted the potential for a super copper cycle driven by the intersection of AI advancements and global order restructuring, suggesting significant upside for copper prices [11][12] Group 6: Brain-Computer Interface Industry - Galaxy Securities reported that brain-computer interface technology is moving towards industrial production, with significant policy support in China facilitating its commercialization [13]

Core Viewpoint - The actions of the Trump administration towards the Federal Reserve over the past year are fundamentally about monetary policy, as stated by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who defended Fed Chair Powell amid a criminal investigation led by the Justice Department [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Kashkari emphasized the importance of explaining to voters why the independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the health and vitality of the U.S. economy [1] - The Supreme Court has signaled a different view of the Federal Reserve compared to other independent agencies, potentially granting the Trump administration more power over the Fed [2] - If the Supreme Court sides with Trump, it could undermine the foundational independence of the Federal Reserve, allowing future presidents to dismiss Fed officials at will [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Funds rate currently hovers between 3.5% and 3.75%, a level that Kashkari believes positions the Fed well [2] - There is significant division among decision-makers regarding recent interest rate decisions, with some officials opposing a rate cut due to persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [4] - Kashkari expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, citing a solid economic foundation despite some labor market cracks and ongoing high inflation [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Kashkari warned that inflation could remain above target levels for the next two to three years, potentially leading to prolonged high inflation [5] - A significant rise in unemployment, particularly if accompanied by easing inflation, could prompt a change in Kashkari's strategy [5] - The current economic resilience suggests that tight monetary policy may not be as impactful as perceived, as there have not been widespread layoffs despite reduced hiring [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy in 2025, despite challenges such as Trump's economic policies and government shutdowns, with retail sales in November exceeding expectations due to a rebound in automobile purchases and strong holiday shopping [2] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% in November, with the previous month's data revised down to a decline of 0.1%. Excluding automobiles, sales rose by 0.5% [2] - Ten out of thirteen retail categories recorded growth, including sporting goods, hobby stores, building materials retailers, and clothing stores, indicating broad-based consumer spending [2] Group 2 - The increase in retail sales was also supported by a rise in gasoline station sales, contributing to overall growth [2] - The holiday shopping season typically accelerates in November, with retailers offering promotions and discounts not only on "Black Friday" but also in the preceding days [2] - Despite ongoing concerns about affordability and job prospects, consumers took advantage of discounts, with affluent Americans continuing to support overall consumption [2][3]

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached record highs in 2025, with predictions for further increases in 2026 driven by supply shortages, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over central bank independence [1][4] - The concept of "resource nationalism" is emerging, contributing to the upward trend in precious metal prices, as geopolitical risks escalate [2][3] Price Trends - In 2025, spot gold prices surged approximately 65%, while spot silver prices increased by about 150% [3] - As of early 2026, gold prices have risen over 7%, and silver prices have increased by more than 25% [3] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including the U.S. controlling Venezuela and potential military actions regarding Greenland, are intensifying political risks that support precious metal prices [2] - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the $2.5 billion renovation project has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a supply shortage due to export control measures from China, leading to significant price premiums in the Shanghai market compared to international prices [3] - The demand for silver is driven by its critical role in various industries, including electronics and automotive, indicating substantial potential for price increases [3] Investment Outlook - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver could surpass $100 per ounce in 2026, based on current market dynamics and geopolitical factors [2][3] - The expectation of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is likely to support gold prices, with no immediate factors suggesting a decline in precious metal prices [4]

华尔街向来热衷于创造朗朗上口的英文缩写，以此概括交易逻辑，比如代表科技龙头的FANG（指的是 Facebook、亚马逊、Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet）、描述市场情绪的FOMO（错失恐惧）/YOLO（人 生苦短，及时行乐），还有戏谑关税政策的TACO（特朗普总是临阵退缩）。 如今，奈德・戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）首席美国策略师埃德・克利索尔德（Ed Clissold） 打算创造一个新名词——Big MAC交易，这个缩写对应的是"中期选举大战将至（Big Midterms Are Coming）"。他想用这个概念，概括他眼中2026年美股市场的核心主题：今年秋季国会选举前后的政策 走向及其影响。 Sevens Report创始人汤姆・埃塞耶（Tom Essaye）称，政府政策"乱象"是2026年市场面临的又一风险。 他担忧的是，市场对特朗普近期多次试图改写经济和商业政策的举动反应平淡，这或许释放出一个信 号：市场对政策细节的变动已趋于麻木。 "这是我们未来需要密切关注的风险，因为市场对政策不确定性的漠视，似乎正在助长本届政府的激进 倾向。"他在周一的报告中写道。 埃塞耶补 ...

Group 1 - Iran has warned U.S. allies in the Middle East that if Washington attacks Iran, it will target U.S. military bases located in those countries [1] - Iran's missile stockpile has increased since the 12-day conflict with Israel last year, and the Revolutionary Guard has reached a state of maximum readiness [1] - The death toll from the unrest in Iran has risen to nearly 2,600, marking one of the most significant challenges to the Iranian government since the 1979 Islamic Revolution [1][4] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump has threatened strong actions if Iran executes protesters, urging Iranians to continue their protests [2][7] - The U.S. has military deployments in the region, including the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is a forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command [2] - Iran's foreign minister has communicated with counterparts in Qatar, the UAE, and Turkey, emphasizing Iran's determination to defend its sovereignty against foreign interference [4] Group 3 - The Iranian government has accused the U.S. and Israel of inciting unrest and has attributed violent incidents to alleged terrorists attacking security forces and public property [5] - The Iranian judiciary has called for swift trials and punishment for those responsible for violence against protesters to prevent future occurrences [6] - A funeral procession is planned in Tehran for over 100 civilians and security personnel who died during the unrest, indicating ongoing tensions within the country [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony regarding office renovations, adding uncertainty to monetary policy outlook, although market reactions have been relatively calm [2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Market response to the investigation has been muted, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising only about 2 basis points [2]. - This contrasts sharply with last summer's market volatility when President Trump suggested he might dismiss Powell, leading to a significant yield increase of 8 basis points on July 11 and 11 basis points on July 16 [2]. - The probability of Powell leaving the Federal Reserve Board by the end of the year has decreased from 83% to 57% according to Polymarket data [2]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The investigation may embolden hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), complicating the prospects for a more dovish stance from the next Federal Reserve Chair [3]. - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hold a hearing on January 21 regarding a case involving Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which may have significant implications for future policy direction [3]. - A negative ruling against Cook could increase the risk of Powell facing removal [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Recent lower-than-expected inflation data has raised market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with traders anticipating a cut at the June policy meeting, though the likelihood of a cut in January remains low [3]. - The health of the job market will be crucial in determining whether further rate cuts are necessary, as evidenced by the unexpected drop in the U.S. unemployment rate in December [4]. - Major Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Citigroup, have pushed back their rate cut predictions to late 2026, while JPMorgan no longer expects a cut in 2026 and anticipates a rate hike in 2027 [4].

这封此前未被报道的四页信件，是在这位央行行长就项目成本超支向参议院银行委员会作证两周半后发 出的。鲍威尔目前正因其去年6月25日关于央行总部改造的证词而接受司法部的刑事调查。 美国总统特朗普和其他高级政府官员，包括管理和预算办公室（OMB）主任拉塞尔·沃特（Russell Vought），指责这位美联储主席在翻新工程的规模和范围上误导了国会。美联储理事会于2017年首次批 准了该项目，工程定于明年完工。 鲍威尔上周日表示，司法部已要求联邦大陪审团向美联储发出传票，这一举措最终可能导致起诉。 负责监督此项刑事调查的华盛顿特区联邦检察官珍妮·皮罗（Jeanine Pirro）表示，她的办公室要求发出 传票，部分原因是为了寻找关于"主席国会证词"中与项目相关的更多信息。她声称其办公室曾在"多个 场合"寻求信息但遭到"无视"。 据知情人士透露，美联储在假期期间收到了华盛顿联邦检察官办公室一名工作人员的两封电子邮件，其 中并未提及刑事调查。鲍威尔发给颇具影响力的参议院银行委员会的信件表明，这位央行行长已就立法 者的问题提供了详尽的回答。 据英国《金融时报》看到的一封信件显示，美联储主席鲍威尔去年7月曾致信参议员，详细说 ...

若"50万吨"这一数据准确无误，那么一个1吉瓦的数据中心，就将消耗全球年铜供应量的1.7%。按照人工智能产业发展的合理预期，未来若新建总容量30吉 瓦的数据中心，仅这一个领域，理论上就将消耗全球近一半的铜矿产量。 这一数据听起来堪称大宗商品市场的终极利好催化剂，铜价也随之屡创历史新高。但现实是，这件事恰恰给市场敲响了警钟。 在大宗商品领域，"结构性牛市逻辑"与"现实物理限制"息息相关，至少在媒体报道与部分过度乐观的分析师眼中是如此。 近日，《福布斯》杂志翻出了英伟达（NVDA）一份去年5月首次发布的技术报告，这份最初源于英伟达技术简报的文件，随后在各类研究报告与人工智能 训练数据集中广泛传播。英伟达在报告中称，传统架构中，单个1兆瓦机架在物理上要求高达200千克的铜母线，单个1吉瓦的机架则可能需要多达50万吨的 铜。显然，现有电力分配技术，难以支撑未来吉瓦级数据中心的大规模建设需求。相关表述目前仍可在其官网查询。 记者们跟风报道的行为尚可理解，但连美国铜业发展协会（The Copper Development Association）也在宣扬这一错误数据，而该机构本该具备专业的行业判 断能力。 对于多年来一直 ...

Group 1 - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled intentions to raise interest rates when conditions allow, despite speculation about an early election by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida [1] - Ueda's comments indicate that financial market fluctuations due to election speculation have not altered the Bank of Japan's path towards rate hikes, maintaining consistency with his previous statements [1] - Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to hold its policy steady during the January 23 meeting, with the next rate hike anticipated around June [1] Group 2 - Currency depreciation has increased import costs, contributing to broader inflationary pressures, complicating Ueda's goal of achieving stable price growth [2] - Ueda noted that wages and inflation may continue to rise gradually, and appropriate adjustments to monetary easing will help achieve price targets and long-term economic growth [2] - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, with expectations of rate hikes approximately every six months, although a weak yen may accelerate the timing of the next action [2]