目前，美联储改变2%通胀目标的可能性微乎其微。但随着美联储理事会成员构成发生变化，且鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月到期，关于"替代2%固 定通胀目标"的讨论，是否即将逐渐升温？ 市场预计周五公布的数据将显示，美国通胀已连续第54个月超过美联储2%的目标。即便将近年所有冲击因素，以及美联储后疫情时代通胀框架中内置的灵 活性纳入考量，一家央行连续这么长时间未能实现目标，仍属罕见。 而且，通胀很可能在未来数月（甚至数年）内都无法回落至2%。美联储官员的中值预期显示，直至2028年，整体个人消费支出（PCE）通胀与核心PCE通 胀才有望回到2%。 采用"通胀区间"的可能性 对于一个"连续四年多每月都未实现"的目标，选择改变它（本质上是"临时调整规则"），显然不是一件光彩的事。 话虽如此，"政策试探"最好尽早进行。替代当前通胀目标的潜在方案之一是"通胀区间"，部分美联储官员近期已对此表示认可，其中最受关注的是亚特兰大 联储主席博斯蒂克。 本周，博斯蒂克在《宏观思考》（Macro Musings）播客节目中接受乔治梅森大学高级研究员戴维·贝克沃思（David Beckworth）采访时表示，他对未来采 用"通胀区间" ...

Core Insights - The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has seen a significant escalation, with Ukraine launching multiple drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, impacting Russia's oil and gas industry, which constitutes a quarter of its GDP [2][4] - In response to these attacks, Russia has announced a partial ban on diesel exports, which is expected to affect its crucial cash flow from energy exports [4][6] - The global diesel market has reacted strongly, with European refining margins reaching their highest levels since February 2024, driven by already tight global diesel inventories [3][6] Group 1: Impact on Russian Energy Exports - Ukraine's drone strikes have targeted key facilities, including those of major companies like Salavat, leading to significant disruptions in Russian oil exports [2][4] - Russia's diesel export ban is projected to reduce daily export volumes significantly, with Kpler estimating an average of 880,000 barrels per day for 2024, accounting for 12% of global diesel maritime exports [2][3] - The ban is primarily aimed at traders, while refiners, who account for three-quarters of total exports, are not directly affected, yet the news has still led to a surge in global diesel prices [2][3] Group 2: Western Sanctions and Responses - Western nations have implemented a series of sanctions aimed at limiting Russia's energy revenue while trying to avoid global oil price shocks [4][5] - The G7 has set price caps on Russian oil and refined products, which has led to a significant portion of Russian oil being transported via "shadow fleets" to circumvent sanctions [5][6] - Recent sanctions by the EU have further tightened the price caps on Russian oil, indicating a strategic approach to limit Russia's financial capabilities without completely cutting off its energy exports [6][7] Group 3: Political Implications - The situation presents a dilemma for Western leaders, particularly for U.S. President Trump, who is balancing the need to penalize Russia while avoiding significant increases in domestic energy prices [7][8] - Ukraine's strategy of targeting Russian energy infrastructure may strain Kremlin finances but could also provoke retaliatory actions that might destabilize energy prices further, complicating Western support for Ukraine [7][8]

一、突破性结论：后危机改革未能增强大型银行韧性 美联储近期发布的一篇研究论文提出了惊人观点：2008年金融危机后针对大型银行的审慎监管改革，并 未显著降低其偿付风险；相反，这些机构的存款融资风险已大幅上升。这一基于美联储自身分析框架的 发现，直接驳斥了"大型银行资本充足、抗危机能力超金融危机前"的主流说法。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储一份内部研究得出了突破性结论：当前美国大型银行体系面临的风险，可能已超过2008年全球金 融危机前夕的水平。基于全新"经济资本"模型的评估显示，此前被吹捧"更安全"的大型银行，其真实偿 付能力正不断下降，存款基础也愈发脆弱。 这一发现从根本上挑战了过去十余年"后金融危机时代监管有效"的主流叙事，为看似平静的市场敲响了 尖锐警钟。 四、美联储频发警示，呼吁个人储户主动行动 过去六个月，美联储持续发布报告，强调商业地产再融资压力、学生贷款高不良率、消费信贷压力上升 等风险——这与银行CEO们的乐观表态形成鲜明对比。研究显示，部分社区银行凭借保守的经营模式与 低风险资产配置，展现出更强的韧性；但并非所有小型银行都安全，储户需通过多重健康指标进行全面 ...

SHMET 网讯：在近期数据显示经济在面对关税时比预期更具韧性之后，将于北京时间周五晚8点 30分公布的关键PCE通胀报告变得尤为重要，尽管市场普遍预计这一美联储最青睐的通胀指标不会显示 非常令人担忧的上升，但投资者想知道细节中是否有任何魔鬼。 预测人士预计，这份报告将显示，以个人消费支出（PCE）衡量的8月份物价年率将录得2.7%，高 于7月份2.6%，月率将录得0.3%，高于上个月的0.2%；剔除了波动的食品和能源行业的核心PCE预计在 过去一年中上涨了2.9%，与7月相同，月率则较上月的0.3%小幅回落至0.2%。 美联储主席鲍威尔周二在一次公开活动中公布了美联储对PCE报告的展望。他说，美联储经济学家 的计算表明，在截至8月的12个月中，PCE物价指数将上涨2.7%，核心PCE年率将录得2.9%，与市场预 测一致。 尽管通胀已经让位于劳动力市场，但美联储官员仍在密切关注通胀，他们特别想看到的是商品价格 继续上涨多少，以及最近服务成本的上涨是否只是昙花一现。 商品受关税影响最大，自年初以来价格不断上涨。在截至7月的12个月中，商品价格仅上涨了 0.5%，但实际上在2023年和2024年的大部分时间里一直 ...

吕特拒绝对此会谈置评，但承认此类"信号传递"一直通过非正式渠道进行。他称丹麦近期无人机入侵事 件"非常令人担忧"，该国政府正调查俄罗斯可能扮演的角色。 谈及战斗机侵犯事件时他表示："这并非新情况。行为恶劣且必须停止，但我们的飞行员知道该如何应 对，必要时会采取终极手段。"俄官员已否认军机进入爱沙尼亚领空，坚称无意试探北约，另将无人机 闯入波兰事件归咎于失误。 北约秘书长马克·吕特（Mark Rutte）周四表示，西方军队无法持续使用昂贵导弹拦截来袭无人机，并强 调北约正快速向乌克兰学习对抗俄罗斯无人机的经验，将于数周内部署新技术。 吕特在彭博电视接受总编辑约翰·米克尔斯维特（John Micklethwait）专访时指出："用价值可能达50万 或100万美元的导弹击落成本仅一两千美元的无人机，这种模式不可持续。我们所有人都在快速开发技 术并向乌克兰人学习。" 当被问及北约是否缺乏适当装备时，吕特回应"短期内的确如此"，并补充说北约正借鉴乌克兰经验，加 速开发未来数周即可投入使用的技术。 吕特表示此举旨在确保"除传统应对方式外，我们还能掌握拦截技术"。近日北约国家连遭俄罗斯军机及 无人机侵犯，这些事件在莫斯科加 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming PCE inflation report is crucial as it is expected to show a slight increase in inflation rates, with the annual rate projected at 2.7% for August, up from 2.6% in July [2] - The core PCE, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to remain stable at 2.9% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2][5] - Recent economic data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy despite tariffs, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [4][5] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The PCE report is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.3% in August, compared to 0.2% in July, indicating a potential upward trend in consumer prices [2] - The report will be closely monitored by Federal Reserve officials, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on goods prices and the recent rise in service costs [2][3] - Economic indicators such as a 20% increase in new home sales and a decline in initial jobless claims suggest a robust economic environment, which may complicate the Fed's dual mandate of supporting employment while controlling inflation [4][5] Market Reactions and Expectations - Financial markets are pricing in an 85.5% chance of a rate cut in October, down from 92%, reflecting uncertainty surrounding inflation data [6] - A higher-than-expected inflation report could lead to market declines, as it may deter the Fed from further rate cuts [6][7] - Analysts express concerns that if inflation remains elevated, it could derail plans for significant rate reductions in the coming months [5][6] Gold Market Dynamics - Recent comments from the Federal Reserve and a significant GDP revision have strengthened the dollar, negatively impacting gold prices [8] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may face resistance around $3752, with potential declines if they fall below key support levels [8] - Despite the bearish sentiment, there remains a possibility for gold to test historical highs if it can maintain levels above $3800 [8]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 一位听取了关于布莱尔潜在角色讨论简报的人士说，美国正考虑让他在加沙的过渡安排中扮演一个角 色。 布莱尔的办公室拒绝对此发表评论。 离开唐宁街后曾担任中东特使的布莱尔，几个月来一直以个人身份致力于推广一项在以色列对哈马斯近 两年的战争结束后，由国际托管来治理加沙的计划。他上个月出席了在白宫举行的一次会议，与特朗普 的女婿、总统第一任期内的中东顾问贾里德·库什纳（Jared Kushner）一同讨论了这片被围困地带的战后 计划。 作为1997年至2007年的英国首相，布莱尔与伊拉克战争有着密切关系，其曾坚定支持美国、推动英国参 战。当时布莱尔政府发布了两份关键情报文件，声称伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤武器，且能在45分钟内部署 化学武器。这些文件后来被质疑夸大事实，部分情报来源不可靠，并因此受到广泛批评。 欧洲和阿拉伯国家曾反对国际托管的想法，认为这会使巴勒斯坦人边缘化，并在加沙人眼中缺乏合法 性。他们认为，加沙应由一个得到巴勒斯坦权力机构——即管理着被占领西岸部分有限地区的、受西方 支持的机构——认可的巴勒斯坦技术官僚委员会来管理。 特朗普的提议包含了各种欧洲和阿拉伯计划的元素，包 ...

Industry News - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association opposes "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, emphasizing that it harms national and industry interests and deviates from high-quality development goals [1] - The Ministry of Commerce of China has added three US companies to the unreliable entity list and three others to the export control list, prohibiting them from engaging in import and export activities related to China [2] - The Ministry of Commerce calls for countries to jointly oppose unilateralism and protectionism, stressing that third-party interests should not be sacrificed due to coercion from others [2] - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 36 trillion yuan, marking the fifth historical high this year, with significant growth in stock and mixed funds [3] Company News - The stock of Upwind New Materials will be suspended for verification after rising over 1800% this year, marking its second suspension since a change in control was disclosed [4] - Ganfeng Lithium plans to introduce investors for a capital increase of up to 2.5 billion yuan for its subsidiary, Ganfeng Lithium Battery [4] - Jingfeng Mingyuan has entered mass production of its second-generation DrMos chips, which have been adopted by multiple clients, driving business growth [5] - Pingmei Shenma Group is undergoing a strategic restructuring, which will not significantly impact Pingmei Co.'s operations [5] - Lvtian Machinery clarifies that it has no relationship or business cooperation with Zhuhai Lvtian Machinery Co., Ltd. [6] - Xiamen International Trade holds a 0.67% stake in Mohr Thread through its investment fund [7] - Yuexiu Capital confirms that Mohr Thread is one of its investment projects, with no significant impact on current operating performance [8] - Dazhihui announces a share swap with Xiangcai Co., with a swap price of 9.53 yuan per share for Dazhihui [9] - Putailai has delivered dry and solid-state battery equipment to major domestic and international clients [10] - Hailunzhe's investment in Suzhou Yisheng Robotics is expected to positively impact future performance due to increased demand from Apple [11] - Hanyu Pharmaceutical plans to raise up to 968 million yuan for the development of semaglutide and other projects [12] - Tianen Kang's subsidiary has received approval for clinical trials of a new drug for rosacea, a first in the domestic market [12] - Baili Tianheng's innovative drug has been included in the list of breakthrough therapies by the National Medical Products Administration [13]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 周四，有报道称，美国国防部赫格塞斯已召集来自世界各地的美国高级军官，于下周在弗吉尼亚州匡蒂 科举行会议，这是一次罕见的、将美国军方领导层聚集在一地的会议。 目前尚不清楚赫格塞斯为何在如此短的时间内命令将军和海军上将们到一处会面，两名官员表示，这在 预期的与会者中造成了不确定性。 一般来说，美国的高级军事官员有时指挥着数千名士兵，他们中的大多数人都有提前数周的详细日程安 排，而这些安排现在已被打乱。 一位要求匿名的美国官员说，"人们正紧急调整他们的计划，看看他们是否必须出席。" 目前尚不清楚将有多少官员实际出席这次活动，但将如此多的高级官员同时聚集在同一个房间里是罕见 的。 在白宫，美国副总统J.D. 万斯表示，这样的会议"一点也不罕见……奇怪的是你们却把它渲染成一个大 新闻"。 有记者问到关于美国国防部长赫格塞思召集美军全球高级将领下周集结开会的问题时，美国总统特朗普 回应称："我觉得这很好……这有什么问题吗？为什么要把它炒成大新闻？" 美国在世界各地都有驻军，包括在韩国、日本和整个中东等遥远的地方，这些部队由二星、三星和四星 的将军和海军上将指挥。 ...

Group 1 - The China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a special market analysis meeting on September 25, attended by representatives from key coking enterprises across various provinces [1] - The meeting focused on analyzing the supply-demand dynamics and price trends of the coke market in the current macroeconomic environment [1] - A decision was made to increase prices for different types of coke effective from September 26, with increases of 50 yuan/ton for wet quenching coke, 55 yuan/ton for dry quenching coke, 80 yuan/ton for top-loaded wet quenching coke, and 85 yuan/ton for top-loaded dry quenching coke [1] Group 2 - The industry recommends a production cut of over 30% across the coking sector, with measures such as reducing or halting shipments to customers who do not comply [1] - Coking enterprises are advised to adhere to the principle of "no production at a loss, no sales at a loss, and no credit sales" to maintain reasonable profit levels and a healthy development order within the industry [1]