韩国央行正面临房价高企以及消费者和商业情绪低迷的双重压力。周四，该行将基准利率维持在2.5% 不变。韩国央行行长李昌镛表示，"任何人都会同意"贝森特的评论。他说："很难认同对韩国经济和韩 元价值的悲观情绪。" 韩国财政部去年12月的月度经济趋势"绿皮书"强调了人工智能需求推动的半导体出口繁荣，称这掩盖了 其他行业的下滑。李昌镛还建议，为了防止外汇市场混乱，韩国在美国的投资（根据贸易协议上限为每 年200亿美元）可能会降低。 韩国当局将货币疲软归咎于该国散户投资者对美股的兴趣，因为交易员们都在追逐美国科技公司的收 益。 美国财政部长贝森特批评了韩元的疲软，称其贬值与该国"强劲的经济基本面"不符，并加剧了对这个亚 洲最大出口国之一的货币波动性的担忧。在贝森特发表上述评论后，韩元一度升值，但周四又有所回 落。 根据美国财政部的一份声明，贝森特在本周与韩国财政部长具润哲的会晤中"强调外汇市场的过度波动 是不可取的"。贝森特补充说，"近期韩元的贬值……与韩国强劲的经济基本面不符"。 IM证券研究员朴相贤在给客户的报告中写道，贝森特的干预"可能旨在支持韩国政府捍卫韩元的承 诺"，并有助于在短期内稳定货币。他说，"韩元的过 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett warns that the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) poses risks comparable to the geopolitical issues surrounding nuclear weapons throughout his career [1][2] Group 1: AI Risks - Buffett emphasizes that leaders in the AI field lack understanding of the technology's future trajectory, which is inherently dangerous [1] - He compares the uncertainty in AI development to Albert Einstein's reflections on the atomic bomb, stating that while inventions can change the world, they do not change human thinking [1] - Buffett notes that the proliferation of nuclear weapons has evolved from a single nation possessing them to eight countries, with a ninth on the way, highlighting the potential dangers of AI in the wrong hands [1] Group 2: Nuclear Weapons Concerns - Buffett expresses a willingness to use all his resources to eliminate nuclear weapons development in three willing countries, indicating the urgency he feels about the issue [2] - He has previously articulated concerns about the threat of nuclear, biological, or chemical attacks, which he considers a significant crisis for all Americans [2] - In past statements, Buffett has acknowledged the dual nature of AI, recognizing its potential for good while also warning of its significant risks [2] Group 3: Leadership Transition - Buffett announced that he will no longer attend Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meetings starting in 2025, with Greg Abel set to take over as CEO on January 1, 2026 [3]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing measures to support the real economy, including lowering the rates of structural monetary policy tools and expanding the quota for relending [1][2] - From January 19, 2026, the PBOC will reduce the rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with specific rates for different loan types [2] - The average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is currently 6.3%, indicating room for further reductions [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Price Stability - The PBOC emphasizes promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations in monetary policy [3] - Recent positive changes in price levels and improved supply-demand matching are expected to boost market confidence [3] Group 3: Support for Technological Innovation - The quota for relending aimed at technological innovation and transformation will increase by 400 billion yuan, raising the total to 1.2 trillion yuan [4] - Starting in 2026, private small and medium-sized enterprises with high R&D investment will be included in the support scope [4] Group 4: Financial Support for SMEs - The PBOC will merge the quotas for agricultural and small business relending with the rediscount quota, adding 500 billion yuan for agricultural and small business relending, with a separate quota of 1 trillion yuan for small and medium-sized private enterprises [5] - This arrangement aims to enhance the flexibility and efficiency of policy tool usage, addressing financing difficulties for SMEs [5] Group 5: Financing Costs and Real Estate Support - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans and personal housing loans is approximately 3.1%, showing a significant decrease compared to 2018 [7] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been lowered to 30% to support reasonable financing needs in the real estate market [8] Group 6: Green Finance Initiatives - The PBOC will include projects with direct carbon reduction effects in its carbon reduction support tool, with an annual operation volume not exceeding 800 billion yuan [9] Group 7: Liquidity Management - The PBOC will flexibly conduct government bond trading operations to maintain liquidity and create a favorable monetary environment for government bond issuance [10] Group 8: Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC reaffirms its commitment to a market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism, maintaining the stability of the RMB at a reasonable equilibrium level [11] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate within a dual-directional range, influenced by various external factors [11]

受中东地缘局势恐陷入深度恶化的担忧情绪驱动，国际油价在周三收盘时创下三个多月以来的最高水 平。 隔夜交易时段，由于有迹象显示美伊紧张关系出现缓和，美国基准的WTI原油盘中跳水，但美国军事干 预的潜在威胁仍牵动着华尔街的神经。鉴于美伊之间任何冲突火花都可能快速蔓延至这个石油资源富集 的地区，本周的油价跳涨，相当于给市场敲响了警钟——油价未来的上行空间不容小觑。 "历史经验告诉我们，对于石油市场而言，波斯湾地区的动荡从来都不会局限于局部。"金融咨询公司 deVereGroup首席执行官奈杰尔・格林（Nigel Green）表示。 单是伊朗一国，就对全球石油产量构成明确风险，同时在这个贡献了全球约30%石油供应的地区，伊朗 对于原油运输通道的畅通也起着关键作用。 根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据，伊朗拥有全球第三大已探明原油储量，在2023年是全球第九大石 油生产国，当年日均石油产量约为400万桶。 正因为如此，一家独立油气企业Allied Resource Partners的总裁里奇・塔巴卡（Rich Tabaka）指出，一 旦爆发冲突，供应中断的影响"可能从可控范围演变为系统性危机"。因为首轮冲击——伊朗石油 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普"不可预测"的政策，促使债券巨头太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）开始减持美国资产 以分散投资风险。与此同时，华尔街正忧心忡忡，密切关注特朗普抨击美联储所引发的长期后果。 "任何损害美联储独立性的行为，都绝非明智之举。"摩根大通首席执行官杰米・戴蒙（Jamie Dimon） 在周二表示，"在我看来，这种做法只会适得其反，最终会推升通胀预期，并且很可能导致长期利率走 高。" 某大型华尔街机构的资深交易员补充道，特朗普针对美联储的一系列举动，会削弱美联储的公信力，进 而损害其应对危机的能力。 "这些负面影响不会立刻显现，但一旦未来爆发危机或通胀预期升温，其破坏性就会彻底暴露。"他说 道。 伊万辛也表达了类似观点，他强调："美联储制定货币政策的独立性，对市场而言至关重要。" 他进一步阐释："尽管从表面上看，施压美联储降息似乎颇具诱惑力……但在经济强劲增长、通胀高企 的背景下，激进降息很可能会导致长期利率上升。" 华尔街高管们还警告称，向鲍威尔发出传票，其核心目的或许并非针对现任美联储主席，而是瞄准他的 继任者——市场担忧特朗普可能会试图向美联储下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may influence his decision to remain on the board after his term ends in May, amidst President Trump's attempts to pressure the Fed for interest rate cuts [1][8]. Group 1: Powell's Tenure and Market Reactions - Following the investigation news, the probability of Powell leaving the Federal Reserve by May 30 has dropped from 74% to 45%, and the likelihood of him leaving by the end of the year has decreased from 85% to 62% [1][3]. - Market participants are increasingly speculating that Powell may stay on the board for an extended period, potentially until 2028, to uphold the Fed's independence [8][10]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Implications - The pressure exerted on Powell by Trump may backfire, as premature interest rate cuts could lead to rising inflation, undermining the Fed's credibility [8]. - The investigation has brought the issue of the Fed's independence to the forefront, with Powell's potential decision to remain seen as a move to protect that independence [8][10]. Group 3: Nomination Dynamics - The probability of Kevin Hassett being nominated as the next Fed Chair has diminished, with Kevin Warsh gaining more support among potential candidates [4][7]. - Trump's proposal to nominate Hassett faces increasing challenges in the Senate, particularly due to Hassett's support for aggressive rate cuts [8][9].

Group 1 - The U.S. government, led by President Trump, has decided not to impose new tariffs on critical mineral imports after a months-long review aimed at assessing national security threats from foreign imports [1][2] - Trump is seeking to negotiate agreements with foreign countries to ensure a sufficient supply of critical minerals and to alleviate supply chain vulnerabilities, rather than relying solely on traditional percentage tariffs [1][2] - A proposed "price floor" mechanism will be established for critical mineral trade, which includes setting minimum import prices for specific materials and potentially imposing tariffs to mitigate supply chain risks [3] Group 2 - The announcement is seen as an effort to avoid disrupting the ongoing trade truce and may serve as a means for the government to rebuild the tariff system if the Supreme Court rejects Trump's previous global tariff policies [2] - The potential tariffs could target countries that artificially lower prices, effectively raising the cost of imported products to support other foreign suppliers and create a viable price floor [3] - The announcement may also impact the uranium market, as uranium is identified as a critical mineral essential for the energy sector, especially with the increasing demand for nuclear power to meet the energy needs of artificial intelligence [3]

微软(MSFT.O)最近三个⽉股价下跌约10％，触及7个多月低点，对应软件板块持续疲软。但是，摩根⼠ 坦利分析师称，当问到信息技术主管会把新增AI预算投向哪里时，他们最常提到的仍然是微软。 1月14日，该公司股价下跌2.4%，收于459.38美元，为2022年5月以来的最低水平。分析师基思·怀斯 （Keith Weiss）周三表示： "随着更多业务迁移至云端，微软与亚马逊仍然是明确受益者。" 在生成式AI产品方面，92％的CIO预计未来12个月将采用微软提供的工具。热门选项包括微软365 Copilot办公助手、用于编码的Github Copilot，以及允许企业运行模型的Azure OpenAI Services。 尽管如此，市场对微软及与ChatGPT相关的软件股仍持怀疑态度。不过，高盛近期将微软的目标价上调 至655美元，认为微软对AI初创公司Anthropic的投资以及自身内部AI模型的开发，使其在AI领域的布局 更加多元化，减少了对OpenAI的依赖。 "微软仍然最有优势拿下更多的生成式AI支出和IT预算，但这一点并没有反映在股价中。" 他指出，微软股价仅按明年GAAP盈利预期的23倍交易，无论绝对 ...

Core Viewpoint - xAI has decided to restrict its Grok feature from generating real-life sexualized images on the social platform X due to consumer backlash and regulatory investigations [1][3] Group 1: Company Actions - xAI implemented technical measures to prevent Grok accounts from editing real images to display revealing clothing such as bikinis [1] - The image generation and editing feature on Grok will only be available to paid subscribers [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Legal Context - The California Attorney General Rob Bonta announced an investigation into xAI for allegedly producing non-consensual intimate deepfake content on a large scale [3] - Several countries, including India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Ireland, the UK, France, Australia, and the European Commission, have initiated investigations into Grok [3] - Indonesia and Malaysia have imposed temporary bans on Grok [3] Group 3: Political Reactions - California Governor Gavin Newsom criticized xAI for creating a platform that spreads non-consensual AI-generated pornographic deepfake content, including images of children [3] - Three Democratic senators in the U.S. have called for Apple and Google to remove the X and Grok applications from their app stores until the company takes measures to prevent the easy generation of explicit images [3] Group 4: Public Statements - Elon Musk provocatively suggested that Grok should allow fictional adult nudity under an NSFW mode, comparing it to scenes commonly found in rated R movies [3][4] - Musk indicated that Grok's settings would vary according to local laws in different regions [4]

"但它们此前涨得太猛，现在只是稍作休整。" 克莱默表示，他对这些跌幅并不过分担忧，因为许多大型银行此前涨幅巨大，"早就该回调一下了"。截 至周三美股收盘，摩根大通下跌0.97％，富国银行下跌4.61％，美国银行下跌3.78％，花旗集团下跌 3.34％。 以下是克莱默对本周公布财报的几家大型银行分析： 摩根大通 CNBC"名嘴"财经主持人吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）周三解读了摩根大通(JPM.N)、富国银行(WFC.N)、 美国银行(BAC.N)和花旗集团(C.N)的财报表现，这些银行股当日均走低。 他表示，财报数据本身稳健，但投资者此前预期很高，加之管理层释出的谨慎言论，使市场情绪受到打 击。"看完数据后，我的判断是，只要经济不要从当前水平恶化，这些银行股今年仍然能继续表现。"他 说， 尽管摩根大通在盈利和收入方面均超预期，但投资银行业务逊于市场预期。克莱默表示，该业务受债券 与股票承销疲软拖累。首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）提到严峻的地缘政治风险和美国不断膨胀 的预算赤字，这可能也导致股价下挫。 富国银行 富国银行在收入和盈利方面均未达标，克莱默将利润不足的大部分原因归于更高的遣散支 ...