Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices have dropped to near five-year lows due to a global supply surplus, which may help slow production growth and boost demand, potentially alleviating the expected supply surplus by 2026 [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of December 12, the active oil rig count in the U.S. has decreased by approximately 14% compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential reduction in supply [1] - The WTI crude oil contract for January delivery closed at $55.27 per barrel, while the Brent crude contract for February delivery closed at $58.92 per barrel, marking the lowest levels since February 2021 [2] - The decline in oil prices this year is primarily attributed to a supply surplus combined with weak market sentiment, exacerbated by OPEC+ policies [2] Group 2: OPEC+ Influence - OPEC+ has accelerated the increase of production quotas earlier and faster than expected, contributing to the oversupply in the market and driving down oil prices [4] - Non-OPEC supply, particularly from the U.S., has remained strong due to improved efficiency among shale oil producers, further expanding the supply surplus [4] - OPEC+ aims to prevent further loss of market share and address the issue of excess idle capacity, which is projected to be 4.6 million barrels per day in 2024, more than double the 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation of continued global supply surplus is putting pressure on oil prices, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting a surplus of approximately 2.3 million barrels per day this year, increasing to 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026 [7] - The initial phase of oil trading in 2026 is expected to be dominated by rising inventories, which will continue to exert pressure on prices in the short term [8] - The market may face challenges in achieving supply-demand balance, with potential for significant price volatility, contingent on meaningful changes in supply, demand, or policy [8]

Core Insights - The upcoming November CPI report is anticipated to have limited impact on the stock market, with traders expecting a volatility of only 0.7% for the S&P 500 index, significantly lower than the 1% average seen in previous reports [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted towards labor market signals rather than minor fluctuations in inflation rates, indicating a potential for interest rate stability in the near future [3][4] - The reliability of the November CPI report is questioned due to the absence of October data, which may affect the overall assessment of inflation trends [3][4] Market Sentiment - Market participants are adopting a more indifferent stance towards the CPI data, suggesting that it may be deemed either unimportant or unreliable [3][4] - The sentiment is further influenced by the ongoing low employment growth and rising unemployment rates, which reflect a cooling labor market [4][5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in January, as policymakers are likely to wait for more comprehensive economic data before making decisions [3][4] - Some Fed officials continue to emphasize the importance of inflation, with concerns about tariffs impacting prices, while others focus on employment risks [4][5] Expectations for CPI Data - Analysts predict that the year-on-year CPI increase will remain around 3%, with any significant deviation potentially surprising traders [5][6] - The importance of CPI reports is diminishing as the Federal Reserve prepares for a leadership change, which may lead to a more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts [5][6] Seasonal Factors - Seasonal trends may also contribute to the muted expectations for the CPI data, as the stock market approaches a traditional bull market phase [7] - The S&P 500 index has recently experienced a decline, closing just 1.5% below its historical high, indicating a potential for upward movement [8]

Core Viewpoint - Silver is currently experiencing a structural shortage combined with a surge in industrial demand, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, data centers, and artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Structural Shortage and Industrial Demand - UBS indicates that silver benefits from the same investment demand factors as gold, particularly low interest rates, and will also gain from industrial demand growth due to monetary and fiscal stimulus [2] - The Silver Institute forecasts a significant increase in silver demand for photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and data centers/artificial intelligence in the coming years [2] - Morgan Stanley expects investment demand for silver to continue driving prices upward, as low inventories may lead to physical shortages [2] - Analyst Eamonn Sheridan notes that the rare combination of persistent supply shortages and strong demand from both industries and investors supports the current rise in silver prices [2] - Ewa Manthey from ING highlights that silver's supply elasticity is insufficient, making it difficult to increase production independently unless output from related metals also rises [2] - Michele Schneider from MarketGauge states that silver has become a critical industrial metal, with technology companies expected to invest $700 billion in AI infrastructure, which may be hindered by insufficient silver supply [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Speculative Flows - Brian Lan from GoldSilver Central believes that the recent rise in silver prices is a result of speculative flows [3] - Kunal Shah from Nirmal Bang Commodities reports a severe short squeeze in the silver market [3] - Trevor Yates from Global X ETFs notes that Western investors are shifting from long-term underexposure to a rush into silver ETFs, indicating significant future inflows [3] - Deutsche Bank reports that global exchange silver inventories have dropped to near a ten-year low, while silver ETF holdings surged by 1,145 tons in one month, driving prices higher [3] Group 3: Outlook and Price Targets - Standard Chartered suggests that while the gold-silver ratio appears slightly oversold, silver still has room to rise relative to gold, maintaining a positive outlook for silver prices but cautioning against short-term volatility [4] - Deutsche Bank observes that the gold-silver ratio has fallen to a new low since 2021, slightly above the 50-year average, indicating caution in the short term despite a favorable long-term outlook [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that silver shortages will peak by 2025, with expectations that silver will underperform gold next year [4] - Ed Meir from Marex Group notes that the current volatility in silver's upward trend makes it difficult to determine where the rise will end [4] - Avi Gilburt from ElliWaveTrader suggests that the gold-silver bull market may conclude by 2026, with an ideal target around $75 to $80, representing a potential "emotional top" [4] - Kunal Shah from Nirmal Bang Commodities anticipates that current trends may push silver prices towards $70 in the short term [4][5] - Michele Schneider from MarketGauge posits that the gold-silver ratio could drop to 40, indicating significant upside potential for silver prices, potentially reaching $75 by 2026, with any adjustments viewed as buying opportunities [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. is preparing a new round of sanctions against the Russian energy sector, contingent on President Putin's willingness to negotiate a peace agreement with Ukraine [2][4] - Proposed sanctions may target oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet" and traders facilitating oil transactions, with potential announcements expected soon [2][4] - Previous sanctions have not altered Putin's decision-making but have significantly pressured the Russian economy, leading to a drop in oil prices to their lowest levels since the conflict began [4][8] Group 2 - U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators have made progress on potential peace agreement terms, with discussions focusing on post-war security guarantees for Ukraine [7][9] - Key points of contention in negotiations include the future status of eastern Ukrainian territories, the use of frozen Russian assets, and the management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant [7][8] - The U.S. has sanctioned four major Russian oil producers and collaborated with G7 nations to sanction hundreds of vessels involved in transporting Russian oil [9]

Core Points - The UK inflation rate has dropped to its lowest level in eight months, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 3.2% year-on-year in November, down from 3.6% in October, primarily due to falling prices of cakes, biscuits, and breakfast cereals [1][4] - This unexpected decline in inflation has led traders to believe that a rate cut by the Bank of England is now almost certain, with the market fully pricing in two rate cuts by the end of April next year [4][6] Group 1 - The inflation rate of 3.2% is below economists' expectations of 3.5% and the Bank of England's forecast of 3.4%, resulting in a 0.7% drop in the GBP/USD exchange rate [4] - The Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics noted that the speed of inflation decline was faster than anticipated, suggesting that this would likely prompt the Bank of England to consider a rate cut [6] - The service sector prices increased by 4.4% year-on-year, slightly better than the Bank of England's current expectation of 4.5%, providing crucial data ahead of the Bank's decision [6] Group 2 - The UK economy contracted for the second consecutive month in October, influenced by market speculation ahead of the budget announcement, which aims to alleviate cost-of-living pressures [7] - The Bank of England's preliminary analysis indicates that government policies could reduce the inflation rate by up to 0.5 percentage points by next spring [8] - Producer input prices have continued to rise, with fuel and raw material costs increasing by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth in over a year [8] Group 3 - The Chief Economist at RSM UK suggested that while December's inflation rate might see a slight uptick due to tobacco tax and potential food price rebounds, the significant drop in November's inflation opens the door for further rate cuts in early next year [9] - Analysts from Bloomberg indicated that the substantial slowdown in November's inflation sets the stage for a rate cut by the Bank of England in December, although they expect only one more cut next year due to lingering cost pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is not collapsing but has entered a stagnation phase, showing no significant growth or decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing modestly by 64,000 in November after a decrease of approximately 105,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in four years [1][2]. Group 1 - The stagnation in the labor market is more dangerous than it appears, as there is a complete lack of forward momentum, with net hiring showing minimal progress throughout the year [2]. - The unemployment rate continues to rise despite a growing labor force, indicating weak demand rather than mass layoffs or hiring freezes [2][5]. - Goldman Sachs analysts have warned that the U.S. is entering a "no job growth" phase, where productivity is replacing labor, potentially leading to long-term resistance to labor demand [3]. Group 2 - Since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate has increased by approximately 0.6 percentage points, which, although gradual, has significant implications [4]. - The economy is still growing, supported by structural productivity improvements and significant investments in artificial intelligence, allowing businesses to increase output without significantly increasing headcount [5]. - There has been a notable increase in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons, rising by nearly 1 million to 5.5 million in November, indicating a trend of reduced hours or inability to find full-time work [5][6]. Group 3 - The stagnation in job creation could be as dangerous as a recession, as rising unemployment may undermine consumer confidence over time [6]. - The risk of an economic recession is concerning, with the current economic stability partly due to the AI investment boom, which has bolstered household wealth [7]. - If the boost from AI investments diminishes, the economy may struggle to find new growth drivers, potentially leading to recession risks [8].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 德国总理默茨在接受采访时表示，根据美国和欧洲向乌克兰提供的停火后保障，维和部队在某些情况下 可能会击退俄罗斯军队，但他补充说这仍然是一个遥远的前景。 但默茨表示，美国任何孤立主义倾向都不太可能持续下去。"'美国优先'固然很好，但'美国孤立'对其自 身也不利，"他说。"看看美国的经济数据，我可以想象美国人最终会找上我们说，'我们难道不想谈谈 那些对我们双方都有利的问题吗？'" 他说，"我们将确保交战双方之间建立一个非军事区，具体来说，我们也会针对相应的俄罗斯入侵和攻 击采取行动。我们目前还没到那一步。美国做出了这样的承诺，即在停火的情况下保护乌克兰，就像保 护北约领土一样。我认为这是一个值得注意的新立场。" 俄罗斯尚未同意停火（美欧均表示这是任何安全保障的前提条件），也未同意西方军队驻扎在乌克兰以 帮助结束这场全面冲突。 默茨表示，他认为达成欧洲协议以利用被冻结的俄罗斯资产资助乌克兰持续国防的机会是"五五开"。他 补充说，这样做至关重要，因为在当前的欧洲资金于2026年第一季度耗尽后，乌克兰至少还需要两年的 资金支持。 "整个欧洲都存在保留意见，我很能理 ...

Core Points - Vice President Vance visited Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, to defend the economic messaging of the Trump administration amidst disappointing employment reports and rising inflation [1] - Vance acknowledged that most Americans do not feel better off under the current administration and urged patience, emphasizing the administration's commitment to improving the lives of hardworking Americans [2] - Supporters in swing states like Pennsylvania may help Vance lay the groundwork for a potential presidential run in 2028, although he remains focused on the upcoming midterm elections [3] Economic Messaging - Vance defended Trump's protectionist trade policies and highlighted tax cuts from the "Big and Beautiful Act," asserting that federal efforts to combat illegal immigration would alleviate pressure on public services and the housing market [2] - The event took place at a warehouse owned by Uline, a significant Republican donor, which underscores the connection between business interests and political support [3] Public Sentiment - While some attendees supported Vance's message, others expressed skepticism about Trump's economic policies, indicating that the effectiveness of tariffs remains uncertain [3] - A warehouse worker criticized the administration's claims, stating that prices remain high and that the cost of groceries continues to burden consumers [4] Overall Outlook - Vance aims to portray a positive economic outlook for the U.S. and remains a loyal defender of Trump's administration, echoing Trump's self-assessment of economic performance as "A+++++" [5]

美国股市全天候交易的时代正加速逼近，但并非所有华尔街人士都对此张开双臂欢迎。 海外投资者的福音？ 推动全天候交易的支持者认为，这将允许散户和机构投资者，尤其是那些身处美国境外的投资者对美国 市场交易时段以外发生的突发新闻做出更快的反应。然而，市场结构专家和大银行的高管警告称，交易 质量将受到夜间流动性稀缺的影响，这可能导致定价不那么精准，他们同时也对需求表示怀疑。 Evercore ISI电子交易主管Brian Suth表示："我们不会改变所有的系统和盘后流程，延长一切，并雇人通 宵工作。"他表示目前没有看到机构对此类交易的需求。 尽管股市正迈向明年晚些时候全面推出近乎不间断的交易，且交易所正摩拳擦掌，但几家美国最大的银 行不愿积极推动全天候股票交易。 纳斯达克周一向监管机构提交文件，申请将工作日的交易时间延长至每天23小时，这是全球主要交易所 首次推动工作日不间断交易，背景是近年来全球投资者强烈要求更便捷地进入美国资本市场，这促使监 管机构出台新规，并批准大型交易所延长交易时间的提案。 风险拷问 尽管美国交易所、清算所和市场基础设施公司正在规划技术路径和基建，但一些大型美国交易商对这一 举措的风险提出了质疑 ...

周三，沐曦股份作为"中国GPU四小龙之一"正式登陆A股科创板，发行价104.66元/股，是年内第二高发 行价新股。以开盘价700元/股计算，中一签可赚29.77万元，成为年内最赚钱的新股。 截止发稿，该股仍在持续走强，盘中最高一度拉升约755%，总市值近3400亿元，超过摩尔线程。 沐曦股份此次公开发行4010万股新股，募资规模约42亿元。公司计划将这些资金主要用于新型高性能通 用GPU及人工智能推理GPU的研发与产业化。 从过会到获得批文，沐曦股份仅用时20天，速度比此前备受关注的摩尔线程（34天）更快。在申购方 面，沐曦股份的网上发行最终中签率仅为0.03348913%，比摩尔线程的0.03635054%还低。即便如此， 仍有20349股遭网上投资者放弃认购。而网下申购倍数高达2227.6倍，较摩尔线程的1572倍更加炙手可 热。 凭借其核心团队在高性能GPU芯片领域的深厚技术积淀，迅速成为创投圈的"潜力标的"。其"AMD血 统"技术基因吸引了资本密集加持，公司此前已完成十余轮融资，股东超过120家，包括红杉中国、经纬 创投、国寿资本等知名机构。 据了解，沐曦股份致力于自主研发全栈高性能GPU芯片及计算平 ...