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【申万宏源策略 | 国内政策】励精图治—十五五规划十大投资机会梳理
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-11 03:23
Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the investment opportunities and strategic directions for China's "14th Five-Year Plan" (十四五) and "15th Five-Year Plan" (十五五), emphasizing the importance of emerging industries and future technologies as key drivers for economic growth and development in the coming decade [1][24]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Great Power Responsibility - The article highlights China's transition from being an adapter of global rules to a co-builder and responsible stakeholder in international governance, as evidenced by recent speeches from Chinese leaders [2][3]. Comparison of 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans - The 15th Five-Year Plan places greater emphasis on modernizing the industrial system and enhancing technological self-reliance, reflecting a shift in priorities compared to the previous plan [8][10]. Top Ten Investment Directions of the 15th Five-Year Plan - The article identifies ten key sectors for investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan, including: 1. Artificial Intelligence 2. Robotics 3. Aerospace 4. Drones/Low-altitude Economy 5. Strategic Resource Metals 6. Shipping 7. Controlled Nuclear Fusion 8. Energy Storage 9. Brain-Computer Interfaces 10. Innovative Pharmaceuticals [1][24][25]. Emerging Pillar Industries and Future Industries - The plan aims to develop emerging pillar industries such as new energy and new materials, which are expected to create trillion-yuan markets. It also emphasizes the need for forward-looking layouts in future industries like quantum technology and hydrogen energy [24][27]. Focus on Future Industries - The article stresses the importance of focusing on future industries, including future information, future space and security, future energy, and future health, as key areas for capital market attention [28][29]. National Security and Technological Development - The article discusses the integration of national security with technological advancements, particularly in aerospace and defense, highlighting the need for a robust national security framework that supports innovation and development in these sectors [11][18][35]. Conclusion - The overall message of the article is that the 15th Five-Year Plan represents a significant opportunity for investment in emerging technologies and industries, which are crucial for China's economic transformation and global competitiveness in the next decade [24][27].
申万宏源证券荣获南方周末“2025年券商‘守门人’总榜TOP5”
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-11 03:23
免责声明 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 长按识别二维码,关注我们 12月5日,南方周末"第三届新金融大会"在北京召开,申万宏源凭借核心业务能 力、合规监管、长期价值三大维度的突出表现,成功入选 "2025年券商'守门人'总榜 TOP5"(排名第三) 。 该榜单覆盖近5年A股IPO投行核心参与者,通过8个子指标综合测评70家券商,核心业务能力权重居首。这份荣誉是对申万宏源坚守金 融本源、践行国家战略的高度认可。 未来,申万宏源将持续坚守"发现价值、传递价值、守护价值"初心,强化合规风控与专业创新能力,在 服务实体经济、推动高质量发展征程中展现更大作为。 来源:申万宏源证券 ...
申万宏源荣获“价值共创”可持续金融产品奖项
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-11 03:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recognition of Shenwan Hongyuan's achievements in ESG and sustainable development, particularly through its carbon financial services that support green development [5]. - The "Value Co-Creation" award is the first of its kind in China, focusing on sustainable practices across various industries, evaluated by experts from academia and industry [3]. - Shenwan Hongyuan has been actively promoting carbon financial products to guide investments towards renewable energy and green industries, contributing to the national "dual carbon" goals [4]. Group 2 - The company has diversified its carbon financial services, including carbon quota repurchase and CCER trading, to support the green transformation of enterprises [4]. - In its operational management, Shenwan Hongyuan implements energy-saving measures and waste reduction practices, achieving international recognition with the LEED O+M Gold certification for its Beijing headquarters [4]. - The company aims to leverage its comprehensive business licenses and extensive network to meet enterprise needs and promote the realization of energy-saving and emission reduction project values [5].
期权价格的泰勒展式
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-11 03:23
(2)"父母"的言传身教:标的证券价 格(S) 、标的证券价格的波动率(σ) ; (3) 社会大环境的熏陶: 无风险收益 率(r)。 期权作为标的证券的"孩子",其脾气 秉性自然受三方面的影响: 泰勒展式 (1) 自身"基因"的制约: 权利属性 (认购还是认沽)、行权价 (K)、到期 时间(T) ; 我们已经知道了希腊字母就是期权价 格(V) 关于上述五个变量的敏感性度量指 标。可是,如果我们希望用一个公式把期 权价格变化与5个希腊字母关联起来,那 么这就需要求助于高等数学中的泰勒 (Taylor) 公式了。我们设期权价格在[t, t+△t]期间的变化量为△V,标的证券价 格在此期间的变化量为△S,利率变化量 为△r,标的波动率变化量为△σ,在隐去 一些高阶项后,可以表述为: △V= Delta × △S+ = × Gamma × △S + Vega × △ σ +Theta × △t+ Rho × △r 希腊字母归因分析 我们通过一个例子来看一下如何运用 泰勒展式来做期权价格变动的希腊字母归 因分析。 根据泰勒展式可得一张期权价格的变 化: △V= [0.3826×0.02+ >×1.9909×0.022+ ...
申万宏源证券荣获南方周末“2025年券商‘守门人’总榜TOP5”
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-11 03:23
该榜单覆盖近5年A股IPO投行核心参与者,通过8个子指标综合测评70家券商,核心业务能力权 重居首。这份荣誉是对申万宏源坚守金融本源、践行国家战略的高度认可。 未来,申万宏源将持续坚 守"发现价值、传递价值、守护价值"初心,强化合规风控与专业创新能力,在服务实体经济、推动高 质量发展征程中展现更大作为。 12月5日,南方周末"第三届新金融大会"在北京召开,公司凭借核心业务能力、合规监管、长期 价值三大维度的突出表现,成功入选 "2025年券商'守门人'总榜TOP5"(排名第三) 。 来源:申万宏源证券 ...
申万宏源研究获21世纪金牌分析师评选多项大奖
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-11 03:23
申万宏源研究获21世纪金牌分析师评选 多项大奖 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 长按识别二维码,关注我们 12月6日,21世纪经济报道主办的2025年第五届"21世纪金牌分析师"评选结果正 式揭晓。 申万宏源研究荣获"年度践行金融五篇大文章最佳研究机构"、"年度影响力 券商研究所"2项团体奖。申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟荣获"年度服务高质量发展 最佳首席经济学家"奖项。 研究领域榜单中,地产与建筑、交通物流获得第二名;石油化工、金融工程与衍 生品、国防军工获得第三名;轻工与纺织服装、策略研究、基础化工、传媒互联网获 得第四名;北交所、环保获得第五名。 2025第五届21世纪金牌分析师评选由《21世纪经济报道》发起的年度评选盛事, 恪守专业、公正、透明的原则,为广大投资者甄选出最具实力与价值的分析师及研究 机构。本届评选由来自公募基金、保险公司、私募机构、银行理财子公司,以及学界 与上市公司核心高管组成的权威专家委员会,共同为评选结果的专业与公正保驾护 航。 上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司(简称"申万宏源研究")创建于1992年,隶属于申 万宏源证券有限公司,是中国大陆成立早、规模大、具有独立法人 ...
早盘直击|今日行情关注
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-11 03:23
Market Overview - The short-term market is characterized by a transitional year-end trend, primarily marked by low trading volume and narrow fluctuations [1] - Following a slight market decline on Tuesday, the market showed resilience with a rebound led by the real estate sector, resulting in a narrowing of losses and a positive close for the Shenzhen Composite Index [1] - Investor expectations for the market in the coming year remain high, with no significant short-selling pressure observed in the short term [1] Sector Performance - The real estate sector has emerged strongly, driven by both a rebound effect and market anticipation of increased policy support for the sector [1] - Other consumer sectors, such as commercial retail and education, have also shown signs of rotation, indicating a higher likelihood of short-term volatility [1] - In contrast, sectors such as power equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment experienced declines after initial gains, reflecting a rotational market behavior [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its consolidation phase, focusing on stability [1] - Technical indicators show a decrease in trading volume, suggesting an increased atmosphere of caution among investors [1] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming release of macroeconomic data for November and the alignment of market hotspots with trading volume [1]
新股日历|今日新股/新债提示
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-11 03:23
Group 1 - The article discusses the issuance of convertible bonds by Shenyu Co. and Aohong Electronics, highlighting their respective bond ratings and conversion prices [2][3] - Shenyu Co. has issued a convertible bond with a conversion price of 100.00 yuan and a bond rating of AA- [2][3] - Aohong Electronics has also issued a convertible bond with a conversion price of 100.00 yuan and a bond rating of AA- [2][3]
“申”度解盘 | 布局春季行情
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-10 02:31
Market Overview - In November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight adjustment, closing at 3888.60 points, down 1.67% from the end of October 2025. The average daily trading volume in Shanghai was 806.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% month-on-month [5][10]. - The CSI 300 Index remained flat in October, with an average daily trading volume of 463.8 billion yuan, down 26.1% from the previous month [9][10]. Global Economic Influences - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has significantly influenced global capital markets. Following a hawkish statement from Fed Chairman Powell, the probability of a rate cut dropped, leading to market adjustments. However, dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams on November 21 raised the probability of a December cut to nearly 70%, prompting a market recovery [5][11]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index rose to 5.74 at the end of October, marking a slight increase and indicating a decrease in investor risk appetite. This increase has occurred for two consecutive months, suggesting a potential phase of adjustment before a spring market rally [6][14]. Market Profitability - In November, the number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% decreased to 218, an 8% decline, indicating a return to a consolidation phase. However, the number of stocks with gains over 50% increased, suggesting that while overall profitability is down, specific sectors may be gaining strength [6][16]. Trading Volume Trends - The average daily trading volume fell for the second consecutive month, reaching 1914.7 billion yuan, a decline of 11.5% from October. This trend aligns with the market's price performance, indicating a typical relationship where volume and price movements are positively correlated [6][18]. Price Movement Analysis - The current market rally has not yet reached the average growth levels seen in previous major uptrends. Historical data shows that the average price increase for stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during uptrends is approximately 115% over 30 months, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange sees an average increase of 172% over 29 months. The current rally has seen gains of 87% in Shanghai and 118% in Shenzhen since the "924" market [7][20]. Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance in November, breaking below the 60-day moving average and leaving a gap on the daily chart. The previous market high from 2021 has become a significant support level, while the pressure point remains at the November high [8][24]. - The CSI 300 Index also showed clear signs of adjustment in November, breaking below the 60-day moving average and leaving two downward gaps. The primary technical resistance is at the range established during the second half of 2021, with support near the six-month moving average [8][26].
权益守成待机,债券缘何下跌?丨周度量化观察
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-12-10 02:31
权权益益守守成成待待机机,,债债券券缘缘何何下下跌跌?? 22002255年年1122月月11日日--22002255年年1122月月55日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股市场略有回升,债市走弱,黄金高位震荡,美股小幅上涨。具体来看,市场有以下几 个重要方面: 01 本周A股市场略有回升,但沪深两市日均成交金额延续回落,上证指数仍未修复11月21日的 跳空缺口,A股市场处于10月高点与11月低点间进行震荡整理。申万一级行业上,有色金 属、通信、国防军工行业涨幅居前,传媒、房地产、美容护理跌幅居前。本周国证价值上涨 1.19%,国证成长上涨1.62%,成长风格占优。恒生指数上涨0.87%,万得全A上涨 0.72%,港股表现略强于A股。 02 债市方面,本周适逢月初资金面整体均衡偏松,债市下跌为主,利率债表现弱于信用债,超 长债大幅走弱,国债期货同步走弱,预计纯债基金收负。基本面上,从目前披露的经济数据 来看,基本面修复动能仍然偏弱。资金面上,本周适逢月初,资金面整体均衡偏松。情绪面 上,市场对于十五五规划及财政发力有一定预期,进而延伸到对于长债供给的担忧,叠加公 募新规仍尚未定论,市场情绪较为脆弱。 03 ...