【 摘要 】摩根资产管理李德辉认为，短期回调或不改长期投资机遇，A股整体仍处于一个健康的 上行通道中。摩根士丹利基金吴慧文指出，债券市场已从单边行情进入低利率、低波动、低利差 的震荡周期，进入"交易为王时代"。 图片 一、焦点锐评 图片 1．前10月工业企业利润同比增长1.9%，增速回落 11月27日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，1-10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长1.9%，前 值增长3.2%。从三大门类看，1-10月份，采矿业下降27.8%，降幅较1-9月份收窄1.5个百分 点；制造业增长7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长9.5%。10月份，受上年同期基 数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。 【解读】中金公司张文朗团队认为，工业企业利润增速显著回落，利润下滑主要由营收收缩 （-3.3%）、费用率上升（+0.38个百分点）及投资收益骤降（10月其他损益降至201亿元，较9 月回落近60%）共同驱动。结构分化，采矿业利润降幅收窄，有色开采保持29.7%高增长，煤炭 与油气仍处下行；制造业全链条利润承压，上游与中游受投资收益与费用拖累显著，下游消费品 降幅 ...

中国11月官方储备资产数据将于 12月7日 公布。此前央行数据显示，中国10月末黄金储备报7409万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第12 个月增持黄金。10月末外汇储备3.343万亿美元，9月末为3.339万亿美元。 央行公开市场将有15118亿元逆回购到期 // 市场要闻 // 中国官方PMI表现平稳，本周关注RatingDog PMI 国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会于11月30日发布了中国采购经理指数。11月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.2%，较上 月上升0.2个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，较上月下降0.6个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为49.7%， 较 上月下降0.3个百分点， 我国经济景气水平总体平稳。 而在12月1日，中国将发布11月RatingDog制造业PMI，此前该指数已连续三个月站稳荣枯线，10月录得50.6，显示扩张态势延续但增速放 缓，新业务与产出动力减弱。市场正观察本轮修复势头的可持续性。同时，市场也将关注12月3日公布的中国11月RatingDog服务业/综合 PMI。 中国11月官方储备资产数据将公布 Wind数据显示，本周央行公开市场将有15118亿元 ...

1、 12月一批新规将实施。资源税征管新规12月1日起施行，明确部分情形不缴纳资源税 ；《证券结算风险基金管理办法》12月8日起施行，调整计收范围 和交纳比例等；海南自贸港12月18日启动全岛封关运作；《市场监督管理信用修复管理办法》12月25日起施行，扩大信用修复范围等。 1、 国家统计局发布数据显示，11月份我国制造业PMI为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点； 非制造业PMI为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点；综合PMI产 出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平稳。 7、 中信建投发布研报表示，尽管市场短期可能仍有波动，但如有下跌则是更好的布局机会。 慢牛格局仍未改变，明年春季躁动在共识下有望提前。可在 12月中旬关键会议之前择机布局，备战跨年行情。重点布局科技成长和资源品等景气赛道。行业重点关注：有色（铜、银）、AI（通信、计算机）、新 能源、创新药、机械设备、港股互联网、化工等。主题重点关注：商业航天。 2、 国家发改委负责人表示，鼓励支持引导广大民营企业把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革、超大规模国内市场、城乡区域协调发展等民间投资发展机遇， 进一步拓宽市场准入空间、 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Industry Selection - In 2026, AI is expected to significantly drive growth in the computer industry, resonating with high-growth sectors such as domestic production, quantum technology, financial IT, and intelligent driving [2] - The rapid iteration of models and high demand for computing power may accelerate commercialization [2] - The advancement of industrial software into a "deep water zone" is anticipated to support the strategy of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse [2] - These dynamics could collectively promote both performance and valuation recovery in the industry [2] Group 2: Real Estate Strategy for 2026 - The real estate sector is projected to transition from "scale expansion" to a new phase of "quality efficiency" in 2026 [5] - Policy tools are expected to achieve a "bottom line + quality improvement" dual drive through affordable housing and urban renewal [5] - Core cities' improved residential properties may become new anchors for capital amidst differentiated demand [5] - Following supply clearance, the increase in industry concentration is likely to reshape the competitive landscape of real estate companies [5] - REITs and light asset models are anticipated to initiate a new investment logic characterized by "low volatility and stable returns" [5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Outlook for 2026 - The article discusses when the oversupply of oil may reach an inflection point and the marginal shifts in supply and demand expected next year, along with the equilibrium price of oil [7] - A global LNG expansion wave is anticipated, with ongoing interest in gas turbines, presenting opportunities in the European and American natural gas markets [7] Group 4: AI and Market Strategy - The article explores concerns regarding the AI bubble and how traditional macro strategy frameworks may fail to capture AI's impact [9] - Beyond the "bubble theory," the debt-driven growth associated with AI is expected to create various opportunities [9]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 301.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 28, with a total bid amount of 301.3 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 301.3 billion yuan. On the same day, 375 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 73.7 billion yuan. The net withdrawal for the week reached 164.2 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - The interbank market liquidity remains ample, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping nearly 1 basis point to a low of 1.3%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system are maintained at 1.28%, with a supply scale close to 200 billion yuan. Prices for overnight funds secured by credit bonds have increased, currently reported around 1.55%-1.58%. Overall liquidity is stable despite some upward pressure on non-bank overnight funding rates due to month-end effects [3][4]. Group 3: Interbank Rates and Bonds - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit transactions are at 1.65%, unchanged from the previous day. Major interbank interest rate bonds have seen yields decline [8][10]. The main contracts for government bonds show mixed performance, with the 30-year contract up by 0.05%, the 10-year contract up by 0.03%, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts have decreased by 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively [12]. Group 4: Corporate and Regulatory Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party held a meeting on November 28 to review a comprehensive report on the situation of the 20th Central Inspection in provinces and municipalities. From January to October, state-owned enterprises reported total operating income of 6.8353 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while total profits decreased by 3.0% to 342.144 billion yuan. The asset-liability ratio for state-owned enterprises rose by 0.4 percentage points to 65.2% by the end of October [13][14]. Group 5: Global Economic Insights - Japan's Ministry of Finance announced a revision to its bond issuance plan, increasing the issuance of 2-year and 5-year bonds by 300 billion yen each for the fiscal year 2025, raising the total bond issuance scale by 6.3 trillion yen [16]. In South Korea, government tax revenue from January to October reached 330.7 trillion won, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, primarily driven by a rise in corporate tax revenue [17].

Core Insights - Wind continues to provide high-quality online courses for global users, with regular live sessions scheduled weekly [2] - The article highlights upcoming courses in December 2025 and notable replays from November, aimed at helping participants explore opportunities with global financial elites [2] December Course Preview - Course on "Commodity Competitiveness Code: Factor Decomposition × Agent Practical Training" scheduled for December 4, 16:00 [3] - Course on "Alice Advisor: AI-Driven Asset Intelligent Allocation" scheduled for December 11, 16:00 [3] - Course on "Wind Excel Plugin: Knowledge and Strategy" scheduled for December 18, 16:00 [3] - Course on "Agent-Driven Fund Precision Screening and Practical Strategies" scheduled for December 25, 16:00 [3] November Highlights - Courses included "AI Screening for Client Acquisition: Winning the First Step" and "AI Intelligent Risk Control Practice: Empowering the Full Credit Process" [5] - Additional highlights featured "Wind Alice: Mastering Search, Reading, and Writing" and "AI + Wind Data: A New Paradigm for Global Asset Allocation" [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strong performance last week, with major indices generally rising. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.60 points, up 1.40% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others saw gains exceeding 3%, with the Wind Double Innovation Index surging 4.95% [2][8] - The growth style dominated the market, reflecting a continued preference for growth sectors and a significant increase in risk appetite, as evidenced by the slight decline of the value-oriented CSI Dividend Index by 0.16% [2][8] Industry Performance - Most Wind primary industry indices rose last week, with the exception of the energy sector, which fell by 0.53%. The information technology sector surged by 5.71%, driven by a resurgence in AI hardware demand and a recovery in the optical module concept [2][11] Fund Issuance - A total of 36 funds were issued last week, including 18 equity funds, 9 mixed funds, 5 bond funds, and 4 FOFs, with a total issuance of 17.859 billion units [2][13] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.57% last week. The ordinary equity fund index increased by 3.33%, while the mixed equity fund index rose by 3.35%. The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.02% [2][7]

Group 1 - Vanke's stock and bond prices have significantly declined, with multiple bonds suspended due to sharp drops. "21 Vanke 02" closed down over 57%, "21 Vanke 06" down over 46%, and "22 Vanke 02" down over 42%. Vanke's H-shares fell nearly 8%, hitting a historical low, while Vanke A shares dropped over 7%, marking an 11-year low [2] - Six major state-owned banks collectively suspended five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit, with smaller banks following suit in adjusting long-term deposit products. This move is part of a broader effort by the National Development and Reform Commission to regulate market pricing and prevent unfair competition [2] - The scale of private equity funds reached a record high of 22.05 trillion yuan by the end of October, an increase of 1.31 trillion yuan from September, indicating a growing attractiveness and activity in the private equity sector [2] Group 2 - The first batch of leading smart factories in China has been announced, with 15 companies selected across key industries such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods. This marks a significant transition towards intelligent manufacturing, expected to enhance production efficiency and quality [3] - Publicly offered Hong Kong stock funds saw both scale and holdings increase in the third quarter, with total assets reaching 1,033 billion yuan, a 68% increase from the second quarter. The stock position of these funds rose to 92.71%, up 0.75 percentage points [3] - The number of newly established index-enhanced funds has surged over 400% year-on-year, with 160 new products launched this year, raising over 88.84 billion yuan. This growth is driven by policy support, improved index systems, and increasing investor demand [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a risk of economic slowdown, with most districts reporting stable economic activity, while some noted slight declines. The overall outlook remains unchanged, but concerns about a potential slowdown in the coming months are growing [5] - Hedge funds have shifted from short to long positions, with net purchases of U.S. stocks reaching a six-month high over two days. This marks a significant reversal in the de-leveraging trend observed in the market [5]

Group 1 - The National Financial Supervision Administration issued a notice to enhance financial support for clients affected by the fire in Hong Kong, urging banks to provide repayment delays and support for disaster recovery [2] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to combat virtual currency speculation, stating that virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies and should not circulate in the market [3] - A joint meeting by the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Science and Technology highlighted the importance of integrating financial support for technological innovation and optimizing policy measures to promote high-quality development [4] Group 2 - A survey by the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce revealed that the internationalization of private enterprises is expanding, with overseas income projected to reach 52,149.66 billion yuan in 2024, a nearly 12% increase [5] - The establishment of the Xiong'an Service Base by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange marks a new phase in capital market services for technological innovation and industrial upgrades in the Xiong'an New Area [6] - The release of the "Beijing Artificial Intelligence Industry White Paper (2025)" predicts that the AI industry in Beijing will exceed 450 billion yuan by 2025, driven by advancements in AI applications [7] Group 3 - The Shanghai Financial Technology Development White Paper (2025) indicates that the financial technology industry in Shanghai is expected to reach approximately 440.5 billion yuan in 2024, with increasing applications of digital currency and AI [9] - Micron Technology plans to invest 1.5 trillion yen (approximately 96 billion yuan) to establish a factory in Japan for AI storage chips, with government subsidies of up to 500 billion yen [10] - The London Metal Exchange reported that copper futures reached a historical high, driven by supply shortages and strong demand, with UBS predicting further price increases due to global copper supply disruptions [13]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on the financial industry, highlighting the shift from traditional methods to AI-driven decision-making processes [4][5][6] - It suggests that financial sales professionals must adapt to new roles as "navigators" who can leverage AI tools to extract critical insights from vast data streams [6][7] - The importance of sustainable value creation through deep professional insights and services is underscored, positioning these as foundational to clients' competitive advantages [7] Group 1: AI's Role in Finance - AI is no longer a laboratory concept but is actively reshaping high-frequency trading, smart investment advisory, and risk management [4][5] - The demand for financial professionals is shifting towards those who can define and apply AI in practical contexts, rather than merely consuming technology [8][9] Group 2: Professional Development and Value Creation - Financial professionals are encouraged to engage deeply with clients, particularly with key decision-makers, to ensure alignment with market trends [11][12] - The article outlines a pathway for career advancement, emphasizing the importance of systematic elite training and real-world experience in global financial centers [14] Group 3: Skills and Qualifications - Candidates with a background in finance, economics, or management are preferred, along with relevant sales experience and strong interpersonal skills [16] - The article highlights the necessity for professionals to possess keen insight into clients' strategic needs and challenges [16]