Group 1 - China's Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain rare earth items and technologies, adding 14 foreign entities to the unreliable entity list [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjusted the technical requirements for the purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles, increasing the pure electric range for plug-in hybrid vehicles from 43 km to at least 100 km [2] Group 2 - The domestic travel expenditure during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival reached 809 billion CNY, an increase of 1.08 billion CNY compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued measures to address disorderly competition in pricing, signaling a commitment to maintain fair market competition [3] - In the first eight months of this year, the value added of small and medium-sized industrial enterprises in China grew by 7.6%, outpacing large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [3] Group 3 - The first trading day after the holiday saw A-shares perform strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 1.32% at 3933.97 points, marking a ten-year high [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% to 26752.59 points, with significant fluctuations in the semiconductor and healthcare sectors [4] - In September, the stock ETF market attracted over 110 billion CNY in net inflows, with significant investments in ETFs tracking Hong Kong and A-share indices [4] Group 4 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is set to optimize the online issuance of ETFs to support high-quality index investment and reduce market operation costs [5] - Private equity firms are optimistic about the market outlook for the fourth quarter, although they caution about the need for a balance between defensive and offensive strategies [6] Group 5 - In September, the sales of China's top 100 real estate companies increased by 11.9% month-on-month, with a total sales amount of 252.78 billion CNY [8] - The overall performance of the real estate market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival was relatively flat, with core cities showing some growth in new housing transactions [8] Group 6 - TSMC reported a revenue of 330.98 billion TWD in September, a year-on-year increase of 31.4% [10] - Microsoft is facing a prolonged supply shortage for data centers, which is expected to last until mid-2026 [10] Group 7 - The U.S. stock market saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.52% and the S&P 500 down 0.28%, while tech stocks showed mixed performance [14] - European stock indices had varied performances, with the DAX index up 0.06% and the CAC40 down 0.23% [14] Group 8 - The bond market opened positively after the holiday, with major interest rate bonds seeing a decline in yields [16] - The scale of bond ETFs has significantly increased, reaching a total of 684.4 billion CNY by the end of September, a growth of 280% since the beginning of the year [16] Group 9 - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 1.65% to 61.52 USD per barrel, influenced by geopolitical developments in the Middle East [17] - Precious metals saw a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.95% [17] Group 10 - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1246 against the USD, a decrease of 60 basis points from the previous trading day [19] - The U.S. Treasury intervened in the Argentine foreign exchange market, establishing a currency swap framework of 20 billion USD [19]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 9, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 612 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 2,063.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,451.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a relatively loose funding condition on the first trading day after the holiday, with overnight repo rates for deposit-taking institutions dropping about 6 basis points to around 1.32% [3] - The overnight quotes for non-bank institutions borrowing against credit bonds also decreased but remained above 1.5%, not returning to the particularly loose liquidity levels seen previously [3] - The central bank's operation of over 1 trillion yuan in reverse repos alleviated the pressure from the large amount of reverse repos maturing [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.66%, down more than 1 basis point from the previous day [8] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.46%, the 10-year by 0.15%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [14] Group 5: Key News - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on specific rare earth items, requiring exporters to obtain licenses for exports to countries outside China, particularly for military users and certain semiconductor manufacturing applications [15] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced adjustments to the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions starting January 1, 2026 [15] - During the recent holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million person-times, an increase of 123 million compared to the previous year, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up 108.2 billion yuan [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustments to the technical requirements for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in relation to the exemption of vehicle purchase tax from 2026 to 2027, emphasizing the need for compliance with new standards to remain eligible for tax benefits [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Technical Requirements for Pure Electric Vehicles - The energy consumption limit for pure electric passenger vehicles should not exceed the specified values in the standard GB 36980.1—2025 [2]. - For passenger vehicles with a maximum design total mass exceeding 3500kg, the energy consumption limit will follow the same standards as those for vehicles weighing 3500kg [2]. Group 2: Technical Requirements for Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles - Plug-in hybrid vehicles must have an all-electric range of at least 100 kilometers under certain conditions [3]. - The fuel consumption in electric mode for vehicles weighing less than 2510kg must be less than 70% of the limits set in GB 19578—2024, while those weighing 2510kg or more must be less than 75% [3]. - For plug-in hybrid vehicles, the energy consumption in electric mode must be less than 140% for vehicles under 2510kg and less than 145% for those over 2510kg [4]. Group 3: Compliance and Directory Updates - From January 1, 2026, vehicles listed in the "Directory of Exempt Vehicles" must meet the new technical requirements to qualify for tax exemptions [5]. - Vehicles that were listed before December 31, 2025, and meet the new requirements will automatically transition to the updated directory, while those that do not comply will be removed [5]. - Manufacturers must submit applications for vehicles that do not meet the new requirements by December 12, 2025, to be considered for the updated directory [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points, reaching a new high in over 10 years [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3898.31 and reached a high of 3900.74, closing with a trading volume of 473.898 billion [3]. - The market saw 1,092 stocks rise, 1,152 decline, and 81 remain flat, indicating a mixed performance among listed companies [3]. Sector Performance - The precious metals sector led the gains in the A-share market, driven by gold prices surpassing $4,000 per ounce during the holiday [5]. - The top-performing sectors included precious metals (+6.98%), power generation equipment (+4.99%), and base metals (+4.18%) [6]. Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages maintain an optimistic outlook for the A-share market post-holiday. Zhongtai Securities noted a generally optimistic market sentiment before the holiday, suggesting a high probability of an upward trend after the holiday [8]. - Zheshang Securities anticipates a likely oscillating pattern for the Shanghai Composite Index, with two potential paths: a direct breakthrough of previous highs or initial consolidation before a breakout [8]. - Dongwu Securities highlighted a historical trend of more gains than losses in the market following the National Day holiday, emphasizing the importance of volume and price coordination in the post-holiday index performance [8]. Global Market Context - During the holiday, global stock indices rose, with COMEX gold prices increasing by 4.84%, reaching new historical highs, indicating a favorable environment for risk assets [10].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 30, with a fixed rate and a total of 242.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 276.1 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - On the last trading day of September, the interbank market liquidity remained stable, with overnight repo rates for deposit institutions rising over 7 basis points but still below 1.4%, which is considered a comfortable level for quarter-end [3] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.16% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.675% [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a decline in yields across the board [8] - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.1%, the 10-year contract up by 0.17%, the 5-year contract up by 0.11%, and the 2-year contract up by 0.04% [13] Group 5: Key News - The Shanghai Clearing House announced a full exemption of bond issuance registration fees from October 1, 2025, to September 30, 2026, and a 50% reduction in service fees for bond interest payment and redemption [14] - The interbank dealer association released a revised evaluation scheme for lead underwriters of non-financial corporate debt financing tools, emphasizing resource allocation to technology finance and inclusive finance [14] Group 6: Bond Defaults and Risks - Recent updates on bond defaults include the restructuring progress of Dongxu PPN001 and the slow debt restructuring of Sanbao Group [17] - A list of negative events in the bond market includes delayed ratings for several entities, indicating potential risks in the sector [17]

1、全球大类资产普涨 国庆假期期间，海外主要股指多数上涨，金价突破4000美元大关。 截至北京时间10月9日5时，Wind数据显示，股市方面，全球主要股指均上涨，其中日经225大涨6.24%领先。 大宗商品方面，避险推动下， COMEX黄金大涨4.84%，不断刷新历史新高。 （图片来自老庙黄金微信公众号） 2、美国政府 和美联储动向 （1）当地时间10月6日，美国国会参议院围绕新的临时拨款法案举行投票，民主党和共和党的提案均再度遭到否决，联邦政府"停摆"继续。 高盛预计，虽然关门可能持续几周，但不太可能延续到10月15日的军队发薪日之后，因为如果届时关门仍在继续，现役军人将错过整个薪水。当前两党争 论的一大焦点在于将于11月1日到期的医疗补贴法案。 （ 2）美联储会议纪要谨慎暗示今年将进一步降息:当地时间10月8日，美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策 会议上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿，但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。 会议纪要显示，美联储官员一致认为，鉴于近期疲弱的就业数据，有必要降息一次，但对于未来路径，官员产生分歧。然而，一些政策制定者指出，"从 若干指标来看，金融 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market welcomed the first trading day of the fourth quarter on October 9, with positive external factors from overseas markets and strong domestic consumption data during the recent holiday, indicating potential support for future A-share performance [2] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed a willingness among officials to consider further rate cuts this year, although concerns about inflation led to a cautious stance [2] - The recent holiday period showed strong consumer activity, with over 2.432 billion people traveling, marking a historical high and a 6.2% year-on-year increase [4] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.48%, with technology and consumer stocks underperforming, while gold and nuclear power stocks rose [5] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index reached a five-year high during the holiday, reflecting strong performance in Chinese concept stocks [6] - New fund issuance is expected to surge post-holiday, with around 70 new funds planned for October, primarily focusing on actively managed equity funds and index funds [6] Group 3 - The recent holiday saw a significant increase in tourism, with platforms reporting a rise in long-distance travel and experiential consumption [9] - The real estate market in Shenzhen showed a notable recovery, with new home transactions increasing by 23.48% year-on-year during the past month [10] - The white wine promotional battle during the holiday season led to price drops below wholesale levels for several major brands, indicating pressure on offline channels [11] Group 4 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a global economic growth rate of about 3% in the medium term, lower than pre-pandemic levels, with public debt expected to exceed 100% of GDP by 2029 [14] - The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is estimated at $1.8 trillion, reflecting ongoing fiscal challenges [15] - The European Central Bank is focusing on accelerating the application of artificial intelligence in various strategic sectors, including healthcare and manufacturing [16]

1、10月7日纽约期金历史首次站上4000美元/盎司大关，伦敦现货黄金价格也一度涨破3990美元/盎司。 美国财政赤字扩大、地缘冲突加剧、央行持续买 金，叠加美联储降息预期催化，推动了金价这一轮历史级的上涨。黄金牛市"吹号手"高盛持续唱多，将2026年12月黄金价格预测上调至每盎司4900美元 （此前预测为4300美元）。 2 、 瑞典皇家科学院决定将 2025 年诺贝尔物理学奖授予科学家约翰 · 克拉克、麦克 ·H· 德沃雷特、约翰 ·M· 马蒂尼，以表彰他们 " 发现电路中的宏观量子 力学隧道效应和能量量子化 " 。 获奖者将平分 1100 万瑞典克朗（约合 836 万元人民币）奖金。 1 、乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文表示，汽车经销商的销售毛利偏低，市场竞争压力偏大，二手车盈利尚未有效提升，生存状态有较大的改善空间。 期待相 关部门尽快行动起来，研究出台汽车经销领域阶段性金融纾困政策措施。 2 、 9 月底至 10 月初，武汉、重庆、合肥等多地接连出台楼市新政，从供需两端发力，针对性解决市场痛点，为房地产市场注入新活力。 2025 年前三季 度全国有约 200 个省市（县）出台政策超 470 条，三季度出台 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market faced downward pressure, with major indices ending a multi-day rally. Oracle's disappointing profit margins in its AI business led the decline, while investors remained cautious about the ongoing government shutdown [1][6][8] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.38% to 6,714.59, ending a seven-day upward trend. The Nasdaq composite index dropped 0.67% to 22,788.36, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.2% to 46,602.98 [1][2] Gold Market Dynamics - COMEX gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, closing at a record $4,007.90, driven by investor concerns over dollar credit, geopolitical issues, and asset safety [2][5] - Gold prices have surged approximately 50% this year, with a 10% decline in the dollar index making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus stimulating demand [5][6] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have diminished the appeal of short-term debt instruments, further enhancing gold's attractiveness as a zero-yield asset [5][6] Investment Sentiment - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggested that investors allocate about 15% of their portfolios to gold, emphasizing its role as a reliable asset during poor performance of typical investments [6] - The market is reflecting on the substantial investments in AI and questioning the expected returns, with concerns that current expectations may be overly optimistic [7] Political and Economic Risks - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its seventh day, poses increasing risks to the economy, delaying key economic data and affecting federal employees' salaries [8] - The political deadlock in Washington has created uncertainty, with the Senate failing to pass funding legislation, which could lead to greater pressure on Congress to reach an agreement [8] Future Projections for Gold - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing expected continued purchases by central banks and individual investors [16] - UBS projected gold prices could reach $3,900 per ounce by mid-2026, indicating further upside potential amid a backdrop of expected Fed policy easing and persistent inflation [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold surpassing $4000 per ounce and London spot gold reaching $3974 per ounce, indicating a "bullish frenzy" in the market [2][3] Group 2 - A significant factor influencing gold prices is the U.S. government shutdown, which has led to increased market uncertainty and a rise in demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This political deadlock has caused investors to increase their holdings in physical gold and gold ETFs to hedge against potential market volatility [5] - The U.S. dollar has faced pressure due to the government shutdown, which has weakened investor confidence in U.S. fiscal stability. Consequently, gold has performed well against major currencies, reinforcing its global safe-haven status [5] Group 3 - Another driving factor is the shift in Federal Reserve policy. The Fed's announcement of interest rate cuts marks the end of a two-year tightening cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October exceeding 80%. This change in interest rate expectations has a strong positive impact on gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [6] - The government shutdown has also disrupted the release of key economic data, leaving the Fed without crucial economic indicators, which may lead to a more cautious approach in monetary policy [6] Group 4 - Geopolitical factors are also supporting safe-haven demand for gold, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and currency fluctuations in parts of Asia. Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold to diversify their reserves away from U.S. dollar assets [7] - Silver has also seen a price increase, influenced by gold's performance, with analysts suggesting that silver may have further upside potential given its dual role as an industrial and store of value asset [7]