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Economic Data - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% [2] - Fixed asset investment in China rose by 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months of the year [2] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.6% year-on-year in May, and the digital product manufacturing sector saw a 9.1% increase [2] Real Estate Market - In May, housing prices in first and second-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with first-tier cities' second-hand housing prices dropping by 0.7% [2] - From January to May, the sales area and sales amount of newly built commercial housing fell by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively [2] - New construction starts have seen a continued low decline, while inventory of commercial housing has decreased for three consecutive months [2] Financial Market - The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a six-month term, marking the first time this tool was used twice in one month [3] - The net injection of reverse repos by the central bank for June is projected to be 200 billion yuan [3] Stock Market Trends - A-shares experienced an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.35% at 3388.73 points [6] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7%, with notable performances from oil and gas stocks and stablecoin-related stocks [6] - Since the second quarter, ETF funds have attracted over 300 billion yuan, reversing the net outflow trend from the first quarter [6] Corporate Announcements - CITIC Securities has been approved to issue up to 6 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [9] - Midea Group plans to repurchase shares worth between 5 billion and 10 billion yuan [9] - Lakala is planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to accelerate the application of digital currency in cross-border scenarios [9] Industry Insights - Goldman Sachs has identified ten major private companies in China, which it believes could enhance market concentration and change investor perceptions of Chinese assets [4] - The demand for electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China has continued to grow, with the cumulative number exceeding 14.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 45.1% [10]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 242 billion yuan at a fixed rate with an interest rate of 1.40% on June 16, resulting in a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 173.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [2][3] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank's net injection led to a decline in overnight pledged repo rates by over 2 basis points, currently around 1.39%, while the seven-day pledged repo rate increased by over 2 basis points [4] - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit transactions among major banks are around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [6] Group 3: Bond Market Performance - The closing prices of government bond futures mostly increased, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.05%, the 10-year main contract by 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract by 0.02%, while the 5-year main contract remained unchanged [11] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In May, China's industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.7%, while the retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 4.9% [12]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 202.5 billion yuan for a 7-day term at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 202.5 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 202.5 billion yuan. The net injection for the day was calculated to be 67.5 billion yuan after accounting for 135 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - As the tax period approaches, the overnight pledged repo rate for deposit-taking institutions has risen by nearly 4 basis points to around 1.41%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate has decreased by nearly 4 basis points. In the overseas market, the latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.28% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [6]. Group 4: Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds have mostly declined, with short-term bonds performing slightly better. The 1-year government bond yield is at 1.40%, down by 0.50 basis points, while the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.6425%, down by 0.35 basis points [8]. Group 5: Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.02%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.02%, the 5-year main contract up by 0.04%, and the 2-year main contract up by 0.03% [11]. Group 6: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - Preliminary statistics from the central bank indicate that the incremental social financing scale for the first five months of 2025 reached 18.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. The total RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan. As of the end of May, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [12].

Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as the main battleground for the current bull market, with a structural advantage in the Hang Seng Technology Index [5] - The A-share market is expected to experience a "steady first, then rise" trend in the second half of the year, driven by supportive fiscal policies [23] Geopolitical Tensions - The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, leading to increased risk aversion in financial markets, with a significant spike in international oil prices and gold [3] - The Middle East is crucial for global energy supply, and the ongoing conflict may disrupt logistics and increase prices for metals like zinc and copper, impacting industries such as automotive and electronics [3] Equity Markets - Cathay Securities believes that Hong Kong stocks have outperformed A-shares this year due to the scarcity of attractive assets in a weak macroeconomic environment [5] - Invesco continues to favor defensive positions in light of market uncertainties and potential volatility, with a neutral outlook on U.S. Treasuries [6] - Guohai Franklin Fund expresses optimism for the second half of the year, citing positive macroeconomic factors and a gradual recovery in the economy [8] Industry Research - Fuguo Fund highlights a strong trend of healthcare companies listing in Hong Kong, reshaping the pharmaceutical sector into a hub for biotech innovation and established pharmaceutical leaders [11] - Huashang Fund points out that the military industry is expected to showcase enhanced technological attributes and investment opportunities due to international tensions and upcoming product upgrades [13] - Xibu Lide Fund notes that resource stocks are gaining strength amid geopolitical conflicts, with a focus on gold and energy sectors [14] Macro and Fixed Income - Caitong Fund anticipates a continued oscillating pattern in the bond market due to insufficient demand and external trade uncertainties, with a stable policy environment expected [18] - Wanjia Fund indicates that declining deposit rates will enhance the appeal of dividend-paying assets, which are becoming increasingly attractive in a low-yield environment [19] - Zhongou Fund maintains a relatively optimistic outlook on the bond market, suggesting that the underlying logic for market performance remains unchanged [21] Asset Allocation - CICC's mid-year strategy report suggests that the A-share market will likely see a "steady first, then rise" pattern, with a focus on certainty in investment opportunities [23]

Market News - Chinese President will attend the second China-Central Asia Summit from June 16 to 18 in Kazakhstan, discussing bilateral cooperation and regional issues with Central Asian leaders [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics released the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities on June 16 [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, marking the second operation of the month [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced tariffs on various steel household appliances starting June 23, impacting related upstream commodity prices [6] Sector Events - The 2025 Shanghai World Mobile Communication Conference (MWC) will be held from June 18 to 20 [8] - The 2025 Data Intelligence Conference will take place in Beijing on June 18-19 [9] - The 9th International Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicle Conference and Exhibition will be held in Shanghai from June 18 to 20 [11] Individual Stock Events - Huawei will hold its Developer Conference on June 20, showcasing the latest developments of the Harmony OS [13] - CATL will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list starting from the next trading day after June 14 [13] - Several companies, including *ST Jingfeng and *ST Jinyi, will change their names after the removal of ST status on June 16 [13] - Nezha Automobile's affiliated company, Hezhong New Energy, is undergoing bankruptcy proceedings [13] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 45 companies will have their lock-up shares released this week, amounting to 2.908 billion shares with a total market value of 45.288 billion yuan [16] - The peak of lock-up expirations will occur on June 17, with 13 companies releasing shares worth a total of 23.657 billion yuan, accounting for 52.24% of the week's total [16] New Stock Calendar - Two new stocks and two new bonds will be available for subscription this week, with Guangxin Technology and Xintong Electronics being the highlighted companies [20][24] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities suggests increasing bond holdings and reducing stock positions, focusing on credit bonds as the main asset [26] - CICC forecasts that Hong Kong stocks will outperform A-shares, emphasizing structural opportunities in the market [27] - Galaxy Securities highlights the importance of low-valuation, high-dividend stocks amid external uncertainties [28]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a correction from June 9 to June 13, with the major indices showing varied performance. The Sci-Tech 50 index led the decline, falling by 1.89%, while the low-valuation blue-chip indices were relatively resilient, with the CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 down by 0.25%, 0.76%, and 0.46% respectively. Market sentiment was pressured by liquidity fluctuations [2] - The overall market saw a rotation among sectors, with funds favoring large-cap value stocks that have stable performance, while growth sectors faced valuation pressures. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.60%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.22% [2] Sector Performance - Approximately 64% of the Wind 100 Concept Index rose last week, with 42% of sectors achieving positive returns. Notably, the non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture sectors performed well, increasing by 3.79%, 3.50%, and 1.62% respectively. Conversely, sectors such as building materials, household appliances, and food and beverage saw significant declines, dropping by 2.77%, 3.26%, and 4.37% respectively [2] - The Wind primary industry index recorded an average increase of 1.11%, with leading sectors including energy (2.27%), healthcare (1.45%), and utilities (0.45%). In contrast, consumer staples (-3.14%), real estate (-1.61%), and industrials (-0.37%) underperformed [11] Fund Issuance - A total of 15 funds were issued last week, comprising 4 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, 4 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 8.934 billion units [2][14] Global Asset Review - Global asset prices showed a positive trend last week, with U.S. stock indices rising due to favorable economic data, strong corporate earnings, and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. European markets exhibited mixed results, while the Asia-Pacific region saw gains, particularly in South Korea due to economic recovery expectations [3] - In the commodities sector, energy prices rebounded sharply due to geopolitical events, while natural gas prices fell due to increased supply and seasonal demand changes. Precious metals like gold and silver saw price increases, whereas copper prices slightly declined [3] Domestic Bond Market - The domestic 10-year and 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.11% and 0.65% respectively, indicating a growing preference for medium to long-term assets. The overall long-term interest rates in China remained at historical lows [12]

Group 1 - Public mutual funds have distributed over 95 billion yuan in dividends this year, marking a 41.04% year-on-year increase, the highest in nearly three years [1] - The U.S.-China economic and trade consultations have made new progress, with both sides reaching a principled consensus on measures to address mutual economic concerns [1] - Over 60% of actively managed equity funds have recovered from previous losses, with a focus on technology sectors expected to yield excess returns [2] Group 2 - Gold has emerged as the best-performing asset this year due to ongoing regional conflicts and tariff policy disruptions, with prices surpassing 3,400 USD per ounce [3] - Hedge funds have been buying stocks at the fastest pace since November 2024, coinciding with a significant rise in the S&P 500 index in May [3] Group 3 - The fixed-income fund market is currently dominated by solid returns, with a strong preference for low-risk, stable-return assets among investors due to macroeconomic uncertainties [9] - The issuance of fixed-income products has been robust, with a significant share of new products being fixed-income plus and pure fixed-income funds [10] Group 4 - The performance of traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and treasury bonds has been subdued, while gold prices have surged [13] - Geopolitical risks and safe-haven sentiments are driving gold prices higher, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to 3,650 USD per ounce [14]

Group 1 - The Chinese government expresses strong opposition to Israel's military actions against Iran, emphasizing the need for dialogue and political solutions to international disputes [2][3] - The World Trade Organization meeting highlights China's criticism of the U.S. for its misleading narratives regarding service trade and calls for adherence to multilateral rules [3] - Boeing resumes aircraft deliveries to Chinese airlines, marking a significant step in U.S.-China trade relations after previous disruptions due to tariffs [4] Group 2 - New regulations for individual business registration in China will take effect on July 15, allowing for multiple operating locations and online business registrations [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduces management measures for technology incubators, aiming to enhance support for emerging industries [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission imposes penalties on stock market manipulation, highlighting ongoing efforts to maintain market integrity [6] Group 3 - China successfully launches the "Zhangheng-1" satellite, enhancing its capabilities in monitoring natural disasters [8] - The AG600 amphibious aircraft enters mass production, marking a milestone in China's emergency rescue equipment development [8] - Hunan Province outlines plans for developing smart factories, aiming to establish over 100 basic-level smart factories by 2027 [9] Group 4 - Trump Media and Technology Group announces the SEC's approval of its Bitcoin treasury deal registration, although no immediate financing plans are in place [10] - GAC Group commits to ensuring dealer rebates are fulfilled within two months, supporting the healthy development of the automotive industry [11] - Trump's financial disclosure report reveals significant income from real estate and a cryptocurrency platform, indicating ongoing financial interests [12]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to immediate impacts on capital markets, with a surge in global risk aversion and significant increases in oil and energy stocks [1][5][17]. Market Impact - Global stock markets experienced declines on June 13, with major indices falling, except for the Russian RTS index which saw a slight increase [1][3]. - In the Asia-Pacific region, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index had smaller declines compared to Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI [1]. - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down less than 0.5%, while France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX fell over 1% [1][3]. - In the Americas, the three major US indices saw significant drops, with the Dow Jones down 1.79% and both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 down over 1% [1][3]. Oil and Energy Sector Performance - International oil prices surged over 10% during the day, with NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent crude both exceeding $70 per barrel [5]. - Energy stocks in the US saw dramatic increases, with Houston energy stocks rising over 176% at one point, closing with a 119.19% increase [7]. - Major US energy companies also reported significant gains, with Halliburton up over 5%, Occidental Petroleum up over 3%, and ExxonMobil, Devon Energy, and ConocoPhillips all rising over 2% [7]. Oil Production and Export Projections - Current oil production in the Middle East shows Saudi Arabia leading with 9.07 million barrels per day, followed by Iran at 4.27 million barrels, while Israel and Turkey produce less than 200,000 barrels combined [9]. - Analysts estimate Iran's oil exports could reach 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day by 2025, potentially impacting around 4% of global oil exports [11]. - JPMorgan warns that a larger conflict in the Middle East could disrupt Iran's exports of 2.1 million barrels per day, leading to severe supply chaos in the oil market [11]. Historical Context and Price Trends - Historical data indicates that conflicts in the Middle East typically cause sharp short-term disruptions in oil supply, with long-term effects stabilizing over time [13][15]. - The oil price response to geopolitical tensions has historically shown a pattern of sharp increases followed by corrections, influenced by changes in supply and demand dynamics [15][17].