Overall Viewpoint - Wind power: The price of wind turbine units is stabilizing, and the trend towards larger units along with cost reductions in components will drive continuous improvement in profitability for the turbine segment through 2026. The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, as wind power has a favorable output curve, leading to a potential recovery in wind power development and power station sales. Short-term pressure is expected from June wind power bidding and Q2 performance, but the market is gradually digesting these issues, and expectations for improvement in related indicators are forming [2]. Component Segment - Attention is drawn to the trend of larger turbine units, particularly in the bearing segment, and investment opportunities in European offshore wind products. The current timing is crucial for performance realization [3]. Photovoltaics - This week, the price of polysilicon futures has rebounded due to news factors. After experiencing internal competition policies in Q4 2024 and a rush for installations in Q1 2025, the photovoltaic sector's debt repayment ability did not continue to deteriorate during Q1 2025. However, starting in May 2025, production and prices in the photovoltaic sector have declined, further worsening the sector's debt repayment and profitability. It is anticipated that supply or demand-side support policies will strengthen in the next phase, with a focus on BC cells, perovskite, silicon materials, and low-PB integrated companies [3]. Solid-State Batteries - The market for solid-state batteries has expanded to include copper foil, separators, and other segments, which are currently at low price levels and in distress, but may not have reversed yet. In the short term, there is a risk of a pullback in the solid-state battery sector. However, in the medium term, battery manufacturers are actively advancing semi-solid production lines and full solid-state experiments, leading to increased capital expenditure in the solid-state battery sector, supported by policies. Continuous attention is recommended for solid-state battery front and mid-process equipment, lithium sulfide, solid-state electrolyte membranes, and dry-process positive electrode technologies [3]. Energy Storage - There is a consensus in the market regarding the favorable outlook for large-scale energy storage in Europe and overseas commercial storage. However, there are differing views on the profitability improvement and demand rhythm for domestic large-scale storage following the 136 document. The good bidding data for large-scale storage in May-June is related to the "531" rush for installations and independent energy storage "land grabbing." The mid-term profitability improvement for large-scale storage relies on the construction of the electricity market and improved trading flexibility, while the peak-valley price difference remains cyclical. In the short term, large-scale storage still requires substantial subsidies, but the commercial model is expected to improve, necessitating continuous monitoring of large-scale storage bidding data changes in the second half of the year [4][5].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally this week, with the North Securities 50 index leading the major broad-based indices with a weekly increase of 6.84% [3] - Major indices saw comprehensive gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the CSI 300 by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 5.69% [4] Trading Sentiment - The market's strong rise was accompanied by a steady increase in trading volume, indicating improved liquidity [3] - The volume timing indicator for the North Securities 50 remains cautious, while other major indices have shifted to a bullish signal [3] Fund Flow - ETF funds showed signs of profit-taking, with an overall net outflow from equity ETFs, particularly in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and small-cap stocks [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 28.381 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 13.489 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect 14.892 billion HKD [10] Valuation Metrics - As of June 27, 2025, broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at "moderate" valuation percentiles, while the ChiNext Index is at a "safe" valuation percentile [5] - In terms of sector valuation, industries like electricity and public utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are classified as "safe" [6] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents increased week-on-week, indicating an improved short-term Alpha environment [7] - Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents decreased, suggesting a weakening short-term Alpha environment [7] Institutional Focus - The top five stocks attracting the most institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology (151 institutions), Weigao Medical (144), Jingbeifang (79), AVIC Chengfei (66), and Cangge Mining (64) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various sectors in the market, highlighting trends and potential investment opportunities, particularly in the context of recent geopolitical developments and market dynamics. Financial Market Overview - A-shares have shown strong growth, with the North China 50 index rising by 6.84% weekly, leading major broad-based indices. Market sentiment is positive, with trading volume steadily increasing, indicating a shift towards bullish signals for most indices, except for the North China 50 which remains cautious [3]. Oil and Gas Sector - Geopolitical risks have eased, with reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which may lead to a restart of consolidation among overseas oil and gas giants. As of June 27, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $66.34 and $65.07 per barrel, reflecting declines of 12.5% and 12.1% respectively from the previous week [4]. Agriculture Sector - In the pig farming sector, the industry capacity cycle has reached a bottom, but high inventory levels continue to impact market dynamics. Recent policy initiatives are accelerating the process of reducing inventory, which is expected to realign supply and demand. A long-term perspective suggests that after inventory reduction, the sector may enter a prolonged period of profitability [6]. Coal Mining Sector - There are signs of a turning point in coking coal inventories, with a reported decrease in both raw and refined coal stocks for the first time since May. As of the week of June 23-29, the inventory of raw coal was 683.5 million tons, down by 17.9 million tons, and refined coal was 463.1 million tons, down by 36.1 million tons. Additionally, the average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased by 7 yuan to 616 yuan per ton, indicating the start of a seasonal price rise [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on banks' liabilities following a recent interest rate cut, emphasizing the challenges banks face in attracting deposits and the implications for their profitability and support for the real economy [3][4][5]. Group 1: Liability Pressure Concept - The concept of liability pressure is defined by both the scale of the liability gap and the difficulty of filling that gap [3]. - There are two measures for assessing the liability gap: one relative to regulatory indicators, which is rigid, and another relative to the bank's own needs, which is more flexible [4]. Group 2: Deposit Demand and Competition - In a market with ample liquidity, banks face a fixed total scale of deposits, making it more challenging to attract deposits compared to obtaining liquidity from the central bank [4]. - Banks often raise deposit rates to attract more deposits, but this can lead to a competitive cycle where banks follow each other's rate increases, resulting in a temporary rise in deposit rates [4][5]. Group 3: Scale Obsession and Its Consequences - Some banks may feel the need to increase deposit rates due to slower deposit growth following the interest rate cut, concerns about their ranking, or a desire to improve their position [5]. - This scale obsession leads to a competitive environment that can lower banks' net interest margins and profit growth, ultimately affecting their ability to support the real economy sustainably [6]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Future Risks - The article notes that while regulatory measures have improved market competition, the tendency for banks to engage in competitive behaviors that undermine these regulations can resurface [6]. - Examples include banks circumventing interest rate caps through manual interest compensation or non-bank deposit channels, indicating a need for a cultural shift away from scale obsession within banks [6].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 焦煤矿山库存拐点已现，煤价开启季节性上涨 （1）5月以来，Mysteel统计的523家炼焦煤矿山原煤、精煤库存均持续上升，本周523家炼焦煤矿山原煤 库存683.5万吨，环比-17.9万吨，精煤库存463.1万吨，环比-36.1万吨，5月以来首次出现环比下降；（2） 本周（6.23-6.29）秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500大卡周度平均值）为616元/吨，环比+7元/吨，开启季节 性上涨；（3）截至6月27日，焦煤期货收盘价为847.5元/吨，周环比+6.6%。 （1）本周（6.23-6.29）秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500大卡周度平均值）为616元/吨，环比+7元/吨 （+1.15%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to a decline in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropping by 12.5% and 12.1% respectively, settling at $66.34 and $65.07 per barrel as of June 27, 2025 [3] Group 2 - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran does not address the ongoing nuclear negotiations, with Iran continuing to assess its nuclear program and asserting it will not abandon its nuclear ambitions, which poses significant geopolitical risks [4] - OPEC+ is expected to continue its large-scale production increase plan, with a proposed increase of 411,000 barrels per day, which is three times the original plan, although actual increases may be lower due to some members exceeding their quotas [5] Group 3 - Shell is reportedly in preliminary acquisition talks with BP, which could lead to the largest energy sector merger since the Exxon-Mobil deal in 1999, as BP is seen as a potential acquisition target due to its underperformance and strategic shift back to oil and gas [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential of stablecoins in the internationalization of the RMB, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like New Guodu, Lakala, and Newland due to the expected increase in cross-border payment scale [4] - Ant Group is highlighted for its competitive advantages in compliance, technology, and market penetration, with recommendations to focus on related companies such as Hengsheng Electronics and Langxin Group [4] Group 2 - Akole announced a restricted stock incentive plan aimed at motivating core team members, with expectations for its COC/COP products to achieve mass sales in 2025 [9] - The report notes a significant drop in exports to North America in May, while the engineering machinery sector remains robust, with excavators and tractors showing double-digit growth [14] Group 3 - E-commerce platforms saw a 15.2% increase in sales during the recent promotional period, with a notable rise in instant retail sales by 18.7% [20] - The land market in key cities shows a 24% increase in average transaction prices, indicating a recovery in high-capacity urban real estate [25] Group 4 - The medical imaging equipment company maintains a positive outlook with projected net profits of 19.66 billion, 22.81 billion, and 28.17 billion for 2025-2027 [30] - The gaming industry is experiencing high demand, with several key product launches expected during the summer, recommending companies like Tencent and NetEase [35] Group 5 - Shanxi Lu'an Chemical's major shareholder has initiated a share buyback plan, and the company is changing its name to reflect its technological transformation [41] - Kingdee International is adjusting its revenue forecasts slightly downward but maintains a "buy" rating due to enhanced product capabilities driven by AI [46]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with significant sector differentiation and a focus on internal demand and domestic policy catalysts [3][4][5][7][8]. Market Performance - A-shares closed higher this week, with major indices like the ChiNext and CSI 500 showing strong gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index lagged behind [3]. - The market exhibited an "N-shaped" trend in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.2% from the beginning of the year to June 27 [4]. - Sector performance varied significantly, with non-ferrous metals and banking sectors leading with gains of 18.0% and 13.5%, respectively, while coal and real estate sectors faced declines of 12.6% and 7.4% [5]. Fund Flows - The A-share market saw active trading in the first half of the year, with an average daily turnover exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [6]. - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 1.6 billion yuan, while the issuance of equity funds rebounded significantly, surpassing 250 billion units [6]. Future Outlook - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with external risks potentially easing but still requiring vigilance regarding U.S. policies [7]. - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Domestic consumption, driven by policy support for expanding domestic demand 2. Domestic substitution, focusing on performance certainty and thematic investments 3. Sectors currently underweight by funds, which may see long-term interest due to regulatory changes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gaming market continues to show strong growth, driven by new product launches and a shift from long-term product commercialization to new product contributions [3][4]. Domestic Market - In May 2025, the actual sales revenue of the Chinese gaming market reached 28.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.86% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.56%. This growth rate has slowed compared to previous months but remains robust [3]. - The mobile gaming market in May 2025 generated actual sales revenue of 21.177 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.96%. Key new releases have started to emerge, with several games achieving monthly revenues exceeding 10 million yuan [4]. - The client game market saw actual sales revenue of 5.819 billion yuan in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.58%. The growth was primarily driven by new and recently launched products [5]. - The upcoming summer season is expected to see a significant increase in new game launches, with over 30 titles planned, covering various genres [6]. Overseas Market - In May 2025, the actual sales revenue of China's self-developed games in overseas markets reached 1.577 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.50% [8]. - Strategy games (SLG) remain the core category driving overseas revenue, with product structures continuously optimizing. Notably, the game "Kingshot" saw its revenue double compared to the previous month [8]. - New genres, including female-oriented and synthesis games, are emerging in the overseas market, contributing to revenue growth and diversification [8].

Market Overview - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs in China showed an overall downward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 143.24 and a weekly return of -1.22% [2] - In comparison to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked from high to low are: convertible bonds, US stocks, A-shares, pure bonds, REITs, gold, and crude oil [2] - Among different project attributes, both property and concession REITs experienced price declines, with property REITs showing a smaller drop [2] - The transportation infrastructure REITs had the largest decline, while the top three performing asset types were affordable housing, energy, and ecological protection [2] Trading Activity - The total trading volume for publicly listed REITs was 2.9 billion yuan, with municipal facility REITs leading in average daily turnover rate [3] - The average daily turnover rate for all listed REITs was 0.93% [3] - The top three REITs by trading volume were Guotai Junan Dongjiu New Economy REIT, Zhongjin ProLogis REIT, and Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT [3] Net Inflow and Block Trading - The total net inflow for the week was 81.54 million yuan, indicating a decrease in market trading enthusiasm [4] - The top three asset types for net inflow were consumer infrastructure, park infrastructure, and energy infrastructure [4] - The total amount of block trading reached 789.97 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous week, with the highest single-day block trading occurring on June 24, 2025, at 309.6 million yuan [4] New Listings - Two new REITs were listed this week: Zhongjin Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT on June 26, 2025, and Zhongjin China Green Development Commercial Asset REIT on June 27, 2025 [5]