Core Viewpoint - The actual circulating supply of Bitcoin may be significantly lower than the capped limit of 21 million due to lost private keys, hardware failures, or unexpected deaths, with estimates suggesting that between 2.3 million to 7.8 million Bitcoins may be permanently out of circulation [1][8][11]. Group 1: Bitcoin Supply and Loss Estimates - The current circulating supply of Bitcoin is approximately 19.9 million, but the effective amount could be as low as 12.1 million to 17.6 million [2]. - Estimates from various sources indicate that between 2.3 million to 7.8 million Bitcoins are permanently lost, with a report from Ledger suggesting a loss of 2.3 million to 3.7 million, accounting for 11%-18% of the total supply [9][10]. - A study by Glassnode and ARK Invest estimates that around 7.8 million Bitcoins are in a "hoarded or lost" state, representing about 39% of the total supply as of September 2025 [10][11]. Group 2: The Nature of Bitcoin Ownership - Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin cannot be "reissued" if lost; the phrase "Not your keys, not your coins" emphasizes the importance of private keys in Bitcoin ownership [5]. - Once a private key is lost, the corresponding Bitcoin becomes an inaccessible "ghost asset," with notable cases of individuals losing significant amounts due to forgotten passwords or accidental deletions [6][7]. Group 3: Market Implications of Bitcoin Scarcity - The combined holdings of Bitcoin ETFs and major corporations amount to approximately 2.2 million Bitcoins, which is less than the estimated number of permanently lost Bitcoins [13][14]. - The real market value of Bitcoin may be overestimated by about $500 billion, as the actual circulating supply could be as low as 8.9 million Bitcoins, representing only 45% of the mined total [15]. - This "silent deflation" caused by loss, forgetfulness, and death is reducing the actual supply of Bitcoin, which is not adequately reflected in mainstream financial media [15].

据知名科技记者马克·古尔曼（Mark Gurman）的最新报道，苹果的AI套件"Apple Intelligence"将无缘随iPhone 17在中国市场首发。尽管苹果仍在积极推进其 在华落地， 但目前预计的上线时间最早也要到今年年底，这意味着新机发售初期将缺少一个关键的核心卖点。 由于本地化AI功能的延迟以及可能采用的eSIM设计，iPhone 17系列新品在中国市场的发布和销售前景正蒙上阴影。 与此同时，预计将在9月10日发布会上成为亮点的全新轻薄机型"iPhone 17 Air"， 可能因其仅支持eSIM卡的设计而在中国市场遭遇准入难题。 古尔曼称，这一 硬件规格可能导致该机型在中国的发布"受到限制或推迟"，直到苹果与运营商找到解决方案。 除了软件功能的延迟，硬件层面的挑战也同样严峻。本次发布会的一大焦点预计是全新的"iPhone 17 Air"，这是一款拥有6.6英寸大屏的轻薄化设计机型。 然而，一个核心问题是， iPhone 17 Air预计将完全取消实体SIM卡槽，全面转向eSIM。 古尔曼在其专栏中明确指出，仅支持eSIM"将使其在中国大陆的销售 变得困难"，不排除"受到限制或推迟"的可能。 对 ...

Core Viewpoint - Midea Group's subsidiary, Ande Intelligent Supply Chain Technology Co., Ltd. (Ande Intelligent), is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in Midea's expansion strategy and potentially enhancing its valuation in the logistics sector [3][9]. Company Overview - Ande Intelligent is recognized as the leading provider of integrated supply chain logistics solutions in China, particularly in the home appliance sector, with projected revenues of 18.663 billion yuan in 2024 [3][8]. - The company offers comprehensive production logistics solutions across nine core application scenarios, acting as a "supply chain steward" for enterprises [5][8]. Financial Performance - Ande Intelligent has demonstrated robust financial growth, with revenues increasing from 14.173 billion yuan in 2022 to 18.663 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.8%. Net profit surged from 215 million yuan to 380 million yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of 33% [8][9]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 10.885 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.23%, and net profit of 248 million yuan, up 21.75% [8]. Strategic Moves - Midea Group's decision to list Ande Intelligent on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange instead of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is aimed at unlocking the company's valuation potential and aligning it with comparable logistics firms like JD Logistics and Cainiao Network [9]. - The restructuring is intended to streamline business management and enhance the competitive edge of Ande Intelligent, allowing it to better leverage its logistics technology attributes [9]. Historical Context - The origins of Ande Intelligent trace back to Midea Group's logistics operations initiated in 2000, evolving from an internal logistics department to a standalone entity with significant market presence [9][10]. - Midea Group has a history of strategic transformations and expansions, having grown from a small workshop to a global technology group with revenues exceeding 400 billion yuan in 2024 [10][14]. Family and Leadership - The founder of Midea Group, He Xiangjian, is a prominent figure in the Chinese business landscape, with a family wealth ranking fifth in the 2024 Hurun Rich List, highlighting the family's influence and success in the industry [10][11]. - The upcoming IPO of Ande Intelligent could mark the tenth public offering associated with the He family, further solidifying their legacy in the capital markets [21].

全球黄金行业的代表机构——世界黄金协会上周正式提出一项颠覆性提案， 计划在伦敦推出由实物黄金支持的数字代币 ，旨在彻底改变黄金的交易、结算 和抵押方式。 此举或将为这个 规模高达9300亿美元的全球最大实物黄金交易中心 注入新的活力，但也引发了市场关于传统与创新激烈碰撞的讨论。 古老的黄金，正迎来一场深刻的数字化变革。 解锁"沉睡"资产，瞄准万亿抵押品市场 长期以来，黄金在银行和投资者的资产负债表上，主要扮演着一种静态、无收益的价值储存角色。 据世界黄金协会首席执行官David Tait向英国《金融时报》表示， 黄金必须实现数字化，才能扩大其市场覆盖面。 此次推出的核心是名为"集合黄金权益"（Pooled Gold Interest, PGI）的数字代币。根据世界黄金协会全球市场结构与创新负责人Mike Oswin向CNBC的 介绍， 每一枚PGI代币都将代表对伦敦金库中特定实物黄金的合法所有权，并且首次允许投资者交易标准400盎司金条的分割所有权。 "我们希望将黄金定位为与那些数字化原生债券或现金并驾齐驱的金融资产，"Oswin在接受采访时明确指出，"（通过PGI）质押黄金将变得和质押债券一 样简单。" 此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is a strategic move to prevent further division within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) ahead of a crucial vote on whether to hold a temporary presidential election [2][12][16]. Group 1: Political Context - Ishiba's resignation comes as the LDP faces unprecedented political challenges, having lost majority seats in both houses of the Diet during his tenure [4][5]. - The new party leader will need to secure nominations from 20 party members to run in the upcoming presidential election, with the last election featuring nine candidates [4][18]. - The process of electing a new prime minister is complicated by the LDP's loss of majority, requiring votes from both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors [5][21]. Group 2: Market Implications - The transition to a new prime minister introduces uncertainty in the financial markets, as the new leader may implement more aggressive economic stimulus measures, potentially increasing fiscal pressure [3][7]. - The possibility of the new prime minister dissolving the Diet for early elections could further complicate Japan's political and economic outlook [6][27]. Group 3: Internal Party Dynamics - Ishiba's decision to step down was influenced by growing dissent within the party, with key figures urging him to resign to maintain party unity [12][13]. - Polls indicated that a significant majority of LDP members supported an early presidential election, reflecting the internal pressures Ishiba faced [13][14]. - Ishiba's resignation is seen as a tactical retreat to preserve his political image and minimize blame for the party's turmoil [16].

Core Viewpoint - The global institutional investors' market sentiment is showing a clear split, with a strong consensus emerging on the bullish stance towards gold, regardless of differing views on AI-driven tech stocks and economic growth concerns [1][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - A survey of 804 institutional investors indicates a division between bullish and bearish camps, with the bullish camp optimistic about the performance of U.S. stocks, particularly the "Magnificent 7" tech giants, believing the AI narrative is far from over [1][2]. - Over half of the respondents plan to maintain or increase their long positions in the "Magnificent 7," although there is a slight decline in new capital inflows into this trade, suggesting a change in sentiment [2]. - The bearish camp is primarily concerned about the potential for a more significant economic slowdown in the U.S. than expected and the concentration risk posed by large tech stocks dominating the market [3]. Group 2: Gold Investment - Gold has emerged as the most uncontroversial investment choice, with a ratio of nearly 8 to 1 in favor of bullish investors compared to bearish ones, marking a record high in the Goldman Sachs survey [5]. - Both bulls anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut and bears seeking safe-haven assets view gold as an ideal investment, supported by demand from central banks and potential private investors [5]. Group 3: China Market Interest - Investor interest in the Chinese market is on the rise, with 62% of respondents planning to maintain or increase their positions in Chinese stocks, reflecting a strong rebound in the market during the summer [6][7]. - When asked which market would perform better between U.S. stocks (S&P 500) and Chinese stocks (MSCI China), opinions were nearly evenly split, indicating a growing focus on the Chinese market [7]. Group 4: Dollar Sentiment - The sentiment towards the U.S. dollar has shifted, with a consensus emerging to short the dollar after a brief rebound last month, although there is no clear agreement among investors on the key factors driving the dollar's performance for the remainder of the year [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights key economic events and data releases for the week of September 8-14, focusing on China’s CPI, import/export data, and the U.S. CPI and PPI data, as well as significant corporate earnings reports from Oracle and Adobe [2][4][22]. Economic Data - China’s August import and export data will be released, with previous figures showing a 4.1% increase in imports and a 7.2% increase in exports in July [13]. - The U.S. will release its August CPI report on September 11, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with expectations of a cooling job market impacting inflation [4][8]. - China’s August CPI is expected to drop to -0.4% due to high base effects and weak food prices, while PPI is also anticipated to show weakness [9][11]. Corporate Earnings - Oracle is set to release its earnings report on September 10, with strong future guidance expected, particularly in cloud infrastructure revenue, projected to grow over 70% by FY2026 [22]. - Adobe will also report earnings during this week, although specific details were not provided [2]. Political Events - In Japan, the deadline for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to submit applications for an early leadership election is September 8, which could impact the yen depending on the outcome [20]. - France is facing a critical trust vote regarding its budget, which could lead to political instability and economic repercussions if the government fails to secure support [21]. Central Bank Decisions - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its deposit rate at 2% during its upcoming meeting, reflecting a cautious approach amid ongoing trade disputes [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential repetition of the "Nixon era" in the context of current political pressures on the Federal Reserve, suggesting that these pressures may lead to significant changes in monetary policy, including the adoption of yield curve control (YCC) [2][8]. Group 1: Political Pressure and Historical Parallels - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has publicly urged the Federal Reserve to return to "moderate long-term interest rates," highlighting the need for the Fed to focus on its statutory duties of maximum employment, price stability, and moderate long-term rates [2][5]. - The current economic challenges faced by the U.S. are compounded by the potential loss of the Federal Reserve's independence, which relies on public trust [6]. - The political motivations reminiscent of the Nixon administration's pressure on the Fed to implement expansive monetary policies are seen as a driving force behind potential changes in current monetary policy [8][10]. Group 2: Yield Curve Control (YCC) as a Policy Tool - Hartnett predicts that the rising global long-term bond yields will compel policymakers to intervene, potentially leading to the implementation of YCC as a means to control government financing costs [10][11]. - The article notes that 54% of respondents in a recent global fund manager survey expect the Federal Reserve to adopt YCC [11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett outlines a clear investment strategy based on the anticipated adoption of YCC: going long on bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies while shorting the U.S. dollar [12][15]. - The strategy emphasizes that YCC will artificially lower bond yields, creating significant upside potential for bond prices as economic data shows signs of weakness [13]. - The anticipated monetary policy shift is expected to erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies, making gold and cryptocurrencies attractive as stores of value [14][15]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Risks - The article warns that, similar to the Nixon era, the current period of monetary easing could lead to uncontrollable inflation and market crashes in the future, as evidenced by historical patterns [16].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new AITO M7 is set to reshape the 300,000 RMB SUV market, building on the success of the AITO M9 and M8, and challenging traditional luxury brands with its advanced features and competitive pricing [1][2][6]. Group 1: Product Features and Market Impact - The new AITO M7 has undergone significant upgrades, including a larger body size, enhanced safety features, and advanced driver assistance systems, positioning it as a leader in the 300,000 RMB segment [8][10][11]. - The vehicle's pre-order success, with over 100,000 units sold within the first hour, indicates strong market demand and consumer interest, surpassing the sales of competitors like Tesla Model Y [3][5][6]. - The M7's pricing strategy, with a pre-sale range of 288,000 to 348,000 RMB, reflects a deliberate choice to maintain value rather than engage in price wars, setting a new standard in the market [6][19][20]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Strategic Positioning - The AITO M7 is expected to accelerate the transformation of the 300,000 RMB market, challenging the status quo of price competition and pushing for a value-driven approach among competitors [2][22]. - The vehicle's success is attributed to its alignment with consumer needs and preferences, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, which is crucial for long-term brand sustainability [21][24]. - The M7's introduction is seen as a pivotal moment for domestic brands, providing a blueprint for overcoming price wars and focusing on value creation, which could lead to a significant shift in the competitive landscape [22][25][26]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of Huawei's iDVP digital platform allows for over-the-air updates and continuous performance improvements, enhancing the vehicle's long-term value and user experience [15][16]. - The innovative use of in-cabin laser radar technology for driver assistance systems represents a significant advancement in automotive safety and functionality, setting the M7 apart from traditional competitors [13][15]. - The focus on health and safety within the vehicle's design, including the use of high-strength materials and improved air quality systems, addresses growing consumer concerns and enhances the overall appeal of the M7 [16][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The success of the AITO M7 is expected to contribute to the broader growth of the domestic high-end automotive market, with projections indicating a potential doubling of market share among high-net-worth consumers by 2030 [24][26]. - The strategic positioning of the M7 within the AITO brand ecosystem is aimed at achieving significant sales milestones, reinforcing the brand's influence in the competitive landscape [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth has significantly slowed down since the beginning of the year, as indicated by the August non-farm employment report, which shows a clear decline in new job additions [1][5]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 38,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [5]. - The job growth data for June was revised downwards, showing a decrease of 13,000 jobs, while July's data was revised upwards from 73,000 to 79,000 jobs [5]. - Over the past three months, the private sector averaged 29,000 new jobs per month, marking the lowest increase since the pandemic began [6]. - The average number of new jobs in the private sector over the past six months has slowed to 67,000 [6]. - The number of permanent job losses slightly increased in August, but the rate has remained stable this year, at just above 1.1% of the labor force [9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the upcoming meeting, complicating discussions about future rate cuts [2]. - Fed Chair Powell indicated that if labor market data shows a slowdown, the Fed will proceed with planned rate cuts, reflecting a shift in the balance of risks [2][4]. - The comprehensive weekly wage index rose by 4.4% year-on-year in August, marking a new low for this cycle, with a three-month annualized growth rate declining from 3.2% to 2.4% [11]. - The unemployment rate, calculated without rounding, increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324% in August, with Fed officials previously predicting it would rise to 4.5% in the fourth quarter [14].