o 01 .. : . . . . . . . . 1 o ; : : 4 7 NEW YEAR NEW FORTUNE ...

2025年是新消费的元年，也是连锁茶饮出现分化的一年。现制茶饮行业一直被诟病头部玩家众多，竞争格局相对不清晰。2024年，在宏观经济背景偏弱 +茶饮行业竞争愈发激烈的情况下，各个头部茶饮品牌经营情况均有承压，去年Q2开始各个茶饮品牌均通过加大折扣力度、推出超低价引流单品等方式 开启价格战。同时，茶百道、沪上阿姨表现出拓店进度不及预期、同店经营下滑等增长乏力表现。 | 品牌名称 | | 23年底门店规模 24年底门店规模 | 净增数量 | 增速 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 书亦烧仙草 | 7617 | 5727 | -1890 | -24.8% | | 甜啦啦 | 6748 | 6233 | -515 | -7.6% | | Coco都可 | 4439 | 3861 | -578 | -13% | | 茉酸奶 | 1589 | 1087 | -502 | -31.6% | | 7分甜 | 1201 | 864 | -337 | -28.1% | 经过24Q2、Q3较为激烈的低价竞争策略, 茶饮市场整体竞争格局相较之前更为清晰, 各个茶饮品牌经营情况出现分化，头部品牌蜜 ...

"希望重现11年前微信红包时刻" 2025年春节DeepSeek横空出世，腾讯一夜之间从"躺平生"化身为"卷王"，2025年春节后，腾讯云、腾讯智能工作台ima、腾讯AI助手 "腾讯元宝" 都迅速 接入了DeepSeek大模型。 通过搭上 DeepSeek 这辆快车，腾讯一跃成为国内头部AI头部之一，元宝也是3月份增长最快的明星AI产品。 但问题在于，2025年的AI进展，快得远超任何一家大厂的内部节奏。 Manus的出圈，让市场第一次直观感受到多步骤、可执行 Agent 的潜力；NanoBanana代表的多模态模型，在图像、视频与生成一致性上不断突破；阿里 则通过千问，发起了一场极具侵略性的C端扩张战，试图用全生态覆盖来重建入口优势。 到了2026年春节，OpenClaw的出圈，让"个人 AI Agent"第一次不再停留在概念层面； SeedDance导演级的视频制作水平，让人们将"SD"与"DS"做对 比。 摆在元宝面前的问题变得非常清晰，需要一个新的抓手，一个足以撬动更大用户面的突破口。这便是腾讯在这个春节节点，重新提起"红包"这件事的背 景。 0 1 1月26日， 在年会现场，腾讯董事会主席兼CEO马 ...

2025年，英伟达CEO黄仁勋将首批DGX Spark交到埃隆·马斯克手中。 彼时，这台"全球最小AI超级计算机"的使命清晰无比——尽可能便捷性地赋能下一代AI开发。但颇具戏剧性的是，让它火出圈的，却是一个看似毫不相 干的问题：它在《赛博朋克2077》能跑多少帧？ 一边是高达1 PetaFLOP的AI算力，能本地运行2000亿参数的大模型；另一边，社区里流传着它运行3A大作时帧率挣扎的趣事。DGX Spark究竟是一台 高性价比AI开发工作站，还是一个被误读的游戏主机？这背后，又是AI硬件产业怎样的未来趋势与商业模式？ 方寸之间的超级 算力 DGX Spark的核心，是一颗NVIDIA GB10 Grace Blackwell超级芯片。它的设计逻辑简单而激进：彻底抛弃传统的CPU+GPU通过PCIe总线握手的模 式。 因此，其决心通过NVLink-C2C芯片级互连技术，将基于Arm的Grace CPU与Blackwell架构GPU直接进行融合，实现了900GB/s的互联带宽，同时这也 是当下主流PCIe 5.0的5倍以上。这种革命性连接带来的最直接好处，就是128GB的LPDDR5x统一大内存——CPU和GP ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising popularity of Ninebot electric scooters among young consumers, emphasizing their unique approach to building brand loyalty through user experience and sustainable business practices [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Ninebot's sales have seen a significant increase, particularly in Guangdong, where there was over a 30% year-on-year growth despite an overall industry decline [1]. - The overall sales share of smart electric motorcycles has risen to over 80% in cities without motorcycle restrictions [1]. Group 2: User Experience - Users prefer Ninebot due to its performance and experience, which includes smart interactions, safety designs, standardized service in stores, and nationwide after-sales support [4][5]. - The consistent service quality across different regions contributes to a strong brand loyalty, transforming initial trials into long-term commitment [7][8]. Group 3: Store Expansion Strategy - Since 2021, Ninebot has adopted a strategy focused on achieving a 20% market share as a benchmark for store openings, avoiding blind expansion [10][12]. - The company ensures that if the local market share exceeds 20%, no new stores will be opened unless existing ones fail to meet service standards, thus maintaining a balance between availability and quality [12][13]. Group 4: Data-Driven Decision Making - Ninebot's store layout is based on data regarding user density, purchasing power, and service radius, allowing for tailored strategies in different city tiers [17][18]. - The company encourages existing dealers to expand their operations, rewarding those who increase their store size significantly with additional brand resources and support [18][19]. Group 5: Sustainable Business Model - Ninebot's approach focuses on building a healthy and sustainable local service ecosystem, prioritizing user value and partner success over short-term gains [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in the CXO sector is not indicative of a comprehensive recovery but rather a reaction to easily confirmable short-term improvements, particularly among domestic demand-driven CRO and experimental service companies, while leading CDMO companies focused on external demand have underperformed [3][4][5]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently trading based on short-term rebounds rather than a long-term recovery in the CXO industry, with a notable divergence in performance between domestic-focused companies and those reliant on global demand [4][5]. - Despite an overall positive sentiment in the industry, caution remains regarding CDMO companies, which are facing complex pricing environments and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact long-term growth [5][12]. Financial Performance - WuXi AppTec's 2025 performance forecast indicates a revenue of approximately 454.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84%, and a net profit of around 191.51 billion RMB, reflecting a significant growth of 102.65% [7]. - The company's revenue growth trajectory has shown consistent improvement throughout the year, with a core business revenue increase of approximately 21.40%, indicating enhanced growth momentum post-divestiture of certain business segments [9][10]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The market's cautious stance towards CDMO companies is driven by uncertainties regarding future growth, particularly in relation to geopolitical risks and the sustainability of demand for emerging business lines like TIDES [12][13]. - The valuation of CDMO companies reflects a conservative outlook on long-term growth potential rather than immediate revenue uncertainties, leading to a disconnect between fundamental recovery and stock price performance [10][28]. Structural Changes in the Industry - The growth in WuXi AppTec's small molecule D&M business is attributed to an expansion in order structure and capabilities, moving beyond traditional roles to encompass more complex production processes [20][22]. - The acquisition of Dongyao Pharmaceutical by WuXi AppTec highlights a strategic move to secure capacity in a high-demand sector, emphasizing the importance of time as a critical resource in the competitive landscape [24][26]. Conclusion - The current rebound in the CXO sector appears to be driven by emotional and anticipatory factors rather than a full reassessment of long-term industry value, with a clear distinction between domestic and external demand dynamics [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The State Grid has announced a fixed asset investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a total investment expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous period. This indicates a clear high-growth trend in China's power grid investments, leading to unprecedented market expectations for the "power grid cycle" [2]. Investment Dimensions - The power system can be divided into generation, transmission, transformation, distribution, and consumption. The investment in power grid projects can be categorized into three dimensions: trunk network/super high voltage, smart grid/digitalization, and distribution and consumption equipment [10]. - Trunk network/super high voltage investments focus on primary equipment for physical transmission channels, characterized by large single amounts and long construction cycles, typically requiring 2-2.5 years from approval to operation [10]. - Smart grid/digitalization investments pertain to secondary equipment, which includes control systems and automation, with shorter delivery cycles of 0.5-1 year and more stable revenue driven by both new line construction and upgrades of existing networks [11]. - Distribution and consumption side investments target distributed energy access and end-users, characterized by fragmented orders and fast turnover, with profits recognized in line with annual grid construction progress [11]. Company Analysis - Group A companies, such as Pinggao Electric and China XD Electric, exhibit strong cyclical performance linked to super high voltage construction, with profits closely tied to specific project completion timelines [13]. - Group B, represented by State Grid NARI, shows strong certainty and anti-cyclicality in its performance, driven by the increasing complexity of the power grid and technological premiums rather than direct dependence on grid investment fluctuations [15]. - Group C focuses on the end of the power grid, emphasizing access and consumption, with companies like Samsung Medical experiencing accelerated profit growth due to the shift from urbanization-driven to consumption-driven investments, particularly in response to the rapid growth of distributed solar energy [17]. New Power System Cycle - The current "14th Five-Year Plan" power grid cycle differs from previous ones, with its driving factors shifting from "scale expansion" to "reconstruction of the power grid under a new power system." The main challenge has evolved to system stability and capacity for renewable energy integration [20]. - It is anticipated that a significant portion of the 4 trillion yuan investment will be allocated to addressing the randomness and volatility of renewable energy sources. Key factors influencing the industry include cost fluctuations of raw materials, technological upgrades, investment policies, and supply-demand dynamics [20].

Core Viewpoint - OpenClaw has emerged as a significant player in the AI space, capable of automating up to 90% of human workflows, highlighting a shift from traditional AI assistants to more autonomous digital colleagues [10][12][13]. Group 1: OpenClaw Overview - OpenClaw, previously known as ClawdBot and MoltBot, has gained popularity in the AI community, leading to increased demand for compatible hardware like Mac Mini [3]. - Major cloud providers such as Tencent Cloud and Alibaba Cloud are offering quick deployment options for OpenClaw, indicating a growing market for AI solutions [5]. - OpenClaw is designed to perform various tasks such as managing emails, scheduling, and handling check-ins for flights, all through popular messaging applications [10]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Prior to OpenClaw, Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, which focuses on executing tasks rather than just answering questions, marking a transition to a more interactive AI experience [7]. - Another competitor, Jumpshare, introduced a desktop AI agent that operates across applications, emphasizing the need for desktop-level intelligence rather than a single software assistant [8]. Group 3: Technical Capabilities - OpenClaw's success is attributed to its ability to integrate various skills, allowing it to perform complex tasks autonomously without human intervention [10]. - The AI can execute scripts and automate workflows, achieving a high level of autonomy that enables it to complete tasks without continuous human oversight [12][19]. - The combination of coding capabilities and skills allows OpenClaw to automate 90% of workflows, showcasing its potential to revolutionize productivity [12][13]. Group 4: User Adoption and Market Demand - Users are increasingly willing to accept the risks associated with OpenClaw, driven by frustration with traditional chat-based AI that lacks execution capabilities [21]. - The demand for agents that can perform continuous tasks and take responsibility for outcomes is evident, as users seek more than just conversational AI [22]. - The rapid evolution of AI coding capabilities has led to significant advancements in agent technology, with companies like Kimi also making strides in this area [22]. Group 5: Challenges and Ecosystem Limitations - The development of agents is hindered by restrictions imposed by major platforms, which often limit the ability to automate tasks across different applications [23]. - OpenClaw's model circumvents these limitations by operating directly on user machines, allowing for greater autonomy but also raising security concerns [24]. - The competitive landscape suggests that while smaller companies drive innovation, larger firms will likely dominate the market for consumer-facing agent products [24].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC expresses strong confidence in the long-term demand for AI, emphasizing that current capacity constraints are internal rather than external, and is determined to face competition head-on [2][3]. Group 1: Investment and Growth Plans - TSMC plans a capital expenditure of $56 billion for 2026, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced processes and 10%-20% to advanced packaging, significantly exceeding the $100 billion spent over the past three years [4]. - The company expects its revenue to reach $122 billion in 2025, a 36% year-on-year increase, driven by high demand for advanced process technologies [4]. - Advanced process technologies contributed 77% of total wafer revenue, with 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm processes accounting for 28%, 35%, and 14% respectively in Q4 [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Pressures - TSMC's gross margin for 2026 is projected to be influenced by high capacity utilization and improved manufacturing efficiency, but may face a 2%-3% dilution from overseas expansions [7][10]. - The introduction of 2nm technology is expected to begin mass production in late 2026, which may dilute gross margins by approximately 1% [8]. - TSMC's advanced process roadmap includes the rollout of 2nm and enhanced N2P technologies, which are crucial for maintaining its market position [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - TSMC remains confident in its ability to maintain its market position despite competition from Intel, which is also advancing its 2nm technology [14][15]. - The upcoming three years (2026-2028) will be critical for both TSMC and Intel as they compete in the advanced process technology space [17]. - TSMC's long-standing focus on foundry services and deep customer relationships provide a significant competitive advantage over Intel, which is still establishing its external foundry capabilities [16][23]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - TSMC's global expansion strategy, including facilities in the US, Japan, and Germany, aims to mitigate geopolitical risks while addressing local production demands [10][26]. - The semiconductor industry is becoming a focal point of national strategy, with both TSMC and Intel navigating the complexities of local production and supply chain security [26][27]. - The global wafer market is expected to grow significantly from 2023 to 2026, driven by structural demand, marking a super cycle rather than a typical recovery [27].

0 1 如何看待老铺的排队效应？ 2026年春节预售期间（26年1月24日启），老铺黄金销售表现强劲，远超市场预期，SKP再度掀起消费者抢购热潮。 1月24日北京SKP启动春节主题活动后，市场反应热烈。尽管北京夜间气温降至零下十度，已有顾客提前在商场外等候。1月25日北京SKP活动正式开始 时，商场开门仅半小时就因人流过多而暂停排队，社交媒体反馈显示，部分消费者排队时长高达7至8小时。从市场观察来看，老铺黄金单店吸引了SKP 当日约半数客流，消费者购买意愿并没有受到近期国际金价持续上行的明显影响。 在国际金价持续上涨、北京SKP排队热潮等利好消息下，老铺黄金股价实现跳涨，由620/股涨至845.5/股，涨幅达到36%。如何解读此次涨幅，其实是在 回答老铺黄金春节销售会超预期吗？以及更根本的问题是春节销售超预期意味着敲定高端黄金珠宝赛道在26年的可持续性吗？ | = 11 日 | | 歯 2026年1月 हा | 五 | l | 11 | 益 2026年2月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | l 三 四 五 六 日 29 30 31 1 1 1 2 ...