Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slow progress of RMB internationalization compared to China's growing global economic status, exploring the feasibility and implications of accelerating this process from the perspective of "liquidity premium" [1]. Group 1: Current State of RMB Internationalization - The current level of RMB internationalization is not commensurate with China's economic scale, with RMB's share in foreign exchange trading, international payments, trade financing, and reserve currency significantly lower than its GDP share [4][5]. - RMB's share in global payments is estimated to be around 8%, with a significant portion of international payments occurring in Hong Kong [4][11]. - Historical data shows that accelerating RMB internationalization does not necessarily lead to depreciation; for instance, after the 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB appreciated against the USD for nine consecutive years [4][27]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Internationalization - The RMB market exchange rate is undervalued compared to its purchasing power parity (PPP) rate, indicating a high liquidity premium due to insufficient global liquidity [4][28]. - The current excessive liquidity of the USD, which constitutes 48.46% of global payment currency and 57.8% of reserve currency, creates a situation where the USD is overvalued [47][48]. - The external environment, including the declining USD index and rising US debt pressure, presents a favorable opportunity for RMB internationalization [40][41]. Group 3: Recommendations for Accelerating RMB Internationalization - Suggestions include further opening the capital account, providing exchange convenience for enterprises and residents, and studying the legislation of RMB stablecoins to enhance RMB's international payment and settlement roles [56][62]. - The article emphasizes the need for the central bank to gradually reduce its holdings of USD assets and increase gold reserves, which would enhance RMB's credibility [63][67]. Group 4: Economic Implications of RMB Internationalization - Accelerating RMB internationalization is expected to facilitate China's economic transformation, allowing for a potential reduction in GDP growth targets as the RMB appreciates [68][69]. - The internationalization of the RMB can help Chinese enterprises grow stronger by attracting foreign investment into the A-share market and supporting overseas mergers and acquisitions [10][73].

Group 1: Economic Impact of Population Changes - The core argument is that population changes significantly influence economic dynamics, particularly through the dependency ratio, which affects labor supply and economic contributions [1][2][3] - The dependency ratio in China has shifted from 7 dependents per 10 working-age individuals in 1980-2010 to 4.8 dependents per 10 currently, with projections indicating further increases in dependency ratios by 2050 [2][3] - The historical context shows that the population boom from 1962-1974 led to a substantial economic growth period, with GDP growth averaging around 10% during 1980-2010, contrasting with the slower growth in the U.S. [1][2] Group 2: Birth Rate and Population Forecasts - The birth rate in China is projected to decline significantly, with new births expected to drop below 900 million by 2025 and potentially fall below 700 million by 2035 [5][8] - The adjustment of birth rate models reflects a more pessimistic outlook, with 2024's new births estimated at 9.54 million, lower than previous optimistic forecasts [4][5] - Factors contributing to the declining birth rate include delayed marriages and changing societal attitudes towards family and child-rearing [11][12] Group 3: Migration Trends and Urbanization - Urbanization rates are slowing, with a notable decrease in the number of migrant workers and a trend of population returning to smaller provinces [12][13] - Major urban centers continue to attract population inflows, particularly in economically vibrant regions like Zhejiang and Shanghai, despite overall population declines in many provinces [14][15] - The movement of people is characterized by a shift from rural to urban areas, with a concentration in major metropolitan areas, enhancing productivity and service delivery [12][15] Group 4: Employment Trends in Manufacturing and Services - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline in employment, with a shift towards service industries, which are expected to absorb more labor in the future [16][17] - The service sector's contribution to GDP is increasing, with significant potential for job creation, contrasting with the stagnation in manufacturing employment [16][17] - High-tech manufacturing and service sector growth are critical for attracting population inflows, as seen in cities like Chengdu and Hefei [17]

Group 1: Population Changes and Trends - The total population of China has been decreasing since its peak in 2021, with projections indicating it will fall below 1.4 billion by 2027 and below 1.3 billion by 2039 [2][7] - The number of newborns in 2024 is expected to be 9.54 million, lower than previous predictions, with further declines anticipated in subsequent years, potentially dropping below 9 million in 2025 and 8 million in 2028 [5][6] - China entered a deep aging society in 2021, with expectations to reach super-aged status by 2032, and projections suggest it will match Japan's aging level by 2048 [8][11] Group 2: Fertility Rates and Marriage Trends - Fertility rates among women aged 15-29 are higher than those in Japan and the UK, but rates for women aged 30-49 are significantly lower, indicating a need for policies that encourage childbirth among older women [2][16] - The declining marriage rate is attributed to gender imbalance and educational disparities, with a notable surplus of males in younger age groups and a higher number of educated women than men in higher education [25][30] - The average marriage age in China is lower than in several developed countries, yet the overall fertility rate remains low, suggesting that early marriage does not necessarily lead to higher birth rates [16][17] Group 3: Urbanization and Migration Trends - Urbanization rates are slowing, with the annual growth rate dropping from 1.4 percentage points to approximately 0.8 percentage points post-2021, while the urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024 [32][36] - The proportion of migrant workers moving across provinces is decreasing, with an increasing average age of migrant workers, indicating a trend towards local employment rather than migration [39][40] - Major urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experiencing significant net population increases, reflecting ongoing urbanization trends [46][51] Group 4: Economic Implications of Population Changes - The share of the secondary industry in GDP is declining, while the tertiary sector is expected to grow, with projections indicating that the tertiary sector will account for 63% of GDP by 2024 [57][59] - Employment in the secondary industry has been decreasing since 2012, with a notable drop in industrial employment numbers expected to continue [59][64] - The aging population and rising dependency ratios will increase demand for services, suggesting a need for policies that support the growth of the service sector [65][70]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, which establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, marking a significant shift in the global financial landscape. It emphasizes that stablecoins are not challenging the dollar's credit but are altering the flow paths and pricing mechanisms of global capital, representing a revolution in "pathways" rather than "currency" [1][5][14]. Summary by Sections Stablecoins Overview - Stablecoins are extensions of the existing monetary system under digital technology, providing a bridge between traditional finance and crypto assets, enhancing transaction stability and cross-border payment capabilities [2]. - They are categorized into three types: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, each with distinct mechanisms and risk profiles [2][3][4]. Impact on the Dollar and U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoins amplify the dollar's liquidity and provide a new channel for U.S. Treasury bonds, acting as new marginal buyers in the bond market, which could influence short-term interest rates [15][17]. - The relationship between stablecoin net purchases and U.S. Treasury yields indicates that significant inflows can lower yields, while outflows can increase them, highlighting the sensitivity of the bond market to stablecoin dynamics [19]. Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, effective from August 2025, mandates 100% fiat reserves for stablecoin issuers and prohibits anonymous transactions, establishing a legal framework for stablecoins in Asia [28][29]. - This regulation aims to create a compliant dollar channel in Asia, allowing stablecoins to operate within a regulated environment, thus enhancing their legitimacy and integration into the financial system [28][30]. Market Opportunities and Investment Strategies - The article suggests focusing on companies that can provide essential services for stablecoin compliance, such as payment interfaces and identity verification, as they are likely to benefit from the new regulatory landscape [36][37]. - It highlights the potential for the Chinese yuan stablecoin pilot in Hong Kong, which could create opportunities for firms involved in digital currency infrastructure [36]. - The strategic revaluation of Hong Kong dollar assets is also noted, as stablecoins may enhance the dollar's utility and the market value of related financial instruments [37]. Global Capital Flow and Financial System Transformation - Stablecoins are reshaping global capital flows by providing a decentralized, efficient alternative to traditional banking systems, allowing for real-time, low-cost cross-border transactions [22][25]. - The emergence of stablecoins challenges existing regulatory frameworks, necessitating a reevaluation of how capital flows are monitored and controlled [26][27]. Conclusion - The establishment of stablecoin regulations signifies a pivotal moment for the dollar's role in global finance, as it transitions from a state-controlled currency to a more market-driven instrument, potentially altering the dynamics of international capital flows and financial stability [21][34].

Group 1 - The article discusses the high levels of government debt in developed countries, with Japan exceeding 250% and the US around 125%, while emerging economies maintain lower debt levels, such as ASEAN countries at approximately 30-40% [1] - It raises the question of whether economic development leads to increased debt levels and the potential for countries to collapse under high debt burdens [1] - The article suggests that the phenomenon of high debt is akin to an "aging disease" affecting economies, indicating a slow decline in economic vitality [30] Group 2 - The article highlights that global public debt is projected to reach 95.1% of GDP, potentially rising to 99.6% by 2030, with significant increases following crises such as the 2008 financial crisis [7][10] - It notes that developed countries have higher average macro leverage ratios compared to developing countries, with developed nations at 255% and developing nations at 217% as of Q3 2024 [7][10] - The article emphasizes that the rapid increase in government debt is driven by factors such as economic stagnation, demographic changes, and the need for increased military spending [10][32] Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of aging populations on economic structures, with rising dependency ratios leading to increased fiscal pressures and healthcare costs [30][32] - It points out that the global average life expectancy has risen significantly, which correlates with higher incidences of age-related diseases, further straining healthcare systems [4][5] - The article suggests that the economic decline of nations may mirror the aging process, where the vitality of economies diminishes over time, similar to biological aging [20][30] Group 4 - The article compares the life cycles of nations to those of individuals and corporations, noting that while nations can endure for long periods, they also experience phases of growth and decline [20][21] - It highlights historical examples of once-dominant nations that have since declined, such as Spain and the UK, drawing parallels to current economic trends in developed countries [22][24] - The article concludes that the current global economic landscape is characterized by high debt levels and aging populations, which may lead to prolonged periods of economic stagnation [30][32]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth, suggesting that the current focus should be on promoting consumption due to various economic conditions [1][8] - It highlights the long-standing issues in China's domestic economic circulation, such as overcapacity in certain industries and insufficient effective demand, which have persisted since 2012 [2][5] - The article notes that the contribution of final consumption to GDP in China is below 40%, compared to over 50% in many other countries, indicating a need for policies that enhance household disposable income [9][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the structural issues in fiscal spending, where approximately 85% of expenditures are concentrated at the local government level, limiting the central government's macroeconomic control [14][17] - It suggests that local governments are incentivized to focus on investment due to performance evaluations based on GDP growth, which may lead to overinvestment in certain sectors and exacerbate capacity issues [14][15] - The article proposes that improving the income distribution structure and increasing the disposable income of lower-income groups could significantly boost consumption [10][11] Group 3 - The article addresses the demographic challenges posed by an aging population, predicting a decline in total population by 2027 and emphasizing the need for adjustments in fiscal policy to support this demographic shift [18][21] - It points out that as the population ages, the contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to increase, necessitating a focus on enhancing investment efficiency and consumption multiplier effects [21][22] - The article highlights the importance of aligning infrastructure investment with population migration trends to optimize resource allocation and improve economic efficiency [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent US-China trade negotiations and the impact of tariffs on China's exports and economy, emphasizing the need for comprehensive economic discussions beyond just tariffs [1][2][3]. Tariff Negotiations and Impacts - As of May 12, 2025, both the US and China had imposed tariffs of 125% and 145% respectively, but agreed to suspend 91% of these tariffs and delay 24% for 90 days for further negotiations [1][2]. - The "fentanyl tariffs" imposed by the US account for 30% of tariffs on Chinese goods, with a significant portion justified by claims of inadequate Chinese action against fentanyl [2][3]. - If negotiations do not yield results within 90 days, China could face an average tariff increase to 47.4%, significantly impacting trade relations [3][8]. Export Projections - The tariffs are projected to reduce China's exports by approximately 1.2 trillion RMB in 2025, leading to an estimated year-on-year decline of 4.5% [5][11]. - The average tariff on Chinese exports to the US is expected to rise by 32.6% if negotiations are successful, while a failure could see tariffs average 47.7% [8][9]. Economic Growth and GDP Impact - The increase in tariffs is estimated to reduce China's GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points in 2025, with potential further declines depending on the outcome of negotiations [12][13]. - The elasticity of China's GDP growth in response to US tariffs is estimated at -0.02, indicating that each percentage point increase in tariffs could reduce GDP growth by 0.02 percentage points [13]. Trade Dynamics and Strategies - The article highlights the importance of diversifying trade relationships, particularly with ASEAN and Mexico, as these regions have shown faster export growth compared to overall Chinese exports [10]. - The potential for increased re-export trade through these regions is noted, with estimates suggesting a significant rise in trade volumes in the short term [10]. Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that China should implement fiscal policies to stimulate domestic consumption, especially in light of expected declines in exports [14][15]. - It advocates for a shift in focus from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth, proposing measures such as expanding consumer subsidies and enhancing financial openness [14][17].

Core Viewpoint - A structural transformation is occurring in the Chinese economy, characterized by a concentration of capital and technology in leading enterprises, particularly in AI and high-end manufacturing, while employment and consumption lag behind [1][2][3] Group 1: AI Technology Breakthrough - The domestic AI model DeepSeek has achieved significant breakthroughs, showcasing higher reasoning efficiency and local computing compatibility, marking a shift towards commercial expansion of Chinese AI models [1][2] - The valuation logic in the capital market is changing as Chinese AI companies transition from relying on foreign technology to establishing their own core capabilities, leading to a re-evaluation of their long-term growth potential [2][3] - A significant concentration of investment is observed in leading AI firms, with the DeepSeek index rising by 41.61% from February 4 to March 18, 2025, compared to a mere 22.37% increase in the Hang Seng Index during the same period [2][3][6] - The "winner-takes-all" dynamic is evident, where investment flows heavily favor a few leading companies, creating a feedback loop that enhances their competitive edge [3][4][6] Group 2: Industrial Upgrade and Concentration - High-end manufacturing is increasingly reliant on strong R&D capabilities and system integration, with government support favoring leading firms capable of overcoming technical challenges [9][10] - The concentration of capital in high-end manufacturing is not due to a lack of innovation among smaller firms, but rather the necessity for complete industrial chain support and strategic execution aligned with policy [10][11] - The average price-to-earnings ratio of leading firms in the industrial mother machine sector increased by over 20% in 2024, while second-tier firms saw declines, indicating a clear preference for established leaders [10][11] Group 3: New Cycle of Tech Investment and Employment Market - Despite a surge in tech investment, the employment market is experiencing structural challenges, with a significant drop in venture capital investment events, down nearly 50% from 2021 highs [13][15] - The investment focus has shifted towards a few hard-tech sectors, leaving traditional employment-intensive industries underfunded and shrinking, leading to a mismatch in job supply and demand [19][20] - The automation trend is exacerbating employment issues, as companies like BYD see revenue growth outpacing employee growth, reducing overall job absorption capacity [22][25] Group 4: Policy Expectations and Economic Structure - The current macroeconomic policy is transitioning towards structural adjustments, emphasizing quality and stability over broad stimulus measures [26][27] - The government faces a dual challenge of advancing key technologies while ensuring employment stability, leading to a more nuanced approach to economic policy [27][28] - Recent policy measures indicate a shift towards supporting strategic sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing, while traditional industries may continue to face valuation challenges [28][29] Group 5: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The core assets in the AI sector are now driven by engineering capabilities and profitability rather than mere policy support, indicating a shift towards long-term asset allocation [30][31] - Investment strategies should focus on defensive assets, leading AI firms, and safety assets like gold and military equipment, reflecting the current market dynamics and policy direction [33]

Core Viewpoint - The high tariffs exceeding 120% between China and the U.S. are unsustainable due to the strong economic interdependence, leading to expectations for negotiations to lower tariffs [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Tariff Overview - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, starting with a 10% rate and escalating to 145% without prior communication with China, contrasting with the previous trade conflict where negotiations were ongoing [2][4] - China responded with tariffs of 125%, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions compared to the 2018 trade disputes [4][5] Negotiation Dynamics - Recent statements from Chinese officials suggest a willingness to engage in discussions, but emphasize that negotiations should not be limited to tariff reductions alone [3][5] - The U.S. has introduced policies that restrict investments and impose additional scrutiny on Chinese companies, which should also be part of any negotiation framework [5][6] Broader Economic Implications - The U.S. Trade Representative's actions against China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries could severely impact China's shipping and shipbuilding sectors, which dominate globally [6] - The potential for a U.S. debt crisis could create conditions favorable for negotiations, as the U.S. faces significant debt pressures [10][11] Political Context - The current U.S. administration is characterized by a strong anti-China sentiment, driven by key advisors advocating for aggressive trade policies [7][8][9] - The unpredictability of U.S. political dynamics may lead to shifts in negotiation strategies, especially under pressure from domestic economic conditions [12] Long-term Outlook - The ongoing trade conflict may be just the beginning of a broader struggle between the U.S. and China, with both sides likely to continue exerting pressure in various domains [13][14]

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 2016 年 4 月初，我刚开设微信公众号不久，便很积极地写作。当时股市的机会不多，人民币则经历了从2005-14年的 九年升值之后开始贬值，故大家换美元的热情比较高。但美元真的很值得长期持有吗？我对于一致预期通常都持怀疑态 度。于是我就写了一篇《换美元不如买黄金》。逻辑很简单：各国为了应对经济不振的难题，基本采取了超发货币的对 策，美国也不例外，即货币的增速远超黄金产量的增速。 原本以为这一观点无可争辩，谁知留言中以批评居多。暗想这么简单的道理大家居然都没有想明白，又奋笔疾书，写了 《 再论换美元不如买黄金 》，以为可以平息争论，谁知却引发更大的争议。 留言 1 ：李总，历史上黄金两大周期都是短牛长熊，如何确定目前熊市已经走完？还有一个数据是，实物投资金需求量和金价走势拟合 度较，一季度金价大涨，但实物投资金需求改善不大，那是否预示着金价上涨是不可持续的？ 留言 2 ：黄金只有消费属性，与货币没有关系了，只是不明白各国央行买那么多黄金干什么？ 留言 3 ：为何巴菲特不买黄金？因为黄金不能下崽，没有利息，持有它只有成本，其盈利全靠高价卖给别人。美 ...