ETF进化论 突然开火！原油、金价急拉 原创 阅读全文 ...

2025 年上半年，全球经济航船在贸易摩擦加剧与政策不确定性升腾的漩涡中艰难前行。 世界银行最新数据显示，全球近七成经济体遭遇增长预期下调，整体经济增速已滑落至 2.3% ，创下 2008 年金融危机以来的最低纪录。 相比之下，中国经济在政策有力护航下展现出相对韧性，全年增长预期锚定 5% ，然而内需修 复的持续性、地产风险的化解进程以及全球产业链重构带来的压力，仍构成复杂挑战。 主要经济体增长普遍乏力：美国受制于高利率与关税冲击，增速放缓至 1.4% ；欧元区与日本 表现更为疲弱，双双仅录得 0.7% 的微弱增长；新兴市场的增长势头亦显著减弱。 阴霾之中，新质生产力正孕育着变革的曙光。 人工智能（ AI ）应用迎来大规模落地的元年，深刻重塑产业图景；绿色能源转型加速推进； 中国新能源汽车出口更是异军突起，同比激增 70% 。 与此同时，在全球 " 去美元化 " 浪潮涌动之下，中国资产的价值重估机遇悄然显现。 值此百年未有之大变局下，面对机遇与风险并存的复杂棋局，投资者该如何调整舵轮，优化策 略，才能行稳致远呢？ 2025 年 7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇·中期策略峰会· 2 025 将再度于深圳启幕。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, highlighting the geopolitical implications and market reactions in Asia, particularly in the A-share market. Group 1: U.S. Military Action - The U.S. launched a surprise attack on Iran, utilizing 6 B-2 bombers to drop 12 GBU-57A/B bombs weighing 13.6 tons on the Fordow nuclear facility, and fired 30 Tomahawk missiles from submarines at Natanz and Isfahan [1][3]. - Trump announced the completion of the strikes on social media, claiming that the Fordow facility no longer exists [3]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the U.S. strikes were coordinated with Israel [4]. Group 2: Iranian Response - Iran claimed to have evacuated the three nuclear facilities prior to the attack, stating that only the above-ground parts of Fordow were damaged and can be repaired [5]. - A humorous commentary emerged, suggesting that all parties involved claimed victory after the strikes [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the military actions, the A-share market showed resilience, with over 4,200 stocks rising and 71 hitting the daily limit up, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [7]. - Key sectors that performed well included stablecoins, shipping oil and gas, semiconductors, and solid-state batteries, while a few sectors like pork and liquor saw declines [9]. - The article emphasizes the need to focus on sectors that are relatively immune to the Iran-Israel conflict, such as semiconductors, stablecoins, and solid-state batteries [9].

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 6月13日以来，中国股票市场整体进入新一轮调整期。今日，在银行权重、小微盘股发力之下，三大指数略有反 弹。 然而，新消费等前期有赚钱效应的板块依旧萎靡，全市场成交也愈发寡淡。最近两个交易日，沪深京三市成交仅 1.1万亿左右，与之前的1.5万亿水平下滑较大。 这些热门新消费企业则是此前资金抱团的代表，涨幅在几个月之内高达数倍。为什么突然开始瓦解大杀估值了 呢？ 首先，加大内需刺激托经济的预期暂时被证伪。 在 6月5日中美通话之前，美国对华加征关税反反复复，市场对 于90天到期之后是否还会恢复加征关税抱有很大分歧，主流预期依旧是不乐观。 但通话定调了，加之中美在伦敦接触，向市场释放了明确信号 ——中方握有稀土这张王牌，美国难以在关税问题 上再度发难。那么，加大内需刺激对冲关税稳经济的宏观逻辑暂时就不成立了。 6月15日，据统计局披露数据显示，5月社零消费同比增长6.4%，大超市场预期的4.9%和前值的5.1%。其中， 以旧换新商品增速高达34%，成为支撑社零最重要的力量。这一数据越好，代表当前经济增长表现较好，也暗示 了接下来内需刺 ...

格隆汇新股 手握21亿美金BD！上海浦东冲出一家创新药IPO，创始人来自三生制药 原创 阅读全文 ...

历史的指针划过 2025 年的中轴，世界正以惊人的加速度重构底层逻辑。 当人工智能算法重写生产力方程，生物科技解码生命密码，这个被 " 新质生产力 " 重新定义 的时代，全球经济版图正经历一场静默而深刻的变革。 这是一场波澜壮阔的文明跃迁。 历史的经验告诉我们，任何一次真正的转型都伴随着阵痛与淬炼。 地缘政治 "黑天鹅"、货币政策"温差"、特朗普反复"整活"……世界格局变得暗潮汹涌。 在东西方文明的张力场里，中国经济正惊心动魄的进行着 "量子跃迁"。 顺着时空长河望去，我们比任何时候都更需要清醒认知：这不是简单寻常的商业周期轮动。 这场全球波谲云诡的压力测试中，唯有破局而立、向新而生。 而那些历史的重大转折，往往始于少数人洞见未来的勇气。 欢迎各位同行者报名参与 7 月 4-5 日深圳不见不散！ 鹏城七月，凤凰木开得正艳。深圳湾的海风依旧带着改革初年的锐意，如今这片热土仍充斥着 肆意昂扬。 2025 年 7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇 2025 中期策略峰会将再度于深圳启幕。 我们力邀了顶尖思想领袖与实战精英共赴这场思想盛宴，在变局的十字路口，在思想的激烈碰 撞中，一同绘制属于下半年的价值图谱。 历史从来不 ...

ETF进化论 大反攻！又传出新消息。。 原创 阅读全文 ...

比亚迪押注，深圳龙岗冲出一家半导体IPO，3年亏5亿 原创 阅读全文 格隆汇新股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the interactive game "Emotional Fraud Simulator" (formerly known as "Lao Nu Game") on the Steam platform has sparked significant controversy, yet it achieved impressive sales, ranking second in the domestic market and eighth globally on its first day, indicating strong player interest in innovative game themes [1]. Content Development - The popularity of games like "Lao Nu Game" and "I Am Surrounded by Beauties" reflects the diversification of content and forms in domestic games [3][2]. - Historically, domestic games focused on themes such as fantasy, martial arts, and historical warfare, with early games primarily involving monster fighting and leveling up [4]. - The game "I Am Surrounded by Beauties" utilizes real-life interactive video to create a modern urban story filled with romance and adventure, providing an immersive experience for players [5]. - "Lao Nu Game" addresses the social issue of emotional fraud, presenting a unique perspective that is rare in previous game themes [5]. - Prior to its launch, "Lao Nu Game" generated significant discussion on social media, with related topics reaching millions of views, indicating widespread interest beyond just gamers [5]. - The traditional game formats of 3D modeling and 2D hand-drawing are being challenged by new forms like real-life interactive video, which blurs the lines between gaming and film, enhancing player engagement [5]. - The domestic gaming industry is no longer confined to a single competitive lane, with various niche segments emerging, including independent games that gain popularity through word-of-mouth despite lacking major promotional resources [6]. Market Performance - The game "Black Myth: Wukong" achieved over 10 million global sales within three days of its launch and surpassed 20 million sales within a month, showcasing the strength of Chinese games [7]. - Since 2020, the annual sales revenue of self-developed digital games from China in overseas markets has consistently exceeded 100 billion RMB, with nearly half of the revenue coming from established gaming markets like the US and Japan [7]. - Chinese game developers are diversifying their distribution channels, utilizing social media and live streaming platforms for promotion, which enhances game visibility through various interactive topics [7]. - The future of the Chinese gaming industry appears promising, with continuous innovation in both content and form, providing players with unprecedented experiences [7]. - The Chinese gaming sector is making strides in the global market, aiming to create more internationally influential game brands and secure a more significant position in the global gaming industry [7]. Future Outlook - There is an expectation for more game companies to release a variety of high-quality games in the near future, with recent inflows of capital into the gaming sector suggesting a potential bullish market for gaming stocks [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising gold prices on the jewelry industry, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional gold jewelry retailers like Chow Tai Fook amid changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [2][5][27]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2022, gold prices have seen significant increases, with average closing prices for Au9999 rising by 5%, 15%, and 24% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - Despite an initial increase in gold jewelry consumption by 8% in 2023, there was a sharp decline of 24.7% thereafter, indicating that high gold prices can dampen consumer demand for jewelry [5]. - The market pressure is particularly acute for gold jewelry stores that rely on processing fees, leading to operational challenges [6]. Group 2: Company Performance - Chow Tai Fook's stock price dropped over 30% in 2024, with a market value loss of approximately 800 million HKD from its peak [7]. - The company's financial performance fell short of expectations, with net profit significantly below market forecasts and gross margins at their lowest since 2009 [8]. - Despite these challenges, Chow Tai Fook's stock has rebounded since April 2024, with significant increases in the A-share market and Hong Kong jewelry index [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Chow Tai Fook closed 180 stores in mainland China in 2024, reducing its total store count from 7,549 to 6,644 by the end of the 2025 fiscal year [15][16]. - The company aims to focus on "high-quality new stores" rather than sheer expansion, optimizing its channel layout and reducing inventory pressure [17]. - The decline in store numbers is seen as a correction of past over-expansion, which may ultimately benefit the company's operational efficiency [17]. Group 4: Profitability and Growth - Chow Tai Fook's operating profit margin improved by 4 percentage points to 16.4% in the 2025 fiscal year, with operating profit increasing by 9.8% to 14.75 billion HKD [20]. - The company's gross margin rose against the trend of declining margins in the industry, reaching 29.5%, second only to the leading brand, Lao Pu Gold [23]. - The increase in gross margin is attributed to the "fixed price" model, which includes design and craftsmanship, enhancing the perceived value of products [24]. Group 5: Consumer Trends - The demand for gold jewelry in China has remained strong, with the retail contribution of gold jewelry reaching 59% in 2024 [32]. - Younger consumers, particularly those aged 25 to 34, have significantly increased their share of gold jewelry purchases, rising from 16% to 59% [36]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards lightweight, well-designed gold jewelry has led to a rise in sales of products weighing less than 10 grams and priced below 2,000 RMB [39]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The gold jewelry industry is undergoing a transformation, with a notable shift towards e-commerce and personalized products driven by younger consumers [42][43]. - Despite the challenges, established brands like Chow Tai Fook are expected to recover due to their strong brand presence and ability to adapt to market trends [46]. - Long-term prospects for gold jewelry companies remain positive, with franchise models offering lower capital investment and strong profitability potential [48].