文/国联民生证券总裁 葛小波 ，国联民生证券战略发展总部副总经理 刘小萌 科创板宣布设立七周年，长三角"硬科技"企业借政策东风加速崛起，未盈 利第五套标准、科创债风险分担、创新券等组合拳显著降低融资成本。证 监会"科创八条" "科创十六条"再拓融资渠道，并购、再融资、跨境需求同 步爆发。证券公司正从"通道"转为"全生命周期合伙人"，须重塑估值体 系、三位一体客户网络与AI、区块链、ETF等金融工程工具，深度嵌入产 业链协同与区域创新生态，与科创企业共生共长，共筑新质生产力竞争壁 垒。 科创板设立以来，已经有数百家企业通过科创板上市，成功地支持了科创企业的发展，当然也存在进一步改善和提高的潜力。近年来，国家出台了一系列 支持科技创新的政策，旨在推动科创企业的发展，提升国家的科技竞争力。中国证监会发布了《关于深化科创板改革 服务科技创新和新质生产力发展的 八条措施》（"科创板八条"）、《资本市场服务科技企业高水平发展的十六项措施》（"科创十六条"）多项深化改革的政策，进一步提升了资本市场对科 技企业，特别是未盈利科技企业的包容性和适应性。上述政策从拓宽融资渠道、降低融资成本、优化市场环境等多方面提升科创企业的融资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of advancing financial legal development on the legal track to achieve high-quality financial growth in China, aligning with the goals set forth in the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Legal System Construction - The construction of a scientific and complete financial legal system is essential, focusing on foundational financial laws, central bank legal systems, financial stability laws, and financial regulatory laws [2][12]. - Strengthening the legal framework for financial stability is crucial, with ongoing efforts to draft a financial stability law aimed at comprehensive risk prevention and management [13][14]. Group 2: Financial Governance and Regulation - The article highlights the need for modernizing the financial governance system and enhancing governance capabilities, ensuring that financial institutions operate in compliance with laws and regulations [6][10]. - It stresses the importance of strict financial regulation and enforcement, advocating for the revision of existing laws to adapt to the evolving financial landscape [14][15]. Group 3: International Financial Law - Enhancing international financial legal frameworks is necessary for promoting high-level openness and addressing external risks, including money laundering and financial sanctions [14][10]. - The article calls for active participation in international rule-making and cooperation in law enforcement to safeguard national interests [14][15]. Group 4: Financial Legal Talent Development - Building a competent financial legal workforce is vital, focusing on training professionals who are well-versed in both finance and law [15]. - The article emphasizes the need for leadership in financial institutions to adopt a strong legal mindset and enhance their legal capabilities [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" since its enactment, highlighting the efforts made by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in collaboration with various departments and localities to promote the law's execution [3] - Over 140 supporting measures have been introduced to address the core concerns of private enterprises, ensuring the requirements of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" are effectively implemented [3] - The NDRC aims to provide a legal "assurance" for private enterprises and entrepreneurs by resolving specific issues through case studies, indicating that practical applications of the law are more impactful than mere documentation [3] Group 2 - The NDRC plans to continue its efforts with greater intensity, more practical measures, and additional methods to promote the learning, publicity, and implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable growth of profits in large-scale industrial enterprises in China during the first ten months of 2025, driven by effective implementation of national policies and a focus on domestic and international economic circulation [4]. Group 1: Profit Data Overview - From January to October 2025, state-controlled enterprises achieved a total profit of 1,849.02 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year; joint-stock enterprises reported a profit of 4,432.83 billion yuan, up 1.5%; foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises made 1,484.86 billion yuan, increasing by 3.5%; and private enterprises earned 1,699.56 billion yuan, rising by 1.9% [3]. - The overall profit of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 1.9% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of profit growth since August 2025 [4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The mining sector saw a decline of 27.8%, although the drop was 1.5 percentage points less than the previous period; manufacturing experienced a growth of 7.7%; and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 9.5% [4]. - Equipment manufacturing profits increased by 7.8%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises, with its profit share rising to 38.5% [5]. - High-tech manufacturing profits rose by 8.0%, outperforming the average industrial profit growth by 6.1 percentage points, with significant growth in smart electronics and semiconductor manufacturing [5]. Group 3: Traditional Industry Upgrades - Traditional industries showed significant improvements, with profits in certain sectors like chemical and building materials exceeding the industry average, particularly in graphite and carbon products, which grew by 77.7% [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article emphasizes the need for continued policy implementation to address complex international and domestic challenges, aiming to enhance domestic demand, optimize structure, and foster new growth drivers for the industrial economy [7].

以下文章来源于熊园观察 ，作者熊园、杨涛 熊园观察 . 记录【国盛证券.熊园团队】对宏观经济的思考。 文/ 国盛证券首席经济学家 熊园 ，国盛证券宏观分析师 杨涛 本文 从地产的 供给端 、 需 求端 出 发， 详细 拆解 地产 增量 和存 量供 给 ，刚 性、改善、投资、拆迁需求，再结合债务端、房价端，综合分析当前地产 景气位置和未来走势。 2024年9月中央出台一揽子地产刺激政策后，我国楼市迎来一波反弹，2025年一季度更是出现"小阳春"，市场燃起了地产触底的希望；但二季度以来，我 国地产景气再度下滑，一线城市房价甚至有加速下滑趋势，指向地产仍在下行通道当中。地产目前所处位置如何、何时能够真正触底？这一问题对分析我 国经济形势、投资决策都有重要意义。 本文从地产的供给端、需求端出发，构建了较为完整的中长期地产供需分析框架，以分析地产景气的中长期均衡。此外，还从居民债务压力、房价角度进 行侧面分析补充。 地产供给：新开工减少6成，库存仍在高位，存量住房已经足够，但结构性短缺仍存 增量看，房地产的新增供给跟随需求变化，近年来自高点已下降6成。这是由于住房建设作为成熟产业，并没有严格的供给瓶颈，建设多少房子，主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, 2025, primarily due to increasing liquidity pressure in the U.S. market and escalating fiscal burdens. This move may provide short-term relief for global dollar liquidity but could amplify volatility in emerging markets in the medium to long term [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Stopping Balance Sheet Reduction - U.S. market liquidity is nearing a warning threshold, with bank reserves dropping to $2.93 trillion (approximately 9% of GDP), close to the "money shortage" threshold of $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion observed in 2019. Overnight rates, such as SOFR, have exceeded the target range, and the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has surged to over $10 billion in a single day, indicating heightened financing pressures [3]. - Fiscal pressures are forcing a policy shift, as U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with net interest payments approaching defense budget levels. Continued balance sheet reduction raises government financing costs and exacerbates debt risks, leading to repeated calls from the White House for the Fed to lower interest rates, challenging the Fed's policy independence [3]. - Economic data shows weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% in September 2025, indicating a cooling job market. Although inflation has decreased to 3%, it remains above the 2% target [3]. Group 2: Impact of Stopping Balance Sheet Reduction - In the short term, this decision is favorable as it improves liquidity, alleviates dollar financing costs, reduces repo rate volatility, and supports U.S. equity and bond markets. Emerging market capital is expected to flow back, leading to a weaker dollar (recently fluctuating between 99-100), with increased northbound capital inflows into A-shares and high-dividend assets in Hong Kong. The attractiveness of RMB assets is rising, supported by improved China-U.S. interest rate differentials and a peak season for exporters' currency conversion, enhancing the long-term appreciation expectations for the RMB [5]. - In the medium to long term, risks may arise, including increased volatility in emerging markets and potential local bubbles or debt risks due to cross-border capital "tidal effects," reminiscent of the turmoil in emerging markets following the end of balance sheet reduction in 2019. There are also inflationary concerns; if economic resilience exceeds expectations, inflation rebound could limit the Fed's capacity to lower interest rates [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Direction - Future policy may involve technical operations rather than quantitative easing (QE). The Fed may reinvest maturing MBS funds into short-term Treasury bonds to shorten asset duration. The New York Fed has indicated that if reserves fall to a critical point of $2.7 trillion, structural balance sheet expansion may be initiated, such as purchasing short-term Treasury bonds. However, QE is not expected to be implemented in the short term, as the current federal funds rate is between 3.75% and 4.0%, well above the zero lower bound, and conventional rate-cutting tools remain effective [7]. Group 4: Capital Market Considerations - There are opportunities for RMB asset allocation, particularly in high-dividend sectors of A-shares (banking, power, coal) with dividend yields reaching 3.8%, significantly higher than the U.S. stock market's 1.6%. The trend of foreign capital allocation is clear, supported by easing U.S. monetary policy and a narrowing decline in Chinese exports to the U.S. [9]. - Market volatility risks should be monitored, as U.S. tech stock valuations are at historical highs, with the NASDAQ's PE-TTM at 36.95 times, indicating ongoing short-term adjustment pressures. The lagging effects of Fed policy may impact corporate bonds, especially those with low ratings [9]. - It is important to note that the Fed's current policy shift is a passive adjustment under debt constraints rather than an active stimulus. Investors should focus on defensive strategies, increasing allocations to high-dividend assets, and pay attention to liquidity expectations adjustments in the upcoming December meeting. China's economy may benefit from improved external demand and capital inflows, but caution is warranted regarding cross-border volatility triggered by mixed signals from the Fed [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the opportunities and challenges in the context of China's economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of global trade dynamics and external demand in driving China's economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: Globalization and Trade Dynamics - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for China's modernization, requiring a systematic understanding of the globalized environment [2]. - Favorable factors for China's development include advancements in technology and industry, which provide new engines for global economic growth [4]. - However, challenges such as rising unilateralism and protectionism pose significant threats to international trade and economic order [4]. - Historical data shows that world trade growth has fluctuated, with recent trends indicating a recovery in trade growth outpacing GDP growth [5][6]. Group 2: Trade Growth Drivers - The export value of manufactured goods has significantly increased, with a 28.7% growth from the beginning to the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6]. - High-tech and high-value-added products are becoming a larger share of global trade, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [6]. - The article predicts that global trade will continue to recover, with world exports expected to reach $25.8 trillion by 2025, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year growth [5]. Group 3: China's Economic Performance - China's net exports have played a significant role in GDP growth, contributing approximately 1.5 percentage points in 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025 [8]. - Despite challenges in domestic consumption and investment due to structural changes, net exports have shown robust growth, averaging 11.8% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8]. - Recent data indicates that while domestic consumption and investment have slowed, external demand remains strong, with exports showing resilience [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Recommendations - The article suggests that to address domestic demand issues, China should focus on expanding international market demand and leveraging external demand to counteract internal structural changes [13]. - Recommendations include optimizing trade structures, enhancing service trade, and promoting digital trade to stimulate economic growth [13]. - The importance of maintaining a favorable external environment for trade and investment is emphasized, as it remains a critical driver for China's economic stability and growth [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines a comprehensive plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to significantly optimize the supply structure by 2027 and establish a high-quality development pattern by 2030, with a focus on cultural and high-quality consumer products [6][7]. Group 1: Key Tasks - The plan includes 19 key tasks across five main areas: expanding new increments, deepening existing stock, segmenting markets, empowering scenarios, and optimizing the environment [4]. - It emphasizes the acceleration of new technology and model innovation, including the promotion of flexible manufacturing and the integration of artificial intelligence in the consumer goods sector [8][9]. Group 2: Product Supply Enhancement - The plan aims to expand the supply of distinctive and new products, focusing on green products, rural consumption upgrades, and the development of leisure and sports products [10][11]. - It encourages innovation in health products and aims to enhance the influence of historical classic products, promoting traditional crafts and cultural heritage [11][12]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - The strategy includes precise matching of different demographic needs, such as enriching the supply of children's products, enhancing quality student supplies, and expanding fashionable "trendy" products [13][14]. - It also focuses on optimizing products for the elderly, ensuring comfort and functionality in elder care products [14][15]. Group 4: New Consumption Scenarios - The plan promotes the establishment of new consumption scenarios and business models, including the support for flagship stores and innovative retail formats [16]. - It encourages the development of platform consumption and shared consumption models, leveraging technology to enhance consumer experiences [16][17]. Group 5: Supportive Environment - The plan outlines measures to strengthen financial support for the consumer goods industry, including the promotion of consumption finance products and government procurement [17]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining market order and enhancing regulatory measures to ensure product quality and safety [18].

中共北京市委关于制定北京市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议 （2025年11月17日中国共产党北京市第十三届委员会第七次全体会议通过） 中国共产党北京市第十三届委员会第七次全体会议深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，就制定北京市国民经济和社会发展"十五五"规划 提出如下建议。 一、"十五五"时期是北京率先基本实现社会主义现代化的关键时期 （1）"十四五"时期重大成就为接续发展奠定了坚实基础。"十四五"时期是极不平凡的五年，在党中央坚强领导下，市委带领全市人民坚持以 习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻习近平总书记对北京重要讲话精神，团结奋斗、锐意进取，经受住世纪疫情冲击，有 效应对一系列风险挑战，推动各项事业取得重大成就。"四个中心"功能不断增强，"四个服务"水平大幅提高，中央政务功能布局和政务环境持 续优化，圆满完成一系列重大活动服务保障，大国首都风范充分展现。京津冀协同发展走深走实，协作机制更加完善，疏解非首都功能坚定 有序，市级行政机关完成搬迁，北京城市副中心框架全面拉开，助力雄安新区建设取得显著进展，交通、生态、产业、公共服务等领域协同 实现新突破。经济发展稳中有进，经济总量跨过两 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the theme of "革故鼎新" (reform and innovation) for 2026, highlighting significant changes in economic growth, industry transitions, and macroeconomic policies compared to 2025 [5][7]. Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth is expected to increase from 4% in 2025 to 5% in 2026, driven by a recovery in inflation [9][82]. - The economic growth model is characterized as "修复式增长" (restorative growth), indicating a gradual recovery rather than a typical economic rebound [13][19]. Industry Changes - Traditional industries are declining while new industries are emerging, with AI becoming a key driver of economic growth [10][35]. - The real estate sector is still undergoing adjustments, with a significant drop in investment by 14.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [28]. Internal and External Economic Rebalancing - The article stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation for economic development, moving away from reliance on external demand [10][40]. - Consumer spending is projected to recover in 2026, supported by policies aimed at increasing household income and consumption [11][45]. Policy Adjustments - Macroeconomic policies will focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals, maintaining a supportive stance in both fiscal and monetary policies [11][76]. - The fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a budget deficit rate maintained at around 4% [74]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is anticipated to rebound in 2026, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments expected to increase by 5% [73]. - The real estate investment is projected to decline by 10%, but its decreasing share in total investment may lessen its overall impact [73]. Inflation and Currency Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise, with CPI projected to grow by approximately 0.4% in 2026, compared to zero growth in 2025 [80][82]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to continue appreciating, potentially reaching 6.9 CNY/USD by the end of 2026 [83].