5月17日-18日 2025清华五道口全球金融论坛 于深圳盛大召开 汇聚国内外金融界 领袖、学者及行业精英 浓缩思维干货 定位思维坐标 主题十一：人口老龄化的挑战与应对 主题十二：普惠金融促进包容共进 主题十三：金融助力文化和旅游业成为支柱产业 这两场的嘉宾金句干货已打包完毕 快查收↓↓↓ 主题讨论十一 人口老龄化的挑战与应对 白川方明 日本央行前行长 日本青山大学杰出客座教授 周延礼 原中国保险监督管理委员会 党委副书记、副主席 董克用 清华五道口养老金融50人论坛秘书长 中国人民大学公共管理学院、劳动人事学院原院长 塞尔吉奥·巴比诺特 欧洲保险业联合会前主席 主题十二 普惠金融促进包容共进 阿里·基亚祖丁·穆罕默德 普惠金融联盟政策管理负责人 魏晨 魏晨阳 清华大学五道口金融学院研究员 中国保险与养老金融研究中心主任 金融MBA教育中心主任 王忠民 全国社会保障基金理事会原副理事长 深圳市金融稳定发展研究院理事长 苏里斯·萨姆努冯 老挝人民民主共和国银行副行长 彭立峰 中国人民银行信贷市场司司长 徐淑贤 AFI副首席执行官兼首席运营官 主题十三 中国人民银行原副行长 刘华 世界知识产权组织中国办事处主任 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current dollar cycle exhibits unprecedented characteristics, with its resilience surpassing historical experiences. This cycle shows three unusual behaviors: divergence from reserve currency share, divergence from fiscal and trade deficit expansion, and divergence from high inflation [2][3][7]. Historical Review and Current Characteristics - The dollar cycle has extended for 17 years since 2008, with a 40% increase, marking the longest uptrend since the Bretton Woods system's dissolution. The current dollar index peak exceeds the historical high of the 1990s [5][4]. Unusual Divergences - The first divergence is the decline in the dollar's share of global reserves from over 60% to just above 50% since 2015, despite a strong dollar index [7][10]. - The second divergence involves the fiscal deficit, which has reached nearly 15% of GDP, yet the dollar remains strong, contrary to traditional expectations [7][8]. - The third divergence is the occurrence of 9% inflation in the U.S. without a corresponding depreciation of the dollar, as other developed economies also face high inflation [10][11]. Mechanisms Driving the Dollar Cycle - The dollar cycle is influenced by fundamental, policy, and capital flow mechanisms, with geopolitical factors playing a significant role. The interaction between the real and financial sectors can lead to "overshooting" of the dollar cycle [3][13]. - The fundamental aspect is crucial, as the dollar index correlates with the U.S. GDP growth relative to other countries. The relative strength of the dollar is maintained as long as the U.S. economy performs better than its competitors [11][13]. Policy and Capital Flow Influences - The U.S. monetary policy's relative tightness supports the dollar, while international capital inflows, particularly into U.S. equities, have shifted from traditional treasury purchases [17][19]. - The dollar's strength is also supported by the unique structure of the U.S. economy, which has become less dependent on global trade, allowing it to withstand the negative effects of a strong dollar [14][15]. Potential Downturn of the Dollar - There are indications that the dollar may have entered a downtrend due to weakening relative advantages of the U.S. economy, increasing global competition, and structural changes in the asset-liability dynamics of the U.S. [20][21]. - The U.S. has strong incentives to seek a weaker dollar, as it can help address the rising current account deficit and manage its extensive foreign liabilities [21][23]. Future Considerations - The future trajectory of the dollar will depend on the internal correction mechanisms within the U.S. economy, influenced by various political and economic forces [26][27]. - The ongoing competition in technology, particularly with China, and the evolving geopolitical landscape will also play critical roles in determining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [27][23].

220 | 央行等四部门发声， 前4个月全国财政收入 A TSINGHUA PBCSF 降幅继续收窄 2025年第21期 Financial Weekly 总第220期 2025年5月26日 el Haster 每周金融评论 . . Financial Weekly 母周会融评论 目录 CONTENTS 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎ 特朗普:6月1日起对欧盟征收50%关税 MEETINGS ◎ 央行等四部门发声,加快构建科技金融体制 POLICIES EVENTS ◎ 人民银行、国家外汇管理局发布《关于境内企业境外上市 资金管理有关问题的通知(征求意见稿 )》 重要数字 DATA ◎ 前4个月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长4.6% E ◎ 八部门联合印发《支持小微企业融资的若干措施》 ◎ 国常会审议通过《制造业绿色低碳发展行动方案 (2025-2027年)》 央行等四部门发声，加快构建科技金融体制 热点 特朗普：6月1日起对欧盟征收50%关税 当地时间5月23日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国不能在欧盟销售汽车很"不好"，不寻 求达成协议，6月1日起对欧盟征收50%关税。如果他们在这里建工厂，可以讨论延 期。 《清华金融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods, highlighting the potential economic impacts on both the EU and the US, as well as the broader implications for global trade dynamics [1][3][6]. Group 1: Reasons for Trump's Tariff Threat - The tariff threat serves as a negotiation pressure tactic aimed at accelerating trade talks with the EU, particularly regarding issues like digital service taxes and regulatory coordination [3]. - The US faces a significant trade deficit with the EU, amounting to $235.6 billion in 2024, with nearly 40% attributed to the automotive sector, prompting Trump to accuse the EU of unfair trade practices [3]. - Domestic political considerations are also at play, as the upcoming 2025 elections require Trump to fulfill promises related to revitalizing American manufacturing, which could resonate with voters in industrial states [3]. - The US aims to leverage tariffs to influence EU policies towards China, seeking to align EU actions with US interests in limiting Chinese supply chains [4]. Group 2: Potential Consequences of High Tariffs - The EU economy would be significantly impacted, particularly German car manufacturers like Porsche and Audi, which could face substantial losses and potential layoffs due to reduced exports to the US [7]. - The US could experience inflationary pressures as consumers bear the cost of increased prices for goods such as automobiles and alcohol, leading to higher household expenditures [7]. - A global economic ripple effect may occur, with financial markets experiencing volatility and companies shifting production to regions like Mexico and Southeast Asia, ultimately passing increased costs onto consumers [7]. - The EU may respond with concessions, such as increasing imports of US agricultural products, but is unlikely to accept unilateral US demands, potentially leading to a "lose-lose" scenario for both economies [8]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The ongoing trade tensions could accelerate the trend of regionalizing global supply chains, resulting in higher compliance costs for multinational companies [8]. - The situation is characterized as a high-stakes negotiation, with the outcome dependent on the EU's ability to withstand US pressure and maintain its trade principles [8]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce due to factors such as increased central bank gold purchases and a potential crisis of confidence in the US dollar [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for financial institutions to rethink their operational models in light of three major changes: functional positioning, digital intelligence, and the era of existing stock. It advocates for a customer-centric "Good Standard System" to reshape credit risk control logic and promote high-quality development in the financial sector, providing a practical model for China's financial system [1]. Group 1: Challenges of Traditional Credit Risk Control Models - Traditional credit risk control models rely heavily on financial indicators and collateral guarantees, which limits their effectiveness in risk assessment. This approach often leads to a preference for clients with sufficient collateral, resulting in various limitations such as the lagging nature of financial data and the inability to adapt to market fluctuations [3]. - The reliance on static financial metrics can lead to "adverse selection" and "moral hazard," where financial institutions may lend to clients with poor credit conditions, increasing the risk of non-performing loans [3]. Group 2: Imbalance in Financial Resource Allocation - Financial institutions tend to favor clients with strong financial standings, leading to a "Pareto principle" resource allocation where a majority of financial resources are concentrated in a few sectors, neglecting the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and private enterprises [5]. - This imbalance results in significant challenges for the real economy, as many SMEs face difficulties in obtaining financing, which hampers their growth and the overall transformation of the economy [5]. Group 3: Lack of a Social Value Evaluation System - The absence of a comprehensive social value evaluation system hinders financial institutions from effectively assessing clients' social contributions, which could guide resource allocation towards more socially responsible areas [6]. - Overemphasis on short-term profits can lead to financial risks and social issues, as institutions may invest in high-risk areas without considering their social responsibilities [6]. Group 4: Constructing the "Good Standard System" - To address these challenges, there is a need to reconstruct the positioning and value of finance, prioritizing functionality over profitability. This involves moving away from traditional financial metrics and developing a more holistic financial evaluation system that incorporates social value [8]. - The new system should assess clients based on their social responsibility, environmental contributions, and governance, rather than solely on financial status [10]. Group 5: Quantifying Customer Goodness Levels - The "Good Standard System" can be developed by creating a negative list for undesirable behaviors and a scoring system for positive contributions. This dual scoring approach will help categorize clients into different "goodness" levels, influencing their credit ratings and access to financial resources [11]. - Higher-rated clients may receive benefits such as relaxed credit conditions and preferential treatment, while lower-rated clients will face stricter controls and potential denial of new credit [11].

特朗普的关税策略：市场阻力或只是"噪声" 自2025年1月20日上任以来，美国总统特朗普通过一系列新的关税措施重燃贸易紧张局势。他对多种美 国进口产品征收关税，包括钢铁和铝，并提出"对等关税"的概念，旨在与其他国家对美国商品征收的关 税相匹配。尽管特朗普的关税策略并不新鲜，但其对金融市场和经济的影响比焦点报道所引发的轰动要 微妙得多。 关税措施影响 特朗普的"对等关税"导致美国进口商品的关税高于预期，这是基于特朗普政府对特定国家对美国商品实 施的关税和非关税壁垒的估计。亚洲国家普遍被针对性征收更高关税，欧盟（20%）和日本（24%）也 面临高关税率。依据《美墨加协定》，加拿大和墨西哥似可获得豁免，不过之前宣布的关税仍然有效。 而针对不同国家和地区采取不同关税税率的方案一经公布，各贸易伙伴可能会相继与美国开展双边磋 商。 关税本身会减慢增长并推高通胀，这是意料之内的事情。而根据国际货币基金组织及美国联邦贸易委员 会的估算，如果上述关税措施全面实施并发生传导效应，则关税总额可能占美国GDP的2%以上，对美 国企业和消费者来说是一笔沉重的负担，它还可能使美国消费者通胀增加近2%，并可能对国内生产总 值增长造成1%～ ...

主题讨论九 人工智能时代下的数字金融 中国证券监督管理委员会原主席 5月17日-18日 2025清华五道口全球金融论坛 于深圳盛大召开 汇聚国内外金融界 领袖、学者及行业精英 浓缩思维干货 定位思维坐标 主题九：人工智能时代下的数字金融 主题十：全球资本市场展望与发展 这两场的嘉宾金句干货已打包完毕 快查收↓↓↓ 肖钢 张健华 清华大学五道口金融学院 金融发展与监管科技研究中心主任 莫万贵 中国人民银行金融研究所副所长 李振华 蚂蚁集团研究院院长 张鹏 北京智谱华章科技股份有限公司CEO 王正位 全球资本市场展望与发展 梁定邦 香港执业资深大律师 香港证券及期货事务监察委员会前主席 张慎峰 清华大学五道口金融学院副院长、副教授 主题讨论十 中国国际贸易促进委员会原副会长 聂庆平 中国证券金融股份有限公司原董事长 邓肯・邦菲尔德 国家主权财富基金国际论坛CEO 编辑丨兰银帆 来源丨清华五道口 审核 | 王晗 王娴 清华大学国家金融研究院副院长 清华大学五道口金融学院上市公司研究中心主任 ...

以下文章来源于太辉研究 ，作者沈建光、朱太辉 太辉研究 . 本平台主要发布朱太辉博士关于金融发展与宏观经济、金融科技与数字经济、金融监管与货币政策等领域的研究观点。所发成果均为个 人学术观点，与任何单位无关！ 文/京东集团首席经济学家 沈建光 ，京东集团高级研究总监 朱太辉 2025年以来，稳定币的市场规模节节攀升，比特币价格一度突破10万美 元，去中心化金融业态不断丰富，全球加密货币市场步入了规范创新和快 速发展期。 更为重要的是，加密货币与金融体系展现出了全面融合发展的趋势，稳定 币与支付体系的融合创新快速推广，银行机构积极拓展加密货币服务、资 本市场与加密市场融合全方位推进。 在 此过程中，美国引 领全球主要 国家加快 制定稳 定 币和加 密货币监 管 法 规、加大对比特币等加密货币的战略储备投资等，加快了加密货币的正规 化、大众化发展，也为加密货币与金融体系的融合创新提供了政策保障。 展望未来，稳定币、加密货币与传统金融体系的融合发展趋势难以逆转， 其中稳定币在重塑全球支付体系、加密货币在升级全球金融基础性设施、 代币化在改造资产交易结算体系方面的表现，值得重点关注。 趋势一：稳定币与支付体系的融合创 ...

2025年5月17日-18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市成功召开，本届论坛以"共享未来：构建开 放包容的经济与金融体系"为主题。18日下午，主题论坛十二"普惠金融促进包容共进"顺利举办。 图为会议现场 主题会议以圆桌讨论形式展开，全国社会保障基金理事会原副理事长、深圳市金融稳定发展研究院理事 长王忠民，老挝人民民主共和国银行副行长苏里斯·萨姆努冯，中国人民银行信贷市场司司长彭立峰， AFI副首席执行官兼首席运营官徐淑贤四位嘉宾围绕论坛主题展开讨论，普惠金融联盟政策管理负责人 阿里·基亚祖丁·穆罕默德主持会议。 王忠民 全国社会保障基金理事会原副理事长 深圳市金融稳定发展研究院理事长 王忠民指出，共同发展强调宏观与微观经济主体（如企业、家庭）在普惠与共融中实现 利益最大化。在人工智能时代，这一逻辑体现在三大场景：一是开源技术降低了社会创 新成本；二是云服务共享使中小企业零成本接入，提升了整体收益；三是数字资产收购 与整合创造了"空能生妙有"的价值跃升。此外，普惠金融与金融稳定的协同需技术创新 支撑：区块链保障数据安全，AI监管沙盒平衡创新与风险，例如数字支付赋能家庭和小 微企业的信贷服务。中国社保基 ...

2025年5月17-18日，"共享未来：构建开放包容的经济与金融体系"2025年清华五道口全球金融论坛在广 东省深圳市成功召开。18日下午，主题讨论十三"金融助力文化和旅游业成为支柱产业"顺利举办。 图为圆桌讨论现场 主题会议以圆桌讨论形式展开，中国人民银行原副行长李东荣，世界知识产权组织中国办事处主任刘 华，中国文化产业投资母基金管理有限公司总经理于春玲，中国动漫集团党委副书记、总经理刘鹏， 腾讯云副总裁、腾讯智慧文旅负责人方腾飞围绕金融赋能文化和旅游业展开讨论。清华大学五道口金 融学院文创金融研究中心主任赵岑主持会议。 赵岑 清华大学五道口金融学院文创金融研究中心主任 赵岑表示，把文化旅游业培育成为支柱产业这一重大战略定位的提出，充分地彰显了党 中央的战略思考和战略魄力，提振了市场信心。赵岑指出，从数据来看，我国文化和旅 游业迎开门红。春节假期、"五一"假期，全国国内出游人次和国内游客出游总花费均保 持增长。今年一季度，全国规模以上文化与旅游类企业收入增长6.2%，产业智能化、 数字化发展趋势明显。今年1-4月，文化和旅游业投融资活动出现双回升，反映出这一 领域巨大的增长潜力。赵岑认为，在文化和旅游业发展 ...