Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, aiming for an average GDP growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period, with specific targets of around 5% for 2026-2027 and 4.5-5% for 2028-2030, indicating a need for an expansionary and proactive policy stance [2][3][5]. Economic Growth Targets - Historical data shows that previous five-year plans often set GDP growth targets that were exceeded, with average growth rates of 9.8% and 11.3% during the "10th" and "11th" plans, respectively, while the "14th" plan aimed for a reasonable range [4]. - The potential GDP growth for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.8% and 4.9%, with a specific focus on achieving an average of 4.84% during this period [6]. Policy Recommendations - The central government is advised to increase leverage and implement more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, including maintaining a budget deficit rate around 4% and increasing special bond issuance [8]. - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on direct financial support for residents, particularly in service sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as lowering mortgage rates [9]. Long-term Economic Goals - By 2035, the goal is to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating an average annual growth rate of 4.17% during the "15th" and "16th" plans, which reflects a baseline target rather than an aspirational goal [7]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a higher growth rate of over 4.7% to stabilize social expectations and boost market confidence, thereby enhancing investment and consumption [7].

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 近期人民币汇率涨势明显，离岸人民币（CNH） 11月25日 报 7 .0 829 元 （单日涨 0. 3%），11月2 7日盘中最高升至7. 0653 ， 逼近 202 4年10月9 日高点。人民币近期 走强主要受内外因素共同推动，短期有望延续偏强 态势，对资本市场尤其是 A股和港股形成显著利好。 人民币近期 走强 主要 原因 外部环境改善 。 美元持续走弱， 2025年美元指数已累计下跌超7%，美联储降息预期升温 ， 12月降息概率升至 8 0%以上，削弱美元吸引力 。 中美利差 收窄， 美联储降息频率高于中国央行，中美 10年期国债收益率利差缩小，提升人民币资产性价比。 内部支撑强化 。 我国 经济韧性凸显， 我国 出口超预期增长 ， 如四季度结汇需求激增 ， 政策工具箱丰富， 这 夯实 了人民币 汇率基础 。 政策主动引 导， 我国 央行通过中间价持续释放升值信号，并收紧离岸流动性抑制做空， 这 稳定 了 市场预期。 此外， 外资增配人民币资产 。 国际投行集体 （ 如高盛、瑞银等 ） 唱多 A股，科技股吸引力增强，跨境资金回流中国资本市场加速，也提振了人民币汇 率。 人民币 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the current state of the Chinese stock market, particularly the significance of the 4000-point level, which is seen as both an opportunity and a challenge. Experts debate whether this level is a starting point or a peak, and the need for structural reforms to ensure sustainable growth in the capital market is emphasized [2][3][4]. Group 2 - The article outlines that the A-share market has entered a structural bull market driven by policies and capital, with a potential increase in market capitalization to GDP ratio from 60% to 100% over the next 5-10 years. Key trends include optimizing the funding structure, re-evaluating blue-chip values, and a shift of household wealth from real estate to equities [3][4]. - The foundation for a "slow bull" market is identified as the continuous growth of corporate profits, which requires expanding consumer demand, accelerating the elimination of underperforming companies, and increasing mergers and acquisitions. The challenges posed by the ongoing real estate downturn are acknowledged [4][5]. - The article highlights the need for significant reforms in the capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on restructuring the ecosystem to prioritize investor protection over the interests of issuers. This includes reforming the supply side and enhancing the funding side to attract larger institutional investors [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for qualitative and effective economic growth, promoting comprehensive human development and common prosperity, ensuring decisive progress towards socialist modernization [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The plan highlights the importance of forming an economic development model driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth, which is a strategic decision for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][10]. - A significant focus is placed on improving the income distribution system to support a consumption-driven growth model, which is crucial for achieving modernization in the Chinese context [3][11]. - The plan sets a target for per capita GDP to reach approximately $23,000 by 2035, requiring an average nominal growth of around 5% annually over the next decade [4]. Group 2: Principles for Economic and Social Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines six essential principles for economic and social development, including the necessity of the Party's comprehensive leadership, which is fundamental for achieving modernization [7][8]. - Emphasizing a people-centered approach, the plan aims to meet the growing needs of the populace while expanding development opportunities [7]. - High-quality development is identified as the primary task, focusing on innovation-driven growth and enhancing domestic consumption [8]. Group 3: Income Distribution and Employment - The plan stresses the importance of fair income distribution and increasing residents' income as a prerequisite for expanding consumption and meeting the people's needs [11][12]. - New policies are proposed to create an employment-friendly development model, ensuring that income growth aligns with economic growth [11]. - The introduction of a "Rural and Urban Residents' Income Increase Plan" is highlighted as a significant initiative to enhance the financial well-being of the population [12].

文/ 国家发展改革委主任 郑栅洁 国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在人民日报发表署名文章《坚持扩大内需这个 战略基点（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》。郑栅洁表示，"十五 五"时期，我国扩大内需机遇和挑战都有新的发展变化，总体上机遇大于 挑战。要准确把握国内市场发展规律，充分发挥内需对经济发展的支撑作 用，统筹稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，进一步做强国内大循环，有 效应对外部冲击挑战，推动我国经济平稳健康可持续发展。 习近平总书记强调，坚定实施扩大内需战略，构建完整的内需体系，关系我国长远发展和长治久安。党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民 经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确指出，坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内大循环内生动力和 可靠性。"十五五"时期，我们要持续扩大内需，进一步做强国内大循环，为加快构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展提供强有力的保障。 总的看，在重大政策、重大项目、重大工程等的带动下，我国内需规模持续扩大、质量持续提升、国际影响力持续增强，充分彰显了我国经济基础稳、优 势多、韧性强、潜能大，体现了长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势。党的十八大以来特别 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of US-China geopolitical competition on global capital markets, highlighting the contrasting roles of the US as a mature stock market and China as an emerging market [3][7]. - The US initiated a trade war and tariff battle, which has led to substantial declines in the US stock market, particularly affecting major technology stocks [5][6]. - The TACO trading strategy emerged as a response to the cyclical nature of Trump's tariff threats, allowing investors to buy during market panic and sell when policies soften [5]. Group 2 - China has implemented strong countermeasures in response to the US's trade actions, including a series of measures to stabilize its capital market, such as providing sufficient re-lending support from the central bank [6]. - The article outlines the historical context of financial crises triggered by US trade wars in other countries, emphasizing that only China has effectively countered the US's trade aggression [6]. - The US financial market faces severe challenges, including extensive money printing by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a balance sheet of $9 trillion due to quantitative easing [9]. Group 3 - The US has experienced a significant increase in fiscal deficits and national debt since 2008, with the national debt reaching approximately $37 trillion by September 2025 [10]. - The article notes that the US capital market is overvalued, with the overall market P/E ratio exceeding 20, and specific indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing even higher ratios, indicating potential risks for a market correction [11]. Group 4 - China's stock market is evolving towards long-term and value investing, with a series of measures introduced to boost market confidence and stabilize valuations [12]. - The article categorizes China's initiatives into three phases: initial measures to boost market activity, quantitative support for high-quality economic development, and encouraging state-owned enterprises to invest in blue-chip stocks [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of sustainable development from a strategic concept to a critical measure for high-quality economic growth in China, particularly highlighting 2025 as a pivotal year for deepening practical implementation of sustainability initiatives [3]. Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The Chinese government has introduced several policies, including the "Central Enterprise ESG Special Action Guidelines (2025)" and the "Management Measures for Information Disclosure of Listed Companies," mandating the integration of sustainable development into corporate governance and moving from optional to standardized disclosure of non-financial information [3]. - Financial institutions are evolving from advocates of sustainability to key actors, embedding ESG principles into their strategies and operations, and promoting green finance and responsible investment practices [3]. Group 2: Case Collection Initiative - Tsinghua Financial Review has launched a "2025 Sustainable Development Typical Case Collection" to create a high-level platform for sharing best practices in green finance and sustainability governance, aiming to establish industry benchmarks and facilitate experience sharing [4]. - The collection targets banks, insurance companies, securities firms, asset management institutions, and listed companies, encouraging submissions of innovative and impactful sustainability practices [6]. Group 3: Submission Themes and Requirements - The case collection focuses on three main dimensions: climate change response, social contributions, and corporate governance, with specific topics including pollution control, waste management, biodiversity protection, and supply chain safety [7]. - Submissions must reflect the positive efforts of financial institutions and listed companies in sustainability, with a requirement for authenticity and a good reputation, and should provide comprehensive data and outcomes [8][9].

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 12 月 5 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 1 位读者获赠本期推 荐好书！ 内容简介 读懂 " 十五五 " 重大任务、关键路径和发展机遇， 精准把握当下和未来 "十五五"时期是中国迈向第二个百年奋斗目标、基本实现社会主义现代化的 战略决胜期。科学谋划好"十五五"规划，对于指导未来五年乃至更长时间的 经济社会发展具有重要意义。 本书由张军扩、蔡昉、朱克力等权威经济学家领衔，联合多位政策制定者、智库 学者与行业专家，聚焦"十五五"时期中国经济发展的核心命题，从宏观形势与经 济运行、新质生产力与高质量发展、数智赋能与未来产业、全面深化改革与制度 创新、财政金融与政策转型、"反内卷"与区域协调发展、投资于人与民生服务七 大维度展开系统分析，全面阐述这一时期的发展理念、指导方针、主要目标和战 略布局。 《读懂"十五五"：高质量发展新征程》 张军扩 蔡昉 朱克力 等著 中信出版集团 出版 通过理论解读、政策研判与案例剖析，本书揭示了中国经济转型的底层逻辑与未 来机遇，为政府与企业提供前瞻性指引，助力实现高质量发展与民生福祉的协同 提升，帮助读者把握宏观大势，科学制定决策。 作者简介 张军扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revised "Enforcement Guidelines for Commercial Bank Charging Behavior" by the State Administration for Market Regulation aims to address and regulate improper charging practices by commercial banks, particularly in areas such as syndicate loans, loan commitments, electronic banking, and financial advisory services, thereby reducing financing costs for enterprises and enhancing the business environment [2][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Guidelines Purpose - The guidelines are formulated based on various laws and regulations, including the Price Law and the Regulations on Administrative Penalties for Price Violations, to optimize the business environment and alleviate financing difficulties [4]. Section 2: Definition of Charges - Charges refer to fees collected by commercial banks for services provided, which may occur before, during, or after the service period [5]. Section 3: Enforcement Responsibilities - Market regulatory authorities at or above the county level are responsible for enforcing these guidelines and ensuring compliance by commercial banks [7][8]. Section 4: Compliance and Internal Management - Commercial banks must adhere to government pricing guidelines and ensure that their charging practices are transparent and aligned with actual service content [10][12]. Section 5: Prohibited Charging Practices - Specific prohibited practices include fictitious syndicate loan charges, charging commitment fees while collecting loan interest, and mandatory issuance of guarantees for fees [2][12]. Section 6: Customer Treatment - Commercial banks are required to treat private enterprises equally in their charging practices and must clearly display service items, content, and fees in their business premises [15][17]. Section 7: Service Quality and Transparency - Banks must provide substantial services corresponding to the fees charged and ensure that any discounts or promotional measures are communicated effectively to customers [16][17]. Section 8: Violations and Penalties - The guidelines outline various scenarios that constitute violations, including unauthorized charges exceeding government-set prices and failure to provide agreed-upon services [18][20]. Section 9: Internal Management and Improvement - Banks are encouraged to improve internal management practices to prevent violations, including clear service agreements and maintaining comprehensive service records [26][27]. Section 10: Implementation Date - The guidelines are effective immediately upon issuance [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of various insurance companies to a severe fire incident in Hong Kong, highlighting the importance of insurance in disaster recovery and urban safety [2][5]. Insurance Coverage Details - China Taiping Insurance (Hong Kong) provided comprehensive property insurance for the affected estate, with a total compensation cap of 2 billion HKD [3][4]. - The insurance includes coverage for public areas and public liability insurance, with specific compensation limits: 10 million HKD for personal injury per incident and 20 million HKD for third-party liability [3][4]. Emergency Response by Insurance Companies - Multiple insurance companies, including China Life (Overseas) and Ping An Life, activated emergency claims procedures to ensure rapid support for affected families [5]. - Ping An announced the establishment of emergency response teams and initiated a green channel for customer service to facilitate claims [5]. Urban Safety and Insurance Role - The article emphasizes the need for enhanced urban safety and risk prevention measures, positioning insurance as a critical component in disaster recovery and urban resilience [5][6]. - It advocates for comprehensive insurance coverage for residential and commercial buildings, alongside improved claims processes to better support disaster recovery efforts [6]. Future Directions for Insurance in Urban Governance - The article calls for deeper integration of insurance mechanisms into urban governance and planning, encouraging innovation in insurance products and services to extend beyond post-disaster compensation to proactive risk management [6].