Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing weakening of the US dollar, which has fallen below the critical level of 100, and its implications for global asset allocation, particularly in Asia [3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Global Impact - The US dollar is in a weak cycle due to the Federal Reserve's policy shifts, increasing fiscal deficits, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3]. - There have been five instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar this year, indicating deepening economic contradictions in the US [3]. - Asian currencies are experiencing collective appreciation, with the Japanese yen rising by 10%, the New Taiwan dollar by 9%, and other major Asian currencies increasing by 3%-7% [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar has seen significant liquidity injections from the Monetary Authority, with interbank borrowing rates dropping from 4% to 0.6%, encouraging leveraged investments in stocks and real estate [5]. - The influx of talent is evident as local universities expand enrollment, with the University of Hong Kong's business school increasing its master's program from 300 to 5,000 students annually [5]. - The IPO market in Hong Kong is recovering, with 70 new listings in Q1 2023, and expectations for the total IPO scale to exceed HKD 400 billion for the year [7]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio remains high at 29, with tech giants at historical valuation premiums, suggesting a need to reduce exposure to US equities [9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield has rebounded to 4.5%, with significant rollover pressures from maturing debt, leading to a recommendation to avoid short-term volatility risks in US Treasuries [9]. - Japanese assets are being revalued, with a 60% increase in core Tokyo property prices over three years, and a high employment rate among graduates attracting middle-class families [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - In the current transition period, the recommended asset allocation includes 15% in insurance products, 5.2% yield Asian dollar bonds, and a focus on equities with 40% in Hong Kong stocks, 25% in Japanese stocks, and 20% in high-dividend A-shares [11]. - Alternative assets should include 10% in gold and 5% in Bitcoin, with a strategy to increase holdings in the Chinese yuan and yen while reducing US dollar exposure to below 30% [11].

当地时间5月29日，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前作 出的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 联邦巡回上诉法院在裁决书中指出，美国政府的请求已获批准，在本法院审议相关动议文件期间，美国 国际贸易法院在这些案件中作出的判决和永久性禁令将暂时中止，直至另行通知。 特朗普政府早些时候向该上诉法院表示，如果禁止关税执行的裁决不能被迅速暂停，政府将最早于5月 30日向最高法院寻求紧急帮助。 文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 美国关税问题再度反转，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求， 暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前作出的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧 急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。这导致先前因为裁 定特朗普越权而上升的市场风险偏好再度回落。 美国联邦巡回上诉法院"叫停"美国国际贸易法院的裁决 特朗普政府关税政策的命运真可谓"一波三折"，先是被美国国际贸易法院的裁决"叫停"，特朗普政府对 此很快提起上诉，过了一天上诉法院又"叫停"了美国国际贸易法院的裁决。 4月以来，特朗普政府对各国极限施压并不断反复，其目的在于通过关税手段 ...

文/清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员 孙长忠 5 月 28日美联储公布了本月货币政策会议纪要。这是对等关税政策宣布 实施一个半月后第一份会议纪要，以正式文件形式反映了美联储官员对形 势变化的看法，凸显了美联储当前面临的政策困境，讨论了应对策略，强 化了会议声明和美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会的政策立场。 美联储面临的困境 继3月会议纪要后，"不确定性"仍是本次纪要的关键词。上次纪要全篇提及"不确定性"21次，本次纪要 是19次，特别是在委员会评估经济展望时称"迄今为止宣布的加征关税幅度和范围远超他们之前预期"， 之后在讨论关税政策变化及其经济影响时每一句都强调"不确定性""相当大的不确定性""显著不确定 性""总之是他们经济展望的不确定性异常高"。正是这种不确定性使美联储目前面临着政策困境。 根据会议纪要，美联储工作人员对今明两年美国实际GDP增长的预测低于3月会议时的预测，因为已公 布的贸易政策对实际经济活动的拖累比工作人员此前预测更大，还会导致生产率增长放缓，降低未来几 年潜在GDP增长。同时劳动力市场将显著疲软，失业率到今年底将高于工作人员估计的自然失业率并持 续到2027年。 工作人员的通胀预测高于3月， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current consumption market in China is showing enhanced vitality and heat, but there are still constraints to sustained improvement. Future policies should better coordinate the relationship between benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, supply innovation and demand upgrading, as well as current and long-term considerations to effectively expand consumption [1]. Group 1: Consumption Characteristics - The characteristics of consumption in China are marked by rapid growth, new products, new business formats, and new scenarios [2]. - Consumption is maintaining a moderate growth trend, with significant vitality in the market. Key features include rapid growth in service consumption, the emergence of new products and business models, and the rise of consumption in county areas [3]. Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption is experiencing good growth, driven by policies that promote service consumption and the expansion of consumption scenarios. The focus is shifting from separate development of categories like dining and tourism to integrated and multi-faceted development [4]. - In 2024, China's service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 3 percentage points. Per capita spending on services is projected to increase by 7.4%, accounting for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Group 3: New Products and Business Models - New technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence are accelerating consumption innovation, leading to rapid development of new products, business formats, and scenarios. The smart home market is expected to reach 780 billion yuan in 2024, with smartphone shipments projected at approximately 286 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6]. - Online retail is also thriving, with a 6.5% growth in physical goods online retail expected in 2024, outpacing the overall retail growth by 3 percentage points. Live streaming and instant retail sales are showing strong growth, with sales increasing by 19.1% and 13.8% respectively in the first three quarters of 2024 [6]. Group 4: County-Level Consumption - Since 2023, consumption in county areas, particularly in lower-tier cities and rural regions, has become more active. The coverage of county-level tourist attractions has increased significantly, with a rise from 73% in 2012 to 93% in 2023 [7]. - Travel orders from lower-tier cities are expected to grow by nearly 20% in 2024, with outbound travel ticket purchases from residents in third-tier cities and below accounting for over 30% of the total, more than doubling from the previous year [7]. Group 5: New Consumer Groups - The influx of residents from Hong Kong and Macau into mainland cities is creating new consumption dynamics. In 2024, the number of Hong Kong residents traveling north is expected to reach 81.91 million, with total spending exceeding 55.7 billion yuan, both up over 50% from the previous year [8]. - The optimization of visa-free policies has led to a significant increase in inbound tourism, with the number of eligible individuals rising by 113.5% year-on-year in 2024. The diversity of tourist sources and the appeal of lesser-known destinations are also increasing [8].

文 / 苏商银行特约研究员 薛洪言 2 0 25年5月20日，新一轮降息政策落地，1年期和5年期LPR均下调10个 BP。大行存款利率同步调降，2年期及以下定期存款利率下调15个BP，3 年 和 5 年 期 存 款 利 率 下 调 25个 BP 。 纵观 本 次降 息， 存 款降 息 幅 度 大 于 贷 款，且存款呈现出"期限越长，调降幅度越大"的特点。非对称降息旨在减 弱存款定期化、长期化趋势，助力银行控制负债成本、维持息差水平。 值 得 注 意 的 是 ， 长 期 限 存款 利 率 的 深度 调整 叠 加仍 将 持 续 降 息 的 市 场 预 期 ， 或 将 打 破 居 民 资 产 配置 的 稳 态 平衡 ，驱 动 储蓄 资 金 加 速 迁 徙 。 截 至 2 0 25年4月末，我国储蓄存款余额高达1 5 9万亿元，迁移空间巨大。存款 搬家驱动财富管理市场扩容，叠加养老金、险资等长期资金入市的制度红 利，资本市场有望获得持续活水注入，结构性长牛行情更具想象空间。 降息驱动存款搬家：资金"脱媒"趋势加速 从常识来看，当1年期存款利率低于1%时，存款的"保值增值"属性将相对弱化，居民对投资收益的敏感 度显著提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for May 2025 show a slight recovery, with the BCI reading at 50.3, indicating stabilization in the economy due to a combination of financial policies and tariff reductions, although the trend still requires consolidation [1][2][18]. Economic Indicators - The BCI reading for May 2025 is 50.3, up 0.2 points from the previous value, reflecting a recovery in economic conditions since the "9·24" event [2]. - The BCI readings from October 2024 to May 2025 show fluctuations: 46.0 in September 2024, rising to 50.5 in November 2024, then dipping to 48.3 in December 2024, and reaching 54.8 in March 2025 before a slight decline to 50.1 in April 2025 [2]. Microeconomic Conditions - The microeconomic indicators show mixed results: improvements in financing environment, employment, and consumer price expectations, while declines are noted in intermediate goods price expectations, profit expectations, and investment expectations [4]. - The financing environment index improved to 49.1 in April, up from 48.0, indicating a better financing situation influenced by recent financial policies [4]. Employment Trends - Employment rebounded significantly in May, with the enterprise hiring index rising by 1.9 points, suggesting a high elasticity of employment in the external demand supply chain [9]. - The report estimates that foreign trade directly and indirectly supports around 170 million jobs, accounting for over 20% of total employment in the country [9]. Price Indicators - There is a divergence in price indicators: the consumer price expectation index is rising, while the intermediate goods price expectation index is declining, indicating pressure on industrial prices despite improvements in consumer prices [12]. - The profit expectation index continues to decline, reflecting ongoing pressure from low industrial prices, with PPI showing negative growth from January to April 2025 [14]. Investment Sentiment - The enterprise investment expectation index is declining, attributed to uncertainties in external environments and high real interest rates [15]. - Recommendations include lowering nominal interest rates and increasing government investment to stimulate corporate investment [15][16]. Conclusion - The economic situation in May shows improvement compared to April, but the trend needs further consolidation, with key factors such as US-China trade negotiations and local government project accelerations being crucial for future pricing [17][18].

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 近期美联储是否应该降息？对此美国的金融官员们观点不一。相比之下， 华尔街的机构们对于降息的态度更为乐观。回溯2 0 24年9月美联储启动本 轮降息周期时，预期是2025年将降息100个基点，而截至5月底美联储依 旧按兵不动，因为当时市场没能较好预估"特朗普"这个变量。 美联储近期是否应该降息？ 认为谨慎降息的阵营里，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Kashkari）近日在东京接受采访时表 示，美国当下贸易与移民政策的重大转变，正为美联储在9月前的利率调整制造诸多不确定性。 目前，特朗普政府正与多国进行关税谈判，这一进程极大地干扰了经济走向，也让美联储的决策 变得艰难。 他表示，一切皆有可能，但情况能否在9月之前足够明朗，还是个未知数。我们必须观察数据走 向，同时关注谈判进展。若美国和其他国家在未来几个月内达成贸易协议，这应该能提供我们所 寻求的清晰度。 卡什卡利此番言论，明确表明美联储并不急于在7月就开启降息周期。他指出，特朗普政府正推 动的关税改革及其带来的通胀预期，使美联储内部对利率政策保持极为谨慎的态度。在通胀预期 未明朗、国际谈判未达成前，美联储将维持当前高利率状态不变。 而 ...

一方面，从规模和体量上来看，养老产品和服务的供给仍需扩充。中国式现代化是人口规模巨大 的现代化，老年人口规模同样巨大。我国的人口老龄化具有基数大、增速快等突出特征，因此对 于养老产品和服务的需求规模是巨大的，且随着人口老龄化程度的不断加深，需求还在不断快速 增长，但当前各类养老产品和服务资源未能跟得上老龄化背景下老年人口规模及其需求的增长。 另一方面，从供需匹配的结构上来看，当前养老产品和服务供给的质量有待进一步提升。人口规 模巨大还意味着养老需求的多元化、分层化，同时也带来了养老需求多元与供给方式单一之间的 突出矛盾。随着经济社会发展和人民生活质量的提高，老年人对养老的需求从传统的生存依赖型 转向更高质量的追求，特别对老年健康等给予了更高的期待，但相对应的是，目前我国医养结合 等新型社会化养老产品和服务的供给却十分不足。 养老产品和服务供给体系发展滞后的原因包括以下三个方面：第一，相对发达国家而言，我国进 入老龄社会的时间短、速度快，全社会的准备不足。第二，供给主体对老年人和备老群体的需求 识别不准。市场主体的经营决策通常以经营盈利为导向，从投资收益角度进行的养老产品和服务 供给与老年人的实际需求是相偏离的 ...

文 / 全国政协委员、全国政协经济委员会委员，中泰证券股份有限公司董事、总 经理 冯艺东 规范的量化交易对市场涨跌走势并无主观偏好，对增强市场流动性和降低 市场波动性具有一定积极作用。本文从量化交易的定义与发展历程出发， 结合其对市场的正面与负面影响，对比分析国际监管经验，提出以分类监 管、风险监测、信息披露为核心的制度优化建议，旨在推动量化交易在规 范中实现高质量发展，进一步平衡市场效率与公平。 量化交易的发展历程 中国量化投资发展历经二十年政策演进与技术突破的双重驱动。2005年前后，首批量化基金引入海外动 量策略、趋势跟踪等模型，但受限于数据体系缺失和市场基础薄弱，发展相对缓慢。2010年前后，沪深 股指期货上市，丰富了风险对冲工具，丰富了量化策略空间。随后，证监会发布《期货市场异常交易监 控指引》《程序化交易认定指导意见》等制度框架，量化投资获得规范发展空间。此时互联网与大数据 技术发展迅速，程序化交易开始借助计算机算力不断突破，多样的交易策略开始相继发展。 2015年行业迎来关键转折，监管层出台《证券期货市场程序化交易管理办法》构建申报核查、指令审核 等全流程监管体系，七大证券、期货交易所同步推出实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing threats posed by the U.S. to the international financial system, particularly following the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, which undermines the credibility of the U.S. and the Western-dominated financial system. This may lead to the fragmentation of the international monetary system and the potential formation of currency blocs based on economic and geopolitical factors, promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and regional financial cooperation in East Asia [2][16][21]. Group 1: International Monetary System Dynamics - The U.S. has maintained its economic prosperity by borrowing from the world, creating a cycle where other countries accumulate U.S. dollar assets, leading to a situation where the U.S. can run persistent trade deficits [4][6]. - The U.S. has become a net debtor since 1985, with overseas net liabilities exceeding $18 trillion by the end of 2021, representing over 70% of its GDP, indicating a growing dependency on foreign capital [9][10]. - The global foreign exchange reserves have increased significantly, from $33 billion in 1969 to $13 trillion by the end of 2021, with U.S. dollar reserves accounting for $7 trillion, highlighting the strong demand for the dollar as a reserve currency [10]. Group 2: Financial Weaponization and Its Implications - The freezing of Russian reserves has fundamentally altered the rules of international finance, raising concerns about the reliability of the U.S. as a custodian of global financial stability [15][16]. - The concept of financial weaponization poses a new risk to countries holding U.S. dollar reserves, as it undermines trust in the U.S. financial system and could lead to a reevaluation of reserve currency holdings by other nations [15][20]. Group 3: Regional Financial Cooperation and Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi has gained momentum due to the weaponization of the dollar, with the Chinese government expected to facilitate this process, although it will be gradual [18][21]. - East Asian countries are encouraged to enhance regional financial cooperation, particularly through frameworks like the Chiang Mai Initiative, to mitigate the impacts of global financial instability [19][21].